Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       64 13 9231 8229  0.078 38.231    1  0.894    1  0.901    1  0.937    1 0.5810   17  3.958    2  0.915    1  0.958
CAVALIERS     61 15 9299 8529  0.014 36.135    2  0.758    2  0.762    2  0.624    2 0.5702    5  4.036    1  1.008    9  0.240
CELTICS       56 20 8869 8201  0.025 36.809    3  0.578    3  0.575    3  0.569    3 0.5565   23  3.932    5  0.416    2  0.722
ROCKETS       50 27 8804 8395  0.048 38.523    4  0.385    4  0.380    6  0.363    4 0.5371   24  3.923   12  0.161    6  0.565
KNICKS        48 28 8823 8508 -0.019 36.411    5  0.291    5  0.288   11  0.190    5 0.5286   16  3.961   10  0.185   10  0.195
NUGGETS       47 30 9311 9004  0.018 38.026    6  0.266    7  0.263    9  0.231    6 0.5263    4  4.045    4  0.661   18 -0.199
LAKERS        46 29 8479 8417  0.001 37.260    7  0.258    6  0.266   14  0.088    7 0.5261   20  3.944   18 -0.008   12  0.183
WARRIORS      44 31 8527 8315  0.039 37.871    8  0.237    8  0.237    8  0.239    9 0.5225   21  3.943   14  0.138    8  0.339
TIMBERWOLVES  44 32 8676 8332  0.063 38.641    9  0.230    9  0.222    4  0.400    8 0.5228   25  3.919   11  0.182    4  0.619
CLIPPERS      44 32 8526 8226  0.045 38.227   10  0.218   10  0.214    5  0.370   10 0.5211   26  3.896   16  0.033    3  0.707
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     44 32 9271 8916  0.026 37.562   11  0.200   11  0.195   10  0.214   11 0.5196    1  4.070    3  0.782   23 -0.354
PACERS        45 31 8900 8752 -0.029 36.680   12  0.188   12  0.187   12  0.179   12 0.5193    6  4.007    6  0.411   16 -0.053
BUCKS         42 34 8700 8549  0.007 37.591   13  0.124   13  0.122   13  0.147   13 0.5133   15  3.965   13  0.160   13  0.133
PISTONS       42 34 8767 8603 -0.001 37.344   14  0.108   14  0.108    7  0.247   14 0.5122   13  3.973    9  0.304   11  0.190
MAVERICKS     38 39 8851 8867  0.023 39.043   15  0.013   15  0.016   21 -0.120   15 0.5004    9  3.987   17  0.009   20 -0.249
KINGS         36 40 8793 8796  0.001 37.906   16 -0.055   16 -0.058   16 -0.059   17 0.4935   10  3.986   15  0.061   17 -0.180
HAWKS         36 40 8953 9086 -0.012 37.962   17 -0.061   17 -0.061   17 -0.076   16 0.4939    3  4.047    8  0.368   26 -0.519
MAGIC         37 40 8087 8138 -0.048 37.215   18 -0.085   18 -0.085   20 -0.102   18 0.4915   30  3.819   28 -0.813    5  0.609
SUNS          35 41 8694 8863 -0.009 38.097   19 -0.096   19 -0.094   22 -0.153   19 0.4902   11  3.984   19 -0.041   21 -0.266
HEAT          35 41 8347 8345 -0.011 37.580   20 -0.102   20 -0.103   15  0.012   20 0.4900   28  3.884   23 -0.382    7  0.406
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         34 42 8938 9121 -0.016 37.964   21 -0.137   21 -0.133   19 -0.087   21 0.4873    2  4.053    7  0.389   27 -0.562
TRAIL BLAZERS 33 43 8427 8689  0.014 39.021   22 -0.141   22 -0.136   18 -0.078   22 0.4863   22  3.942   21 -0.181   14  0.026
SPURS         32 44 8666 8866 -0.005 38.284   23 -0.185   23 -0.182   23 -0.208   23 0.4808    8  3.994   20 -0.044   24 -0.372
RAPTORS       28 48 8417 8760 -0.026 38.206   24 -0.329   24 -0.332   24 -0.291   24 0.4686   18  3.948   22 -0.366   19 -0.217
NETS          25 51 7996 8500 -0.032 38.446   25 -0.422   25 -0.416   25 -0.489   25 0.4594   29  3.869   29 -0.956   15 -0.022
76ERS         23 53 8327 8793 -0.039 38.118   26 -0.494   26 -0.495   26 -0.497   26 0.4519   19  3.946   26 -0.584   25 -0.411
PELICANS      21 55 8362 9021 -0.007 39.455   27 -0.538   27 -0.540   27 -0.542   27 0.4484   14  3.967   25 -0.518   28 -0.566
HORNETS       19 57 8023 8636 -0.078 37.451   28 -0.658   28 -0.662   29 -0.664   28 0.4370   27  3.894   30 -1.010   22 -0.317
WIZARDS       17 59 8260 9180 -0.062 38.413   29 -0.723   29 -0.718   30 -0.810   29 0.4327   12  3.983   27 -0.706   30 -0.914
JAZZ          16 61 8580 9267 -0.014 39.722   30 -0.723   30 -0.726   28 -0.637   30 0.4312    7  3.997   24 -0.457   29 -0.816
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        46 29 8479 8417  0.001 37.260    7  0.258    6  0.266   14  0.088    7 0.5261   20  3.944   18 -0.008   12  0.183
WARRIORS      44 31 8527 8315  0.039 37.871    8  0.237    8  0.237    8  0.239    9 0.5225   21  3.943   14  0.138    8  0.339
CLIPPERS      44 32 8526 8226  0.045 38.227   10  0.218   10  0.214    5  0.370   10 0.5211   26  3.896   16  0.033    3  0.707
KINGS         36 40 8793 8796  0.001 37.906   16 -0.055   16 -0.058   16 -0.059   17 0.4935   10  3.986   15  0.061   17 -0.180
SUNS          35 41 8694 8863 -0.009 38.097   19 -0.096   19 -0.094   22 -0.153   19 0.4902   11  3.984   19 -0.041   21 -0.266

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       64 13 9231 8229  0.078 38.231    1  0.894    1  0.901    1  0.937    1 0.5810   17  3.958    2  0.915    1  0.958
NUGGETS       47 30 9311 9004  0.018 38.026    6  0.266    7  0.263    9  0.231    6 0.5263    4  4.045    4  0.661   18 -0.199
TIMBERWOLVES  44 32 8676 8332  0.063 38.641    9  0.230    9  0.222    4  0.400    8 0.5228   25  3.919   11  0.182    4  0.619
TRAIL BLAZERS 33 43 8427 8689  0.014 39.021   22 -0.141   22 -0.136   18 -0.078   22 0.4863   22  3.942   21 -0.181   14  0.026
JAZZ          16 61 8580 9267 -0.014 39.722   30 -0.723   30 -0.726   28 -0.637   30 0.4312    7  3.997   24 -0.457   29 -0.816

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       50 27 8804 8395  0.048 38.523    4  0.385    4  0.380    6  0.363    4 0.5371   24  3.923   12  0.161    6  0.565
GRIZZLIES     44 32 9271 8916  0.026 37.562   11  0.200   11  0.195   10  0.214   11 0.5196    1  4.070    3  0.782   23 -0.354
MAVERICKS     38 39 8851 8867  0.023 39.043   15  0.013   15  0.016   21 -0.120   15 0.5004    9  3.987   17  0.009   20 -0.249
SPURS         32 44 8666 8866 -0.005 38.284   23 -0.185   23 -0.182   23 -0.208   23 0.4808    8  3.994   20 -0.044   24 -0.372
PELICANS      21 55 8362 9021 -0.007 39.455   27 -0.538   27 -0.540   27 -0.542   27 0.4484   14  3.967   25 -0.518   28 -0.566

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     61 15 9299 8529  0.014 36.135    2  0.758    2  0.762    2  0.624    2 0.5702    5  4.036    1  1.008    9  0.240
PACERS        45 31 8900 8752 -0.029 36.680   12  0.188   12  0.187   12  0.179   12 0.5193    6  4.007    6  0.411   16 -0.053
BUCKS         42 34 8700 8549  0.007 37.591   13  0.124   13  0.122   13  0.147   13 0.5133   15  3.965   13  0.160   13  0.133
PISTONS       42 34 8767 8603 -0.001 37.344   14  0.108   14  0.108    7  0.247   14 0.5122   13  3.973    9  0.304   11  0.190
BULLS         34 42 8938 9121 -0.016 37.964   21 -0.137   21 -0.133   19 -0.087   21 0.4873    2  4.053    7  0.389   27 -0.562

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         36 40 8953 9086 -0.012 37.962   17 -0.061   17 -0.061   17 -0.076   16 0.4939    3  4.047    8  0.368   26 -0.519
MAGIC         37 40 8087 8138 -0.048 37.215   18 -0.085   18 -0.085   20 -0.102   18 0.4915   30  3.819   28 -0.813    5  0.609
HEAT          35 41 8347 8345 -0.011 37.580   20 -0.102   20 -0.103   15  0.012   20 0.4900   28  3.884   23 -0.382    7  0.406
HORNETS       19 57 8023 8636 -0.078 37.451   28 -0.658   28 -0.662   29 -0.664   28 0.4370   27  3.894   30 -1.010   22 -0.317
WIZARDS       17 59 8260 9180 -0.062 38.413   29 -0.723   29 -0.718   30 -0.810   29 0.4327   12  3.983   27 -0.706   30 -0.914

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       56 20 8869 8201  0.025 36.809    3  0.578    3  0.575    3  0.569    3 0.5565   23  3.932    5  0.416    2  0.722
KNICKS        48 28 8823 8508 -0.019 36.411    5  0.291    5  0.288   11  0.190    5 0.5286   16  3.961   10  0.185   10  0.195
RAPTORS       28 48 8417 8760 -0.026 38.206   24 -0.329   24 -0.332   24 -0.291   24 0.4686   18  3.948   22 -0.366   19 -0.217
NETS          25 51 7996 8500 -0.032 38.446   25 -0.422   25 -0.416   25 -0.489   25 0.4594   29  3.869   29 -0.956   15 -0.022
76ERS         23 53 8327 8793 -0.039 38.118   26 -0.494   26 -0.495   26 -0.497   26 0.4519   19  3.946   26 -0.584   25 -0.411

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   224 156 0.589    1  0.188
NORTHWEST DIVISION 204 179 0.533    2  0.164
PACIFIC DIVISION   205 173 0.542    3  0.091
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 185 197 0.484    4 -0.003
ATLANTIC DIVISION  180 200 0.474    5 -0.085
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 144 237 0.378    6 -0.361

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.141 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Apr  3 05:30:16 2025
games through: Wed Apr  2 2025

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