Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         49 35 453 349  0.021 41.938    3  0.141    4  0.130    1  0.180    4 0.5226    9  0.623    2  0.327   16  0.034   12  0.047
YANKEES      48 35 422 309 -0.029 39.791    6  0.083    6  0.093    2  0.176    6 0.5176   16  0.396   12  0.115    3  0.237    9  0.111
TIGERS       53 32 424 325 -0.023 40.971    1  0.182    2  0.162    3  0.166    2 0.5272   13  0.577    6  0.268   13  0.064   23 -0.133
DODGERS      53 32 477 387 -0.022 41.003    2  0.182    1  0.162    4  0.131    1 0.5273   10  0.622    4  0.277   19 -0.014    4  0.299
RAYS         47 37 403 332 -0.009 41.037   10  0.062   10  0.077    5  0.110    8 0.5131   11  0.600    7  0.234   18 -0.014   21 -0.102
CARDINALS    47 38 403 358  0.031 42.946    7  0.081    7  0.092    6  0.104    7 0.5158    5  0.676    3  0.302   21 -0.094   24 -0.174
BREWERS      47 37 397 341  0.002 41.391    9  0.068    9  0.083    7  0.096   10 0.5119    2  0.739    1  0.356   23 -0.165   30 -0.523
ASTROS       50 34 350 304 -0.005 41.200    4  0.138    3  0.130    8  0.094    3 0.5230   19  0.359   15  0.001    6  0.187   19 -0.061
PHILLIES     49 35 386 340 -0.022 40.609    5  0.101    5  0.106    9  0.077    5 0.5178   28  0.186   23 -0.155    1  0.309    2  0.479
REDS         44 40 387 347  0.011 41.766   13  0.024   13  0.039   10  0.065   14 0.5053   14  0.544   11  0.137   17 -0.006   17 -0.045
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         48 37 368 329 -0.016 41.332    8  0.068    8  0.083   11  0.060    9 0.5127   20  0.352   17 -0.038    9  0.158   25 -0.184
PADRES       45 38 345 328  0.006 41.130   11  0.044   11  0.063   12  0.038   12 0.5107   23  0.322   20 -0.086    7  0.161   20 -0.072
GIANTS       45 39 349 317 -0.029 40.431   14  0.019   14  0.033   13  0.032   13 0.5054   26  0.252   22 -0.149    4  0.213   18 -0.055
DIAMONDBACKS 41 42 432 430  0.002 41.027   17 -0.007   17 -0.008   14  0.017   18 0.4976    3  0.732    5  0.271   26 -0.237   11  0.094
RED SOX      41 44 399 389  0.010 42.294   19 -0.010   19 -0.019   15  0.015   19 0.4959    6  0.676    8  0.213   24 -0.183   13  0.018
BRAVES       38 45 339 327  0.000 40.977   23 -0.042   23 -0.059   16  0.015   23 0.4900   24  0.297   21 -0.129    8  0.159   15 -0.029
BLUE JAYS    45 38 365 369  0.005 41.124   12  0.042   12  0.061   17  0.012   11 0.5112   17  0.389   19 -0.055   12  0.079    6  0.221
MARINERS     43 40 380 367 -0.011 40.597   15  0.009   15  0.018   18  0.006   15 0.5044    8  0.644   10  0.172   22 -0.161   26 -0.309
RANGERS      41 43 308 292 -0.017 40.897   20 -0.015   20 -0.026   19  0.001   21 0.4945   27  0.244   24 -0.186    5  0.188   29 -0.430
TWINS        40 44 356 370  0.002 41.558   21 -0.019   21 -0.032   20 -0.009   20 0.4954   15  0.414   18 -0.054   15  0.037    7  0.211
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PIRATES      35 50 297 339  0.068 44.368   25 -0.071   25 -0.086   21 -0.043   25 0.4859   30  0.062   28 -0.367    2  0.282    8  0.155
ROYALS       39 45 277 310  0.016 42.149   22 -0.027   22 -0.040   22 -0.064   22 0.4917   25  0.280   27 -0.222   10  0.094   28 -0.360
GUARDIANS    40 42 303 350  0.017 41.146   16 -0.007   16 -0.008   23 -0.073   16 0.4999   22  0.334   25 -0.187   14  0.041   14 -0.025
ANGELS       41 42 359 408 -0.004 40.996   18 -0.008   18 -0.010   24 -0.089   17 0.4996   12  0.596   14  0.032   25 -0.209   16 -0.040
ORIOLES      36 47 345 422  0.009 41.443   26 -0.072   26 -0.087   25 -0.120   26 0.4846   18  0.370   26 -0.203   20 -0.037    3  0.406
MARLINS      37 45 353 427  0.004 40.827   24 -0.056   24 -0.067   26 -0.126   24 0.4877    1  0.812    9  0.210   30 -0.462   27 -0.345
WHITE SOX    28 56 287 367  0.005 41.801   29 -0.238   29 -0.232   27 -0.148   29 0.4606   29  0.179   29 -0.386   11  0.090   10  0.099
NATIONALS    35 49 366 434 -0.030 40.726   27 -0.138   27 -0.134   28 -0.154   27 0.4776    4  0.691   13  0.059   28 -0.366   22 -0.115
ATHLETICS    34 52 354 496 -0.003 42.682   28 -0.162   28 -0.150   29 -0.202   28 0.4756    7  0.658   16 -0.021   29 -0.382    5  0.257
ROCKIES      19 65 295 516  0.040 43.252   30 -0.372   30 -0.372   30 -0.375   30 0.4370   21  0.339   30 -0.485   27 -0.266    1  0.603

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      53 32 477 387 -0.022 41.003    2  0.182    1  0.162    4  0.131    1 0.5273   10  0.622    4  0.277   19 -0.014    4  0.299
PADRES       45 38 345 328  0.006 41.130   11  0.044   11  0.063   12  0.038   12 0.5107   23  0.322   20 -0.086    7  0.161   20 -0.072
GIANTS       45 39 349 317 -0.029 40.431   14  0.019   14  0.033   13  0.032   13 0.5054   26  0.252   22 -0.149    4  0.213   18 -0.055
DIAMONDBACKS 41 42 432 430  0.002 41.027   17 -0.007   17 -0.008   14  0.017   18 0.4976    3  0.732    5  0.271   26 -0.237   11  0.094
ROCKIES      19 65 295 516  0.040 43.252   30 -0.372   30 -0.372   30 -0.375   30 0.4370   21  0.339   30 -0.485   27 -0.266    1  0.603

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         49 35 453 349  0.021 41.938    3  0.141    4  0.130    1  0.180    4 0.5226    9  0.623    2  0.327   16  0.034   12  0.047
CARDINALS    47 38 403 358  0.031 42.946    7  0.081    7  0.092    6  0.104    7 0.5158    5  0.676    3  0.302   21 -0.094   24 -0.174
BREWERS      47 37 397 341  0.002 41.391    9  0.068    9  0.083    7  0.096   10 0.5119    2  0.739    1  0.356   23 -0.165   30 -0.523
REDS         44 40 387 347  0.011 41.766   13  0.024   13  0.039   10  0.065   14 0.5053   14  0.544   11  0.137   17 -0.006   17 -0.045
PIRATES      35 50 297 339  0.068 44.368   25 -0.071   25 -0.086   21 -0.043   25 0.4859   30  0.062   28 -0.367    2  0.282    8  0.155

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     49 35 386 340 -0.022 40.609    5  0.101    5  0.106    9  0.077    5 0.5178   28  0.186   23 -0.155    1  0.309    2  0.479
METS         48 37 368 329 -0.016 41.332    8  0.068    8  0.083   11  0.060    9 0.5127   20  0.352   17 -0.038    9  0.158   25 -0.184
BRAVES       38 45 339 327  0.000 40.977   23 -0.042   23 -0.059   16  0.015   23 0.4900   24  0.297   21 -0.129    8  0.159   15 -0.029
MARLINS      37 45 353 427  0.004 40.827   24 -0.056   24 -0.067   26 -0.126   24 0.4877    1  0.812    9  0.210   30 -0.462   27 -0.345
NATIONALS    35 49 366 434 -0.030 40.726   27 -0.138   27 -0.134   28 -0.154   27 0.4776    4  0.691   13  0.059   28 -0.366   22 -0.115

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       50 34 350 304 -0.005 41.200    4  0.138    3  0.130    8  0.094    3 0.5230   19  0.359   15  0.001    6  0.187   19 -0.061
MARINERS     43 40 380 367 -0.011 40.597   15  0.009   15  0.018   18  0.006   15 0.5044    8  0.644   10  0.172   22 -0.161   26 -0.309
RANGERS      41 43 308 292 -0.017 40.897   20 -0.015   20 -0.026   19  0.001   21 0.4945   27  0.244   24 -0.186    5  0.188   29 -0.430
ANGELS       41 42 359 408 -0.004 40.996   18 -0.008   18 -0.010   24 -0.089   17 0.4996   12  0.596   14  0.032   25 -0.209   16 -0.040
ATHLETICS    34 52 354 496 -0.003 42.682   28 -0.162   28 -0.150   29 -0.202   28 0.4756    7  0.658   16 -0.021   29 -0.382    5  0.257

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       53 32 424 325 -0.023 40.971    1  0.182    2  0.162    3  0.166    2 0.5272   13  0.577    6  0.268   13  0.064   23 -0.133
TWINS        40 44 356 370  0.002 41.558   21 -0.019   21 -0.032   20 -0.009   20 0.4954   15  0.414   18 -0.054   15  0.037    7  0.211
ROYALS       39 45 277 310  0.016 42.149   22 -0.027   22 -0.040   22 -0.064   22 0.4917   25  0.280   27 -0.222   10  0.094   28 -0.360
GUARDIANS    40 42 303 350  0.017 41.146   16 -0.007   16 -0.008   23 -0.073   16 0.4999   22  0.334   25 -0.187   14  0.041   14 -0.025
WHITE SOX    28 56 287 367  0.005 41.801   29 -0.238   29 -0.232   27 -0.148   29 0.4606   29  0.179   29 -0.386   11  0.090   10  0.099

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      48 35 422 309 -0.029 39.791    6  0.083    6  0.093    2  0.176    6 0.5176   16  0.396   12  0.115    3  0.237    9  0.111
RAYS         47 37 403 332 -0.009 41.037   10  0.062   10  0.077    5  0.110    8 0.5131   11  0.600    7  0.234   18 -0.014   21 -0.102
RED SOX      41 44 399 389  0.010 42.294   19 -0.010   19 -0.019   15  0.015   19 0.4959    6  0.676    8  0.213   24 -0.183   13  0.018
BLUE JAYS    45 38 365 369  0.005 41.124   12  0.042   12  0.061   17  0.012   11 0.5112   17  0.389   19 -0.055   12  0.079    6  0.221
ORIOLES      36 47 345 422  0.009 41.443   26 -0.072   26 -0.087   25 -0.120   26 0.4846   18  0.370   26 -0.203   20 -0.037    3  0.406

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 222 200 0.526    1  0.122
AL EAST    217 201 0.519    2  0.059
NL EAST    207 211 0.495    3 -0.039
AL CENTRAL 200 219 0.477    4 -0.039
NL WEST    203 216 0.484    5 -0.043
AL WEST    209 211 0.498    6 -0.057

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.071 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Jun 30 05:30:08 2025
games through: Sun Jun 29 2025

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