Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     60 15 9175 8424  0.012 35.600    2  0.747    2  0.752    3  0.603    2 0.5694    5  4.037    1  0.991    9  0.215
THUNDER       63 13 9112 8126  0.079 37.741    1  0.885    1  0.893    1  0.931    1 0.5805   17  3.959    2  0.913    1  0.949
GRIZZLIES     44 32 9271 8916  0.026 37.579   11  0.201   11  0.196   10  0.215   11 0.5196    1  4.070    3  0.783   23 -0.353
NUGGETS       47 29 9205 8891  0.024 37.676    6  0.291    6  0.288    7  0.256    6 0.5287    4  4.047    4  0.699   18 -0.186
CELTICS       56 19 8766 8077  0.028 36.337    3  0.608    3  0.603    2  0.622    3 0.5591   23  3.931    5  0.461    2  0.784
PACERS        44 31 8781 8647 -0.021 36.454   12  0.182   12  0.181   12  0.176   12 0.5189    6  4.007    6  0.408   16 -0.056
BULLS         34 42 8938 9121 -0.016 37.985   21 -0.136   21 -0.132   19 -0.086   21 0.4874    2  4.053    7  0.389   27 -0.562
HAWKS         36 39 8835 8966 -0.015 37.388   17 -0.049   17 -0.048   18 -0.079   17 0.4953    3  4.047    8  0.365   26 -0.523
PISTONS       42 33 8664 8484 -0.015 36.455   14  0.114   14  0.113    8  0.254   14 0.5128   13  3.974    9  0.315   11  0.194
KNICKS        48 27 8718 8384 -0.030 35.593    5  0.302    5  0.298   11  0.208    5 0.5295   16  3.962   10  0.206   10  0.209
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIMBERWOLVES  44 32 8676 8332  0.063 38.657    9  0.231    9  0.223    4  0.401    8 0.5228   25  3.919   11  0.183    4  0.620
BUCKS         42 34 8700 8549  0.007 37.581   13  0.124   13  0.122   13  0.147   13 0.5133   15  3.965   12  0.160   13  0.133
WARRIORS      44 31 8527 8315  0.039 37.888    8  0.238    8  0.238    9  0.240    9 0.5225   21  3.943   13  0.140    8  0.340
ROCKETS       49 27 8661 8290  0.055 38.331    4  0.381    4  0.375    6  0.327    4 0.5370   24  3.920   14  0.112    6  0.542
KINGS         36 39 8682 8680  0.011 37.698   16 -0.030   16 -0.032   15 -0.034   16 0.4957   10  3.986   15  0.089   17 -0.157
CLIPPERS      43 32 8412 8128  0.054 38.035   10  0.213   10  0.209    5  0.368   10 0.5207   26  3.896   16  0.035    3  0.700
MAVERICKS     37 39 8731 8749  0.027 38.662   15  0.003   15  0.005   21 -0.120   15 0.4991    9  3.987   17  0.009   20 -0.249
LAKERS        46 29 8479 8417  0.002 37.296    7  0.260    7  0.267   14  0.089    7 0.5262   20  3.944   18 -0.006   12  0.184
SUNS          35 41 8694 8863 -0.008 38.121   19 -0.096   19 -0.093   22 -0.153   19 0.4902   11  3.984   19 -0.040   21 -0.265
SPURS         31 44 8553 8760 -0.010 37.658   23 -0.208   23 -0.206   23 -0.233   23 0.4785    7  3.997   20 -0.056   24 -0.410
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TRAIL BLAZERS 33 43 8427 8689  0.015 39.050   22 -0.140   22 -0.136   17 -0.076   22 0.4864   22  3.942   21 -0.180   14  0.027
RAPTORS       28 48 8417 8760 -0.026 38.207   24 -0.331   24 -0.332   24 -0.292   24 0.4686   18  3.948   22 -0.366   19 -0.218
JAZZ          16 60 8475 9124 -0.018 39.025   29 -0.717   29 -0.721   28 -0.601   29 0.4313    8  3.995   23 -0.435   29 -0.768
HEAT          34 41 8223 8242 -0.022 36.829   20 -0.133   20 -0.132   16 -0.041   20 0.4874   28  3.882   24 -0.443    7  0.362
PELICANS      21 54 8264 8907 -0.011 38.801   27 -0.533   27 -0.533   27 -0.536   27 0.4489   14  3.968   25 -0.507   28 -0.565
76ERS         23 53 8327 8793 -0.039 38.137   26 -0.495   26 -0.495   26 -0.498   26 0.4520   19  3.946   26 -0.583   25 -0.412
WIZARDS       16 59 8144 9069 -0.063 37.981   30 -0.747   30 -0.746   30 -0.834   30 0.4305   12  3.983   27 -0.728   30 -0.941
MAGIC         37 40 8087 8138 -0.049 37.202   18 -0.085   18 -0.086   20 -0.103   18 0.4915   30  3.819   28 -0.814    5  0.608
NETS          25 51 7996 8500 -0.032 38.452   25 -0.424   25 -0.417   25 -0.491   25 0.4594   29  3.869   29 -0.958   15 -0.024
HORNETS       19 56 7918 8517 -0.083 36.822   28 -0.655   28 -0.657   29 -0.662   28 0.4373   27  3.894   30 -1.008   22 -0.315
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      44 31 8527 8315  0.039 37.888    8  0.238    8  0.238    9  0.240    9 0.5225   21  3.943   13  0.140    8  0.340
KINGS         36 39 8682 8680  0.011 37.698   16 -0.030   16 -0.032   15 -0.034   16 0.4957   10  3.986   15  0.089   17 -0.157
CLIPPERS      43 32 8412 8128  0.054 38.035   10  0.213   10  0.209    5  0.368   10 0.5207   26  3.896   16  0.035    3  0.700
LAKERS        46 29 8479 8417  0.002 37.296    7  0.260    7  0.267   14  0.089    7 0.5262   20  3.944   18 -0.006   12  0.184
SUNS          35 41 8694 8863 -0.008 38.121   19 -0.096   19 -0.093   22 -0.153   19 0.4902   11  3.984   19 -0.040   21 -0.265

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       63 13 9112 8126  0.079 37.741    1  0.885    1  0.893    1  0.931    1 0.5805   17  3.959    2  0.913    1  0.949
NUGGETS       47 29 9205 8891  0.024 37.676    6  0.291    6  0.288    7  0.256    6 0.5287    4  4.047    4  0.699   18 -0.186
TIMBERWOLVES  44 32 8676 8332  0.063 38.657    9  0.231    9  0.223    4  0.401    8 0.5228   25  3.919   11  0.183    4  0.620
TRAIL BLAZERS 33 43 8427 8689  0.015 39.050   22 -0.140   22 -0.136   17 -0.076   22 0.4864   22  3.942   21 -0.180   14  0.027
JAZZ          16 60 8475 9124 -0.018 39.025   29 -0.717   29 -0.721   28 -0.601   29 0.4313    8  3.995   23 -0.435   29 -0.768

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     44 32 9271 8916  0.026 37.579   11  0.201   11  0.196   10  0.215   11 0.5196    1  4.070    3  0.783   23 -0.353
ROCKETS       49 27 8661 8290  0.055 38.331    4  0.381    4  0.375    6  0.327    4 0.5370   24  3.920   14  0.112    6  0.542
MAVERICKS     37 39 8731 8749  0.027 38.662   15  0.003   15  0.005   21 -0.120   15 0.4991    9  3.987   17  0.009   20 -0.249
SPURS         31 44 8553 8760 -0.010 37.658   23 -0.208   23 -0.206   23 -0.233   23 0.4785    7  3.997   20 -0.056   24 -0.410
PELICANS      21 54 8264 8907 -0.011 38.801   27 -0.533   27 -0.533   27 -0.536   27 0.4489   14  3.968   25 -0.507   28 -0.565

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     60 15 9175 8424  0.012 35.600    2  0.747    2  0.752    3  0.603    2 0.5694    5  4.037    1  0.991    9  0.215
PACERS        44 31 8781 8647 -0.021 36.454   12  0.182   12  0.181   12  0.176   12 0.5189    6  4.007    6  0.408   16 -0.056
BULLS         34 42 8938 9121 -0.016 37.985   21 -0.136   21 -0.132   19 -0.086   21 0.4874    2  4.053    7  0.389   27 -0.562
PISTONS       42 33 8664 8484 -0.015 36.455   14  0.114   14  0.113    8  0.254   14 0.5128   13  3.974    9  0.315   11  0.194
BUCKS         42 34 8700 8549  0.007 37.581   13  0.124   13  0.122   13  0.147   13 0.5133   15  3.965   12  0.160   13  0.133

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         36 39 8835 8966 -0.015 37.388   17 -0.049   17 -0.048   18 -0.079   17 0.4953    3  4.047    8  0.365   26 -0.523
HEAT          34 41 8223 8242 -0.022 36.829   20 -0.133   20 -0.132   16 -0.041   20 0.4874   28  3.882   24 -0.443    7  0.362
WIZARDS       16 59 8144 9069 -0.063 37.981   30 -0.747   30 -0.746   30 -0.834   30 0.4305   12  3.983   27 -0.728   30 -0.941
MAGIC         37 40 8087 8138 -0.049 37.202   18 -0.085   18 -0.086   20 -0.103   18 0.4915   30  3.819   28 -0.814    5  0.608
HORNETS       19 56 7918 8517 -0.083 36.822   28 -0.655   28 -0.657   29 -0.662   28 0.4373   27  3.894   30 -1.008   22 -0.315

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       56 19 8766 8077  0.028 36.337    3  0.608    3  0.603    2  0.622    3 0.5591   23  3.931    5  0.461    2  0.784
KNICKS        48 27 8718 8384 -0.030 35.593    5  0.302    5  0.298   11  0.208    5 0.5295   16  3.962   10  0.206   10  0.209
RAPTORS       28 48 8417 8760 -0.026 38.207   24 -0.331   24 -0.332   24 -0.292   24 0.4686   18  3.948   22 -0.366   19 -0.218
76ERS         23 53 8327 8793 -0.039 38.137   26 -0.495   26 -0.495   26 -0.498   26 0.4520   19  3.946   26 -0.583   25 -0.412
NETS          25 51 7996 8500 -0.032 38.452   25 -0.424   25 -0.417   25 -0.491   25 0.4594   29  3.869   29 -0.958   15 -0.024

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   222 155 0.589    1  0.185
NORTHWEST DIVISION 203 177 0.534    2  0.171
PACIFIC DIVISION   204 172 0.543    3  0.094
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 182 196 0.481    4 -0.009
ATLANTIC DIVISION  180 198 0.476    5 -0.078
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 142 235 0.377    6 -0.371

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.140 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Apr  2 05:30:12 2025
games through: Tue Apr  1 2025

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