Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        56 27 286 230 -0.003 40.315    1  0.329    1  0.338    4  0.239    1 0.5415   16  1.092    6  0.245    7  0.234
PANTHERS       53 30 270 202  0.010 40.696    2  0.268    2  0.273    2  0.270    2 0.5336   30  0.900   15  0.052    1  0.488
JETS           53 30 266 205 -0.003 40.307    4  0.262    4  0.265    6  0.234    3 0.5329   28  0.920   17  0.038    2  0.431
HURRICANES     53 30 282 217  0.000 40.342    3  0.266    3  0.269    1  0.284    4 0.5327   24  1.019    8  0.202    4  0.365
STARS          52 30 298 234 -0.002 39.863    5  0.258    5  0.259    5  0.236    5 0.5322   10  1.172    4  0.341    9  0.131
CANUCKS        51 32 282 225 -0.002 40.287    6  0.225    6  0.219    3  0.242    6 0.5268   18  1.060    7  0.210    6  0.275
AVALANCHE      50 33 310 261 -0.001 40.429    7  0.205    7  0.197    9  0.190    7 0.5244    1  1.309    1  0.475   20 -0.096
OILERS         49 33 294 237 -0.003 39.822    8  0.195    8  0.187    7  0.220    8 0.5226   11  1.170    5  0.322   10  0.118
BRUINS         48 35 272 225  0.013 40.926    9  0.168    9  0.160    8  0.213    9 0.5195   26  0.967   13  0.071    5  0.355
PREDATORS      47 36 271 252  0.002 40.714   10  0.129   10  0.130   13  0.089   10 0.5159   12  1.139   10  0.153   16  0.025
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    46 37 304 268  0.019 41.179   11  0.113   11  0.115   11  0.158   11 0.5143    2  1.291    2  0.418   21 -0.103
LIGHTNING      45 38 293 271  0.013 41.108   12  0.082   12  0.090   12  0.094   12 0.5108    3  1.285    3  0.346   22 -0.159
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 45 37 267 245 -0.015 39.712   13  0.072   13  0.082   14  0.062   13 0.5100   14  1.108   12  0.087   14  0.037
KINGS          44 38 256 215 -0.008 39.711   14  0.056   14  0.063   10  0.174   14 0.5076   29  0.916   21 -0.025    3  0.374
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.007 40.234   15  0.028   15  0.040   21 -0.062   15 0.5052   25  1.010   26 -0.155   15  0.031
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.009 40.631   16  0.001   16  0.005   16  0.001   16 0.5003    5  1.238    9  0.191   24 -0.189
CAPITALS       40 43 221 261  0.015 41.560   17 -0.023   17 -0.022   27 -0.125   17 0.4971   27  0.938   28 -0.300   12  0.051
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.002 40.445   19 -0.040   19 -0.044   18 -0.021   18 0.4944   13  1.112   20  0.008   19 -0.051
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.006 40.528   18 -0.038   18 -0.043   17 -0.002   19 0.4942   23  1.027   22 -0.074   11  0.070
ISLANDERS      39 44 247 266  0.015 41.458   20 -0.042   20 -0.045   22 -0.063   20 0.4941   20  1.047   23 -0.111   18 -0.014
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.009 40.726   21 -0.058   21 -0.063   19 -0.061   21 0.4916   22  1.040   24 -0.118   17 -0.003
DEVILS         38 44 264 283  0.001 40.553   24 -0.065   24 -0.071   24 -0.096   22 0.4913    4  1.274   11  0.143   29 -0.334
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.003 40.626   23 -0.063   22 -0.069   23 -0.089   23 0.4913    7  1.194   16  0.045   26 -0.222
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.004 40.391   22 -0.061   23 -0.069   15  0.034   24 0.4912   17  1.075   19  0.019   13  0.050
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.013 40.945   25 -0.080   25 -0.084   25 -0.105   25 0.4891    6  1.201   18  0.037   27 -0.246
COYOTES        36 46 256 273  0.001 40.506   26 -0.116   26 -0.118   20 -0.062   26 0.4857    8  1.188   14  0.063   23 -0.187
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.017 40.038   27 -0.184   27 -0.176   26 -0.114   27 0.4780   32  0.837   29 -0.400    8  0.173
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.013 41.099   28 -0.250   28 -0.250   28 -0.197   28 0.4686   15  1.105   27 -0.175   25 -0.218
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.009 41.114   29 -0.319   29 -0.324   29 -0.270   29 0.4597    9  1.184   25 -0.149   31 -0.391
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.014 40.675   30 -0.336   30 -0.337   30 -0.405   30 0.4578   19  1.053   30 -0.446   30 -0.363
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.001 41.235   31 -0.444   31 -0.431   31 -0.501   31 0.4479   31  0.888   32 -0.733   28 -0.270
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.010 40.985   32 -0.541   32 -0.541   32 -0.594   32 0.4346   21  1.043   31 -0.648   32 -0.540

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CANUCKS        51 32 282 225 -0.002 40.287    6  0.225    6  0.219    3  0.242    6 0.5268   18  1.060    7  0.210    6  0.275
OILERS         49 33 294 237 -0.003 39.822    8  0.195    8  0.187    7  0.220    8 0.5226   11  1.170    5  0.322   10  0.118
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 45 37 267 245 -0.015 39.712   13  0.072   13  0.082   14  0.062   13 0.5100   14  1.108   12  0.087   14  0.037
KINGS          44 38 256 215 -0.008 39.711   14  0.056   14  0.063   10  0.174   14 0.5076   29  0.916   21 -0.025    3  0.374
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.003 40.626   23 -0.063   22 -0.069   23 -0.089   23 0.4913    7  1.194   16  0.045   26 -0.222
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.017 40.038   27 -0.184   27 -0.176   26 -0.114   27 0.4780   32  0.837   29 -0.400    8  0.173
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.014 40.675   30 -0.336   30 -0.337   30 -0.405   30 0.4578   19  1.053   30 -0.446   30 -0.363
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.010 40.985   32 -0.541   32 -0.541   32 -0.594   32 0.4346   21  1.043   31 -0.648   32 -0.540

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS           53 30 266 205 -0.003 40.307    4  0.262    4  0.265    6  0.234    3 0.5329   28  0.920   17  0.038    2  0.431
STARS          52 30 298 234 -0.002 39.863    5  0.258    5  0.259    5  0.236    5 0.5322   10  1.172    4  0.341    9  0.131
AVALANCHE      50 33 310 261 -0.001 40.429    7  0.205    7  0.197    9  0.190    7 0.5244    1  1.309    1  0.475   20 -0.096
PREDATORS      47 36 271 252  0.002 40.714   10  0.129   10  0.130   13  0.089   10 0.5159   12  1.139   10  0.153   16  0.025
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.007 40.234   15  0.028   15  0.040   21 -0.062   15 0.5052   25  1.010   26 -0.155   15  0.031
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.002 40.445   19 -0.040   19 -0.044   18 -0.021   18 0.4944   13  1.112   20  0.008   19 -0.051
COYOTES        36 46 256 273  0.001 40.506   26 -0.116   26 -0.118   20 -0.062   26 0.4857    8  1.188   14  0.063   23 -0.187
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.001 41.235   31 -0.444   31 -0.431   31 -0.501   31 0.4479   31  0.888   32 -0.733   28 -0.270

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS       53 30 270 202  0.010 40.696    2  0.268    2  0.273    2  0.270    2 0.5336   30  0.900   15  0.052    1  0.488
BRUINS         48 35 272 225  0.013 40.926    9  0.168    9  0.160    8  0.213    9 0.5195   26  0.967   13  0.071    5  0.355
MAPLE LEAFS    46 37 304 268  0.019 41.179   11  0.113   11  0.115   11  0.158   11 0.5143    2  1.291    2  0.418   21 -0.103
LIGHTNING      45 38 293 271  0.013 41.108   12  0.082   12  0.090   12  0.094   12 0.5108    3  1.285    3  0.346   22 -0.159
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.009 40.631   16  0.001   16  0.005   16  0.001   16 0.5003    5  1.238    9  0.191   24 -0.189
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.006 40.528   18 -0.038   18 -0.043   17 -0.002   19 0.4942   23  1.027   22 -0.074   11  0.070
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.013 40.945   25 -0.080   25 -0.084   25 -0.105   25 0.4891    6  1.201   18  0.037   27 -0.246
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.013 41.099   28 -0.250   28 -0.250   28 -0.197   28 0.4686   15  1.105   27 -0.175   25 -0.218

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        56 27 286 230 -0.003 40.315    1  0.329    1  0.338    4  0.239    1 0.5415   16  1.092    6  0.245    7  0.234
HURRICANES     53 30 282 217  0.000 40.342    3  0.266    3  0.269    1  0.284    4 0.5327   24  1.019    8  0.202    4  0.365
CAPITALS       40 43 221 261  0.015 41.560   17 -0.023   17 -0.022   27 -0.125   17 0.4971   27  0.938   28 -0.300   12  0.051
ISLANDERS      39 44 247 266  0.015 41.458   20 -0.042   20 -0.045   22 -0.063   20 0.4941   20  1.047   23 -0.111   18 -0.014
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.009 40.726   21 -0.058   21 -0.063   19 -0.061   21 0.4916   22  1.040   24 -0.118   17 -0.003
DEVILS         38 44 264 283  0.001 40.553   24 -0.065   24 -0.071   24 -0.096   22 0.4913    4  1.274   11  0.143   29 -0.334
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.004 40.391   22 -0.061   23 -0.069   15  0.034   24 0.4912   17  1.075   19  0.019   13  0.050
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.009 41.114   29 -0.319   29 -0.324   29 -0.270   29 0.4597    9  1.184   25 -0.149   31 -0.391

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     339 321 0.514    1  0.065
CENTRAL DIVISION      343 316 0.520    2  0.019
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 329 331 0.498    3 -0.009
PACIFIC DIVISION      307 350 0.467    4 -0.071

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.105 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Apr 22 05:30:17 2024
games through: Sun Apr 21 2024

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