Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM         W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      8 1 51 34  0.020  4.517    1  0.078    1  0.072    2  0.066    1 0.5709    7  0.664    5  0.233   17 -0.102   22 -0.113 P
TWINS        8 2 51 28  0.006  4.985    2  0.059    2  0.057    3  0.060    3 0.5520   15  0.568    9  0.136   14 -0.016   29 -0.455 P
CUBS         8 2 52 40 -0.126  4.458    3  0.053    3  0.049    6  0.036    4 0.5398    1  0.869    1  0.416   29 -0.343   30 -0.822 P
ROCKIES      7 2 50 30  0.011  4.520    4  0.050    4  0.047    4  0.049    2 0.5545   17  0.485   15  0.049   11  0.049    4  0.361 P
DODGERS      7 4 58 29  0.007  5.437    5  0.033    5  0.031    1  0.091    6 0.5314   28  0.183   24 -0.161    2  0.343   23 -0.126 P
PADRES       7 4 64 52  0.044  5.707    6  0.029    6  0.028    9  0.020    5 0.5329    8  0.652    7  0.176   21 -0.136   25 -0.214 P
BRAVES       7 4 59 47 -0.077  5.156    7  0.023    7  0.021    7  0.024    9 0.5103    5  0.683    6  0.211   22 -0.163   16 -0.011 P
ORIOLES      5 3 41 44  0.046  4.207    8  0.018    8  0.016   19 -0.015    7 0.5173    6  0.669    8  0.157   26 -0.188   11  0.071 P
WHITE SOX    6 4 56 49  0.023  5.126    9  0.017    9  0.016   12  0.006    8 0.5168    3  0.836    2  0.351   28 -0.338    2  0.392 P
ATHLETICS    6 4 41 34 -0.117  4.533   10  0.014   10  0.010   10  0.011   12 0.5048   29  0.124   29 -0.286    3  0.308   18 -0.020 P
TEAM         W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       5 4 52 41 -0.072  4.195   11  0.010   11  0.006    5  0.037   14 0.4987   18  0.469   18  0.022   10  0.052   19 -0.027 P
MARLINS      2 1 17 15 -0.077  1.430   12  0.004   12  0.001   23 -0.026   15 0.4978   10  0.638   11  0.116   23 -0.169   13  0.013 P
GIANTS       5 6 54 66  0.149  6.257   13  0.004   13  0.000   18 -0.014   11 0.5061    4  0.768    4  0.258   27 -0.287    6  0.295 P
NATIONALS    3 4 24 22  0.118  3.848   14  0.001   14 -0.003    8  0.023   10 0.5062   27  0.214   27 -0.205    4  0.252   24 -0.196 P
BLUE JAYS    3 4 25 26  0.128  3.915   15 -0.007   15 -0.007   15 -0.006   21 0.4865   24  0.293   25 -0.171    6  0.159   15  0.003 P
BREWERS      3 4 28 34  0.063  3.726   16 -0.007   16 -0.008   16 -0.009   17 0.4926   12  0.590   12  0.088   19 -0.106   20 -0.039 P
INDIANS      5 6 28 28  0.021  5.632   17 -0.007   17 -0.009   13  0.004   13 0.5016   30 -0.492   30 -0.673    1  0.682   14  0.006 P
CARDINALS    2 3 18 19  0.009  2.536   18 -0.009   18 -0.010   14  0.001   20 0.4865   23  0.344   22 -0.122    7  0.124   12  0.061 P
RAYS         4 6 46 44  0.029  5.155   19 -0.016   19 -0.019   11  0.008   19 0.4876   25  0.259   26 -0.185    5  0.200    1  0.396 P
REDS         5 5 50 45 -0.187  4.277   20 -0.016   20 -0.019   17 -0.012   16 0.4951   21  0.431   19 -0.061   12  0.036    3  0.389 P
TEAM         W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      3 5 27 37  0.002  4.087   21 -0.021   21 -0.023   25 -0.035   18 0.4889   22  0.353   23 -0.150    9  0.080   28 -0.414 P
TIGERS       5 5 38 49 -0.226  4.220   22 -0.023   22 -0.026   29 -0.077   24 0.4761   26  0.252   28 -0.275    8  0.122    7  0.239 P
PHILLIES     1 3 18 23 -0.078  1.908   23 -0.023   25 -0.028   21 -0.024   26 0.4735   14  0.572   14  0.055   18 -0.103    9  0.125 P
DIAMONDBACKS 3 7 27 52  0.184  5.874   24 -0.025   23 -0.026   27 -0.040   22 0.4831   19  0.462   20 -0.061   15 -0.019   10  0.091 P
MARINERS     4 7 46 71  0.062  5.933   25 -0.026   24 -0.027   28 -0.063   27 0.4657    2  0.866    3  0.313   30 -0.439   26 -0.216 P
METS         4 7 45 60  0.042  5.792   26 -0.026   26 -0.028   24 -0.033   25 0.4740   16  0.557   16  0.032   16 -0.099   27 -0.278 P
RED SOX      3 7 46 57  0.013  5.134   27 -0.034   27 -0.038   20 -0.020   23 0.4788    9  0.646   10  0.130   24 -0.170    8  0.203 P
ANGELS       3 7 49 56 -0.024  4.986   28 -0.041   28 -0.045   22 -0.025   28 0.4554   13  0.576   13  0.058   20 -0.109    5  0.334 P
PIRATES      2 8 34 47  0.097  5.503   29 -0.053   29 -0.056   26 -0.036   30 0.4533   20  0.447   21 -0.071   13 -0.001   17 -0.017 P
ROYALS       3 8 40 56 -0.088  5.267   30 -0.060   30 -0.063   30 -0.078   29 0.4548   11  0.601   17  0.030   25 -0.185   21 -0.046 P

NL WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM         W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKIES      7 2 50 30  0.011  4.520    4  0.050    4  0.047    4  0.049    2 0.5545   17  0.485   15  0.049   11  0.049    4  0.361 P
DODGERS      7 4 58 29  0.007  5.437    5  0.033    5  0.031    1  0.091    6 0.5314   28  0.183   24 -0.161    2  0.343   23 -0.126 P
PADRES       7 4 64 52  0.044  5.707    6  0.029    6  0.028    9  0.020    5 0.5329    8  0.652    7  0.176   21 -0.136   25 -0.214 P
GIANTS       5 6 54 66  0.149  6.257   13  0.004   13  0.000   18 -0.014   11 0.5061    4  0.768    4  0.258   27 -0.287    6  0.295 P
DIAMONDBACKS 3 7 27 52  0.184  5.874   24 -0.025   23 -0.026   27 -0.040   22 0.4831   19  0.462   20 -0.061   15 -0.019   10  0.091 P

NL CENTRAL
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM         W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         8 2 52 40 -0.126  4.458    3  0.053    3  0.049    6  0.036    4 0.5398    1  0.869    1  0.416   29 -0.343   30 -0.822 P
BREWERS      3 4 28 34  0.063  3.726   16 -0.007   16 -0.008   16 -0.009   17 0.4926   12  0.590   12  0.088   19 -0.106   20 -0.039 P
CARDINALS    2 3 18 19  0.009  2.536   18 -0.009   18 -0.010   14  0.001   20 0.4865   23  0.344   22 -0.122    7  0.124   12  0.061 P
REDS         5 5 50 45 -0.187  4.277   20 -0.016   20 -0.019   17 -0.012   16 0.4951   21  0.431   19 -0.061   12  0.036    3  0.389 P
PIRATES      2 8 34 47  0.097  5.503   29 -0.053   29 -0.056   26 -0.036   30 0.4533   20  0.447   21 -0.071   13 -0.001   17 -0.017 P

NL EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM         W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       7 4 59 47 -0.077  5.156    7  0.023    7  0.021    7  0.024    9 0.5103    5  0.683    6  0.211   22 -0.163   16 -0.011 P
MARLINS      2 1 17 15 -0.077  1.430   12  0.004   12  0.001   23 -0.026   15 0.4978   10  0.638   11  0.116   23 -0.169   13  0.013 P
NATIONALS    3 4 24 22  0.118  3.848   14  0.001   14 -0.003    8  0.023   10 0.5062   27  0.214   27 -0.205    4  0.252   24 -0.196 P
PHILLIES     1 3 18 23 -0.078  1.908   23 -0.023   25 -0.028   21 -0.024   26 0.4735   14  0.572   14  0.055   18 -0.103    9  0.125 P
METS         4 7 45 60  0.042  5.792   26 -0.026   26 -0.028   24 -0.033   25 0.4740   16  0.557   16  0.032   16 -0.099   27 -0.278 P

AL WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM         W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATHLETICS    6 4 41 34 -0.117  4.533   10  0.014   10  0.010   10  0.011   12 0.5048   29  0.124   29 -0.286    3  0.308   18 -0.020 P
ASTROS       5 4 52 41 -0.072  4.195   11  0.010   11  0.006    5  0.037   14 0.4987   18  0.469   18  0.022   10  0.052   19 -0.027 P
RANGERS      3 5 27 37  0.002  4.087   21 -0.021   21 -0.023   25 -0.035   18 0.4889   22  0.353   23 -0.150    9  0.080   28 -0.414 P
MARINERS     4 7 46 71  0.062  5.933   25 -0.026   24 -0.027   28 -0.063   27 0.4657    2  0.866    3  0.313   30 -0.439   26 -0.216 P
ANGELS       3 7 49 56 -0.024  4.986   28 -0.041   28 -0.045   22 -0.025   28 0.4554   13  0.576   13  0.058   20 -0.109    5  0.334 P

AL CENTRAL
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM         W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        8 2 51 28  0.006  4.985    2  0.059    2  0.057    3  0.060    3 0.5520   15  0.568    9  0.136   14 -0.016   29 -0.455 P
WHITE SOX    6 4 56 49  0.023  5.126    9  0.017    9  0.016   12  0.006    8 0.5168    3  0.836    2  0.351   28 -0.338    2  0.392 P
INDIANS      5 6 28 28  0.021  5.632   17 -0.007   17 -0.009   13  0.004   13 0.5016   30 -0.492   30 -0.673    1  0.682   14  0.006 P
TIGERS       5 5 38 49 -0.226  4.220   22 -0.023   22 -0.026   29 -0.077   24 0.4761   26  0.252   28 -0.275    8  0.122    7  0.239 P
ROYALS       3 8 40 56 -0.088  5.267   30 -0.060   30 -0.063   30 -0.078   29 0.4548   11  0.601   17  0.030   25 -0.185   21 -0.046 P

AL EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM         W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      8 1 51 34  0.020  4.517    1  0.078    1  0.072    2  0.066    1 0.5709    7  0.664    5  0.233   17 -0.102   22 -0.113 P
ORIOLES      5 3 41 44  0.046  4.207    8  0.018    8  0.016   19 -0.015    7 0.5173    6  0.669    8  0.157   26 -0.188   11  0.071 P
BLUE JAYS    3 4 25 26  0.128  3.915   15 -0.007   15 -0.007   15 -0.006   21 0.4865   24  0.293   25 -0.171    6  0.159   15  0.003 P
RAYS         4 6 46 44  0.029  5.155   19 -0.016   19 -0.019   11  0.008   19 0.4876   25  0.259   26 -0.185    5  0.200    1  0.396 P
RED SOX      3 7 46 57  0.013  5.134   27 -0.034   27 -0.038   20 -0.020   23 0.4788    9  0.646   10  0.130   24 -0.170    8  0.203 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    29 23 0.558    1  0.122
AL EAST    23 21 0.523    2  0.045
NL CENTRAL 20 22 0.476    3 -0.010
NL EAST    17 19 0.472    4 -0.037
AL WEST    21 27 0.438    5 -0.068
AL CENTRAL 27 25 0.519    6 -0.071

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.074 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.006 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Aug  4 05:30:11 2020
games through: Mon Aug  3 2020

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