Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         29 15 159 113  0.030 22.416    1  0.211    1  0.208    2  0.258    1 0.5402   14  1.084    3  0.286    5  0.230
JETS             30 15 162 109 -0.010 22.204    2  0.207    2  0.203    1  0.271    2 0.5399   18  1.039    6  0.246    4  0.297
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   29 15 151 119  0.010 22.144    3  0.204    3  0.202    5  0.184    3 0.5395    9  1.131    4  0.270    9  0.097
STARS            28 15 140 105 -0.014 21.188    4  0.180    4  0.177    4  0.194    4 0.5343   24  0.965   12  0.081    3  0.307
OILERS           28 16 145 120 -0.020 21.743    5  0.160    5  0.159    9  0.109    5 0.5318   17  1.073    9  0.123   10  0.095
WILD             27 18 135 127  0.028 23.150    6  0.137    6  0.140   10  0.068    6 0.5263   23  0.977   18 -0.031    6  0.167
MAPLE LEAFS      27 18 136 128  0.003 22.740    7  0.125    7  0.129   13  0.038    7 0.5237   19  1.038   15  0.011   13  0.065
AVALANCHE        27 18 150 140  0.009 22.811    8  0.124    8  0.129   11  0.054    8 0.5232    4  1.218    5  0.250   23 -0.142
PANTHERS         26 19 148 137  0.031 23.248    9  0.106    9  0.113   12  0.043    9 0.5215    7  1.161    8  0.167   22 -0.081
KINGS            24 17 121 100  0.009 20.686   10  0.097   10  0.105    7  0.149   10 0.5208   32  0.858   21 -0.083    1  0.380
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES       26 19 149 127  0.011 22.771   11  0.095   11  0.102    8  0.129   11 0.5191   13  1.096    7  0.171   11  0.087
DEVILS           26 20 143 116  0.023 23.441   12  0.087   12  0.093    6  0.169   13 0.5159   28  0.922   16  0.008    2  0.330
LIGHTNING        23 19 153 119  0.054 21.859   13  0.081   13  0.082    3  0.225   12 0.5172    3  1.220    1  0.425   17  0.026
SENATORS         22 21 124 120 -0.004 21.618   14  0.014   14  0.012   14  0.036   14 0.5029   25  0.963   20 -0.079    7  0.150
CANADIENS        21 22 131 143 -0.009 21.634   15 -0.013   15 -0.018   18 -0.038   15 0.4974    8  1.158   11  0.082   24 -0.158
BLUE JACKETS     21 23 152 153 -0.012 22.054   16 -0.026   17 -0.033   15 -0.022   17 0.4942    1  1.324    2  0.316   31 -0.360
BRUINS           22 24 122 144 -0.004 23.331   17 -0.027   16 -0.029   25 -0.119   16 0.4953   27  0.925   29 -0.277   16  0.039
BLUES            21 24 127 134  0.006 22.889   18 -0.032   19 -0.038   16 -0.026   18 0.4917   21  0.985   24 -0.115   14  0.063
FLAMES           21 22 116 127 -0.047 20.987   19 -0.033   18 -0.036   20 -0.057   20 0.4909   30  0.904   28 -0.238    8  0.124
RANGERS          20 23 124 134  0.001 21.806   20 -0.039   20 -0.041   17 -0.031   19 0.4912   15  1.079   17 -0.009   21 -0.053
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED WINGS        20 23 124 139 -0.088 20.369   21 -0.084   21 -0.082   27 -0.134   24 0.4816   12  1.101   23 -0.085   25 -0.183
CANUCKS          19 24 125 136 -0.036 21.168   22 -0.088   22 -0.089   19 -0.050   23 0.4818   20  1.033   22 -0.083   20 -0.017
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 18 25 120 130  0.004 21.910   23 -0.097   24 -0.097   21 -0.073   21 0.4832   22  0.983   26 -0.165   18  0.018
DUCKS            18 26 108 138  0.024 22.902   24 -0.098   23 -0.097   29 -0.164   25 0.4810   31  0.874   32 -0.378   15  0.050
FLYERS           19 26 138 157 -0.010 22.681   25 -0.099   25 -0.102   23 -0.094   22 0.4824    6  1.189   13  0.064   28 -0.253
KRAKEN           19 26 132 146 -0.027 22.413   26 -0.108   26 -0.110   26 -0.130   26 0.4785   10  1.128   19 -0.048   26 -0.212
PENGUINS         18 28 137 173 -0.005 23.433   27 -0.140   27 -0.138   31 -0.211   27 0.4736    2  1.242   14  0.016   32 -0.438
SABRES           17 27 136 148 -0.012 22.131   28 -0.145   29 -0.145   22 -0.074   29 0.4720    5  1.215   10  0.118   29 -0.267
ISLANDERS        17 26 114 131 -0.040 21.222   29 -0.147   28 -0.144   28 -0.137   28 0.4723   26  0.936   30 -0.282   19  0.008
PREDATORS        14 29 106 135  0.073 23.142   30 -0.183   30 -0.179   24 -0.109   30 0.4665   29  0.911   31 -0.283   12  0.065
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS       14 30 113 152 -0.018 22.211   31 -0.233   31 -0.230   32 -0.220   31 0.4554   11  1.115   25 -0.153   30 -0.286
SHARKS           14 32 120 161  0.026 24.045   32 -0.235   32 -0.232   30 -0.205   32 0.4550   16  1.075   27 -0.187   27 -0.222

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   29 15 151 119  0.010 22.144    3  0.204    3  0.202    5  0.184    3 0.5395    9  1.131    4  0.270    9  0.097
OILERS           28 16 145 120 -0.020 21.743    5  0.160    5  0.159    9  0.109    5 0.5318   17  1.073    9  0.123   10  0.095
KINGS            24 17 121 100  0.009 20.686   10  0.097   10  0.105    7  0.149   10 0.5208   32  0.858   21 -0.083    1  0.380
FLAMES           21 22 116 127 -0.047 20.987   19 -0.033   18 -0.036   20 -0.057   20 0.4909   30  0.904   28 -0.238    8  0.124
CANUCKS          19 24 125 136 -0.036 21.168   22 -0.088   22 -0.089   19 -0.050   23 0.4818   20  1.033   22 -0.083   20 -0.017
DUCKS            18 26 108 138  0.024 22.902   24 -0.098   23 -0.097   29 -0.164   25 0.4810   31  0.874   32 -0.378   15  0.050
KRAKEN           19 26 132 146 -0.027 22.413   26 -0.108   26 -0.110   26 -0.130   26 0.4785   10  1.128   19 -0.048   26 -0.212
SHARKS           14 32 120 161  0.026 24.045   32 -0.235   32 -0.232   30 -0.205   32 0.4550   16  1.075   27 -0.187   27 -0.222

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS             30 15 162 109 -0.010 22.204    2  0.207    2  0.203    1  0.271    2 0.5399   18  1.039    6  0.246    4  0.297
STARS            28 15 140 105 -0.014 21.188    4  0.180    4  0.177    4  0.194    4 0.5343   24  0.965   12  0.081    3  0.307
WILD             27 18 135 127  0.028 23.150    6  0.137    6  0.140   10  0.068    6 0.5263   23  0.977   18 -0.031    6  0.167
AVALANCHE        27 18 150 140  0.009 22.811    8  0.124    8  0.129   11  0.054    8 0.5232    4  1.218    5  0.250   23 -0.142
BLUES            21 24 127 134  0.006 22.889   18 -0.032   19 -0.038   16 -0.026   18 0.4917   21  0.985   24 -0.115   14  0.063
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 18 25 120 130  0.004 21.910   23 -0.097   24 -0.097   21 -0.073   21 0.4832   22  0.983   26 -0.165   18  0.018
PREDATORS        14 29 106 135  0.073 23.142   30 -0.183   30 -0.179   24 -0.109   30 0.4665   29  0.911   31 -0.283   12  0.065
BLACKHAWKS       14 30 113 152 -0.018 22.211   31 -0.233   31 -0.230   32 -0.220   31 0.4554   11  1.115   25 -0.153   30 -0.286

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         29 15 159 113  0.030 22.416    1  0.211    1  0.208    2  0.258    1 0.5402   14  1.084    3  0.286    5  0.230
HURRICANES       26 19 149 127  0.011 22.771   11  0.095   11  0.102    8  0.129   11 0.5191   13  1.096    7  0.171   11  0.087
DEVILS           26 20 143 116  0.023 23.441   12  0.087   12  0.093    6  0.169   13 0.5159   28  0.922   16  0.008    2  0.330
BLUE JACKETS     21 23 152 153 -0.012 22.054   16 -0.026   17 -0.033   15 -0.022   17 0.4942    1  1.324    2  0.316   31 -0.360
RANGERS          20 23 124 134  0.001 21.806   20 -0.039   20 -0.041   17 -0.031   19 0.4912   15  1.079   17 -0.009   21 -0.053
FLYERS           19 26 138 157 -0.010 22.681   25 -0.099   25 -0.102   23 -0.094   22 0.4824    6  1.189   13  0.064   28 -0.253
PENGUINS         18 28 137 173 -0.005 23.433   27 -0.140   27 -0.138   31 -0.211   27 0.4736    2  1.242   14  0.016   32 -0.438
ISLANDERS        17 26 114 131 -0.040 21.222   29 -0.147   28 -0.144   28 -0.137   28 0.4723   26  0.936   30 -0.282   19  0.008

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS      27 18 136 128  0.003 22.740    7  0.125    7  0.129   13  0.038    7 0.5237   19  1.038   15  0.011   13  0.065
PANTHERS         26 19 148 137  0.031 23.248    9  0.106    9  0.113   12  0.043    9 0.5215    7  1.161    8  0.167   22 -0.081
LIGHTNING        23 19 153 119  0.054 21.859   13  0.081   13  0.082    3  0.225   12 0.5172    3  1.220    1  0.425   17  0.026
SENATORS         22 21 124 120 -0.004 21.618   14  0.014   14  0.012   14  0.036   14 0.5029   25  0.963   20 -0.079    7  0.150
CANADIENS        21 22 131 143 -0.009 21.634   15 -0.013   15 -0.018   18 -0.038   15 0.4974    8  1.158   11  0.082   24 -0.158
BRUINS           22 24 122 144 -0.004 23.331   17 -0.027   16 -0.029   25 -0.119   16 0.4953   27  0.925   29 -0.277   16  0.039
RED WINGS        20 23 124 139 -0.088 20.369   21 -0.084   21 -0.082   27 -0.134   24 0.4816   12  1.101   23 -0.085   25 -0.183
SABRES           17 27 136 148 -0.012 22.131   28 -0.145   29 -0.145   22 -0.074   29 0.4720    5  1.215   10  0.118   29 -0.267

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      179 174 0.507    1  0.031
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 176 180 0.494    2  0.011
ATLANTIC DIVISION     178 173 0.507    3 -0.006
PACIFIC DIVISION      172 178 0.491    4 -0.034

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.075 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Jan 16 05:30:13 2025
games through: Wed Jan 15 2025

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