Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       36  9 5209 4684  0.092 22.674    1  0.751    2  0.745    1  0.775    2 0.5737   23  3.914    4  0.570    1  0.981
CAVALIERS     36  7 5232 4798 -0.021 19.810    2  0.750    1  0.756    2  0.552    1 0.5744    4  4.027    2  0.931    8  0.174
ROCKETS       29 14 4889 4637  0.096 22.307    3  0.442    3  0.435    6  0.393    3 0.5453   22  3.915   12  0.194    3  0.593
CELTICS       31 14 5273 4877 -0.009 21.336    4  0.390    4  0.378    3  0.505    4 0.5428   20  3.939    5  0.424    4  0.586
NUGGETS       28 16 5322 5085  0.066 22.531    5  0.336    5  0.330    5  0.425    5 0.5342    3  4.039    3  0.865   16 -0.015
GRIZZLIES     29 15 5424 5061 -0.014 20.838    6  0.323    6  0.312    4  0.482    6 0.5342    1  4.074    1  1.111   20 -0.148
KNICKS        29 16 5249 4981 -0.095 20.219    7  0.235    7  0.223    8  0.247    7 0.5247   11  3.978    6  0.365   11  0.128
CLIPPERS      25 19 4821 4689  0.061 22.542    8  0.195    8  0.185    7  0.257    9 0.5178   29  3.873   19 -0.151    2  0.665
LAKERS        24 18 4677 4738  0.007 21.408    9  0.175    9  0.173   18 -0.062   10 0.5177   19  3.940   18 -0.133   15  0.010
BUCKS         26 17 4896 4731 -0.066 19.999   10  0.157   10  0.154    9  0.227    8 0.5187   18  3.942   13  0.164    7  0.290
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     24 21 5187 5037  0.079 23.388   11  0.134   11  0.132   10  0.226   11 0.5122   12  3.969    9  0.300   10  0.151
TIMBERWOLVES  23 21 4844 4759  0.092 23.370   12  0.117   12  0.118   11  0.223   12 0.5121   28  3.891   17 -0.095    5  0.540
PACERS        24 20 5062 5066 -0.033 21.593   13  0.073   13  0.075   13  0.039   13 0.5087    6  4.005    8  0.302   22 -0.223
WARRIORS      22 22 4899 4898  0.078 23.357   14  0.072   14  0.074   16 -0.039   14 0.5052   21  3.931   20 -0.160   12  0.082
KINGS         23 21 5146 5032 -0.021 21.494   15  0.031   15  0.026   12  0.159   16 0.5026    8  3.989    7  0.338   17 -0.019
PISTONS       23 21 4937 4969 -0.036 21.595   16  0.023   16  0.021   15 -0.026   15 0.5037   17  3.945   16 -0.073   14  0.021
HAWKS         22 22 5139 5235 -0.031 21.947   17 -0.018   17 -0.014   19 -0.121   17 0.4986    5  4.022   11  0.229   26 -0.471
SUNS          22 21 4841 4890 -0.066 20.685   18 -0.027   18 -0.025   20 -0.132   18 0.4984   13  3.966   15 -0.072   21 -0.193
SPURS         20 22 4717 4745  0.012 21.369   19 -0.038   19 -0.037   14 -0.017   21 0.4941   16  3.946   14 -0.060   13  0.025
MAGIC         23 23 4756 4799 -0.050 22.429   20 -0.040   20 -0.039   21 -0.212   19 0.4965   30  3.809   30 -0.929    6  0.506
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          21 22 4763 4751 -0.047 20.830   21 -0.059   21 -0.063   17 -0.055   20 0.4943   24  3.910   23 -0.279    9  0.169
BULLS         19 26 5259 5410 -0.059 22.150   22 -0.203   22 -0.202   22 -0.263   22 0.4776    2  4.055   10  0.264   29 -0.791
TRAIL BLAZERS 16 28 4748 5087  0.009 23.184   23 -0.271   23 -0.266   27 -0.427   23 0.4694   14  3.953   24 -0.437   24 -0.418
76ERS         15 27 4515 4719 -0.037 21.107   24 -0.330   24 -0.330   23 -0.319   24 0.4651   25  3.905   26 -0.569   18 -0.069
NETS          14 31 4764 5110  0.014 23.751   25 -0.387   25 -0.378   29 -0.549   25 0.4593   27  3.892   29 -0.864   23 -0.234
RAPTORS       12 32 4892 5190  0.079 24.166   26 -0.440   26 -0.438   24 -0.343   26 0.4553   10  3.982   22 -0.203   27 -0.482
HORNETS       11 29 4297 4520 -0.038 20.186   27 -0.507   27 -0.509   25 -0.350   27 0.4466   26  3.902   27 -0.617   19 -0.083
PELICANS      12 32 4806 5158 -0.060 22.341   28 -0.541   28 -0.544   28 -0.458   28 0.4454   15  3.948   25 -0.489   25 -0.426
JAZZ          10 32 4683 4969  0.005 21.910   29 -0.560   29 -0.568   26 -0.357   29 0.4398    7  3.990   21 -0.176   28 -0.538
WIZARDS        6 37 4633 5255  0.038 23.905   30 -0.782   30 -0.803   30 -0.843   30 0.4222    9  3.985   28 -0.688   30 -0.997
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      25 19 4821 4689  0.061 22.542    8  0.195    8  0.185    7  0.257    9 0.5178   29  3.873   19 -0.151    2  0.665
LAKERS        24 18 4677 4738  0.007 21.408    9  0.175    9  0.173   18 -0.062   10 0.5177   19  3.940   18 -0.133   15  0.010
WARRIORS      22 22 4899 4898  0.078 23.357   14  0.072   14  0.074   16 -0.039   14 0.5052   21  3.931   20 -0.160   12  0.082
KINGS         23 21 5146 5032 -0.021 21.494   15  0.031   15  0.026   12  0.159   16 0.5026    8  3.989    7  0.338   17 -0.019
SUNS          22 21 4841 4890 -0.066 20.685   18 -0.027   18 -0.025   20 -0.132   18 0.4984   13  3.966   15 -0.072   21 -0.193

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       36  9 5209 4684  0.092 22.674    1  0.751    2  0.745    1  0.775    2 0.5737   23  3.914    4  0.570    1  0.981
NUGGETS       28 16 5322 5085  0.066 22.531    5  0.336    5  0.330    5  0.425    5 0.5342    3  4.039    3  0.865   16 -0.015
TIMBERWOLVES  23 21 4844 4759  0.092 23.370   12  0.117   12  0.118   11  0.223   12 0.5121   28  3.891   17 -0.095    5  0.540
TRAIL BLAZERS 16 28 4748 5087  0.009 23.184   23 -0.271   23 -0.266   27 -0.427   23 0.4694   14  3.953   24 -0.437   24 -0.418
JAZZ          10 32 4683 4969  0.005 21.910   29 -0.560   29 -0.568   26 -0.357   29 0.4398    7  3.990   21 -0.176   28 -0.538

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       29 14 4889 4637  0.096 22.307    3  0.442    3  0.435    6  0.393    3 0.5453   22  3.915   12  0.194    3  0.593
GRIZZLIES     29 15 5424 5061 -0.014 20.838    6  0.323    6  0.312    4  0.482    6 0.5342    1  4.074    1  1.111   20 -0.148
MAVERICKS     24 21 5187 5037  0.079 23.388   11  0.134   11  0.132   10  0.226   11 0.5122   12  3.969    9  0.300   10  0.151
SPURS         20 22 4717 4745  0.012 21.369   19 -0.038   19 -0.037   14 -0.017   21 0.4941   16  3.946   14 -0.060   13  0.025
PELICANS      12 32 4806 5158 -0.060 22.341   28 -0.541   28 -0.544   28 -0.458   28 0.4454   15  3.948   25 -0.489   25 -0.426

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     36  7 5232 4798 -0.021 19.810    2  0.750    1  0.756    2  0.552    1 0.5744    4  4.027    2  0.931    8  0.174
BUCKS         26 17 4896 4731 -0.066 19.999   10  0.157   10  0.154    9  0.227    8 0.5187   18  3.942   13  0.164    7  0.290
PACERS        24 20 5062 5066 -0.033 21.593   13  0.073   13  0.075   13  0.039   13 0.5087    6  4.005    8  0.302   22 -0.223
PISTONS       23 21 4937 4969 -0.036 21.595   16  0.023   16  0.021   15 -0.026   15 0.5037   17  3.945   16 -0.073   14  0.021
BULLS         19 26 5259 5410 -0.059 22.150   22 -0.203   22 -0.202   22 -0.263   22 0.4776    2  4.055   10  0.264   29 -0.791

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         22 22 5139 5235 -0.031 21.947   17 -0.018   17 -0.014   19 -0.121   17 0.4986    5  4.022   11  0.229   26 -0.471
MAGIC         23 23 4756 4799 -0.050 22.429   20 -0.040   20 -0.039   21 -0.212   19 0.4965   30  3.809   30 -0.929    6  0.506
HEAT          21 22 4763 4751 -0.047 20.830   21 -0.059   21 -0.063   17 -0.055   20 0.4943   24  3.910   23 -0.279    9  0.169
HORNETS       11 29 4297 4520 -0.038 20.186   27 -0.507   27 -0.509   25 -0.350   27 0.4466   26  3.902   27 -0.617   19 -0.083
WIZARDS        6 37 4633 5255  0.038 23.905   30 -0.782   30 -0.803   30 -0.843   30 0.4222    9  3.985   28 -0.688   30 -0.997

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       31 14 5273 4877 -0.009 21.336    4  0.390    4  0.378    3  0.505    4 0.5428   20  3.939    5  0.424    4  0.586
KNICKS        29 16 5249 4981 -0.095 20.219    7  0.235    7  0.223    8  0.247    7 0.5247   11  3.978    6  0.365   11  0.128
76ERS         15 27 4515 4719 -0.037 21.107   24 -0.330   24 -0.330   23 -0.319   24 0.4651   25  3.905   26 -0.569   18 -0.069
NETS          14 31 4764 5110  0.014 23.751   25 -0.387   25 -0.378   29 -0.549   25 0.4593   27  3.892   29 -0.864   23 -0.234
RAPTORS       12 32 4892 5190  0.079 24.166   26 -0.440   26 -0.438   24 -0.343   26 0.4553   10  3.982   22 -0.203   27 -0.482

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 114 104 0.523    1  0.150
NORTHWEST DIVISION 113 106 0.516    2  0.118
CENTRAL DIVISION   128  91 0.584    3  0.090
PACIFIC DIVISION   116 101 0.535    4  0.051
ATLANTIC DIVISION  101 120 0.457    5 -0.083
SOUTHEAST DIVISION  83 133 0.384    6 -0.342

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.129 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Jan 24 05:30:13 2025
games through: Thu Jan 23 2025

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