Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       39 10 5705 5114  0.071 24.489    1  0.716    1  0.722    1  0.802    1 0.5726   22  3.919    4  0.608    1  0.996
CAVALIERS     40  9 6009 5478 -0.013 22.810    2  0.701    2  0.713    2  0.647    2 0.5701    4  4.038    2  1.068    7  0.226
CELTICS       35 15 5865 5424 -0.009 23.796    3  0.422    4  0.412    3  0.512    3 0.5449   20  3.941    6  0.433    3  0.592
ROCKETS       32 17 5573 5330  0.126 26.123    4  0.422    3  0.419    5  0.360    4 0.5442   23  3.918   11  0.163    5  0.556
GRIZZLIES     34 16 6174 5780 -0.020 23.719    5  0.377    5  0.367    4  0.447    5 0.5388    1  4.078    1  1.087   23 -0.192
KNICKS        33 17 5893 5565 -0.063 23.053    6  0.297    7  0.284    6  0.335    6 0.5303    8  3.989    5  0.501    9  0.168
NUGGETS       31 19 6028 5820  0.040 25.376    7  0.293    6  0.285    7  0.289    7 0.5287    3  4.043    3  0.740   21 -0.161
LAKERS        28 19 5273 5279 -0.000 23.687    8  0.222    8  0.217   14  0.041    8 0.5229   19  3.944   14 -0.023   10  0.106
CLIPPERS      28 21 5405 5252  0.036 24.784    9  0.187    9  0.175    9  0.241    9 0.5179   28  3.885   19 -0.119    2  0.602
PACERS        28 20 5575 5521 -0.035 23.385   10  0.165   10  0.151   10  0.127   10 0.5166    6  4.009    7  0.399   20 -0.146
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIMBERWOLVES  27 23 5553 5402  0.053 25.770   11  0.129   11  0.116    8  0.260   11 0.5136   26  3.892   17 -0.065    4  0.585
BUCKS         27 22 5583 5494 -0.030 23.784   14  0.081   14  0.076   12  0.087   12 0.5088   14  3.962   13  0.112   12  0.062
MAVERICKS     26 24 5764 5664  0.061 25.916   12  0.106   12  0.097   11  0.094   13 0.5086   10  3.978   10  0.201   14 -0.014
WARRIORS      25 24 5446 5457  0.055 25.692   13  0.086   13  0.083   17 -0.068   14 0.5068   21  3.930   20 -0.204   11  0.068
KINGS         25 24 5706 5646  0.007 24.635   15  0.031   15  0.026   13  0.075   15 0.5030    7  3.997    8  0.281   19 -0.130
PISTONS       25 25 5634 5686 -0.016 25.014   17 -0.011   17 -0.011   15 -0.042   16 0.5006   17  3.954   15 -0.055   15 -0.029
HEAT          24 23 5205 5196 -0.039 22.957   16 -0.007   16 -0.008   16 -0.050   17 0.5004   25  3.905   24 -0.313    8  0.213
SUNS          25 24 5541 5582 -0.079 23.345   18 -0.041   18 -0.040   19 -0.124   18 0.4974   12  3.970   16 -0.057   22 -0.191
HAWKS         23 27 5795 5951 -0.008 25.560   19 -0.080   19 -0.077   20 -0.178   19 0.4914    5  4.016   12  0.128   26 -0.484
MAGIC         24 27 5284 5373 -0.040 25.212   20 -0.096   20 -0.094   25 -0.271   20 0.4905   30  3.811   30 -0.991    6  0.448
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         21 26 5287 5360  0.017 24.155   21 -0.098   21 -0.095   18 -0.088   21 0.4888   16  3.955   18 -0.098   18 -0.078
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 29 5450 5731 -0.007 25.783   22 -0.183   22 -0.167   24 -0.264   22 0.4813   18  3.949   23 -0.304   24 -0.223
BULLS         21 29 5826 5995 -0.054 24.737   23 -0.219   23 -0.205   23 -0.255   23 0.4767    2  4.047    9  0.219   29 -0.728
76ERS         19 29 5235 5408 -0.003 24.562   24 -0.231   24 -0.222   21 -0.179   24 0.4759   24  3.915   25 -0.391   13  0.033
RAPTORS       16 33 5449 5700  0.033 25.954   26 -0.361   26 -0.355   22 -0.247   25 0.4638   13  3.964   21 -0.212   25 -0.281
NETS          16 33 5171 5507  0.018 25.848   25 -0.355   25 -0.344   28 -0.451   26 0.4621   29  3.879   29 -0.844   16 -0.058
PELICANS      12 38 5493 5913 -0.028 25.976   29 -0.604   28 -0.613   29 -0.476   27 0.4394   15  3.961   26 -0.457   27 -0.496
JAZZ          11 37 5336 5682  0.004 25.016   27 -0.593   27 -0.602   27 -0.397   28 0.4375    9  3.986   22 -0.248   28 -0.546
HORNETS       12 35 5029 5273 -0.090 22.894   28 -0.601   29 -0.614   26 -0.397   29 0.4372   27  3.892   27 -0.725   17 -0.069
WIZARDS        8 41 5257 5961  0.014 26.799   30 -0.754   30 -0.764   30 -0.866   30 0.4250   11  3.976   28 -0.768   30 -0.964
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        28 19 5273 5279 -0.000 23.687    8  0.222    8  0.217   14  0.041    8 0.5229   19  3.944   14 -0.023   10  0.106
CLIPPERS      28 21 5405 5252  0.036 24.784    9  0.187    9  0.175    9  0.241    9 0.5179   28  3.885   19 -0.119    2  0.602
WARRIORS      25 24 5446 5457  0.055 25.692   13  0.086   13  0.083   17 -0.068   14 0.5068   21  3.930   20 -0.204   11  0.068
KINGS         25 24 5706 5646  0.007 24.635   15  0.031   15  0.026   13  0.075   15 0.5030    7  3.997    8  0.281   19 -0.130
SUNS          25 24 5541 5582 -0.079 23.345   18 -0.041   18 -0.040   19 -0.124   18 0.4974   12  3.970   16 -0.057   22 -0.191

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       39 10 5705 5114  0.071 24.489    1  0.716    1  0.722    1  0.802    1 0.5726   22  3.919    4  0.608    1  0.996
NUGGETS       31 19 6028 5820  0.040 25.376    7  0.293    6  0.285    7  0.289    7 0.5287    3  4.043    3  0.740   21 -0.161
TIMBERWOLVES  27 23 5553 5402  0.053 25.770   11  0.129   11  0.116    8  0.260   11 0.5136   26  3.892   17 -0.065    4  0.585
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 29 5450 5731 -0.007 25.783   22 -0.183   22 -0.167   24 -0.264   22 0.4813   18  3.949   23 -0.304   24 -0.223
JAZZ          11 37 5336 5682  0.004 25.016   27 -0.593   27 -0.602   27 -0.397   28 0.4375    9  3.986   22 -0.248   28 -0.546

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       32 17 5573 5330  0.126 26.123    4  0.422    3  0.419    5  0.360    4 0.5442   23  3.918   11  0.163    5  0.556
GRIZZLIES     34 16 6174 5780 -0.020 23.719    5  0.377    5  0.367    4  0.447    5 0.5388    1  4.078    1  1.087   23 -0.192
MAVERICKS     26 24 5764 5664  0.061 25.916   12  0.106   12  0.097   11  0.094   13 0.5086   10  3.978   10  0.201   14 -0.014
SPURS         21 26 5287 5360  0.017 24.155   21 -0.098   21 -0.095   18 -0.088   21 0.4888   16  3.955   18 -0.098   18 -0.078
PELICANS      12 38 5493 5913 -0.028 25.976   29 -0.604   28 -0.613   29 -0.476   27 0.4394   15  3.961   26 -0.457   27 -0.496

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     40  9 6009 5478 -0.013 22.810    2  0.701    2  0.713    2  0.647    2 0.5701    4  4.038    2  1.068    7  0.226
PACERS        28 20 5575 5521 -0.035 23.385   10  0.165   10  0.151   10  0.127   10 0.5166    6  4.009    7  0.399   20 -0.146
BUCKS         27 22 5583 5494 -0.030 23.784   14  0.081   14  0.076   12  0.087   12 0.5088   14  3.962   13  0.112   12  0.062
PISTONS       25 25 5634 5686 -0.016 25.014   17 -0.011   17 -0.011   15 -0.042   16 0.5006   17  3.954   15 -0.055   15 -0.029
BULLS         21 29 5826 5995 -0.054 24.737   23 -0.219   23 -0.205   23 -0.255   23 0.4767    2  4.047    9  0.219   29 -0.728

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          24 23 5205 5196 -0.039 22.957   16 -0.007   16 -0.008   16 -0.050   17 0.5004   25  3.905   24 -0.313    8  0.213
HAWKS         23 27 5795 5951 -0.008 25.560   19 -0.080   19 -0.077   20 -0.178   19 0.4914    5  4.016   12  0.128   26 -0.484
MAGIC         24 27 5284 5373 -0.040 25.212   20 -0.096   20 -0.094   25 -0.271   20 0.4905   30  3.811   30 -0.991    6  0.448
HORNETS       12 35 5029 5273 -0.090 22.894   28 -0.601   29 -0.614   26 -0.397   29 0.4372   27  3.892   27 -0.725   17 -0.069
WIZARDS        8 41 5257 5961  0.014 26.799   30 -0.754   30 -0.764   30 -0.866   30 0.4250   11  3.976   28 -0.768   30 -0.964

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       35 15 5865 5424 -0.009 23.796    3  0.422    4  0.412    3  0.512    3 0.5449   20  3.941    6  0.433    3  0.592
KNICKS        33 17 5893 5565 -0.063 23.053    6  0.297    7  0.284    6  0.335    6 0.5303    8  3.989    5  0.501    9  0.168
76ERS         19 29 5235 5408 -0.003 24.562   24 -0.231   24 -0.222   21 -0.179   24 0.4759   24  3.915   25 -0.391   13  0.033
RAPTORS       16 33 5449 5700  0.033 25.954   26 -0.361   26 -0.355   22 -0.247   25 0.4638   13  3.964   21 -0.212   25 -0.281
NETS          16 33 5171 5507  0.018 25.848   25 -0.355   25 -0.344   28 -0.451   26 0.4621   29  3.879   29 -0.844   16 -0.058

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 129 118 0.522    1  0.124
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 125 121 0.508    2  0.102
CENTRAL DIVISION   141 105 0.573    3  0.098
PACIFIC DIVISION   131 112 0.539    4  0.048
ATLANTIC DIVISION  119 127 0.484    5 -0.013
SOUTHEAST DIVISION  91 153 0.373    6 -0.369

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.146 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Feb  4 05:30:10 2025
games through: Mon Feb  3 2025

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