Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
New Hampshire Tech      24  0 2127 1673 -3.354    1 -1.472    1 -1.481    5 -2.431    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  9.978    4 -1.861    9 -3.001
La Sierra                7 17 1596 1878 -1.423    2 -1.884    2 -1.978    2 -2.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  8.853    8 -2.469    1 -2.046
Hesser                  18  6 1983 1724 -2.963    3 -2.251    3 -2.342    7 -2.546    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.984    6 -2.190    5 -2.902
Cincinnati-Clermont     20 12 2712 2492 -2.510    4 -2.303    4 -2.400    1 -2.068    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  7.842    1 -1.352    3 -2.784
West Coast Baptist      10 17 2117 2196 -2.124    5 -2.489    5 -2.634    3 -2.265    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  7.279    2 -1.458   10 -3.073
Central Maine CC        17  5 1945 1598 -3.275    6 -2.505    6 -2.656    4 -2.337    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  7.308    3 -1.582   11 -3.091
Golden St Baptist       11 12 1681 1694 -2.567    7 -2.516    7 -2.674    8 -2.655    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.995    7 -2.395    6 -2.915
Southern Maine CC       14  7 1701 1484 -3.215    8 -2.786    8 -2.889    9 -2.759    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  6.567    9 -2.530    8 -2.988
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    17 14 2247 2238 -3.112    9 -2.859    9 -2.999   10 -3.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  6.125   12 -3.083   12 -3.176
Williamson Trade         3  8  639  798 -2.395   10 -2.882   10 -3.038   11 -3.158    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.976   18 -3.970    2 -2.345
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Taylor-Fort Wayne        9 17 2095 2081 -2.399   11 -2.971   11 -3.167    6 -2.475    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  5.922    5 -1.995    7 -2.955
Marion Military          5  3  554  512 -3.527   12 -3.032   12 -3.269   12 -3.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  5.298   15 -3.660    4 -2.854
Ohio St-Marion           5 13 1180 1664 -3.015   13 -3.063   13 -3.319   15 -3.734    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  5.056   13 -3.236   18 -4.232
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     3  2  437  449 -4.078   14 -3.282   14 -3.689   17 -3.930    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.375   10 -2.582   24 -5.277
Vermont Tech            10 13 1639 1688 -3.754   15 -3.364   15 -3.863   16 -3.865    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  4.169   17 -3.953   15 -3.777
Christendom             10  9 1192 1280 -4.528   16 -3.442   16 -3.919   22 -4.565    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.757   23 -5.104   17 -4.026
World Harvest Bible      0  6  358  489 -2.139   17 -3.502   17 -4.009   13 -3.445    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.885   14 -3.600   13 -3.290
Eastern Maine CC         6 10 1193 1365 -4.031   18 -3.572   18 -4.151   21 -4.552    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  3.122   19 -4.078   22 -5.026
Temple Baptist           5 24 1807 2375 -3.208   19 -3.584   19 -4.170   18 -4.013    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  3.474   21 -4.314   14 -3.712
Unity                    8 11 1275 1411 -4.261   20 -3.638   20 -4.266   20 -4.458    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  2.905   22 -4.965   16 -3.952
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Maine-Augusta            4 12 1253 1354 -3.370   21 -3.684   21 -4.378   14 -3.688    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  3.241   11 -3.048   19 -4.327
Warren Wilson            2 17 1095 1653 -3.573   22 -3.789   22 -4.569   23 -4.768    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  2.261   24 -5.189   20 -4.346
MassBay CC               2 11  930 1080 -3.710   23 -3.860   23 -4.692   19 -4.190    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  2.335   16 -3.947   21 -4.434
Paul Smith's             0 10  553  907 -3.640   24 -3.972   24 -4.989   25 -5.396    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  1.649   25 -5.519   23 -5.273
Northern Maine CC        2 11  972 1161 -4.331   25 -3.986   25 -5.045   24 -4.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  1.739   20 -4.103   25 -5.720


USCAA-II: strength=-3.455 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
New Hampshire Tech      24  0 2127 1673 -3.354    1 -1.472    1 -1.481    5 -2.431    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  9.978    4 -1.861    9 -3.001
La Sierra                7 17 1596 1878 -1.423    2 -1.884    2 -1.978    2 -2.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  8.853    8 -2.469    1 -2.046
Hesser                  18  6 1983 1724 -2.963    3 -2.251    3 -2.342    7 -2.546    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.984    6 -2.190    5 -2.902
Cincinnati-Clermont     20 12 2712 2492 -2.510    4 -2.303    4 -2.400    1 -2.068    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  7.842    1 -1.352    3 -2.784
West Coast Baptist      10 17 2117 2196 -2.124    5 -2.489    5 -2.634    3 -2.265    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  7.279    2 -1.458   10 -3.073
Central Maine CC        17  5 1945 1598 -3.275    6 -2.505    6 -2.656    4 -2.337    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  7.308    3 -1.582   11 -3.091
Golden St Baptist       11 12 1681 1694 -2.567    7 -2.516    7 -2.674    8 -2.655    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.995    7 -2.395    6 -2.915
Southern Maine CC       14  7 1701 1484 -3.215    8 -2.786    8 -2.889    9 -2.759    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  6.567    9 -2.530    8 -2.988
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    17 14 2247 2238 -3.112    9 -2.859    9 -2.999   10 -3.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  6.125   12 -3.083   12 -3.176
Williamson Trade         3  8  639  798 -2.395   10 -2.882   10 -3.038   11 -3.158    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.976   18 -3.970    2 -2.345
Taylor-Fort Wayne        9 17 2095 2081 -2.399   11 -2.971   11 -3.167    6 -2.475    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  5.922    5 -1.995    7 -2.955
Marion Military          5  3  554  512 -3.527   12 -3.032   12 -3.269   12 -3.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  5.298   15 -3.660    4 -2.854
Ohio St-Marion           5 13 1180 1664 -3.015   13 -3.063   13 -3.319   15 -3.734    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  5.056   13 -3.236   18 -4.232
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     3  2  437  449 -4.078   14 -3.282   14 -3.689   17 -3.930    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.375   10 -2.582   24 -5.277
Vermont Tech            10 13 1639 1688 -3.754   15 -3.364   15 -3.863   16 -3.865    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  4.169   17 -3.953   15 -3.777
Christendom             10  9 1192 1280 -4.528   16 -3.442   16 -3.919   22 -4.565    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.757   23 -5.104   17 -4.026
World Harvest Bible      0  6  358  489 -2.139   17 -3.502   17 -4.009   13 -3.445    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.885   14 -3.600   13 -3.290
Eastern Maine CC         6 10 1193 1365 -4.031   18 -3.572   18 -4.151   21 -4.552    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  3.122   19 -4.078   22 -5.026
Temple Baptist           5 24 1807 2375 -3.208   19 -3.584   19 -4.170   18 -4.013    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  3.474   21 -4.314   14 -3.712
Unity                    8 11 1275 1411 -4.261   20 -3.638   20 -4.266   20 -4.458    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  2.905   22 -4.965   16 -3.952
Maine-Augusta            4 12 1253 1354 -3.370   21 -3.684   21 -4.378   14 -3.688    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  3.241   11 -3.048   19 -4.327
Warren Wilson            2 17 1095 1653 -3.573   22 -3.789   22 -4.569   23 -4.768    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  2.261   24 -5.189   20 -4.346
MassBay CC               2 11  930 1080 -3.710   23 -3.860   23 -4.692   19 -4.190    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  2.335   16 -3.947   21 -4.434
Paul Smith's             0 10  553  907 -3.640   24 -3.972   24 -4.989   25 -5.396    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  1.649   25 -5.519   23 -5.273
Northern Maine CC        2 11  972 1161 -4.331   25 -3.986   25 -5.045   24 -4.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  1.739   20 -4.103   25 -5.720

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
USCAA-II                212 267 0.443    1 -3.455

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:22:59 2019

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