Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       23 12 140 110  0.077 18.203    1  0.221    1  0.226    5  0.180    2 0.5423   26  0.142   21 -0.070    1  0.430   23 -0.292 P
ROYALS       21 16 127 122 -0.058 17.635   13  0.052   12  0.056   19 -0.017   14 0.5074   30 -0.006   27 -0.375    2  0.340   17 -0.016 P
RANGERS      18 18 119 132  0.040 18.587   15  0.013   15  0.020   18 -0.016   13 0.5074   27  0.046   25 -0.337    3  0.305   20 -0.156 P
METS         23 14 174 121 -0.029 17.830    6  0.141    6  0.135    6  0.166    6 0.5284   20  0.337   15  0.071    4  0.262   29 -0.433 P
DODGERS      24 12 193 149  0.018 17.875    3  0.208    2  0.213    4  0.185    3 0.5417   17  0.425   10  0.165    5  0.205    8  0.240 P
BLUE JAYS    16 19 123 161 -0.091 16.457   23 -0.103   23 -0.094   25 -0.174   21 0.4845   29 -0.000   29 -0.527    6  0.180    3  0.372 P
PHILLIES     20 15 167 155  0.010 17.526    8  0.101    8  0.093   11  0.047    8 0.5202   21  0.314   20 -0.068    7  0.162    5  0.312 P
TWINS        16 20 142 133 -0.021 17.663   21 -0.073   21 -0.079   16  0.003   24 0.4811   22  0.278   22 -0.141    8  0.147   14  0.042 P
PIRATES      12 25 118 170 -0.015 18.546   28 -0.226   28 -0.227   28 -0.212   28 0.4595   28  0.018   30 -0.553    9  0.129   11  0.167 P
ASTROS       17 18 136 128  0.057 18.226   16  0.004   16  0.010   12  0.047   17 0.5006   19  0.362   16 -0.028   10  0.121   18 -0.075 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       22 13 179 116  0.057 17.885    4  0.181    4  0.179    2  0.260    4 0.5333    9  0.618    2  0.417   11  0.103   25 -0.337 P
RAYS         16 19 135 136 -0.061 16.723   20 -0.071   20 -0.078   21 -0.061   25 0.4810   24  0.256   23 -0.222   12  0.101   12  0.154 P
YANKEES      20 16 202 142 -0.018 17.461   12  0.064   13  0.055    3  0.187   10 0.5124   13  0.550    7  0.280   13  0.095    6  0.307 P
WHITE SOX    10 26 127 155 -0.017 17.893   29 -0.277   29 -0.287   23 -0.141   29 0.4427   25  0.174   26 -0.367   14  0.084   13  0.125 P
GIANTS       23 14 180 143  0.061 19.113    5  0.179    5  0.177    7  0.154    5 0.5322   14  0.539    9  0.236   15  0.072   24 -0.317 P
BRAVES       17 18 141 142  0.025 17.818   17 -0.011   17 -0.008   15  0.004   16 0.5007   18  0.394   19 -0.043   16  0.051   21 -0.166 P
CUBS         22 15 222 162  0.167 20.652    2  0.210    3  0.197    1  0.296    1 0.5444    4  0.729    1  0.562   17  0.030    4  0.312 P
REDS         18 19 177 148 -0.076 17.293   19 -0.051   19 -0.056   13  0.024   19 0.4904   15  0.503   14  0.073   18 -0.025   19 -0.109 P
DIAMONDBACKS 19 17 185 176  0.098 19.247    9  0.092    9  0.080    9  0.094    9 0.5160   10  0.604    8  0.237   19 -0.050   15  0.014 P
ATHLETICS    20 17 160 183  0.023 18.841   11  0.068   10  0.060   17 -0.016   11 0.5106   12  0.575   13  0.100   20 -0.131    7  0.277 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      19 18 174 163  0.092 19.702   10  0.074   11  0.059    8  0.114   15 0.5057    3  0.730    4  0.382   21 -0.154   30 -0.439 P
MARINERS     21 14 179 149 -0.011 17.209    7  0.121    7  0.114   10  0.086    7 0.5263    6  0.706    6  0.329   22 -0.158   26 -0.338 P
ROCKIES       6 28 106 195  0.054 18.161   30 -0.352   30 -0.370   30 -0.332   30 0.4336   23  0.266   28 -0.486   23 -0.178    2  0.446 P
RED SOX      18 19 180 168 -0.136 16.462   22 -0.082   22 -0.086   20 -0.050   23 0.4815    7  0.639   12  0.127   24 -0.228   10  0.208 P
ORIOLES      13 21 130 193 -0.042 16.705   27 -0.165   27 -0.159   29 -0.240   27 0.4719   16  0.435   24 -0.252   25 -0.229    1  0.461 P
NATIONALS    17 20 162 197 -0.093 17.278   24 -0.106   24 -0.096   24 -0.167   20 0.4864   11  0.596   17 -0.032   26 -0.303    9  0.234 P
CARDINALS    18 19 169 167 -0.005 18.374   18 -0.023   18 -0.023   14  0.011   18 0.4915    2  0.824    5  0.376   27 -0.354   28 -0.351 P
GUARDIANS    21 15 149 165 -0.100 16.615   14  0.042   14  0.053   22 -0.099   12 0.5104    5  0.720   11  0.158   28 -0.356   27 -0.343 P
ANGELS       14 20 125 184  0.012 17.411   25 -0.110   25 -0.099   27 -0.210   26 0.4780    8  0.629   18 -0.043   29 -0.378   16 -0.011 P
MARLINS      14 21 156 212  0.014 17.955   26 -0.123   26 -0.113   26 -0.175   22 0.4821    1  1.014    3  0.398   30 -0.747   22 -0.287 P

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       23 12 140 110  0.077 18.203    1  0.221    1  0.226    5  0.180    2 0.5423   26  0.142   21 -0.070    1  0.430   23 -0.292 P
DODGERS      24 12 193 149  0.018 17.875    3  0.208    2  0.213    4  0.185    3 0.5417   17  0.425   10  0.165    5  0.205    8  0.240 P
GIANTS       23 14 180 143  0.061 19.113    5  0.179    5  0.177    7  0.154    5 0.5322   14  0.539    9  0.236   15  0.072   24 -0.317 P
DIAMONDBACKS 19 17 185 176  0.098 19.247    9  0.092    9  0.080    9  0.094    9 0.5160   10  0.604    8  0.237   19 -0.050   15  0.014 P
ROCKIES       6 28 106 195  0.054 18.161   30 -0.352   30 -0.370   30 -0.332   30 0.4336   23  0.266   28 -0.486   23 -0.178    2  0.446 P

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PIRATES      12 25 118 170 -0.015 18.546   28 -0.226   28 -0.227   28 -0.212   28 0.4595   28  0.018   30 -0.553    9  0.129   11  0.167 P
CUBS         22 15 222 162  0.167 20.652    2  0.210    3  0.197    1  0.296    1 0.5444    4  0.729    1  0.562   17  0.030    4  0.312 P
REDS         18 19 177 148 -0.076 17.293   19 -0.051   19 -0.056   13  0.024   19 0.4904   15  0.503   14  0.073   18 -0.025   19 -0.109 P
BREWERS      19 18 174 163  0.092 19.702   10  0.074   11  0.059    8  0.114   15 0.5057    3  0.730    4  0.382   21 -0.154   30 -0.439 P
CARDINALS    18 19 169 167 -0.005 18.374   18 -0.023   18 -0.023   14  0.011   18 0.4915    2  0.824    5  0.376   27 -0.354   28 -0.351 P

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         23 14 174 121 -0.029 17.830    6  0.141    6  0.135    6  0.166    6 0.5284   20  0.337   15  0.071    4  0.262   29 -0.433 P
PHILLIES     20 15 167 155  0.010 17.526    8  0.101    8  0.093   11  0.047    8 0.5202   21  0.314   20 -0.068    7  0.162    5  0.312 P
BRAVES       17 18 141 142  0.025 17.818   17 -0.011   17 -0.008   15  0.004   16 0.5007   18  0.394   19 -0.043   16  0.051   21 -0.166 P
NATIONALS    17 20 162 197 -0.093 17.278   24 -0.106   24 -0.096   24 -0.167   20 0.4864   11  0.596   17 -0.032   26 -0.303    9  0.234 P
MARLINS      14 21 156 212  0.014 17.955   26 -0.123   26 -0.113   26 -0.175   22 0.4821    1  1.014    3  0.398   30 -0.747   22 -0.287 P

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      18 18 119 132  0.040 18.587   15  0.013   15  0.020   18 -0.016   13 0.5074   27  0.046   25 -0.337    3  0.305   20 -0.156 P
ASTROS       17 18 136 128  0.057 18.226   16  0.004   16  0.010   12  0.047   17 0.5006   19  0.362   16 -0.028   10  0.121   18 -0.075 P
ATHLETICS    20 17 160 183  0.023 18.841   11  0.068   10  0.060   17 -0.016   11 0.5106   12  0.575   13  0.100   20 -0.131    7  0.277 P
MARINERS     21 14 179 149 -0.011 17.209    7  0.121    7  0.114   10  0.086    7 0.5263    6  0.706    6  0.329   22 -0.158   26 -0.338 P
ANGELS       14 20 125 184  0.012 17.411   25 -0.110   25 -0.099   27 -0.210   26 0.4780    8  0.629   18 -0.043   29 -0.378   16 -0.011 P

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       21 16 127 122 -0.058 17.635   13  0.052   12  0.056   19 -0.017   14 0.5074   30 -0.006   27 -0.375    2  0.340   17 -0.016 P
TWINS        16 20 142 133 -0.021 17.663   21 -0.073   21 -0.079   16  0.003   24 0.4811   22  0.278   22 -0.141    8  0.147   14  0.042 P
TIGERS       22 13 179 116  0.057 17.885    4  0.181    4  0.179    2  0.260    4 0.5333    9  0.618    2  0.417   11  0.103   25 -0.337 P
WHITE SOX    10 26 127 155 -0.017 17.893   29 -0.277   29 -0.287   23 -0.141   29 0.4427   25  0.174   26 -0.367   14  0.084   13  0.125 P
GUARDIANS    21 15 149 165 -0.100 16.615   14  0.042   14  0.053   22 -0.099   12 0.5104    5  0.720   11  0.158   28 -0.356   27 -0.343 P

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    16 19 123 161 -0.091 16.457   23 -0.103   23 -0.094   25 -0.174   21 0.4845   29 -0.000   29 -0.527    6  0.180    3  0.372 P
RAYS         16 19 135 136 -0.061 16.723   20 -0.071   20 -0.078   21 -0.061   25 0.4810   24  0.256   23 -0.222   12  0.101   12  0.154 P
YANKEES      20 16 202 142 -0.018 17.461   12  0.064   13  0.055    3  0.187   10 0.5124   13  0.550    7  0.280   13  0.095    6  0.307 P
RED SOX      18 19 180 168 -0.136 16.462   22 -0.082   22 -0.086   20 -0.050   23 0.4815    7  0.639   12  0.127   24 -0.228   10  0.208 P
ORIOLES      13 21 130 193 -0.042 16.705   27 -0.165   27 -0.159   29 -0.240   27 0.4719   16  0.435   24 -0.252   25 -0.229    1  0.461 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    95 83 0.534    1  0.100
NL CENTRAL 89 96 0.481    2  0.078
AL CENTRAL 90 90 0.500    3  0.002
AL WEST    90 87 0.508    4 -0.035
NL EAST    91 88 0.508    5 -0.041
AL EAST    83 94 0.469    6 -0.114

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.140 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.017 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed May  7 05:30:07 2025
games through: Tue May  6 2025

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