Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        47 36 10219  9983  0.005 39.818   17  0.146   17  0.143    9  0.246   16 0.5143    1  4.102    1  0.972   25 -0.480
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.029 39.975   21 -0.180   21 -0.172   21 -0.200   21 0.4813    2  4.054   10  0.265   27 -0.664
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.067 39.854   29 -0.837   29 -0.859   27 -0.596   29 0.4203    3  4.047   19 -0.169   30 -1.023
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.021 41.541   22 -0.265   22 -0.261   24 -0.341   22 0.4748    4  4.033   15  0.013   28 -0.696
BUCKS         49 33  9756  9541  0.003 39.338   11  0.222   11  0.223   15  0.128   11 0.5217    5  4.027    5  0.447   21 -0.191
MAVERICKS     50 32  9664  9483  0.026 40.141    7  0.273    6  0.274   10  0.203    6 0.5280    6  4.021    4  0.491   19 -0.085
LAKERS        49 35  9912  9845  0.048 42.093   10  0.241    8  0.245   14  0.139   10 0.5242    7  4.020    6  0.422   20 -0.143
THUNDER       57 25  9847  9239  0.052 39.800    2  0.511    3  0.499    2  0.497    2 0.5494    8  4.002    3  0.684    9  0.310
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.038 40.944   15  0.161   15  0.158   11  0.200   14 0.5163    9  3.998    7  0.366   16  0.034
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.048 39.877   25 -0.498   25 -0.494   26 -0.592   25 0.4504   10  3.989   25 -0.469   29 -0.715
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.012 41.553   26 -0.535   26 -0.536   22 -0.284   26 0.4481   11  3.984   20 -0.189   23 -0.379
KINGS         47 36  9676  9509  0.061 41.708   12  0.202   12  0.200    8  0.253   12 0.5212   12  3.983    9  0.340   12  0.165
SUNS          49 33  9532  9281  0.028 39.986    8  0.248    9  0.244    7  0.295    8 0.5253   13  3.975    8  0.345   10  0.245
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.059 40.134   30 -0.863   30 -0.888   28 -0.605   30 0.4183   14  3.974   27 -0.561   26 -0.649
CLIPPERS      51 31  9481  9212  0.037 40.224    5  0.315    5  0.318   12  0.150    5 0.5321   15  3.973   13  0.186   14  0.114
CELTICS       64 18  9887  8957  0.031 38.528    1  0.724    1  0.709    1  0.734    1 0.5652   16  3.969    2  0.752    2  0.717
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.021 40.178   19  0.015   19  0.017   18  0.076   19 0.5020   17  3.951   18  0.001   13  0.151
PELICANS      49 34  9542  9184  0.041 40.624    9  0.242   10  0.234    6  0.300    9 0.5246   18  3.949   12  0.217    7  0.383
76ERS         48 35  9502  9251 -0.017 39.078   14  0.166   14  0.164   16  0.103   15 0.5147   19  3.948   16  0.012   11  0.195
NUGGETS       57 25  9418  8987  0.039 39.852    3  0.509    2  0.506    4  0.381    3 0.5487   20  3.941   11  0.254    6  0.507
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         40 43  9337  9440 -0.037 39.521   20 -0.069   20 -0.070   20 -0.077   20 0.4919   21  3.929   22 -0.261   15  0.107
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.059 40.181   28 -0.623   28 -0.617   30 -0.673   28 0.4387   22  3.925   28 -0.878   24 -0.469
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.031 39.617   23 -0.285   23 -0.285   23 -0.286   23 0.4708   23  3.923   26 -0.500   17 -0.071
CAVALIERS     48 34  9236  9038 -0.014 38.853   13  0.181   13  0.179   19  0.064   13 0.5171   24  3.915   21 -0.195    8  0.322
KNICKS        50 32  9249  8873  0.022 39.306    6  0.275    7  0.272    5  0.327    7 0.5253   25  3.907   14  0.029    3  0.626
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.003 41.685   27 -0.592   27 -0.589   29 -0.610   27 0.4450   26  3.896   30 -0.959   22 -0.260
TIMBERWOLVES  56 26  9264  8735  0.045 39.722    4  0.472    4  0.459    3  0.413    4 0.5462   27  3.884   17  0.002    1  0.823
MAGIC         47 35  9058  8892 -0.024 38.610   16  0.154   16  0.154   17  0.103   17 0.5135   28  3.883   24 -0.313    5  0.519
HEAT          46 37  9136  8993 -0.030 38.995   18  0.092   18  0.096   13  0.143   18 0.5084   29  3.883   23 -0.274    4  0.561
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.015 40.958   24 -0.404   24 -0.396   25 -0.511   24 0.4607   30  3.880   29 -0.940   18 -0.082
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        49 35  9912  9845  0.048 42.093   10  0.241    8  0.245   14  0.139   10 0.5242    7  4.020    6  0.422   20 -0.143
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.038 40.944   15  0.161   15  0.158   11  0.200   14 0.5163    9  3.998    7  0.366   16  0.034
KINGS         47 36  9676  9509  0.061 41.708   12  0.202   12  0.200    8  0.253   12 0.5212   12  3.983    9  0.340   12  0.165
SUNS          49 33  9532  9281  0.028 39.986    8  0.248    9  0.244    7  0.295    8 0.5253   13  3.975    8  0.345   10  0.245
CLIPPERS      51 31  9481  9212  0.037 40.224    5  0.315    5  0.318   12  0.150    5 0.5321   15  3.973   13  0.186   14  0.114

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.021 41.541   22 -0.265   22 -0.261   24 -0.341   22 0.4748    4  4.033   15  0.013   28 -0.696
THUNDER       57 25  9847  9239  0.052 39.800    2  0.511    3  0.499    2  0.497    2 0.5494    8  4.002    3  0.684    9  0.310
NUGGETS       57 25  9418  8987  0.039 39.852    3  0.509    2  0.506    4  0.381    3 0.5487   20  3.941   11  0.254    6  0.507
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.003 41.685   27 -0.592   27 -0.589   29 -0.610   27 0.4450   26  3.896   30 -0.959   22 -0.260
TIMBERWOLVES  56 26  9264  8735  0.045 39.722    4  0.472    4  0.459    3  0.413    4 0.5462   27  3.884   17  0.002    1  0.823

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     50 32  9664  9483  0.026 40.141    7  0.273    6  0.274   10  0.203    6 0.5280    6  4.021    4  0.491   19 -0.085
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.012 41.553   26 -0.535   26 -0.536   22 -0.284   26 0.4481   11  3.984   20 -0.189   23 -0.379
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.021 40.178   19  0.015   19  0.017   18  0.076   19 0.5020   17  3.951   18  0.001   13  0.151
PELICANS      49 34  9542  9184  0.041 40.624    9  0.242   10  0.234    6  0.300    9 0.5246   18  3.949   12  0.217    7  0.383
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.015 40.958   24 -0.404   24 -0.396   25 -0.511   24 0.4607   30  3.880   29 -0.940   18 -0.082

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        47 36 10219  9983  0.005 39.818   17  0.146   17  0.143    9  0.246   16 0.5143    1  4.102    1  0.972   25 -0.480
BUCKS         49 33  9756  9541  0.003 39.338   11  0.222   11  0.223   15  0.128   11 0.5217    5  4.027    5  0.447   21 -0.191
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.059 40.134   30 -0.863   30 -0.888   28 -0.605   30 0.4183   14  3.974   27 -0.561   26 -0.649
BULLS         40 43  9337  9440 -0.037 39.521   20 -0.069   20 -0.070   20 -0.077   20 0.4919   21  3.929   22 -0.261   15  0.107
CAVALIERS     48 34  9236  9038 -0.014 38.853   13  0.181   13  0.179   19  0.064   13 0.5171   24  3.915   21 -0.195    8  0.322

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.029 39.975   21 -0.180   21 -0.172   21 -0.200   21 0.4813    2  4.054   10  0.265   27 -0.664
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.067 39.854   29 -0.837   29 -0.859   27 -0.596   29 0.4203    3  4.047   19 -0.169   30 -1.023
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.059 40.181   28 -0.623   28 -0.617   30 -0.673   28 0.4387   22  3.925   28 -0.878   24 -0.469
MAGIC         47 35  9058  8892 -0.024 38.610   16  0.154   16  0.154   17  0.103   17 0.5135   28  3.883   24 -0.313    5  0.519
HEAT          46 37  9136  8993 -0.030 38.995   18  0.092   18  0.096   13  0.143   18 0.5084   29  3.883   23 -0.274    4  0.561

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.048 39.877   25 -0.498   25 -0.494   26 -0.592   25 0.4504   10  3.989   25 -0.469   29 -0.715
CELTICS       64 18  9887  8957  0.031 38.528    1  0.724    1  0.709    1  0.734    1 0.5652   16  3.969    2  0.752    2  0.717
76ERS         48 35  9502  9251 -0.017 39.078   14  0.166   14  0.164   16  0.103   15 0.5147   19  3.948   16  0.012   11  0.195
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.031 39.617   23 -0.285   23 -0.285   23 -0.286   23 0.4708   23  3.923   26 -0.500   17 -0.071
KNICKS        50 32  9249  8873  0.022 39.306    6  0.275    7  0.272    5  0.327    7 0.5253   25  3.907   14  0.029    3  0.626

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION   242 172 0.585    1  0.201
ATLANTIC DIVISION  219 192 0.533    2  0.122
NORTHWEST DIVISION 222 188 0.541    3  0.112
CENTRAL DIVISION   198 214 0.481    4 -0.054
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 189 222 0.460    5 -0.070
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 165 247 0.400    6 -0.295

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.176 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Apr 18 05:30:20 2024
games through: Wed Apr 17 2024

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