Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       30  6 4389 3858 -0.014 16.401    1  0.689    1  0.699    1  0.836    1 0.5745   27  3.939    2  0.591    1  1.081
ROCKETS       21 11 3840 3565  0.055 15.647    6  0.325    6  0.318    2  0.468    5 0.5373   26  3.950    7  0.281    2  0.654
CELTICS       22 12 4007 3765  0.008 16.395    8  0.282    8  0.282    3  0.416    7 0.5350   20  3.962    6  0.290    3  0.541
SPURS         25 11 4304 4120  0.053 17.919    3  0.451    3  0.437    4  0.318    3 0.5490   12  3.994    5  0.358    9  0.279
PISTONS       26  9 4157 3946 -0.044 16.287    2  0.475    2  0.462    5  0.304    2 0.5531   19  3.968    9  0.209    4  0.399
NUGGETS       23 12 4352 4134  0.001 16.771    7  0.293    7  0.294    6  0.291    8 0.5319    2  4.061    1  0.683   20 -0.102
KNICKS        24 12 4340 4137 -0.006 17.361    5  0.336    5  0.329    7  0.287    6 0.5367    9  4.013    4  0.426   12  0.148
TIMBERWOLVES  23 13 4304 4126 -0.059 16.510    9  0.230    9  0.229    8  0.235    9 0.5270   15  3.981   10  0.208   10  0.262
HEAT          20 16 4350 4222  0.048 18.248   12  0.144   13  0.137    9  0.210   13 0.5153    3  4.034    3  0.459   18 -0.039
SUNS          21 14 4034 3961  0.026 17.438   10  0.225   10  0.226   10  0.159   10 0.5250   25  3.950   17 -0.027    5  0.345
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      19 17 4147 4102  0.054 18.430   15  0.095   15  0.091   11  0.122   15 0.5103   24  3.953   19 -0.053    7  0.297
MAGIC         20 16 4214 4156  0.078 18.791   11  0.170   11  0.168   12  0.112   11 0.5191   17  3.973   14  0.039   11  0.185
CAVALIERS     20 17 4410 4321 -0.017 17.915   16  0.069   16  0.065   13  0.105   16 0.5061   10  4.010    8  0.230   15 -0.019
RAPTORS       21 15 4118 4055 -0.038 17.249   14  0.137   14  0.135   14  0.041   14 0.5132   28  3.936   22 -0.220    6  0.303
76ERS         19 14 3862 3832 -0.018 16.104   13  0.140   12  0.140   15  0.039   12 0.5167   16  3.977   16 -0.012   14  0.091
CLIPPERS      12 22 3821 3895  0.083 18.144   22 -0.243   22 -0.238   16  0.010   23 0.4720   29  3.932   23 -0.267    8  0.287
GRIZZLIES     15 20 4059 4094 -0.015 17.346   20 -0.169   20 -0.166   17 -0.037   20 0.4839   14  3.984   18 -0.052   16 -0.023
HAWKS         17 20 4402 4437  0.024 18.818   18 -0.059   18 -0.066   18 -0.041   18 0.4962    4  4.033   11  0.206   23 -0.287
LAKERS        22 11 3870 3870 -0.012 16.279    4  0.344    4  0.339   19 -0.052    4 0.5407   11  4.010   13  0.068   21 -0.172
TRAIL BLAZERS 16 20 4187 4307  0.094 19.492   17 -0.022   17 -0.026   20 -0.128   17 0.4974    7  4.017   15  0.031   24 -0.287
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HORNETS       12 23 4054 4146 -0.067 16.798   26 -0.373   26 -0.368   21 -0.177   26 0.4588   13  3.988   21 -0.171   22 -0.183
MAVERICKS     13 23 4085 4229 -0.023 18.111   24 -0.303   24 -0.288   22 -0.210   24 0.4648   23  3.953   26 -0.383   17 -0.037
NETS          11 22 3612 3771 -0.021 16.580   25 -0.348   25 -0.335   23 -0.220   25 0.4592   30  3.919   28 -0.564   13  0.124
BUCKS         16 20 4080 4159 -0.121 16.556   21 -0.211   21 -0.206   24 -0.228   21 0.4782   22  3.955   27 -0.389   19 -0.067
BULLS         17 18 4139 4262 -0.115 16.279   19 -0.112   19 -0.106   25 -0.320   19 0.4865    6  4.033   20 -0.076   27 -0.563
JAZZ          12 22 4069 4309  0.035 18.099   23 -0.263   23 -0.243   26 -0.348   22 0.4721    1  4.083   12  0.164   30 -0.861
PELICANS       8 29 4261 4556  0.006 19.222   29 -0.582   29 -0.594   27 -0.431   29 0.4350    8  4.017   24 -0.273   28 -0.589
PACERS         6 30 3982 4309 -0.049 18.344   30 -0.731   30 -0.761   28 -0.526   30 0.4199   21  3.961   29 -0.656   25 -0.396
WIZARDS        9 25 3855 4229 -0.049 17.226   28 -0.500   28 -0.505   29 -0.585   28 0.4420    5  4.033   25 -0.340   29 -0.830
KINGS          8 28 3970 4401  0.080 20.174   27 -0.489   27 -0.491   30 -0.642   27 0.4470   18  3.971   30 -0.722   26 -0.562

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          21 14 4034 3961  0.026 17.438   10  0.225   10  0.226   10  0.159   10 0.5250   25  3.950   17 -0.027    5  0.345
WARRIORS      19 17 4147 4102  0.054 18.430   15  0.095   15  0.091   11  0.122   15 0.5103   24  3.953   19 -0.053    7  0.297
CLIPPERS      12 22 3821 3895  0.083 18.144   22 -0.243   22 -0.238   16  0.010   23 0.4720   29  3.932   23 -0.267    8  0.287
LAKERS        22 11 3870 3870 -0.012 16.279    4  0.344    4  0.339   19 -0.052    4 0.5407   11  4.010   13  0.068   21 -0.172
KINGS          8 28 3970 4401  0.080 20.174   27 -0.489   27 -0.491   30 -0.642   27 0.4470   18  3.971   30 -0.722   26 -0.562

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       30  6 4389 3858 -0.014 16.401    1  0.689    1  0.699    1  0.836    1 0.5745   27  3.939    2  0.591    1  1.081
NUGGETS       23 12 4352 4134  0.001 16.771    7  0.293    7  0.294    6  0.291    8 0.5319    2  4.061    1  0.683   20 -0.102
TIMBERWOLVES  23 13 4304 4126 -0.059 16.510    9  0.230    9  0.229    8  0.235    9 0.5270   15  3.981   10  0.208   10  0.262
TRAIL BLAZERS 16 20 4187 4307  0.094 19.492   17 -0.022   17 -0.026   20 -0.128   17 0.4974    7  4.017   15  0.031   24 -0.287
JAZZ          12 22 4069 4309  0.035 18.099   23 -0.263   23 -0.243   26 -0.348   22 0.4721    1  4.083   12  0.164   30 -0.861

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       21 11 3840 3565  0.055 15.647    6  0.325    6  0.318    2  0.468    5 0.5373   26  3.950    7  0.281    2  0.654
SPURS         25 11 4304 4120  0.053 17.919    3  0.451    3  0.437    4  0.318    3 0.5490   12  3.994    5  0.358    9  0.279
GRIZZLIES     15 20 4059 4094 -0.015 17.346   20 -0.169   20 -0.166   17 -0.037   20 0.4839   14  3.984   18 -0.052   16 -0.023
MAVERICKS     13 23 4085 4229 -0.023 18.111   24 -0.303   24 -0.288   22 -0.210   24 0.4648   23  3.953   26 -0.383   17 -0.037
PELICANS       8 29 4261 4556  0.006 19.222   29 -0.582   29 -0.594   27 -0.431   29 0.4350    8  4.017   24 -0.273   28 -0.589

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PISTONS       26  9 4157 3946 -0.044 16.287    2  0.475    2  0.462    5  0.304    2 0.5531   19  3.968    9  0.209    4  0.399
CAVALIERS     20 17 4410 4321 -0.017 17.915   16  0.069   16  0.065   13  0.105   16 0.5061   10  4.010    8  0.230   15 -0.019
BUCKS         16 20 4080 4159 -0.121 16.556   21 -0.211   21 -0.206   24 -0.228   21 0.4782   22  3.955   27 -0.389   19 -0.067
BULLS         17 18 4139 4262 -0.115 16.279   19 -0.112   19 -0.106   25 -0.320   19 0.4865    6  4.033   20 -0.076   27 -0.563
PACERS         6 30 3982 4309 -0.049 18.344   30 -0.731   30 -0.761   28 -0.526   30 0.4199   21  3.961   29 -0.656   25 -0.396

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          20 16 4350 4222  0.048 18.248   12  0.144   13  0.137    9  0.210   13 0.5153    3  4.034    3  0.459   18 -0.039
MAGIC         20 16 4214 4156  0.078 18.791   11  0.170   11  0.168   12  0.112   11 0.5191   17  3.973   14  0.039   11  0.185
HAWKS         17 20 4402 4437  0.024 18.818   18 -0.059   18 -0.066   18 -0.041   18 0.4962    4  4.033   11  0.206   23 -0.287
HORNETS       12 23 4054 4146 -0.067 16.798   26 -0.373   26 -0.368   21 -0.177   26 0.4588   13  3.988   21 -0.171   22 -0.183
WIZARDS        9 25 3855 4229 -0.049 17.226   28 -0.500   28 -0.505   29 -0.585   28 0.4420    5  4.033   25 -0.340   29 -0.830

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       22 12 4007 3765  0.008 16.395    8  0.282    8  0.282    3  0.416    7 0.5350   20  3.962    6  0.290    3  0.541
KNICKS        24 12 4340 4137 -0.006 17.361    5  0.336    5  0.329    7  0.287    6 0.5367    9  4.013    4  0.426   12  0.148
RAPTORS       21 15 4118 4055 -0.038 17.249   14  0.137   14  0.135   14  0.041   14 0.5132   28  3.936   22 -0.220    6  0.303
76ERS         19 14 3862 3832 -0.018 16.104   13  0.140   12  0.140   15  0.039   12 0.5167   16  3.977   16 -0.012   14  0.091
NETS          11 22 3612 3771 -0.021 16.580   25 -0.348   25 -0.335   23 -0.220   25 0.4592   30  3.919   28 -0.564   13  0.124

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 104  73 0.588    1  0.225
ATLANTIC DIVISION   97  75 0.564    2  0.134
SOUTHWEST DIVISION  82  94 0.466    3  0.022
PACIFIC DIVISION    82  92 0.471    4 -0.094
SOUTHEAST DIVISION  78 100 0.438    5 -0.116
CENTRAL DIVISION    85  94 0.475    6 -0.162

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.167 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.017 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Jan  5 05:30:10 2026
games through: Sun Jan  4 2026

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