Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       24 12 4477 4258  0.005 17.300    6  0.313    6  0.316    6  0.286    7 0.5352    2  4.058    1  0.670   21 -0.098
THUNDER       30  7 4486 3982 -0.033 16.676    1  0.609    1  0.621    1  0.724    1 0.5670   27  3.939    2  0.482    1  0.966
HEAT          20 16 4350 4222  0.050 18.256   13  0.150   13  0.137    9  0.209   13 0.5158    3  4.035    3  0.468   18 -0.050
SPURS         25 11 4304 4120  0.037 17.729    3  0.421    3  0.419    5  0.301    3 0.5478   12  3.995    4  0.348    9  0.254
KNICKS        24 13 4430 4258  0.012 18.131    7  0.302    7  0.304    7  0.223    8 0.5344   11  4.009    5  0.342   13  0.103
CELTICS       23 12 4122 3866 -0.000 16.705    8  0.299    8  0.295    3  0.419    6 0.5368   21  3.958    6  0.277    3  0.560
PISTONS       27  9 4278 4036 -0.031 16.838    2  0.481    2  0.482    4  0.374    2 0.5557   19  3.963    7  0.259    4  0.489
CAVALIERS     20 17 4410 4321 -0.011 17.972   15  0.082   15  0.069   13  0.109   15 0.5065    9  4.012    8  0.246   15 -0.029
ROCKETS       22 11 3940 3662  0.049 16.092    4  0.347    4  0.335    2  0.452    5 0.5401   26  3.944    9  0.239    2  0.666
TIMBERWOLVES  23 13 4304 4126 -0.070 16.362    9  0.224    9  0.218    8  0.223    9 0.5264   15  3.982   10  0.202   10  0.243
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         17 21 4502 4555  0.033 19.462   18 -0.072   18 -0.083   19 -0.072   18 0.4939    5  4.032   11  0.170   24 -0.313
JAZZ          12 23 4186 4446  0.029 18.531   23 -0.281   23 -0.268   26 -0.384   23 0.4695    1  4.086   12  0.149   30 -0.916
LAKERS        22 11 3870 3870 -0.015 16.218    5  0.327    5  0.332   18 -0.055    4 0.5402   10  4.010   13  0.073   22 -0.184
TRAIL BLAZERS 17 20 4324 4424  0.069 19.613   17 -0.009   17 -0.017   21 -0.107   17 0.4987    7  4.019   14  0.068   23 -0.283
MAGIC         20 16 4214 4156  0.080 18.782   11  0.175   11  0.167   11  0.111   11 0.5193   17  3.974   15  0.052   11  0.171
76ERS         19 15 3986 3957 -0.006 16.717   14  0.120   14  0.113   15  0.042   14 0.5132   16  3.974   16 -0.017   14  0.100
GRIZZLIES     15 20 4059 4094 -0.022 17.231   20 -0.168   20 -0.170   17 -0.045   20 0.4835   14  3.984   17 -0.052   16 -0.037
SUNS          21 15 4131 4061  0.033 18.020   10  0.199   10  0.193   10  0.155   10 0.5217   25  3.945   18 -0.055    5  0.365
HORNETS       13 23 4178 4243 -0.034 17.618   25 -0.303   25 -0.295   20 -0.072   24 0.4655   13  3.987   19 -0.064   20 -0.081
WARRIORS      19 18 4249 4205  0.049 18.877   16  0.073   16  0.058   12  0.111   16 0.5059   24  3.949   20 -0.077    7  0.299
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         17 19 4240 4377 -0.092 17.074   19 -0.114   19 -0.114   25 -0.316   19 0.4850    6  4.029   21 -0.088   26 -0.543
RAPTORS       22 15 4236 4155 -0.036 17.682   12  0.167   12  0.157   14  0.078   12 0.5159   28  3.933   22 -0.192    6  0.348
PELICANS       8 29 4261 4556  0.001 19.095   29 -0.585   29 -0.591   27 -0.434   29 0.4342    8  4.018   23 -0.266   28 -0.602
CLIPPERS      13 22 3924 3997  0.075 18.542   22 -0.206   22 -0.204   16  0.005   22 0.4754   29  3.929   24 -0.283    8  0.294
WIZARDS        9 25 3855 4229 -0.043 17.257   28 -0.497   28 -0.496   29 -0.576   28 0.4420    4  4.034   25 -0.322   29 -0.830
BUCKS         16 20 4080 4159 -0.105 16.742   21 -0.193   21 -0.192   22 -0.213   21 0.4790   22  3.956   26 -0.364   19 -0.062
MAVERICKS     13 23 4085 4229 -0.027 18.023   24 -0.298   24 -0.289   23 -0.213   25 0.4645   23  3.954   27 -0.377   17 -0.050
NETS          11 22 3612 3771 -0.015 16.620   26 -0.341   26 -0.327   24 -0.215   26 0.4594   30  3.920   28 -0.548   12  0.118
PACERS         6 30 3982 4309 -0.047 18.337   30 -0.728   30 -0.749   28 -0.519   30 0.4197   20  3.962   29 -0.639   25 -0.400
KINGS          8 28 3970 4401  0.073 20.026   27 -0.495   27 -0.492   30 -0.643   27 0.4464   18  3.972   30 -0.714   27 -0.573

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        22 11 3870 3870 -0.015 16.218    5  0.327    5  0.332   18 -0.055    4 0.5402   10  4.010   13  0.073   22 -0.184
SUNS          21 15 4131 4061  0.033 18.020   10  0.199   10  0.193   10  0.155   10 0.5217   25  3.945   18 -0.055    5  0.365
WARRIORS      19 18 4249 4205  0.049 18.877   16  0.073   16  0.058   12  0.111   16 0.5059   24  3.949   20 -0.077    7  0.299
CLIPPERS      13 22 3924 3997  0.075 18.542   22 -0.206   22 -0.204   16  0.005   22 0.4754   29  3.929   24 -0.283    8  0.294
KINGS          8 28 3970 4401  0.073 20.026   27 -0.495   27 -0.492   30 -0.643   27 0.4464   18  3.972   30 -0.714   27 -0.573

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       24 12 4477 4258  0.005 17.300    6  0.313    6  0.316    6  0.286    7 0.5352    2  4.058    1  0.670   21 -0.098
THUNDER       30  7 4486 3982 -0.033 16.676    1  0.609    1  0.621    1  0.724    1 0.5670   27  3.939    2  0.482    1  0.966
TIMBERWOLVES  23 13 4304 4126 -0.070 16.362    9  0.224    9  0.218    8  0.223    9 0.5264   15  3.982   10  0.202   10  0.243
JAZZ          12 23 4186 4446  0.029 18.531   23 -0.281   23 -0.268   26 -0.384   23 0.4695    1  4.086   12  0.149   30 -0.916
TRAIL BLAZERS 17 20 4324 4424  0.069 19.613   17 -0.009   17 -0.017   21 -0.107   17 0.4987    7  4.019   14  0.068   23 -0.283

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         25 11 4304 4120  0.037 17.729    3  0.421    3  0.419    5  0.301    3 0.5478   12  3.995    4  0.348    9  0.254
ROCKETS       22 11 3940 3662  0.049 16.092    4  0.347    4  0.335    2  0.452    5 0.5401   26  3.944    9  0.239    2  0.666
GRIZZLIES     15 20 4059 4094 -0.022 17.231   20 -0.168   20 -0.170   17 -0.045   20 0.4835   14  3.984   17 -0.052   16 -0.037
PELICANS       8 29 4261 4556  0.001 19.095   29 -0.585   29 -0.591   27 -0.434   29 0.4342    8  4.018   23 -0.266   28 -0.602
MAVERICKS     13 23 4085 4229 -0.027 18.023   24 -0.298   24 -0.289   23 -0.213   25 0.4645   23  3.954   27 -0.377   17 -0.050

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PISTONS       27  9 4278 4036 -0.031 16.838    2  0.481    2  0.482    4  0.374    2 0.5557   19  3.963    7  0.259    4  0.489
CAVALIERS     20 17 4410 4321 -0.011 17.972   15  0.082   15  0.069   13  0.109   15 0.5065    9  4.012    8  0.246   15 -0.029
BULLS         17 19 4240 4377 -0.092 17.074   19 -0.114   19 -0.114   25 -0.316   19 0.4850    6  4.029   21 -0.088   26 -0.543
BUCKS         16 20 4080 4159 -0.105 16.742   21 -0.193   21 -0.192   22 -0.213   21 0.4790   22  3.956   26 -0.364   19 -0.062
PACERS         6 30 3982 4309 -0.047 18.337   30 -0.728   30 -0.749   28 -0.519   30 0.4197   20  3.962   29 -0.639   25 -0.400

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          20 16 4350 4222  0.050 18.256   13  0.150   13  0.137    9  0.209   13 0.5158    3  4.035    3  0.468   18 -0.050
HAWKS         17 21 4502 4555  0.033 19.462   18 -0.072   18 -0.083   19 -0.072   18 0.4939    5  4.032   11  0.170   24 -0.313
MAGIC         20 16 4214 4156  0.080 18.782   11  0.175   11  0.167   11  0.111   11 0.5193   17  3.974   15  0.052   11  0.171
HORNETS       13 23 4178 4243 -0.034 17.618   25 -0.303   25 -0.295   20 -0.072   24 0.4655   13  3.987   19 -0.064   20 -0.081
WIZARDS        9 25 3855 4229 -0.043 17.257   28 -0.497   28 -0.496   29 -0.576   28 0.4420    4  4.034   25 -0.322   29 -0.830

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KNICKS        24 13 4430 4258  0.012 18.131    7  0.302    7  0.304    7  0.223    8 0.5344   11  4.009    5  0.342   13  0.103
CELTICS       23 12 4122 3866 -0.000 16.705    8  0.299    8  0.295    3  0.419    6 0.5368   21  3.958    6  0.277    3  0.560
76ERS         19 15 3986 3957 -0.006 16.717   14  0.120   14  0.113   15  0.042   14 0.5132   16  3.974   16 -0.017   14  0.100
RAPTORS       22 15 4236 4155 -0.036 17.682   12  0.167   12  0.157   14  0.078   12 0.5159   28  3.933   22 -0.192    6  0.348
NETS          11 22 3612 3771 -0.015 16.620   26 -0.341   26 -0.327   24 -0.215   26 0.4594   30  3.920   28 -0.548   12  0.118

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 106  75 0.586    1  0.201
ATLANTIC DIVISION   99  77 0.562    2  0.133
SOUTHWEST DIVISION  83  94 0.469    3  0.011
SOUTHEAST DIVISION  79 101 0.439    4 -0.100
PACIFIC DIVISION    83  94 0.469    5 -0.101
CENTRAL DIVISION    86  95 0.475    6 -0.145

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.169 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.018 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Jan  6 05:30:14 2026
games through: Mon Jan  5 2026

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