Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    46 36 303 263  0.015 40.492   11  0.124   11  0.125   11  0.173   11 0.5156    1  1.292    2  0.434   21 -0.089
LIGHTNING      45 37 291 268  0.009 40.422   12  0.091   12  0.100   12  0.096   12 0.5120    2  1.289    3  0.353   22 -0.162
AVALANCHE      50 32 304 254 -0.005 39.758    7  0.213    7  0.208    9  0.191    7 0.5257    3  1.284    1  0.443   20 -0.060
DEVILS         38 44 264 283  0.002 40.530   24 -0.064   24 -0.069   24 -0.094   22 0.4914    4  1.274   11  0.144   29 -0.333
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.010 40.598   16 -0.001   16  0.005   16  0.002   16 0.5004    5  1.238    9  0.192   23 -0.189
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.014 40.926   25 -0.079   25 -0.083   25 -0.103   25 0.4892    6  1.201   17  0.039   27 -0.245
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.004 40.598   23 -0.062   22 -0.068   23 -0.088   23 0.4913    7  1.195   16  0.047   26 -0.222
COYOTES        36 46 256 273  0.002 40.484   26 -0.115   26 -0.116   21 -0.061   26 0.4858    8  1.189   13  0.067   24 -0.189
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.010 41.083   29 -0.317   29 -0.322   29 -0.269   29 0.4597    9  1.184   25 -0.148   31 -0.389
STARS          52 30 298 234 -0.001 39.840    4  0.257    4  0.259    4  0.237    3 0.5323   10  1.173    4  0.343    9  0.130
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS         49 33 294 237 -0.003 39.793    8  0.194    8  0.187    7  0.220    8 0.5227   11  1.171    5  0.324   10  0.117
PREDATORS      47 35 269 248 -0.002 40.033   10  0.139   10  0.140   13  0.095   10 0.5172   12  1.141   10  0.162   16  0.029
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.003 40.422   20 -0.040   20 -0.043   18 -0.020   19 0.4945   13  1.113   19  0.011   19 -0.052
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 45 37 267 245 -0.014 39.684   13  0.070   13  0.082   14  0.063   13 0.5101   14  1.109   12  0.089   14  0.036
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.014 41.067   28 -0.249   28 -0.248   28 -0.196   28 0.4687   15  1.105   27 -0.174   25 -0.217
RANGERS        55 27 282 229 -0.000 39.915    1  0.321    1  0.331    6  0.231    1 0.5408   16  1.096    6  0.242    7  0.221
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.005 40.369   22 -0.060   23 -0.068   15  0.035   24 0.4913   17  1.074   18  0.019   13  0.051
CANUCKS        50 32 278 223 -0.002 39.776    6  0.215    6  0.209    3  0.237    6 0.5257   18  1.062    8  0.206    6  0.267
ISLANDERS      39 43 246 263  0.011 40.759   18 -0.035   18 -0.037   19 -0.057   18 0.4951   19  1.055   23 -0.096   18 -0.018
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.013 40.649   30 -0.334   30 -0.336   30 -0.403   30 0.4579   20  1.054   30 -0.444   30 -0.363
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.009 40.956   32 -0.540   32 -0.538   32 -0.592   32 0.4347   21  1.043   31 -0.645   32 -0.539
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.009 40.695   21 -0.058   21 -0.062   20 -0.060   21 0.4917   22  1.040   24 -0.117   17 -0.002
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.007 40.510   19 -0.038   19 -0.042   17 -0.001   20 0.4943   23  1.028   22 -0.073   11  0.071
HURRICANES     52 30 279 216  0.003 39.909    3  0.259    3  0.261    1  0.279    4 0.5320   24  1.027    7  0.207    4  0.351
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.006 40.209   15  0.027   15  0.041   22 -0.061   15 0.5054   25  1.011   26 -0.153   15  0.030
BRUINS         47 35 267 224  0.013 40.403    9  0.154    9  0.149    8  0.198    9 0.5184   26  0.969   14  0.059    5  0.338
CAPITALS       40 42 220 257  0.012 40.874   17 -0.018   17 -0.013   27 -0.115   17 0.4980   27  0.941   28 -0.286   12  0.056
KINGS          44 38 256 215 -0.008 39.683   14  0.055   14  0.063   10  0.175   14 0.5077   28  0.917   21 -0.024    3  0.373
PANTHERS       52 30 267 200  0.011 40.177    2  0.261    2  0.264    2  0.268    2 0.5326   29  0.904   15  0.056    1  0.481
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290  0.001 41.212   31 -0.442   31 -0.429   31 -0.499   31 0.4480   30  0.889   32 -0.729   28 -0.270
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS           52 30 259 199 -0.004 39.745    5  0.253    5  0.254    5  0.233    5 0.5317   31  0.889   20  0.003    2  0.463
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.016 40.012   27 -0.183   27 -0.174   26 -0.113   27 0.4781   32  0.837   29 -0.398    8  0.173

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.004 40.598   23 -0.062   22 -0.068   23 -0.088   23 0.4913    7  1.195   16  0.047   26 -0.222
OILERS         49 33 294 237 -0.003 39.793    8  0.194    8  0.187    7  0.220    8 0.5227   11  1.171    5  0.324   10  0.117
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 45 37 267 245 -0.014 39.684   13  0.070   13  0.082   14  0.063   13 0.5101   14  1.109   12  0.089   14  0.036
CANUCKS        50 32 278 223 -0.002 39.776    6  0.215    6  0.209    3  0.237    6 0.5257   18  1.062    8  0.206    6  0.267
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.013 40.649   30 -0.334   30 -0.336   30 -0.403   30 0.4579   20  1.054   30 -0.444   30 -0.363
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.009 40.956   32 -0.540   32 -0.538   32 -0.592   32 0.4347   21  1.043   31 -0.645   32 -0.539
KINGS          44 38 256 215 -0.008 39.683   14  0.055   14  0.063   10  0.175   14 0.5077   28  0.917   21 -0.024    3  0.373
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.016 40.012   27 -0.183   27 -0.174   26 -0.113   27 0.4781   32  0.837   29 -0.398    8  0.173

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE      50 32 304 254 -0.005 39.758    7  0.213    7  0.208    9  0.191    7 0.5257    3  1.284    1  0.443   20 -0.060
COYOTES        36 46 256 273  0.002 40.484   26 -0.115   26 -0.116   21 -0.061   26 0.4858    8  1.189   13  0.067   24 -0.189
STARS          52 30 298 234 -0.001 39.840    4  0.257    4  0.259    4  0.237    3 0.5323   10  1.173    4  0.343    9  0.130
PREDATORS      47 35 269 248 -0.002 40.033   10  0.139   10  0.140   13  0.095   10 0.5172   12  1.141   10  0.162   16  0.029
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.003 40.422   20 -0.040   20 -0.043   18 -0.020   19 0.4945   13  1.113   19  0.011   19 -0.052
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.006 40.209   15  0.027   15  0.041   22 -0.061   15 0.5054   25  1.011   26 -0.153   15  0.030
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290  0.001 41.212   31 -0.442   31 -0.429   31 -0.499   31 0.4480   30  0.889   32 -0.729   28 -0.270
JETS           52 30 259 199 -0.004 39.745    5  0.253    5  0.254    5  0.233    5 0.5317   31  0.889   20  0.003    2  0.463

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    46 36 303 263  0.015 40.492   11  0.124   11  0.125   11  0.173   11 0.5156    1  1.292    2  0.434   21 -0.089
LIGHTNING      45 37 291 268  0.009 40.422   12  0.091   12  0.100   12  0.096   12 0.5120    2  1.289    3  0.353   22 -0.162
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.010 40.598   16 -0.001   16  0.005   16  0.002   16 0.5004    5  1.238    9  0.192   23 -0.189
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.014 40.926   25 -0.079   25 -0.083   25 -0.103   25 0.4892    6  1.201   17  0.039   27 -0.245
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.014 41.067   28 -0.249   28 -0.248   28 -0.196   28 0.4687   15  1.105   27 -0.174   25 -0.217
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.007 40.510   19 -0.038   19 -0.042   17 -0.001   20 0.4943   23  1.028   22 -0.073   11  0.071
BRUINS         47 35 267 224  0.013 40.403    9  0.154    9  0.149    8  0.198    9 0.5184   26  0.969   14  0.059    5  0.338
PANTHERS       52 30 267 200  0.011 40.177    2  0.261    2  0.264    2  0.268    2 0.5326   29  0.904   15  0.056    1  0.481

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DEVILS         38 44 264 283  0.002 40.530   24 -0.064   24 -0.069   24 -0.094   22 0.4914    4  1.274   11  0.144   29 -0.333
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.010 41.083   29 -0.317   29 -0.322   29 -0.269   29 0.4597    9  1.184   25 -0.148   31 -0.389
RANGERS        55 27 282 229 -0.000 39.915    1  0.321    1  0.331    6  0.231    1 0.5408   16  1.096    6  0.242    7  0.221
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.005 40.369   22 -0.060   23 -0.068   15  0.035   24 0.4913   17  1.074   18  0.019   13  0.051
ISLANDERS      39 43 246 263  0.011 40.759   18 -0.035   18 -0.037   19 -0.057   18 0.4951   19  1.055   23 -0.096   18 -0.018
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.009 40.695   21 -0.058   21 -0.062   20 -0.060   21 0.4917   22  1.040   24 -0.117   17 -0.002
HURRICANES     52 30 279 216  0.003 39.909    3  0.259    3  0.261    1  0.279    4 0.5320   24  1.027    7  0.207    4  0.351
CAPITALS       40 42 220 257  0.012 40.874   17 -0.018   17 -0.013   27 -0.115   17 0.4980   27  0.941   28 -0.286   12  0.056

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     337 319 0.514    1  0.066
CENTRAL DIVISION      342 314 0.521    2  0.021
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 327 329 0.498    3 -0.008
PACIFIC DIVISION      306 350 0.466    4 -0.071

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.102 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Apr 19 05:30:20 2024
games through: Thu Apr 18 2024

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