Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        18 12 120  86  0.097 16.032    6  0.150    7  0.150    1  0.297    5 0.5333    1  1.301    1  0.594   20 -0.000
PANTHERS         21 13 122 106  0.030 17.531    5  0.154    5  0.154   11  0.100    7 0.5326    4  1.283    2  0.372   25 -0.173
CAPITALS         22 10 121  84  0.082 16.867    1  0.245    1  0.247    2  0.271    1 0.5514   12  1.116    3  0.329    4  0.213
AVALANCHE        20 15 116 118  0.022 18.039   12  0.095   12  0.098   16  0.007   12 0.5178    2  1.298    4  0.301   27 -0.287
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   21 11 111  93  0.092 17.199    2  0.216    2  0.221    5  0.179    2 0.5495    9  1.166    5  0.300   15  0.059
HURRICANES       20 12 113  90  0.020 16.270    7  0.148    6  0.152    6  0.171    6 0.5333   10  1.136    6  0.255   14  0.087
BLUE JACKETS     13 20 108 118  0.031 17.210   24 -0.109   24 -0.107   18 -0.045   24 0.4780    3  1.297    7  0.247   30 -0.336
JETS             23 11 123  87  0.009 17.063    3  0.208    3  0.212    3  0.215    3 0.5436   14  1.086    8  0.236    6  0.194
DEVILS           21 14 116  91  0.048 18.100    8  0.138    8  0.139    4  0.200    9 0.5256   20  1.029    9  0.154    3  0.247
STARS            19 13 102  83  0.005 16.049   11  0.109   11  0.109    7  0.146   11 0.5230   19  1.030   10  0.100    7  0.192
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS           19 13 105  92  0.008 16.256   10  0.110   10  0.112   13  0.055   10 0.5233   13  1.095   11  0.087   17  0.022
PENGUINS         15 19 105 127 -0.007 17.346   21 -0.073   21 -0.068   31 -0.168   21 0.4853    5  1.248   12  0.059   32 -0.396
KINGS            19 13 101  82 -0.039 15.530   13  0.088   13  0.087    8  0.145   13 0.5173   24  0.982   13  0.044    2  0.247
SENATORS         17 15  99  91 -0.027 15.785   14  0.027   14  0.024   12  0.062   15 0.5045   17  1.047   14  0.037   13  0.087
FLYERS           14 19 100 119 -0.012 16.746   23 -0.094   23 -0.089   22 -0.133   22 0.4828    7  1.203   15  0.035   29 -0.301
CANADIENS        13 19  92 117 -0.063 15.612   26 -0.136   26 -0.133   30 -0.165   25 0.4726    6  1.221   16  0.026   31 -0.357
CANUCKS          16 16  99  99 -0.040 15.671   16 -0.014   16 -0.019   15  0.018   17 0.4958   16  1.074   17  0.025   18  0.011
MAPLE LEAFS      21 12 103  87  0.012 16.709    4  0.164    4  0.166    9  0.109    4 0.5336   22  0.985   18  0.010    5  0.208
RANGERS          16 16  95  94 -0.073 15.277   18 -0.033   18 -0.032   17 -0.012   18 0.4914   15  1.082   19  0.004   21 -0.028
SABRES           11 22  96 116 -0.035 16.446   30 -0.208   31 -0.207   25 -0.156   31 0.4553    8  1.183   20 -0.013   28 -0.299
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WILD             20 13 100  88  0.010 16.727    9  0.128    9  0.129   10  0.106    8 0.5260   27  0.917   21 -0.069    1  0.282
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 16 16  96  91  0.017 16.419   15  0.011   15  0.008   14  0.019   14 0.5051   25  0.970   22 -0.097   10  0.135
SHARKS           11 24  96 126  0.026 18.374   31 -0.209   30 -0.205   32 -0.177   30 0.4585   11  1.131   23 -0.100   26 -0.254
KRAKEN           15 19  97 102 -0.037 16.864   22 -0.087   22 -0.084   21 -0.105   23 0.4816   18  1.030   24 -0.151   23 -0.059
RED WINGS        13 19  87 102 -0.114 14.904   27 -0.157   27 -0.156   27 -0.157   28 0.4643   21  1.026   25 -0.207   24 -0.107
FLAMES           15 18  89 102 -0.030 16.403   20 -0.064   20 -0.064   19 -0.057   20 0.4854   28  0.913   26 -0.238   11  0.123
BLACKHAWKS       12 21  84 102 -0.012 16.757   28 -0.162   28 -0.160   23 -0.139   27 0.4654   23  0.982   27 -0.241   22 -0.038
ISLANDERS        12 21  86 103 -0.051 16.246   29 -0.179   29 -0.177   26 -0.157   29 0.4614   26  0.930   28 -0.318   19  0.005
BLUES            15 20  87 107  0.052 18.619   19 -0.058   19 -0.057   20 -0.098   19 0.4895   30  0.855   29 -0.341    8  0.145
BRUINS           17 17  88 107 -0.055 16.660   17 -0.025   17 -0.023   29 -0.160   16 0.4969   29  0.909   30 -0.344   16  0.025
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS            12 19  76  96 -0.013 15.716   25 -0.133   25 -0.130   24 -0.149   26 0.4710   31  0.854   31 -0.394   12  0.095
PREDATORS         9 24  76 103  0.027 17.316   32 -0.249   32 -0.250   28 -0.158   32 0.4497   32  0.807   32 -0.453    9  0.137

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   21 11 111  93  0.092 17.199    2  0.216    2  0.221    5  0.179    2 0.5495    9  1.166    5  0.300   15  0.059
OILERS           19 13 105  92  0.008 16.256   10  0.110   10  0.112   13  0.055   10 0.5233   13  1.095   11  0.087   17  0.022
KINGS            19 13 101  82 -0.039 15.530   13  0.088   13  0.087    8  0.145   13 0.5173   24  0.982   13  0.044    2  0.247
CANUCKS          16 16  99  99 -0.040 15.671   16 -0.014   16 -0.019   15  0.018   17 0.4958   16  1.074   17  0.025   18  0.011
SHARKS           11 24  96 126  0.026 18.374   31 -0.209   30 -0.205   32 -0.177   30 0.4585   11  1.131   23 -0.100   26 -0.254
KRAKEN           15 19  97 102 -0.037 16.864   22 -0.087   22 -0.084   21 -0.105   23 0.4816   18  1.030   24 -0.151   23 -0.059
FLAMES           15 18  89 102 -0.030 16.403   20 -0.064   20 -0.064   19 -0.057   20 0.4854   28  0.913   26 -0.238   11  0.123
DUCKS            12 19  76  96 -0.013 15.716   25 -0.133   25 -0.130   24 -0.149   26 0.4710   31  0.854   31 -0.394   12  0.095

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE        20 15 116 118  0.022 18.039   12  0.095   12  0.098   16  0.007   12 0.5178    2  1.298    4  0.301   27 -0.287
JETS             23 11 123  87  0.009 17.063    3  0.208    3  0.212    3  0.215    3 0.5436   14  1.086    8  0.236    6  0.194
STARS            19 13 102  83  0.005 16.049   11  0.109   11  0.109    7  0.146   11 0.5230   19  1.030   10  0.100    7  0.192
WILD             20 13 100  88  0.010 16.727    9  0.128    9  0.129   10  0.106    8 0.5260   27  0.917   21 -0.069    1  0.282
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 16 16  96  91  0.017 16.419   15  0.011   15  0.008   14  0.019   14 0.5051   25  0.970   22 -0.097   10  0.135
BLACKHAWKS       12 21  84 102 -0.012 16.757   28 -0.162   28 -0.160   23 -0.139   27 0.4654   23  0.982   27 -0.241   22 -0.038
BLUES            15 20  87 107  0.052 18.619   19 -0.058   19 -0.057   20 -0.098   19 0.4895   30  0.855   29 -0.341    8  0.145
PREDATORS         9 24  76 103  0.027 17.316   32 -0.249   32 -0.250   28 -0.158   32 0.4497   32  0.807   32 -0.453    9  0.137

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         22 10 121  84  0.082 16.867    1  0.245    1  0.247    2  0.271    1 0.5514   12  1.116    3  0.329    4  0.213
HURRICANES       20 12 113  90  0.020 16.270    7  0.148    6  0.152    6  0.171    6 0.5333   10  1.136    6  0.255   14  0.087
BLUE JACKETS     13 20 108 118  0.031 17.210   24 -0.109   24 -0.107   18 -0.045   24 0.4780    3  1.297    7  0.247   30 -0.336
DEVILS           21 14 116  91  0.048 18.100    8  0.138    8  0.139    4  0.200    9 0.5256   20  1.029    9  0.154    3  0.247
PENGUINS         15 19 105 127 -0.007 17.346   21 -0.073   21 -0.068   31 -0.168   21 0.4853    5  1.248   12  0.059   32 -0.396
FLYERS           14 19 100 119 -0.012 16.746   23 -0.094   23 -0.089   22 -0.133   22 0.4828    7  1.203   15  0.035   29 -0.301
RANGERS          16 16  95  94 -0.073 15.277   18 -0.033   18 -0.032   17 -0.012   18 0.4914   15  1.082   19  0.004   21 -0.028
ISLANDERS        12 21  86 103 -0.051 16.246   29 -0.179   29 -0.177   26 -0.157   29 0.4614   26  0.930   28 -0.318   19  0.005

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        18 12 120  86  0.097 16.032    6  0.150    7  0.150    1  0.297    5 0.5333    1  1.301    1  0.594   20 -0.000
PANTHERS         21 13 122 106  0.030 17.531    5  0.154    5  0.154   11  0.100    7 0.5326    4  1.283    2  0.372   25 -0.173
SENATORS         17 15  99  91 -0.027 15.785   14  0.027   14  0.024   12  0.062   15 0.5045   17  1.047   14  0.037   13  0.087
CANADIENS        13 19  92 117 -0.063 15.612   26 -0.136   26 -0.133   30 -0.165   25 0.4726    6  1.221   16  0.026   31 -0.357
MAPLE LEAFS      21 12 103  87  0.012 16.709    4  0.164    4  0.166    9  0.109    4 0.5336   22  0.985   18  0.010    5  0.208
SABRES           11 22  96 116 -0.035 16.446   30 -0.208   31 -0.207   25 -0.156   31 0.4553    8  1.183   20 -0.013   28 -0.299
RED WINGS        13 19  87 102 -0.114 14.904   27 -0.157   27 -0.156   27 -0.157   28 0.4643   21  1.026   25 -0.207   24 -0.107
BRUINS           17 17  88 107 -0.055 16.660   17 -0.025   17 -0.023   29 -0.160   16 0.4969   29  0.909   30 -0.344   16  0.025

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 133 131 0.504    1  0.025
CENTRAL DIVISION      134 133 0.502    2  0.020
ATLANTIC DIVISION     131 129 0.504    3 -0.018
PACIFIC DIVISION      128 133 0.490    4 -0.021

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.068 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 21 05:30:14 2024
games through: Fri Dec 20 2024

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