Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             36  2 2783 2197 -0.513    1  1.064    1  0.758    1  0.388    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 19.657    8 -0.142    1  0.918
Concordia QC            26  5 2447 2098 -0.543    2  0.426    2  0.256    3  0.141    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 17.822    2  0.287    4 -0.006
Brock                   30  8 2945 2489 -0.483    3  0.342    3  0.158    2  0.208    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 17.599    1  0.352    3  0.063
Victoria                25 10 2609 2407 -0.291    4  0.315    4  0.149    4 -0.076    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 17.383   13 -0.260    2  0.109
St Francis Xavier       27  6 2543 2285 -0.733    5  0.212    5  0.071    7 -0.168    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 17.022    5  0.050   11 -0.385
Laval                   24  8 2443 2200 -0.589    6  0.089    6 -0.028    5 -0.143    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.609    6 -0.060    6 -0.227
Waterloo                26  8 2455 2276 -0.800    7  0.002    7 -0.111   12 -0.458    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 16.123   15 -0.534   10 -0.383
Alberta                 24 17 3104 3049 -0.303    8 -0.028    8 -0.141    8 -0.216    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 16.023    7 -0.071    8 -0.361
Saskatchewan            25 12 3010 2851 -0.573    9 -0.109    9 -0.194   11 -0.397    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.766    3  0.256   27 -1.049
Calgary                 18 14 2477 2323 -0.459   10 -0.304   11 -0.407    9 -0.329    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 15.068   10 -0.161   13 -0.496
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Brandon                 25 11 2752 2537 -0.869   11 -0.307   10 -0.403   14 -0.589    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 14.968   17 -0.632   14 -0.546
UBC                     15 14 2280 2078 -0.400   12 -0.386   12 -0.487    6 -0.146    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 14.777    4  0.089    9 -0.381
York ON                 21 12 2352 2309 -0.875   13 -0.416   13 -0.489   19 -0.842    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.315   20 -0.746   22 -0.938
Simon Fraser            14 16 2249 2264 -0.379   14 -0.432   14 -0.508   13 -0.459    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 14.404   12 -0.195   16 -0.724
UCCB                    23 10 2506 2281 -1.113   15 -0.553   15 -0.591   18 -0.813    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.108   18 -0.677   24 -0.949
McMaster                20 14 2503 2460 -0.865   16 -0.600   16 -0.641   16 -0.791    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 13.861   14 -0.434   29 -1.149
UQAM                    14 12 2002 1973 -0.758   17 -0.644   17 -0.689   15 -0.709    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 13.636   11 -0.168   32 -1.249
Ottawa ON               21 18 2677 2502 -0.737   18 -0.682   18 -0.734   10 -0.394    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 13.626   22 -0.767    5 -0.021
Regina                  19 20 3029 3109 -0.762   19 -0.708   19 -0.766   17 -0.801    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.326    9 -0.157   38 -1.444
Trinity Western          9 16 1794 1956 -0.499   20 -0.780   20 -0.827   25 -0.989    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 13.097   21 -0.749   31 -1.228
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Mary's NS            21 18 2690 2654 -0.931   21 -0.782   21 -0.830   21 -0.919    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.218   29 -1.193   15 -0.646
Laurier                 16 17 2289 2300 -0.787   22 -0.788   22 -0.835   20 -0.859    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.229   24 -0.955   17 -0.764
UPEI                    16 16 2274 2294 -1.012   23 -0.943   23 -0.977   26 -1.003    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.555   25 -0.968   26 -1.038
Toronto                 17 17 2310 2320 -1.001   24 -0.944   24 -0.978   23 -0.971    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.497   26 -1.100   19 -0.843
Lethbridge U.           10 21 2268 2449 -0.566   25 -0.950   25 -0.985   22 -0.955    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.407   19 -0.683   30 -1.226
Guelph                  16 19 2296 2305 -1.015   26 -1.096   26 -1.117   24 -0.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.112   34 -1.462   12 -0.491
Lakehead                14 21 2373 2460 -0.888   27 -1.103   27 -1.123   27 -1.050    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.071   30 -1.233   21 -0.867
Winnipeg                11 19 2280 2406 -0.879   28 -1.156   28 -1.153   28 -1.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 11.867   16 -0.619   39 -1.561
Queen's ON              15 19 2047 2137 -1.115   29 -1.178   29 -1.186   34 -1.275    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 11.602   40 -2.284    7 -0.267
Acadia                  15 20 2349 2402 -1.122   30 -1.242   30 -1.259   33 -1.268    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.341   35 -1.591   23 -0.945
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UNB                     10 20 2119 2253 -0.890   31 -1.260   31 -1.281   29 -1.104    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.259   23 -0.946   34 -1.261
Windsor                 10 22 2148 2354 -0.910   32 -1.297   32 -1.326   35 -1.305    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.018   31 -1.303   35 -1.307
Laurentian              13 20 2204 2364 -1.175   33 -1.307   33 -1.337   37 -1.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 10.825   33 -1.418   37 -1.340
Bishop's                 6 19 1623 1852 -0.746   34 -1.329   34 -1.361   36 -1.349    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 10.793   36 -1.643   28 -1.055
Memorial                 9 23 2184 2400 -0.932   35 -1.389   35 -1.429   31 -1.252    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 10.522   28 -1.192   36 -1.312
McGill                   8 20 1921 2081 -0.975   36 -1.415   36 -1.463   30 -1.217    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 10.402   27 -1.178   33 -1.255
Dalhousie               10 22 2098 2207 -1.103   37 -1.507   37 -1.520   32 -1.265    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 10.315   37 -1.672   20 -0.857
Manitoba                 6 24 2085 2390 -0.887   38 -1.579   38 -1.609   39 -1.498    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  9.849   32 -1.348   40 -1.648
Western ON               6 22 1696 1913 -1.032   39 -1.650   39 -1.690   38 -1.447    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  9.695   38 -2.084   18 -0.810
RMC                      4 25 1630 1962 -1.307   40 -1.996   40 -2.131   40 -1.875    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  8.505   41 -2.747   25 -1.003
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ryerson                  2 29 1884 2396 -1.234   41 -2.254   41 -2.343   41 -1.991    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  7.908   39 -2.115   41 -1.867


CIS-Atlantic: strength=-1.030 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Saskatchewan            25 12 3010 2851 -0.573    9 -0.109    9 -0.194   11 -0.397    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.766    3  0.256   27 -1.049
UCCB                    23 10 2506 2281 -1.113   15 -0.553   15 -0.591   18 -0.813    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.108   18 -0.677   24 -0.949
St Mary's NS            21 18 2690 2654 -0.931   21 -0.782   21 -0.830   21 -0.919    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.218   29 -1.193   15 -0.646
UPEI                    16 16 2274 2294 -1.012   23 -0.943   23 -0.977   26 -1.003    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.555   25 -0.968   26 -1.038
Acadia                  15 20 2349 2402 -1.122   30 -1.242   30 -1.259   33 -1.268    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.341   35 -1.591   23 -0.945
UNB                     10 20 2119 2253 -0.890   31 -1.260   31 -1.281   29 -1.104    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.259   23 -0.946   34 -1.261
Memorial                 9 23 2184 2400 -0.932   35 -1.389   35 -1.429   31 -1.252    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 10.522   28 -1.192   36 -1.312
Dalhousie               10 22 2098 2207 -1.103   37 -1.507   37 -1.520   32 -1.265    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 10.315   37 -1.672   20 -0.857

Canada West: strength=-0.556 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Victoria                25 10 2609 2407 -0.291    4  0.315    4  0.149    4 -0.076    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 17.383   13 -0.260    2  0.109
St Francis Xavier       27  6 2543 2285 -0.733    5  0.212    5  0.071    7 -0.168    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 17.022    5  0.050   11 -0.385
Alberta                 24 17 3104 3049 -0.303    8 -0.028    8 -0.141    8 -0.216    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 16.023    7 -0.071    8 -0.361
Calgary                 18 14 2477 2323 -0.459   10 -0.304   11 -0.407    9 -0.329    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 15.068   10 -0.161   13 -0.496
Brandon                 25 11 2752 2537 -0.869   11 -0.307   10 -0.403   14 -0.589    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 14.968   17 -0.632   14 -0.546
UBC                     15 14 2280 2078 -0.400   12 -0.386   12 -0.487    6 -0.146    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 14.777    4  0.089    9 -0.381
Simon Fraser            14 16 2249 2264 -0.379   14 -0.432   14 -0.508   13 -0.459    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 14.404   12 -0.195   16 -0.724
Regina                  19 20 3029 3109 -0.762   19 -0.708   19 -0.766   17 -0.801    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.326    9 -0.157   38 -1.444
Trinity Western          9 16 1794 1956 -0.499   20 -0.780   20 -0.827   25 -0.989    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 13.097   21 -0.749   31 -1.228
Lethbridge U.           10 21 2268 2449 -0.566   25 -0.950   25 -0.985   22 -0.955    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.407   19 -0.683   30 -1.226
Winnipeg                11 19 2280 2406 -0.879   28 -1.156   28 -1.153   28 -1.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 11.867   16 -0.619   39 -1.561
Manitoba                 6 24 2085 2390 -0.887   38 -1.579   38 -1.609   39 -1.498    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  9.849   32 -1.348   40 -1.648

CIS-Ontario: strength=-0.990 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             36  2 2783 2197 -0.513    1  1.064    1  0.758    1  0.388    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 19.657    8 -0.142    1  0.918
Brock                   30  8 2945 2489 -0.483    3  0.342    3  0.158    2  0.208    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 17.599    1  0.352    3  0.063
Waterloo                26  8 2455 2276 -0.800    7  0.002    7 -0.111   12 -0.458    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 16.123   15 -0.534   10 -0.383
York ON                 21 12 2352 2309 -0.875   13 -0.416   13 -0.489   19 -0.842    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.315   20 -0.746   22 -0.938
McMaster                20 14 2503 2460 -0.865   16 -0.600   16 -0.641   16 -0.791    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 13.861   14 -0.434   29 -1.149
Ottawa ON               21 18 2677 2502 -0.737   18 -0.682   18 -0.734   10 -0.394    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 13.626   22 -0.767    5 -0.021
Laurier                 16 17 2289 2300 -0.787   22 -0.788   22 -0.835   20 -0.859    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.229   24 -0.955   17 -0.764
Toronto                 17 17 2310 2320 -1.001   24 -0.944   24 -0.978   23 -0.971    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.497   26 -1.100   19 -0.843
Guelph                  16 19 2296 2305 -1.015   26 -1.096   26 -1.117   24 -0.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.112   34 -1.462   12 -0.491
Lakehead                14 21 2373 2460 -0.888   27 -1.103   27 -1.123   27 -1.050    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.071   30 -1.233   21 -0.867
Queen's ON              15 19 2047 2137 -1.115   29 -1.178   29 -1.186   34 -1.275    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 11.602   40 -2.284    7 -0.267
Windsor                 10 22 2148 2354 -0.910   32 -1.297   32 -1.326   35 -1.305    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.018   31 -1.303   35 -1.307
Laurentian              13 20 2204 2364 -1.175   33 -1.307   33 -1.337   37 -1.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 10.825   33 -1.418   37 -1.340
Western ON               6 22 1696 1913 -1.032   39 -1.650   39 -1.690   38 -1.447    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  9.695   38 -2.084   18 -0.810
RMC                      4 25 1630 1962 -1.307   40 -1.996   40 -2.131   40 -1.875    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  8.505   41 -2.747   25 -1.003
Ryerson                  2 29 1884 2396 -1.234   41 -2.254   41 -2.343   41 -1.991    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  7.908   39 -2.115   41 -1.867

CIS-Quebec: strength=-0.657 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Concordia QC            26  5 2447 2098 -0.543    2  0.426    2  0.256    3  0.141    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 17.822    2  0.287    4 -0.006
Laval                   24  8 2443 2200 -0.589    6  0.089    6 -0.028    5 -0.143    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.609    6 -0.060    6 -0.227
UQAM                    14 12 2002 1973 -0.758   17 -0.644   17 -0.689   15 -0.709    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 13.636   11 -0.168   32 -1.249
Bishop's                 6 19 1623 1852 -0.746   34 -1.329   34 -1.361   36 -1.349    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 10.793   36 -1.643   28 -1.055
McGill                   8 20 1921 2081 -0.975   36 -1.415   36 -1.463   30 -1.217    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 10.402   27 -1.178   33 -1.255

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Canada West             203 188 0.519    1 -0.556
CIS-Quebec               78  64 0.549    2 -0.657
CIS-Ontario             267 273 0.494    3 -0.990
CIS-Atlantic            129 141 0.478    4 -1.030

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:22:59 2019

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