Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         34 18 182 129  0.029 26.411    2  0.216    2  0.212    1  0.277    2 0.5394   22  1.011    6  0.222    2  0.331
JETS             37 17 195 131 -0.020 26.361    1  0.236    1  0.234    2  0.275    1 0.5433   17  1.048    2  0.265    5  0.286
STARS            34 18 169 129 -0.008 25.703    3  0.198    3  0.195    3  0.195    3 0.5355   25  0.966   11  0.089    4  0.302
LIGHTNING        27 24 177 143  0.012 25.710   14  0.041   14  0.043    4  0.172   14 0.5089    7  1.162    1  0.301   14  0.043
HURRICANES       32 21 176 146  0.015 26.805    4  0.146    4  0.144    5  0.159    6 0.5250   14  1.086    9  0.195    7  0.123
DEVILS           29 25 167 137  0.011 27.216   12  0.050   13  0.054    6  0.158   13 0.5090   27  0.923   15  0.003    3  0.313
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   31 22 177 149  0.005 26.581    8  0.114    9  0.114    7  0.148    8 0.5211   10  1.123    3  0.229   12  0.067
OILERS           32 20 171 142 -0.030 25.425    6  0.134    6  0.135    8  0.108    4 0.5253   16  1.068   10  0.121   11  0.094
PANTHERS         32 22 181 156  0.007 27.211    7  0.126    7  0.126    9  0.094    7 0.5226    8  1.151    7  0.209   18 -0.022
KINGS            27 23 139 127  0.012 25.306   13  0.050   12  0.055   10  0.080   12 0.5106   32  0.826   27 -0.181    1  0.341
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SENATORS         29 24 153 142  0.010 26.818   11  0.060   11  0.067   11  0.064   11 0.5132   29  0.923   21 -0.091    6  0.220
AVALANCHE        31 23 177 165  0.008 27.276   10  0.096   10  0.102   12  0.061   10 0.5173    3  1.192    5  0.228   24 -0.106
MAPLE LEAFS      31 21 159 150  0.019 26.530    5  0.135    5  0.136   13  0.037    5 0.5252   15  1.072   14  0.055   16  0.019
WILD             31 22 155 152  0.004 26.729    9  0.109    8  0.115   14  0.030    9 0.5206   23  0.992   18 -0.048    9  0.107
RANGERS          25 27 156 160  0.006 26.315   18 -0.019   19 -0.022   15  0.007   19 0.4956   12  1.105   12  0.065   21 -0.051
BLUE JACKETS     26 27 177 176  0.000 26.706   16 -0.010   16 -0.012   16 -0.005   15 0.4991    2  1.243    4  0.229   28 -0.239
FLAMES           26 26 141 152 -0.031 25.604   17 -0.013   17 -0.015   17 -0.047   18 0.4960   31  0.919   30 -0.207    8  0.113
CANUCKS          23 29 148 164 -0.019 25.864   23 -0.080   23 -0.085   18 -0.054   23 0.4839   18  1.031   20 -0.085   19 -0.023
ISLANDERS        24 28 144 151 -0.024 25.760   22 -0.055   22 -0.061   19 -0.057   22 0.4893   30  0.920   31 -0.215   10  0.102
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 21 31 144 155  0.002 26.331   27 -0.124   28 -0.124   20 -0.064   27 0.4784   26  0.956   28 -0.182   13  0.054
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED WINGS        27 26 152 161 -0.043 25.863   15 -0.008   15 -0.010   21 -0.068   16 0.4978   19  1.023   22 -0.108   20 -0.027
BLUES            24 29 144 160  0.012 27.048   21 -0.050   21 -0.055   22 -0.070   21 0.4894   24  0.967   26 -0.175   15  0.036
SABRES           21 31 164 177 -0.010 26.070   29 -0.131   29 -0.129   23 -0.072   29 0.4763    1  1.271    8  0.199   31 -0.343
CANADIENS        24 28 153 176  0.016 26.625   20 -0.037   20 -0.040   24 -0.073   20 0.4932    6  1.163   13  0.058   25 -0.204
BRUINS           26 28 149 175  0.009 27.533   19 -0.020   18 -0.020   25 -0.106   17 0.4971   20  1.022   24 -0.147   22 -0.065
KRAKEN           23 31 161 173 -0.030 26.724   26 -0.114   26 -0.114   26 -0.116   26 0.4787    9  1.138   16 -0.016   27 -0.216
FLYERS           23 31 154 183  0.002 27.430   24 -0.094   25 -0.096   27 -0.138   24 0.4834   11  1.112   19 -0.071   26 -0.204
PREDATORS        18 34 136 169  0.020 26.823   30 -0.197   30 -0.190   28 -0.153   30 0.4655   21  1.014   29 -0.204   23 -0.102
DUCKS            22 30 133 163  0.005 26.518   25 -0.095   24 -0.094   29 -0.160   25 0.4816   28  0.923   32 -0.315   17 -0.004
PENGUINS         22 32 157 193  0.002 27.504   28 -0.125   27 -0.120   30 -0.185   28 0.4783    4  1.184   17 -0.028   30 -0.342
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS       16 36 135 179  0.011 26.698   31 -0.245   31 -0.242   31 -0.196   31 0.4552   13  1.097   23 -0.147   29 -0.244
SHARKS           15 39 141 202 -0.007 27.448   32 -0.292   32 -0.296   32 -0.286   32 0.4448    5  1.165   25 -0.152   32 -0.419

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   31 22 177 149  0.005 26.581    8  0.114    9  0.114    7  0.148    8 0.5211   10  1.123    3  0.229   12  0.067
OILERS           32 20 171 142 -0.030 25.425    6  0.134    6  0.135    8  0.108    4 0.5253   16  1.068   10  0.121   11  0.094
KINGS            27 23 139 127  0.012 25.306   13  0.050   12  0.055   10  0.080   12 0.5106   32  0.826   27 -0.181    1  0.341
FLAMES           26 26 141 152 -0.031 25.604   17 -0.013   17 -0.015   17 -0.047   18 0.4960   31  0.919   30 -0.207    8  0.113
CANUCKS          23 29 148 164 -0.019 25.864   23 -0.080   23 -0.085   18 -0.054   23 0.4839   18  1.031   20 -0.085   19 -0.023
KRAKEN           23 31 161 173 -0.030 26.724   26 -0.114   26 -0.114   26 -0.116   26 0.4787    9  1.138   16 -0.016   27 -0.216
DUCKS            22 30 133 163  0.005 26.518   25 -0.095   24 -0.094   29 -0.160   25 0.4816   28  0.923   32 -0.315   17 -0.004
SHARKS           15 39 141 202 -0.007 27.448   32 -0.292   32 -0.296   32 -0.286   32 0.4448    5  1.165   25 -0.152   32 -0.419

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS             37 17 195 131 -0.020 26.361    1  0.236    1  0.234    2  0.275    1 0.5433   17  1.048    2  0.265    5  0.286
STARS            34 18 169 129 -0.008 25.703    3  0.198    3  0.195    3  0.195    3 0.5355   25  0.966   11  0.089    4  0.302
AVALANCHE        31 23 177 165  0.008 27.276   10  0.096   10  0.102   12  0.061   10 0.5173    3  1.192    5  0.228   24 -0.106
WILD             31 22 155 152  0.004 26.729    9  0.109    8  0.115   14  0.030    9 0.5206   23  0.992   18 -0.048    9  0.107
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 21 31 144 155  0.002 26.331   27 -0.124   28 -0.124   20 -0.064   27 0.4784   26  0.956   28 -0.182   13  0.054
BLUES            24 29 144 160  0.012 27.048   21 -0.050   21 -0.055   22 -0.070   21 0.4894   24  0.967   26 -0.175   15  0.036
PREDATORS        18 34 136 169  0.020 26.823   30 -0.197   30 -0.190   28 -0.153   30 0.4655   21  1.014   29 -0.204   23 -0.102
BLACKHAWKS       16 36 135 179  0.011 26.698   31 -0.245   31 -0.242   31 -0.196   31 0.4552   13  1.097   23 -0.147   29 -0.244

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         34 18 182 129  0.029 26.411    2  0.216    2  0.212    1  0.277    2 0.5394   22  1.011    6  0.222    2  0.331
HURRICANES       32 21 176 146  0.015 26.805    4  0.146    4  0.144    5  0.159    6 0.5250   14  1.086    9  0.195    7  0.123
DEVILS           29 25 167 137  0.011 27.216   12  0.050   13  0.054    6  0.158   13 0.5090   27  0.923   15  0.003    3  0.313
RANGERS          25 27 156 160  0.006 26.315   18 -0.019   19 -0.022   15  0.007   19 0.4956   12  1.105   12  0.065   21 -0.051
BLUE JACKETS     26 27 177 176  0.000 26.706   16 -0.010   16 -0.012   16 -0.005   15 0.4991    2  1.243    4  0.229   28 -0.239
ISLANDERS        24 28 144 151 -0.024 25.760   22 -0.055   22 -0.061   19 -0.057   22 0.4893   30  0.920   31 -0.215   10  0.102
FLYERS           23 31 154 183  0.002 27.430   24 -0.094   25 -0.096   27 -0.138   24 0.4834   11  1.112   19 -0.071   26 -0.204
PENGUINS         22 32 157 193  0.002 27.504   28 -0.125   27 -0.120   30 -0.185   28 0.4783    4  1.184   17 -0.028   30 -0.342

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        27 24 177 143  0.012 25.710   14  0.041   14  0.043    4  0.172   14 0.5089    7  1.162    1  0.301   14  0.043
PANTHERS         32 22 181 156  0.007 27.211    7  0.126    7  0.126    9  0.094    7 0.5226    8  1.151    7  0.209   18 -0.022
SENATORS         29 24 153 142  0.010 26.818   11  0.060   11  0.067   11  0.064   11 0.5132   29  0.923   21 -0.091    6  0.220
MAPLE LEAFS      31 21 159 150  0.019 26.530    5  0.135    5  0.136   13  0.037    5 0.5252   15  1.072   14  0.055   16  0.019
RED WINGS        27 26 152 161 -0.043 25.863   15 -0.008   15 -0.010   21 -0.068   16 0.4978   19  1.023   22 -0.108   20 -0.027
SABRES           21 31 164 177 -0.010 26.070   29 -0.131   29 -0.129   23 -0.072   29 0.4763    1  1.271    8  0.199   31 -0.343
CANADIENS        24 28 153 176  0.016 26.625   20 -0.037   20 -0.040   24 -0.073   20 0.4932    6  1.163   13  0.058   25 -0.204
BRUINS           26 28 149 175  0.009 27.533   19 -0.020   18 -0.020   25 -0.106   17 0.4971   20  1.022   24 -0.147   22 -0.065

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 215 209 0.507    1  0.043
CENTRAL DIVISION      212 210 0.502    2  0.014
ATLANTIC DIVISION     217 204 0.515    3  0.009
PACIFIC DIVISION      199 220 0.475    4 -0.065

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.097 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Feb  4 05:30:08 2025
games through: Mon Feb  3 2025

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