Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        57 27 290 233 -0.008 40.681    1  0.335    1  0.342    3  0.237    1 0.5421   16  1.097    6  0.247    7  0.226
PANTHERS       55 30 278 207  0.011 41.725    2  0.285    2  0.291    2  0.274    2 0.5357   30  0.899   15  0.054    1  0.494
HURRICANES     55 30 290 222 -0.004 41.226    3  0.280    3  0.283    1  0.286    3 0.5344   24  1.025    7  0.210    4  0.363
JETS           53 31 268 210 -0.003 40.850    4  0.251    4  0.250    6  0.220    4 0.5310   29  0.924   18  0.027    2  0.413
STARS          52 32 302 241 -0.004 40.849    5  0.235    5  0.229    7  0.216    5 0.5285   11  1.166    5  0.312    9  0.120
AVALANCHE      51 33 315 263  0.001 41.000    6  0.217    6  0.208    9  0.200    6 0.5258    1  1.311    1  0.487   20 -0.086
CANUCKS        51 33 283 229 -0.004 40.798    7  0.214    7  0.204    4  0.225    7 0.5250   18  1.056    9  0.186    6  0.265
OILERS         50 34 305 246 -0.003 40.844    8  0.192    8  0.183    5  0.223    8 0.5219    7  1.197    3  0.359   10  0.087
BRUINS         49 36 278 230  0.015 42.023    9  0.167    9  0.158    8  0.215    9 0.5192   26  0.961   13  0.064    3  0.365
PREDATORS      48 36 275 253  0.004 41.276   10  0.143   10  0.141   12  0.103   10 0.5173   12  1.135   10  0.160   14  0.046
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    47 38 309 274  0.022 42.339   11  0.114   11  0.116   11  0.154   11 0.5142    2  1.286    2  0.406   21 -0.098
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 47 37 274 249 -0.008 40.915   12  0.103   12  0.107   14  0.079   12 0.5133   15  1.101   12  0.095   12  0.064
LIGHTNING      45 40 298 279  0.019 42.328   13  0.062   13  0.070   13  0.087   13 0.5084    3  1.285    4  0.337   22 -0.164
KINGS          45 39 265 226 -0.001 40.957   14  0.060   14  0.066   10  0.168   14 0.5079   27  0.948   21  0.003    5  0.334
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.009 40.203   15  0.028   15  0.038   21 -0.064   15 0.5050   25  1.009   26 -0.160   16  0.031
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.007 40.605   16  0.000   16  0.003   16 -0.001   16 0.5002    5  1.237    8  0.187   24 -0.189
CAPITALS       40 44 224 265  0.018 42.168   17 -0.030   17 -0.031   27 -0.126   17 0.4961   28  0.943   28 -0.297   15  0.046
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.004 40.495   18 -0.039   19 -0.045   17 -0.004   19 0.4940   23  1.027   22 -0.078   11  0.070
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.000 40.423   19 -0.040   18 -0.045   18 -0.023   18 0.4943   13  1.111   20  0.004   19 -0.050
ISLANDERS      39 46 252 274  0.021 42.687   20 -0.058   20 -0.064   22 -0.068   20 0.4921   19  1.052   23 -0.112   18 -0.025
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.007 40.698   21 -0.059   21 -0.065   19 -0.063   21 0.4915   22  1.039   24 -0.123   17 -0.002
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.002 40.362   22 -0.062   23 -0.071   15  0.032   24 0.4910   17  1.074   19  0.014   13  0.051
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.002 40.599   23 -0.064   22 -0.071   23 -0.091   22 0.4911    8  1.192   16  0.039   26 -0.220
DEVILS         38 44 264 283 -0.001 40.522   24 -0.066   24 -0.072   24 -0.097   23 0.4911    4  1.273   11  0.138   29 -0.333
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.011 40.914   25 -0.081   25 -0.086   25 -0.107   25 0.4890    6  1.200   17  0.033   27 -0.246
COYOTES        36 46 256 273 -0.000 40.486   26 -0.117   26 -0.119   20 -0.064   26 0.4855    9  1.187   14  0.059   23 -0.187
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.018 40.020   27 -0.184   27 -0.177   26 -0.115   27 0.4778   32  0.835   29 -0.405    8  0.174
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.011 41.071   28 -0.250   28 -0.251   28 -0.199   28 0.4684   14  1.104   27 -0.179   25 -0.218
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.008 41.086   29 -0.318   29 -0.325   29 -0.272   29 0.4595   10  1.184   25 -0.153   31 -0.390
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.015 40.655   30 -0.335   30 -0.338   30 -0.406   30 0.4577   20  1.052   30 -0.451   30 -0.362
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.002 41.204   31 -0.443   31 -0.432   31 -0.503   31 0.4477   31  0.887   32 -0.737   28 -0.269
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.011 40.956   32 -0.540   32 -0.542   32 -0.595   32 0.4345   21  1.041   31 -0.653   32 -0.538

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CANUCKS        51 33 283 229 -0.004 40.798    7  0.214    7  0.204    4  0.225    7 0.5250   18  1.056    9  0.186    6  0.265
OILERS         50 34 305 246 -0.003 40.844    8  0.192    8  0.183    5  0.223    8 0.5219    7  1.197    3  0.359   10  0.087
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 47 37 274 249 -0.008 40.915   12  0.103   12  0.107   14  0.079   12 0.5133   15  1.101   12  0.095   12  0.064
KINGS          45 39 265 226 -0.001 40.957   14  0.060   14  0.066   10  0.168   14 0.5079   27  0.948   21  0.003    5  0.334
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.002 40.599   23 -0.064   22 -0.071   23 -0.091   22 0.4911    8  1.192   16  0.039   26 -0.220
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.018 40.020   27 -0.184   27 -0.177   26 -0.115   27 0.4778   32  0.835   29 -0.405    8  0.174
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.015 40.655   30 -0.335   30 -0.338   30 -0.406   30 0.4577   20  1.052   30 -0.451   30 -0.362
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.011 40.956   32 -0.540   32 -0.542   32 -0.595   32 0.4345   21  1.041   31 -0.653   32 -0.538

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS           53 31 268 210 -0.003 40.850    4  0.251    4  0.250    6  0.220    4 0.5310   29  0.924   18  0.027    2  0.413
STARS          52 32 302 241 -0.004 40.849    5  0.235    5  0.229    7  0.216    5 0.5285   11  1.166    5  0.312    9  0.120
AVALANCHE      51 33 315 263  0.001 41.000    6  0.217    6  0.208    9  0.200    6 0.5258    1  1.311    1  0.487   20 -0.086
PREDATORS      48 36 275 253  0.004 41.276   10  0.143   10  0.141   12  0.103   10 0.5173   12  1.135   10  0.160   14  0.046
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.009 40.203   15  0.028   15  0.038   21 -0.064   15 0.5050   25  1.009   26 -0.160   16  0.031
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.000 40.423   19 -0.040   18 -0.045   18 -0.023   18 0.4943   13  1.111   20  0.004   19 -0.050
COYOTES        36 46 256 273 -0.000 40.486   26 -0.117   26 -0.119   20 -0.064   26 0.4855    9  1.187   14  0.059   23 -0.187
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.002 41.204   31 -0.443   31 -0.432   31 -0.503   31 0.4477   31  0.887   32 -0.737   28 -0.269

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS       55 30 278 207  0.011 41.725    2  0.285    2  0.291    2  0.274    2 0.5357   30  0.899   15  0.054    1  0.494
BRUINS         49 36 278 230  0.015 42.023    9  0.167    9  0.158    8  0.215    9 0.5192   26  0.961   13  0.064    3  0.365
MAPLE LEAFS    47 38 309 274  0.022 42.339   11  0.114   11  0.116   11  0.154   11 0.5142    2  1.286    2  0.406   21 -0.098
LIGHTNING      45 40 298 279  0.019 42.328   13  0.062   13  0.070   13  0.087   13 0.5084    3  1.285    4  0.337   22 -0.164
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.007 40.605   16  0.000   16  0.003   16 -0.001   16 0.5002    5  1.237    8  0.187   24 -0.189
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.004 40.495   18 -0.039   19 -0.045   17 -0.004   19 0.4940   23  1.027   22 -0.078   11  0.070
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.011 40.914   25 -0.081   25 -0.086   25 -0.107   25 0.4890    6  1.200   17  0.033   27 -0.246
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.011 41.071   28 -0.250   28 -0.251   28 -0.199   28 0.4684   14  1.104   27 -0.179   25 -0.218

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        57 27 290 233 -0.008 40.681    1  0.335    1  0.342    3  0.237    1 0.5421   16  1.097    6  0.247    7  0.226
HURRICANES     55 30 290 222 -0.004 41.226    3  0.280    3  0.283    1  0.286    3 0.5344   24  1.025    7  0.210    4  0.363
CAPITALS       40 44 224 265  0.018 42.168   17 -0.030   17 -0.031   27 -0.126   17 0.4961   28  0.943   28 -0.297   15  0.046
ISLANDERS      39 46 252 274  0.021 42.687   20 -0.058   20 -0.064   22 -0.068   20 0.4921   19  1.052   23 -0.112   18 -0.025
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.007 40.698   21 -0.059   21 -0.065   19 -0.063   21 0.4915   22  1.039   24 -0.123   17 -0.002
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.002 40.362   22 -0.062   23 -0.071   15  0.032   24 0.4910   17  1.074   19  0.014   13  0.051
DEVILS         38 44 264 283 -0.001 40.522   24 -0.066   24 -0.072   24 -0.097   23 0.4911    4  1.273   11  0.138   29 -0.333
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.008 41.086   29 -0.318   29 -0.325   29 -0.272   29 0.4595   10  1.184   25 -0.153   31 -0.390

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     343 325 0.513    1  0.063
CENTRAL DIVISION      345 319 0.520    2  0.017
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 332 334 0.498    3 -0.011
PACIFIC DIVISION      311 353 0.468    4 -0.072

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.100 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Apr 26 05:30:12 2024
games through: Thu Apr 25 2024

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