Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      15  2 564 342  0.176  8.977    1  0.748    1  0.758    1  0.628    1 0.6328    3  1.510    1  0.964    6  0.291
CHIEFS     15  2 385 326  0.050  8.627    2  0.715    2  0.722   13  0.108    2 0.6239   28  1.114   19 -0.096    4  0.311
EAGLES     15  3 485 313 -0.004  8.236    3  0.583    3  0.573    4  0.454    3 0.6002   22  1.187    8  0.343    1  0.566
VIKINGS    14  4 441 359  0.087  9.251    4  0.561    4  0.550    8  0.175    4 0.5911   14  1.243    9  0.137    9  0.214
BILLS      14  4 556 375  0.068  8.778    5  0.522    5  0.506    3  0.460    6 0.5801    2  1.523    3  0.816   14  0.103
RAVENS     13  5 546 375  0.107  9.185    6  0.436    6  0.408    2  0.538    5 0.5832    4  1.501    2  0.860    8  0.215
COMMANDERS 13  5 508 411 -0.065  8.205    7  0.353    7  0.340   11  0.142    7 0.5589    5  1.490    7  0.449   21 -0.165
PACKERS    11  7 470 360  0.182  9.714    8  0.292    8  0.277    5  0.385    8 0.5525   12  1.327    6  0.459    5  0.311
RAMS       11  7 394 395  0.107  9.710    9  0.252    9  0.258    9  0.171    9 0.5433   20  1.225   10  0.108    7  0.233
SEAHAWKS   10  7 375 368  0.089  9.017   10  0.190   10  0.186   12  0.122   10 0.5311   19  1.226   14  0.061   11  0.183
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHARGERS   11  7 414 333 -0.020  8.599   11  0.176   12  0.171   10  0.166   11 0.5302   27  1.128   16 -0.020    3  0.352
TEXANS     11  7 404 384 -0.023  8.816   12  0.175   11  0.174   16  0.042   12 0.5279   18  1.229   15 -0.015   15  0.099
STEELERS   10  8 394 375  0.043  9.211   13  0.115   13  0.112   17 -0.014   13 0.5254   24  1.152   20 -0.170   12  0.141
BRONCOS    10  8 432 342  0.056  9.002   14  0.114   14  0.109    6  0.269   14 0.5230   25  1.145   11  0.104    2  0.433
BUCCANEERS 10  8 522 408 -0.002  8.555   15  0.081   15  0.078    7  0.228   15 0.5224    6  1.461    5  0.492   17 -0.036
BENGALS     9  8 472 434 -0.067  7.954   16  0.001   17 -0.008   14  0.096   16 0.5039    1  1.605    4  0.577   29 -0.385
CARDINALS   8  9 400 379  0.102  9.081   17 -0.000   16 -0.006   15  0.091   17 0.5010   13  1.281   12  0.102   16  0.080
FALCONS     8  9 389 423 -0.085  8.169   18 -0.081   18 -0.093   20 -0.136   18 0.4928   10  1.351   17 -0.029   23 -0.242
COLTS       8  9 377 427 -0.083  8.231   19 -0.085   19 -0.098   23 -0.228   20 0.4724    9  1.409   18 -0.039   31 -0.418
DOLPHINS    8  9 345 364 -0.117  7.914   20 -0.111   20 -0.125   18 -0.052   22 0.4628   26  1.129   23 -0.237   13  0.133
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
49ERS       6 11 389 436  0.123  9.462   21 -0.158   22 -0.172   19 -0.101   21 0.4715    8  1.418   13  0.100   27 -0.302
COWBOYS     7 10 350 468 -0.065  8.613   22 -0.165   21 -0.161   27 -0.301   19 0.4788   11  1.339   21 -0.210   30 -0.391
BEARS       5 12 310 370  0.056  9.183   23 -0.308   23 -0.315   21 -0.143   23 0.4468   31  1.005   29 -0.477   10  0.190
JETS        5 12 338 404 -0.028  8.545   24 -0.364   24 -0.376   22 -0.188   26 0.4239   21  1.218   24 -0.260   20 -0.116
SAINTS      5 12 338 398 -0.133  8.064   25 -0.423   26 -0.443   28 -0.343   24 0.4322   23  1.172   28 -0.474   22 -0.212
PANTHERS    5 12 341 534 -0.131  8.396   26 -0.424   25 -0.405   31 -0.472   25 0.4297    7  1.448   22 -0.226   32 -0.717
RAIDERS     4 13 309 434 -0.040  8.809   27 -0.466   27 -0.460   24 -0.284   27 0.4214   15  1.242   25 -0.325   24 -0.244
PATRIOTS    4 13 289 417 -0.062  8.474   28 -0.474   28 -0.468   26 -0.297   31 0.3980   29  1.109   30 -0.506   18 -0.088
JAGUARS     4 13 320 435 -0.129  8.207   29 -0.530   29 -0.541   25 -0.296   30 0.4005   16  1.234   26 -0.347   25 -0.245
BROWNS      3 14 258 435 -0.055  8.909   30 -0.557   30 -0.564   32 -0.526   29 0.4024   30  1.055   32 -0.801   26 -0.252
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TITANS      3 14 311 460 -0.050  8.757   31 -0.572   31 -0.581   29 -0.404   32 0.3918   17  1.229   27 -0.461   28 -0.347
GIANTS      3 14 273 415 -0.097  8.530   32 -0.595   32 -0.607   30 -0.444   28 0.4065   32  0.991   31 -0.793   19 -0.094

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     15  2 385 326  0.050  8.627    2  0.715    2  0.722   13  0.108    2 0.6239   28  1.114   19 -0.096    4  0.311
CHARGERS   11  7 414 333 -0.020  8.599   11  0.176   12  0.171   10  0.166   11 0.5302   27  1.128   16 -0.020    3  0.352
BRONCOS    10  8 432 342  0.056  9.002   14  0.114   14  0.109    6  0.269   14 0.5230   25  1.145   11  0.104    2  0.433
RAIDERS     4 13 309 434 -0.040  8.809   27 -0.466   27 -0.460   24 -0.284   27 0.4214   15  1.242   25 -0.325   24 -0.244

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     11  7 404 384 -0.023  8.816   12  0.175   11  0.174   16  0.042   12 0.5279   18  1.229   15 -0.015   15  0.099
COLTS       8  9 377 427 -0.083  8.231   19 -0.085   19 -0.098   23 -0.228   20 0.4724    9  1.409   18 -0.039   31 -0.418
JAGUARS     4 13 320 435 -0.129  8.207   29 -0.530   29 -0.541   25 -0.296   30 0.4005   16  1.234   26 -0.347   25 -0.245
TITANS      3 14 311 460 -0.050  8.757   31 -0.572   31 -0.581   29 -0.404   32 0.3918   17  1.229   27 -0.461   28 -0.347

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     13  5 546 375  0.107  9.185    6  0.436    6  0.408    2  0.538    5 0.5832    4  1.501    2  0.860    8  0.215
STEELERS   10  8 394 375  0.043  9.211   13  0.115   13  0.112   17 -0.014   13 0.5254   24  1.152   20 -0.170   12  0.141
BENGALS     9  8 472 434 -0.067  7.954   16  0.001   17 -0.008   14  0.096   16 0.5039    1  1.605    4  0.577   29 -0.385
BROWNS      3 14 258 435 -0.055  8.909   30 -0.557   30 -0.564   32 -0.526   29 0.4024   30  1.055   32 -0.801   26 -0.252

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      14  4 556 375  0.068  8.778    5  0.522    5  0.506    3  0.460    6 0.5801    2  1.523    3  0.816   14  0.103
DOLPHINS    8  9 345 364 -0.117  7.914   20 -0.111   20 -0.125   18 -0.052   22 0.4628   26  1.129   23 -0.237   13  0.133
JETS        5 12 338 404 -0.028  8.545   24 -0.364   24 -0.376   22 -0.188   26 0.4239   21  1.218   24 -0.260   20 -0.116
PATRIOTS    4 13 289 417 -0.062  8.474   28 -0.474   28 -0.468   26 -0.297   31 0.3980   29  1.109   30 -0.506   18 -0.088

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       11  7 394 395  0.107  9.710    9  0.252    9  0.258    9  0.171    9 0.5433   20  1.225   10  0.108    7  0.233
SEAHAWKS   10  7 375 368  0.089  9.017   10  0.190   10  0.186   12  0.122   10 0.5311   19  1.226   14  0.061   11  0.183
CARDINALS   8  9 400 379  0.102  9.081   17 -0.000   16 -0.006   15  0.091   17 0.5010   13  1.281   12  0.102   16  0.080
49ERS       6 11 389 436  0.123  9.462   21 -0.158   22 -0.172   19 -0.101   21 0.4715    8  1.418   13  0.100   27 -0.302

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS 10  8 522 408 -0.002  8.555   15  0.081   15  0.078    7  0.228   15 0.5224    6  1.461    5  0.492   17 -0.036
FALCONS     8  9 389 423 -0.085  8.169   18 -0.081   18 -0.093   20 -0.136   18 0.4928   10  1.351   17 -0.029   23 -0.242
SAINTS      5 12 338 398 -0.133  8.064   25 -0.423   26 -0.443   28 -0.343   24 0.4322   23  1.172   28 -0.474   22 -0.212
PANTHERS    5 12 341 534 -0.131  8.396   26 -0.424   25 -0.405   31 -0.472   25 0.4297    7  1.448   22 -0.226   32 -0.717

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      15  2 564 342  0.176  8.977    1  0.748    1  0.758    1  0.628    1 0.6328    3  1.510    1  0.964    6  0.291
VIKINGS    14  4 441 359  0.087  9.251    4  0.561    4  0.550    8  0.175    4 0.5911   14  1.243    9  0.137    9  0.214
PACKERS    11  7 470 360  0.182  9.714    8  0.292    8  0.277    5  0.385    8 0.5525   12  1.327    6  0.459    5  0.311
BEARS       5 12 310 370  0.056  9.183   23 -0.308   23 -0.315   21 -0.143   23 0.4468   31  1.005   29 -0.477   10  0.190

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     15  3 485 313 -0.004  8.236    3  0.583    3  0.573    4  0.454    3 0.6002   22  1.187    8  0.343    1  0.566
COMMANDERS 13  5 508 411 -0.065  8.205    7  0.353    7  0.340   11  0.142    7 0.5589    5  1.490    7  0.449   21 -0.165
COWBOYS     7 10 350 468 -0.065  8.613   22 -0.165   21 -0.161   27 -0.301   19 0.4788   11  1.339   21 -0.210   30 -0.391
GIANTS      3 14 273 415 -0.097  8.530   32 -0.595   32 -0.607   30 -0.444   28 0.4065   32  0.991   31 -0.793   19 -0.094

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  45 25 0.643    1  0.448
AFC WEST   40 30 0.571    2  0.125
NFC WEST   35 34 0.507    3  0.111
AFC NORTH  35 35 0.500    4  0.046
NFC EAST   38 32 0.543    5 -0.085
AFC EAST   31 38 0.449    6 -0.087
NFC SOUTH  28 41 0.406    7 -0.283
AFC SOUTH  26 43 0.377    8 -0.338

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.143 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Jan 14 05:30:10 2025
games through: Mon Jan 13 2025

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