Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      59 37 489 363  0.012 48.385    1  0.167    1  0.120    1  0.164    1 0.5309   22  0.411   13  0.077    2  0.251   12  0.022
DODGERS      61 36 506 357 -0.037 46.954    2  0.152    2  0.116    2  0.154    2 0.5298   14  0.525    4  0.168    8  0.139   23 -0.141
RAYS         56 38 425 393  0.013 47.530    3  0.098    3  0.099    5  0.065    3 0.5224   23  0.391   17 -0.039    6  0.170    9  0.094
BRAVES       55 40 460 368 -0.003 47.380    4  0.050    4  0.078    3  0.107    4 0.5193   18  0.493    9  0.092    9  0.121   15 -0.039
YANKEES      54 42 462 371 -0.016 47.398    5  0.024    5  0.057    4  0.095    7 0.5122   27  0.321   21 -0.069    1  0.258    5  0.269
CUBS         54 42 484 432 -0.015 47.487    6  0.024    6  0.057    8  0.039    5 0.5160    9  0.621    6  0.144   19 -0.066   11  0.023
PHILLIES     54 44 425 438 -0.005 48.962    7  0.016    7  0.049   17 -0.010    6 0.5127   30  0.297   28 -0.193    5  0.174    3  0.329
MARLINS      52 45 439 415  0.004 48.736    8  0.011    8  0.038   10  0.028    8 0.5102   10  0.581    8  0.095   18 -0.038   29 -0.290
CARDINALS    50 45 429 423  0.029 48.695    9  0.010    9  0.037   13  0.018    9 0.5098    6  0.654    5  0.156   22 -0.119   30 -0.310
GUARDIANS    51 46 385 387  0.015 49.157   10  0.007   10  0.031   14  0.004   11 0.5064   28  0.309   27 -0.169    4  0.178   16 -0.068
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WHITE SOX    50 45 454 419 -0.012 47.110   11  0.005   11  0.022    9  0.037   13 0.5036    4  0.681    2  0.200   24 -0.126   26 -0.260
DIAMONDBACKS 49 47 416 429  0.019 48.849   12  0.003   12  0.018   16 -0.001   12 0.5049   15  0.521   14  0.010   16 -0.011   19 -0.094
PIRATES      50 47 516 472  0.003 48.672   13  0.003   13  0.018    6  0.046   10 0.5068   11  0.552   11  0.086   15  0.007    6  0.268
NATIONALS    48 49 516 509  0.030 49.753   14  0.000   14  0.008   12  0.024   14 0.5026    3  0.684    3  0.190   26 -0.143    4  0.288
PADRES       48 48 379 422  0.007 48.450   15 -0.001   15  0.003   22 -0.037   15 0.5011   17  0.500   19 -0.045   17 -0.029   28 -0.270
RED SOX      46 48 385 358  0.015 47.656   16 -0.002   16 -0.004    7  0.043   17 0.4976   26  0.335   25 -0.109    3  0.195   18 -0.089
TWINS        48 49 471 485  0.002 48.741   17 -0.003   18 -0.005   18 -0.010   18 0.4970    1  0.814    1  0.290   30 -0.310   25 -0.227
RANGERS      49 47 399 414 -0.035 46.829   18 -0.003   17 -0.004   21 -0.034   16 0.4984   19  0.451   23 -0.087   14  0.018   20 -0.110
MARINERS     48 49 392 376 -0.032 47.398   19 -0.006   19 -0.018   15  0.000   19 0.4951   25  0.342   26 -0.145    7  0.146   24 -0.188
ORIOLES      46 51 447 466  0.001 48.681   20 -0.008   20 -0.025   19 -0.015   21 0.4924    8  0.621   10  0.091   23 -0.120   13 -0.003
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    45 51 392 427  0.013 48.672   21 -0.009   21 -0.026   20 -0.029   20 0.4927   21  0.432   24 -0.098   13  0.040   10  0.036
ASTROS       47 51 449 496 -0.015 48.622   22 -0.009   22 -0.027   24 -0.066   22 0.4916    5  0.663   12  0.080   27 -0.211   14 -0.019
TIGERS       44 52 407 383 -0.009 47.750   23 -0.015   24 -0.043   11  0.026   24 0.4885   20  0.449   16 -0.028   10  0.080   22 -0.133
REDS         43 52 395 455  0.015 48.300   24 -0.015   23 -0.041   23 -0.064   23 0.4907   13  0.534   18 -0.041   21 -0.087   17 -0.084
GIANTS       41 55 395 459  0.012 48.728   25 -0.035   25 -0.067   25 -0.080   25 0.4856   16  0.516   22 -0.074   20 -0.086   21 -0.128
ATHLETICS    41 55 422 528 -0.016 47.669   26 -0.054   26 -0.079   30 -0.126   27 0.4793   29  0.298   30 -0.308   12  0.057    1  0.734
METS         41 57 402 464 -0.004 49.098   27 -0.060   27 -0.084   26 -0.081   26 0.4805   24  0.350   29 -0.220   11  0.059    7  0.214
ROYALS       38 59 411 499  0.020 49.512   28 -0.101   28 -0.101   28 -0.098   29 0.4744   12  0.542   20 -0.067   25 -0.128    8  0.106
ROCKIES      39 59 466 555  0.000 49.296   29 -0.107   29 -0.104   29 -0.112   28 0.4772    7  0.636   15  0.007   28 -0.231    2  0.334
ANGELS       38 59 430 485 -0.019 48.022   30 -0.144   30 -0.116   27 -0.084   30 0.4717    2  0.740    7  0.139   29 -0.307   27 -0.268

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      61 36 506 357 -0.037 46.954    2  0.152    2  0.116    2  0.154    2 0.5298   14  0.525    4  0.168    8  0.139   23 -0.141
DIAMONDBACKS 49 47 416 429  0.019 48.849   12  0.003   12  0.018   16 -0.001   12 0.5049   15  0.521   14  0.010   16 -0.011   19 -0.094
PADRES       48 48 379 422  0.007 48.450   15 -0.001   15  0.003   22 -0.037   15 0.5011   17  0.500   19 -0.045   17 -0.029   28 -0.270
GIANTS       41 55 395 459  0.012 48.728   25 -0.035   25 -0.067   25 -0.080   25 0.4856   16  0.516   22 -0.074   20 -0.086   21 -0.128
ROCKIES      39 59 466 555  0.000 49.296   29 -0.107   29 -0.104   29 -0.112   28 0.4772    7  0.636   15  0.007   28 -0.231    2  0.334

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      59 37 489 363  0.012 48.385    1  0.167    1  0.120    1  0.164    1 0.5309   22  0.411   13  0.077    2  0.251   12  0.022
CUBS         54 42 484 432 -0.015 47.487    6  0.024    6  0.057    8  0.039    5 0.5160    9  0.621    6  0.144   19 -0.066   11  0.023
CARDINALS    50 45 429 423  0.029 48.695    9  0.010    9  0.037   13  0.018    9 0.5098    6  0.654    5  0.156   22 -0.119   30 -0.310
PIRATES      50 47 516 472  0.003 48.672   13  0.003   13  0.018    6  0.046   10 0.5068   11  0.552   11  0.086   15  0.007    6  0.268
REDS         43 52 395 455  0.015 48.300   24 -0.015   23 -0.041   23 -0.064   23 0.4907   13  0.534   18 -0.041   21 -0.087   17 -0.084

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       55 40 460 368 -0.003 47.380    4  0.050    4  0.078    3  0.107    4 0.5193   18  0.493    9  0.092    9  0.121   15 -0.039
PHILLIES     54 44 425 438 -0.005 48.962    7  0.016    7  0.049   17 -0.010    6 0.5127   30  0.297   28 -0.193    5  0.174    3  0.329
MARLINS      52 45 439 415  0.004 48.736    8  0.011    8  0.038   10  0.028    8 0.5102   10  0.581    8  0.095   18 -0.038   29 -0.290
NATIONALS    48 49 516 509  0.030 49.753   14  0.000   14  0.008   12  0.024   14 0.5026    3  0.684    3  0.190   26 -0.143    4  0.288
METS         41 57 402 464 -0.004 49.098   27 -0.060   27 -0.084   26 -0.081   26 0.4805   24  0.350   29 -0.220   11  0.059    7  0.214

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      49 47 399 414 -0.035 46.829   18 -0.003   17 -0.004   21 -0.034   16 0.4984   19  0.451   23 -0.087   14  0.018   20 -0.110
MARINERS     48 49 392 376 -0.032 47.398   19 -0.006   19 -0.018   15  0.000   19 0.4951   25  0.342   26 -0.145    7  0.146   24 -0.188
ASTROS       47 51 449 496 -0.015 48.622   22 -0.009   22 -0.027   24 -0.066   22 0.4916    5  0.663   12  0.080   27 -0.211   14 -0.019
ATHLETICS    41 55 422 528 -0.016 47.669   26 -0.054   26 -0.079   30 -0.126   27 0.4793   29  0.298   30 -0.308   12  0.057    1  0.734
ANGELS       38 59 430 485 -0.019 48.022   30 -0.144   30 -0.116   27 -0.084   30 0.4717    2  0.740    7  0.139   29 -0.307   27 -0.268

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GUARDIANS    51 46 385 387  0.015 49.157   10  0.007   10  0.031   14  0.004   11 0.5064   28  0.309   27 -0.169    4  0.178   16 -0.068
WHITE SOX    50 45 454 419 -0.012 47.110   11  0.005   11  0.022    9  0.037   13 0.5036    4  0.681    2  0.200   24 -0.126   26 -0.260
TWINS        48 49 471 485  0.002 48.741   17 -0.003   18 -0.005   18 -0.010   18 0.4970    1  0.814    1  0.290   30 -0.310   25 -0.227
TIGERS       44 52 407 383 -0.009 47.750   23 -0.015   24 -0.043   11  0.026   24 0.4885   20  0.449   16 -0.028   10  0.080   22 -0.133
ROYALS       38 59 411 499  0.020 49.512   28 -0.101   28 -0.101   28 -0.098   29 0.4744   12  0.542   20 -0.067   25 -0.128    8  0.106

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAYS         56 38 425 393  0.013 47.530    3  0.098    3  0.099    5  0.065    3 0.5224   23  0.391   17 -0.039    6  0.170    9  0.094
YANKEES      54 42 462 371 -0.016 47.398    5  0.024    5  0.057    4  0.095    7 0.5122   27  0.321   21 -0.069    1  0.258    5  0.269
RED SOX      46 48 385 358  0.015 47.656   16 -0.002   16 -0.004    7  0.043   17 0.4976   26  0.335   25 -0.109    3  0.195   18 -0.089
ORIOLES      46 51 447 466  0.001 48.681   20 -0.008   20 -0.025   19 -0.015   21 0.4924    8  0.621   10  0.091   23 -0.120   13 -0.003
BLUE JAYS    45 51 392 427  0.013 48.672   21 -0.009   21 -0.026   20 -0.029   20 0.4927   21  0.432   24 -0.098   13  0.040   10  0.036

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 256 223 0.534    1  0.080
AL EAST    247 230 0.518    2  0.063
NL EAST    250 235 0.515    3  0.027
AL CENTRAL 231 251 0.479    4 -0.016
NL WEST    238 245 0.493    5 -0.031
AL WEST    223 261 0.461    6 -0.122

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.047 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.006 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Jul 17 05:30:06 2026
games through: Thu Jul 16 2026

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.