Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        39 44 404 432 -0.004 41.873   22 -0.017   22 -0.029   22 -0.033   22 0.4898    1  0.855    1  0.319   30 -0.385   22 -0.173
NATIONALS    41 42 439 437  0.031 43.028   13 -0.003   13  0.008   10  0.019   12 0.5039    3  0.700    2  0.211   26 -0.172    3  0.287
CUBS         44 38 401 368 -0.014 40.946    8  0.006    9  0.028    7  0.027    7 0.5100    5  0.686    3  0.204   24 -0.150   18 -0.120
WHITE SOX    42 38 386 368  0.004 40.524   11  0.004   11  0.024    6  0.031   11 0.5051    6  0.679    4  0.202   22 -0.139   25 -0.208
ANGELS       34 49 377 419 -0.005 41.919   29 -0.079   29 -0.084   24 -0.061   28 0.4784    2  0.763    5  0.193   29 -0.316   30 -0.276
BRAVES       49 31 388 294  0.002 40.360    3  0.108    3  0.103    3  0.124    3 0.5278   10  0.551    6  0.171   13  0.077   28 -0.242
DODGERS      52 30 424 286 -0.023 40.467    2  0.149    2  0.116    2  0.167    2 0.5322   15  0.489    7  0.157    4  0.177   21 -0.172
CARDINALS    42 37 359 364 -0.007 39.754   10  0.005   10  0.026   17 -0.011   10 0.5072    8  0.651    8  0.132   25 -0.154   26 -0.218
ORIOLES      39 44 385 408  0.008 42.278   20 -0.014   20 -0.024   19 -0.023   21 0.4918    7  0.660    9  0.128   27 -0.174   13  0.034
ROCKIES      32 50 377 468  0.008 41.889   30 -0.113   30 -0.098   30 -0.117   30 0.4759    4  0.693   10  0.067   28 -0.301    7  0.201
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      50 29 413 286  0.007 39.935    1  0.170    1  0.123    1  0.179    1 0.5342   23  0.363   11  0.059    1  0.299   10  0.098
MARLINS      43 39 353 346  0.020 42.078    7  0.007    7  0.030    9  0.020    8 0.5090   12  0.521   12  0.039   17  0.000   27 -0.223
PIRATES      41 41 413 388 -0.017 40.866   15 -0.006   15 -0.006    8  0.021   15 0.5014   16  0.485   13  0.008   16  0.034    4  0.246
ASTROS       40 44 372 418 -0.025 41.726   23 -0.018   23 -0.031   27 -0.073   23 0.4893    9  0.576   14 -0.002   23 -0.143   11  0.091
DIAMONDBACKS 41 40 347 372  0.003 41.096   14 -0.003   14  0.007   20 -0.024   14 0.5019   13  0.521   15 -0.005   18 -0.043   17 -0.090
YANKEES      48 33 404 299 -0.031 39.836    5  0.048    5  0.074    4  0.120    5 0.5180   24  0.351   16 -0.010    2  0.250    5  0.242
REDS         38 42 337 385 -0.009 40.257   21 -0.016   21 -0.026   25 -0.062   20 0.4931   11  0.541   17 -0.025   21 -0.100   14 -0.023
RAYS         46 33 357 339  0.012 40.250    4  0.050    4  0.078    5  0.043    4 0.5184   20  0.407   18 -0.039    7  0.126   12  0.083
TIGERS       35 47 333 332 -0.011 41.106   26 -0.048   26 -0.070   15 -0.006   27 0.4796   19  0.421   19 -0.076   14  0.065   19 -0.131
GIANTS       33 48 329 385  0.048 42.640   25 -0.043   25 -0.066   26 -0.068   24 0.4853   17  0.483   20 -0.083   19 -0.053   15 -0.048
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       34 49 351 421  0.015 42.563   27 -0.067   27 -0.078   28 -0.076   29 0.4780   14  0.489   21 -0.086   20 -0.066    9  0.144
RED SOX      34 46 319 318  0.016 40.974   24 -0.037   24 -0.061   12  0.003   25 0.4825   21  0.388   22 -0.096   10  0.102   20 -0.150
RANGERS      40 42 330 342 -0.023 40.734   18 -0.012   19 -0.020   21 -0.027   17 0.4950   18  0.421   23 -0.097   15  0.042   24 -0.200
PADRES       43 37 316 315 -0.016 39.947    9  0.006    8  0.028   13 -0.003    9 0.5082   22  0.383   24 -0.106   11  0.101   29 -0.266
GUARDIANS    42 40 321 331  0.019 42.096   12  0.001   12  0.019   14 -0.005   13 0.5035   25  0.347   25 -0.138    6  0.128   23 -0.178
BLUE JAYS    39 43 337 366  0.024 42.289   17 -0.010   17 -0.013   18 -0.016   19 0.4946   26  0.343   26 -0.152    8  0.121    8  0.150
PHILLIES     46 36 361 356  0.008 41.703    6  0.027    6  0.059   11  0.012    6 0.5172   29  0.292   27 -0.167    3  0.190    2  0.300
MARINERS     42 41 334 328 -0.034 40.845   16 -0.007   16 -0.007   16 -0.009   16 0.4977   28  0.304   28 -0.178    5  0.160   16 -0.083
ATHLETICS    40 42 384 432 -0.022 40.843   19 -0.012   18 -0.019   23 -0.060   18 0.4947   27  0.338   29 -0.201   12  0.080    1  0.700
METS         34 48 329 377 -0.012 41.182   28 -0.075   28 -0.082   29 -0.078   26 0.4800   30  0.275   30 -0.271    9  0.114    6  0.221

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      52 30 424 286 -0.023 40.467    2  0.149    2  0.116    2  0.167    2 0.5322   15  0.489    7  0.157    4  0.177   21 -0.172
ROCKIES      32 50 377 468  0.008 41.889   30 -0.113   30 -0.098   30 -0.117   30 0.4759    4  0.693   10  0.067   28 -0.301    7  0.201
DIAMONDBACKS 41 40 347 372  0.003 41.096   14 -0.003   14  0.007   20 -0.024   14 0.5019   13  0.521   15 -0.005   18 -0.043   17 -0.090
GIANTS       33 48 329 385  0.048 42.640   25 -0.043   25 -0.066   26 -0.068   24 0.4853   17  0.483   20 -0.083   19 -0.053   15 -0.048
PADRES       43 37 316 315 -0.016 39.947    9  0.006    8  0.028   13 -0.003    9 0.5082   22  0.383   24 -0.106   11  0.101   29 -0.266

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         44 38 401 368 -0.014 40.946    8  0.006    9  0.028    7  0.027    7 0.5100    5  0.686    3  0.204   24 -0.150   18 -0.120
CARDINALS    42 37 359 364 -0.007 39.754   10  0.005   10  0.026   17 -0.011   10 0.5072    8  0.651    8  0.132   25 -0.154   26 -0.218
BREWERS      50 29 413 286  0.007 39.935    1  0.170    1  0.123    1  0.179    1 0.5342   23  0.363   11  0.059    1  0.299   10  0.098
PIRATES      41 41 413 388 -0.017 40.866   15 -0.006   15 -0.006    8  0.021   15 0.5014   16  0.485   13  0.008   16  0.034    4  0.246
REDS         38 42 337 385 -0.009 40.257   21 -0.016   21 -0.026   25 -0.062   20 0.4931   11  0.541   17 -0.025   21 -0.100   14 -0.023

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NATIONALS    41 42 439 437  0.031 43.028   13 -0.003   13  0.008   10  0.019   12 0.5039    3  0.700    2  0.211   26 -0.172    3  0.287
BRAVES       49 31 388 294  0.002 40.360    3  0.108    3  0.103    3  0.124    3 0.5278   10  0.551    6  0.171   13  0.077   28 -0.242
MARLINS      43 39 353 346  0.020 42.078    7  0.007    7  0.030    9  0.020    8 0.5090   12  0.521   12  0.039   17  0.000   27 -0.223
PHILLIES     46 36 361 356  0.008 41.703    6  0.027    6  0.059   11  0.012    6 0.5172   29  0.292   27 -0.167    3  0.190    2  0.300
METS         34 48 329 377 -0.012 41.182   28 -0.075   28 -0.082   29 -0.078   26 0.4800   30  0.275   30 -0.271    9  0.114    6  0.221

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANGELS       34 49 377 419 -0.005 41.919   29 -0.079   29 -0.084   24 -0.061   28 0.4784    2  0.763    5  0.193   29 -0.316   30 -0.276
ASTROS       40 44 372 418 -0.025 41.726   23 -0.018   23 -0.031   27 -0.073   23 0.4893    9  0.576   14 -0.002   23 -0.143   11  0.091
RANGERS      40 42 330 342 -0.023 40.734   18 -0.012   19 -0.020   21 -0.027   17 0.4950   18  0.421   23 -0.097   15  0.042   24 -0.200
MARINERS     42 41 334 328 -0.034 40.845   16 -0.007   16 -0.007   16 -0.009   16 0.4977   28  0.304   28 -0.178    5  0.160   16 -0.083
ATHLETICS    40 42 384 432 -0.022 40.843   19 -0.012   18 -0.019   23 -0.060   18 0.4947   27  0.338   29 -0.201   12  0.080    1  0.700

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        39 44 404 432 -0.004 41.873   22 -0.017   22 -0.029   22 -0.033   22 0.4898    1  0.855    1  0.319   30 -0.385   22 -0.173
WHITE SOX    42 38 386 368  0.004 40.524   11  0.004   11  0.024    6  0.031   11 0.5051    6  0.679    4  0.202   22 -0.139   25 -0.208
TIGERS       35 47 333 332 -0.011 41.106   26 -0.048   26 -0.070   15 -0.006   27 0.4796   19  0.421   19 -0.076   14  0.065   19 -0.131
ROYALS       34 49 351 421  0.015 42.563   27 -0.067   27 -0.078   28 -0.076   29 0.4780   14  0.489   21 -0.086   20 -0.066    9  0.144
GUARDIANS    42 40 321 331  0.019 42.096   12  0.001   12  0.019   14 -0.005   13 0.5035   25  0.347   25 -0.138    6  0.128   23 -0.178

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORIOLES      39 44 385 408  0.008 42.278   20 -0.014   20 -0.024   19 -0.023   21 0.4918    7  0.660    9  0.128   27 -0.174   13  0.034
YANKEES      48 33 404 299 -0.031 39.836    5  0.048    5  0.074    4  0.120    5 0.5180   24  0.351   16 -0.010    2  0.250    5  0.242
RAYS         46 33 357 339  0.012 40.250    4  0.050    4  0.078    5  0.043    4 0.5184   20  0.407   18 -0.039    7  0.126   12  0.083
RED SOX      34 46 319 318  0.016 40.974   24 -0.037   24 -0.061   12  0.003   25 0.4825   21  0.388   22 -0.096   10  0.102   20 -0.150
BLUE JAYS    39 43 337 366  0.024 42.289   17 -0.010   17 -0.013   18 -0.016   19 0.4946   26  0.343   26 -0.152    8  0.121    8  0.150

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 215 187 0.535    1  0.064
AL EAST    206 199 0.509    2  0.054
NL EAST    213 196 0.521    3  0.041
NL WEST    201 205 0.495    4 -0.022
AL CENTRAL 192 218 0.468    5 -0.038
AL WEST    196 218 0.473    6 -0.098

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.055 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jun 27 05:30:09 2026
games through: Fri Jun 26 2026

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.