Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       30  7 4486 3982 -0.026 16.770    1  0.612    1  0.623    1  0.725    1 0.5672   27  3.940    2  0.492    1  0.957
ROCKETS       22 11 3940 3662  0.053 16.138    4  0.352    5  0.337    2  0.453    5 0.5406   26  3.945    9  0.247    2  0.659
CELTICS       23 12 4122 3866 -0.001 16.701    7  0.296    8  0.293    3  0.417    6 0.5369   21  3.959    6  0.281    3  0.553
PISTONS       27  9 4278 4036 -0.034 16.802    2  0.479    2  0.477    4  0.370    2 0.5558   19  3.964    7  0.261    4  0.479
SUNS          21 15 4131 4061  0.041 18.125   10  0.200   10  0.199    9  0.161   10 0.5219   25  3.946   17 -0.039    5  0.362
RAPTORS       22 15 4236 4155 -0.039 17.654   11  0.160   11  0.156   13  0.076   11 0.5161   28  3.933   22 -0.190    6  0.342
TIMBERWOLVES  24 13 4426 4220 -0.057 16.929    9  0.246    9  0.246    7  0.286    9 0.5290   15  3.978    8  0.251    7  0.322
WARRIORS      19 18 4249 4205  0.051 18.897   16  0.069   16  0.060   11  0.112   16 0.5057   23  3.950   20 -0.070    8  0.294
CLIPPERS      13 22 3924 3997  0.075 18.552   22 -0.206   22 -0.202   16  0.007   22 0.4759   29  3.930   23 -0.273    9  0.287
SPURS         25 12 4409 4226  0.041 18.310    3  0.391    3  0.384    5  0.295    3 0.5439   12  3.991    5  0.325   10  0.264
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         20 17 4326 4276  0.056 19.003   12  0.123   12  0.118   14  0.070   12 0.5142   17  3.973   15  0.009   11  0.130
NETS          11 22 3612 3771 -0.013 16.642   26 -0.327   26 -0.323   23 -0.211   26 0.4597   30  3.921   28 -0.539   12  0.117
76ERS         19 15 3986 3957 -0.008 16.693   14  0.112   14  0.111   15  0.041   13 0.5135   16  3.975   16 -0.012   13  0.095
KNICKS        24 13 4430 4258  0.004 18.024    8  0.293    7  0.297    8  0.216    8 0.5339   10  4.010    4  0.344   14  0.089
GRIZZLIES     16 20 4165 4199 -0.010 17.871   20 -0.128   20 -0.126   17 -0.028   19 0.4885   14  3.981   18 -0.051   15 -0.005
MAVERICKS     14 23 4185 4327 -0.040 18.325   23 -0.271   24 -0.264   24 -0.216   24 0.4681   24  3.948   27 -0.404   16 -0.027
CAVALIERS     21 17 4530 4437 -0.025 18.260   15  0.090   15  0.084   12  0.099   15 0.5079    9  4.013   10  0.245   17 -0.047
BUCKS         16 20 4080 4159 -0.101 16.790   21 -0.190   21 -0.187   22 -0.207   21 0.4796   22  3.957   26 -0.352   18 -0.061
HORNETS       13 23 4178 4243 -0.034 17.604   25 -0.293   25 -0.293   20 -0.072   25 0.4656   13  3.988   19 -0.059   19 -0.085
HEAT          20 17 4444 4344  0.056 18.914   13  0.120   13  0.114   10  0.149   14 0.5131    5  4.031    3  0.391   20 -0.093
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       24 12 4477 4258  0.009 17.340    6  0.318    6  0.317    6  0.286    7 0.5350    2  4.060    1  0.681   21 -0.109
LAKERS        23 11 3981 3973 -0.021 16.624    5  0.348    4  0.350   18 -0.041    4 0.5416   11  4.006   14  0.067   22 -0.149
TRAIL BLAZERS 17 20 4324 4424  0.069 19.619   17 -0.013   17 -0.017   21 -0.106   17 0.4985    7  4.020   13  0.079   23 -0.292
HAWKS         17 21 4502 4555  0.033 19.464   18 -0.074   18 -0.082   19 -0.070   18 0.4938    4  4.032   11  0.177   24 -0.317
PACERS         6 31 4098 4429 -0.046 18.812   30 -0.740   30 -0.761   28 -0.512   30 0.4184   20  3.964   29 -0.621   25 -0.402
KINGS          8 29 4068 4501  0.062 20.463   28 -0.517   28 -0.513   30 -0.632   28 0.4437   18  3.966   30 -0.729   26 -0.536
BULLS         17 19 4240 4377 -0.095 17.028   19 -0.119   19 -0.116   25 -0.315   20 0.4846    6  4.030   21 -0.082   27 -0.549
PELICANS       8 30 4364 4667 -0.002 19.555   29 -0.602   29 -0.608   27 -0.441   29 0.4336    8  4.014   25 -0.292   28 -0.590
WIZARDS       10 25 3975 4341 -0.037 17.782   27 -0.456   27 -0.447   29 -0.533   27 0.4475    3  4.034   24 -0.277   29 -0.789
JAZZ          12 23 4186 4446  0.034 18.604   24 -0.273   23 -0.262   26 -0.377   23 0.4697    1  4.087   12  0.163   30 -0.917

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          21 15 4131 4061  0.041 18.125   10  0.200   10  0.199    9  0.161   10 0.5219   25  3.946   17 -0.039    5  0.362
WARRIORS      19 18 4249 4205  0.051 18.897   16  0.069   16  0.060   11  0.112   16 0.5057   23  3.950   20 -0.070    8  0.294
CLIPPERS      13 22 3924 3997  0.075 18.552   22 -0.206   22 -0.202   16  0.007   22 0.4759   29  3.930   23 -0.273    9  0.287
LAKERS        23 11 3981 3973 -0.021 16.624    5  0.348    4  0.350   18 -0.041    4 0.5416   11  4.006   14  0.067   22 -0.149
KINGS          8 29 4068 4501  0.062 20.463   28 -0.517   28 -0.513   30 -0.632   28 0.4437   18  3.966   30 -0.729   26 -0.536

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       30  7 4486 3982 -0.026 16.770    1  0.612    1  0.623    1  0.725    1 0.5672   27  3.940    2  0.492    1  0.957
TIMBERWOLVES  24 13 4426 4220 -0.057 16.929    9  0.246    9  0.246    7  0.286    9 0.5290   15  3.978    8  0.251    7  0.322
NUGGETS       24 12 4477 4258  0.009 17.340    6  0.318    6  0.317    6  0.286    7 0.5350    2  4.060    1  0.681   21 -0.109
TRAIL BLAZERS 17 20 4324 4424  0.069 19.619   17 -0.013   17 -0.017   21 -0.106   17 0.4985    7  4.020   13  0.079   23 -0.292
JAZZ          12 23 4186 4446  0.034 18.604   24 -0.273   23 -0.262   26 -0.377   23 0.4697    1  4.087   12  0.163   30 -0.917

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       22 11 3940 3662  0.053 16.138    4  0.352    5  0.337    2  0.453    5 0.5406   26  3.945    9  0.247    2  0.659
SPURS         25 12 4409 4226  0.041 18.310    3  0.391    3  0.384    5  0.295    3 0.5439   12  3.991    5  0.325   10  0.264
GRIZZLIES     16 20 4165 4199 -0.010 17.871   20 -0.128   20 -0.126   17 -0.028   19 0.4885   14  3.981   18 -0.051   15 -0.005
MAVERICKS     14 23 4185 4327 -0.040 18.325   23 -0.271   24 -0.264   24 -0.216   24 0.4681   24  3.948   27 -0.404   16 -0.027
PELICANS       8 30 4364 4667 -0.002 19.555   29 -0.602   29 -0.608   27 -0.441   29 0.4336    8  4.014   25 -0.292   28 -0.590

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PISTONS       27  9 4278 4036 -0.034 16.802    2  0.479    2  0.477    4  0.370    2 0.5558   19  3.964    7  0.261    4  0.479
CAVALIERS     21 17 4530 4437 -0.025 18.260   15  0.090   15  0.084   12  0.099   15 0.5079    9  4.013   10  0.245   17 -0.047
BUCKS         16 20 4080 4159 -0.101 16.790   21 -0.190   21 -0.187   22 -0.207   21 0.4796   22  3.957   26 -0.352   18 -0.061
PACERS         6 31 4098 4429 -0.046 18.812   30 -0.740   30 -0.761   28 -0.512   30 0.4184   20  3.964   29 -0.621   25 -0.402
BULLS         17 19 4240 4377 -0.095 17.028   19 -0.119   19 -0.116   25 -0.315   20 0.4846    6  4.030   21 -0.082   27 -0.549

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         20 17 4326 4276  0.056 19.003   12  0.123   12  0.118   14  0.070   12 0.5142   17  3.973   15  0.009   11  0.130
HORNETS       13 23 4178 4243 -0.034 17.604   25 -0.293   25 -0.293   20 -0.072   25 0.4656   13  3.988   19 -0.059   19 -0.085
HEAT          20 17 4444 4344  0.056 18.914   13  0.120   13  0.114   10  0.149   14 0.5131    5  4.031    3  0.391   20 -0.093
HAWKS         17 21 4502 4555  0.033 19.464   18 -0.074   18 -0.082   19 -0.070   18 0.4938    4  4.032   11  0.177   24 -0.317
WIZARDS       10 25 3975 4341 -0.037 17.782   27 -0.456   27 -0.447   29 -0.533   27 0.4475    3  4.034   24 -0.277   29 -0.789

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       23 12 4122 3866 -0.001 16.701    7  0.296    8  0.293    3  0.417    6 0.5369   21  3.959    6  0.281    3  0.553
RAPTORS       22 15 4236 4155 -0.039 17.654   11  0.160   11  0.156   13  0.076   11 0.5161   28  3.933   22 -0.190    6  0.342
NETS          11 22 3612 3771 -0.013 16.642   26 -0.327   26 -0.323   23 -0.211   26 0.4597   30  3.921   28 -0.539   12  0.117
76ERS         19 15 3986 3957 -0.008 16.693   14  0.112   14  0.111   15  0.041   13 0.5135   16  3.975   16 -0.012   13  0.095
KNICKS        24 13 4430 4258  0.004 18.024    8  0.293    7  0.297    8  0.216    8 0.5339   10  4.010    4  0.344   14  0.089

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 107  75 0.588    1  0.218
ATLANTIC DIVISION   99  77 0.562    2  0.132
SOUTHWEST DIVISION  85  96 0.470    3  0.013
PACIFIC DIVISION    84  95 0.469    4 -0.094
SOUTHEAST DIVISION  80 103 0.437    5 -0.113
CENTRAL DIVISION    87  96 0.475    6 -0.145

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.175 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.018 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Jan  7 05:30:12 2026
games through: Tue Jan  6 2026

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