Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             24  2 2245 1600 -0.290    1  0.733    1  0.454    1  0.658    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 18.830    1  0.515    1  0.800
Victoria                24  3 2351 1925 -0.543    2  0.612    3  0.347    4  0.177    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 18.109    2  0.462    5 -0.108
Alberta                 25  2 2356 1829 -0.651    3  0.604    2  0.349    3  0.216    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 18.160    5  0.363    4  0.069
Dalhousie               24  5 2462 2066 -0.349    4  0.500    4  0.267    2  0.255    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 17.552    3  0.432    3  0.077
Brock                   22  3 2251 1790 -0.632    5  0.409    5  0.161    5  0.064    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 17.426    4  0.388    6 -0.260
Ottawa ON               19  4 1756 1431 -0.636    6  0.169    7 -0.053    6 -0.170    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.701   25 -0.760    2  0.419
Queen's ON              17  7 1922 1845 -0.534    7  0.105    6 -0.049   14 -0.560    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 16.439   16 -0.029   19 -1.092
McGill                  15  5 1387 1350 -0.798    8 -0.012    8 -0.151   19 -0.741    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.944   37 -1.166    8 -0.316
UBC                     19  5 2078 1764 -0.810    9 -0.056    9 -0.202    7 -0.273    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 16.053   13  0.038    9 -0.584
Saskatchewan            21  8 2433 2233 -0.733   10 -0.144   10 -0.255    8 -0.317    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 15.728    8  0.222   13 -0.857
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Francis Xavier       18  9 2314 2143 -0.606   11 -0.213   11 -0.322   10 -0.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.381    7  0.299   27 -1.286
Lakehead                16  6 1870 1795 -0.908   12 -0.228   12 -0.341   18 -0.692    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.302   14  0.010   32 -1.395
Memorial                11 10 1758 1767 -0.287   13 -0.233   13 -0.346    9 -0.412    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.273    6  0.354   21 -1.178
Laurier                 16  7 1982 1790 -0.873   14 -0.388   14 -0.496   12 -0.523    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.689   17 -0.102   15 -0.944
St Mary's NS            13 10 1930 1881 -0.604   15 -0.429   15 -0.544   17 -0.691    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 14.315   10  0.081   34 -1.464
Regina                  17  9 2113 1982 -0.912   16 -0.439   16 -0.556   15 -0.596    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 14.417   20 -0.276   14 -0.915
UCCB                     9 10 1459 1499 -0.396   17 -0.445   17 -0.562   20 -0.764    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.128   22 -0.571   16 -0.957
McMaster                16  8 2103 1932 -0.850   18 -0.454   18 -0.572   11 -0.511    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.421    9  0.180   23 -1.203
UPEI                    10 12 1751 1768 -0.438   19 -0.506   19 -0.628   13 -0.541    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.886   19 -0.255   12 -0.827
Ryerson                 12 10 1860 1772 -0.945   20 -0.764   21 -0.905   16 -0.673    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.022   11  0.072   33 -1.419
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UNB                      9 14 1692 1794 -0.651   21 -0.764   20 -0.905   24 -0.860    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.756   32 -1.041   10 -0.678
Winnipeg                12 10 1665 1706 -1.128   22 -0.771   22 -0.913   31 -1.159    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.791   34 -1.054   26 -1.265
Western ON              11  9 1746 1670 -1.066   23 -0.795   23 -0.939   27 -1.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 12.828   18 -0.198   40 -1.911
Guelph                   8  9 1490 1517 -0.948   24 -0.814   24 -0.961   28 -1.056    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.708   15 -0.012   44 -2.099
Lethbridge U.           11 10 1662 1570 -1.003   25 -0.860   25 -0.994   23 -0.860    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.734   26 -0.761   17 -0.958
Calgary                 11 10 1705 1645 -1.053   26 -0.878   26 -1.016   25 -0.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.660   23 -0.609   30 -1.379
Windsor                  9 11 1617 1692 -1.011   27 -0.894   27 -1.035   34 -1.224    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.278   24 -0.695   38 -1.752
Mount Royal             12 13 2041 2033 -1.035   28 -0.926   28 -1.071   26 -1.007    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 12.276   21 -0.372   37 -1.642
Laurentian               9 12 1540 1649 -0.996   29 -0.932   29 -1.077   30 -1.157    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 12.154   35 -1.079   24 -1.235
Fraser Valley           10 13 1840 1945 -1.148   30 -1.063   30 -1.226   39 -1.362    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.690   28 -0.841   39 -1.883
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Toronto                  8 13 1572 1594 -0.902   31 -1.076   31 -1.242   22 -0.841    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.792   29 -0.906   11 -0.777
Laval                    5 12 1196 1296 -0.898   32 -1.100   32 -1.271   32 -1.161    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 11.500   30 -0.929   31 -1.393
Concordia QC             7 12 1294 1292 -0.934   33 -1.144   33 -1.317   21 -0.796    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.589   41 -1.321    7 -0.271
Nipissing                7 14 1462 1693 -1.129   34 -1.152   34 -1.326   40 -1.390    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 11.142   44 -1.451   29 -1.330
Trinity Western         11 14 2189 2283 -1.289   35 -1.159   35 -1.334   36 -1.263    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 11.276   12  0.054   46 -2.579
Bishop's                 5 12 1154 1285 -0.966   36 -1.177   36 -1.354   38 -1.299    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 11.212   40 -1.308   28 -1.289
Manitoba                 9 14 1674 1726 -1.166   37 -1.190   37 -1.370   37 -1.282    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 11.239   45 -1.535   18 -1.028
UQAM                     4 12 1079 1218 -1.002   38 -1.271   38 -1.462   41 -1.454    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.861   43 -1.432   36 -1.477
Waterloo                 8 13 1577 1635 -1.307   39 -1.290   39 -1.486   35 -1.238    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.863   42 -1.343   20 -1.132
York ON                  5 15 1474 1651 -1.037   40 -1.314   40 -1.516   29 -1.149    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.767   27 -0.831   35 -1.467
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Brandon                  5 18 1745 1965 -1.161   41 -1.558   41 -1.730   43 -1.549    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 10.046   31 -0.961   45 -2.137
Acadia                   2 20 1563 1820 -0.705   42 -1.576   42 -1.753   33 -1.216    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.890   38 -1.240   22 -1.192
Ontario Tech             3 18 1526 1945 -1.130   43 -1.586   43 -1.767   47 -2.094    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  9.619   39 -1.275   48 -2.912
UBC-Okanagan             6 19 1909 2127 -1.291   44 -1.621   44 -1.813   44 -1.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.755   36 -1.134   43 -2.061
UNBC                     6 17 1796 1983 -1.395   45 -1.659   45 -1.845   42 -1.543    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  9.610   33 -1.048   42 -2.038
Thompson Rivers          5 18 1587 1798 -1.371   46 -1.715   46 -1.912   45 -1.686    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  9.307   46 -2.120   25 -1.251
MacEwan                  1 22 1509 2102 -1.370   47 -2.085   47 -2.302   48 -2.528    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  8.043   48 -2.401   47 -2.654
Algoma                   0 21 1392 1839 -1.265   48 -2.274   48 -2.408   46 -2.069    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  7.933   47 -2.137   41 -2.000


Atl U Sport: strength=-0.497 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Dalhousie               24  5 2462 2066 -0.349    4  0.500    4  0.267    2  0.255    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 17.552    3  0.432    3  0.077
St Francis Xavier       18  9 2314 2143 -0.606   11 -0.213   11 -0.322   10 -0.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.381    7  0.299   27 -1.286
Memorial                11 10 1758 1767 -0.287   13 -0.233   13 -0.346    9 -0.412    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.273    6  0.354   21 -1.178
St Mary's NS            13 10 1930 1881 -0.604   15 -0.429   15 -0.544   17 -0.691    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 14.315   10  0.081   34 -1.464
UCCB                     9 10 1459 1499 -0.396   17 -0.445   17 -0.562   20 -0.764    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.128   22 -0.571   16 -0.957
UPEI                    10 12 1751 1768 -0.438   19 -0.506   19 -0.628   13 -0.541    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.886   19 -0.255   12 -0.827
UNB                      9 14 1692 1794 -0.651   21 -0.764   20 -0.905   24 -0.860    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.756   32 -1.041   10 -0.678
Acadia                   2 20 1563 1820 -0.705   42 -1.576   42 -1.753   33 -1.216    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.890   38 -1.240   22 -1.192

Can W: strength=-1.102 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Victoria                24  3 2351 1925 -0.543    2  0.612    3  0.347    4  0.177    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 18.109    2  0.462    5 -0.108
Alberta                 25  2 2356 1829 -0.651    3  0.604    2  0.349    3  0.216    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 18.160    5  0.363    4  0.069
UBC                     19  5 2078 1764 -0.810    9 -0.056    9 -0.202    7 -0.273    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 16.053   13  0.038    9 -0.584
Saskatchewan            21  8 2433 2233 -0.733   10 -0.144   10 -0.255    8 -0.317    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 15.728    8  0.222   13 -0.857
Regina                  17  9 2113 1982 -0.912   16 -0.439   16 -0.556   15 -0.596    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 14.417   20 -0.276   14 -0.915
Winnipeg                12 10 1665 1706 -1.128   22 -0.771   22 -0.913   31 -1.159    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.791   34 -1.054   26 -1.265
Lethbridge U.           11 10 1662 1570 -1.003   25 -0.860   25 -0.994   23 -0.860    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.734   26 -0.761   17 -0.958
Calgary                 11 10 1705 1645 -1.053   26 -0.878   26 -1.016   25 -0.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.660   23 -0.609   30 -1.379
Mount Royal             12 13 2041 2033 -1.035   28 -0.926   28 -1.071   26 -1.007    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 12.276   21 -0.372   37 -1.642
Fraser Valley           10 13 1840 1945 -1.148   30 -1.063   30 -1.226   39 -1.362    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.690   28 -0.841   39 -1.883
Trinity Western         11 14 2189 2283 -1.289   35 -1.159   35 -1.334   36 -1.263    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 11.276   12  0.054   46 -2.579
Manitoba                 9 14 1674 1726 -1.166   37 -1.190   37 -1.370   37 -1.282    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 11.239   45 -1.535   18 -1.028
Brandon                  5 18 1745 1965 -1.161   41 -1.558   41 -1.730   43 -1.549    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 10.046   31 -0.961   45 -2.137
UBC-Okanagan             6 19 1909 2127 -1.291   44 -1.621   44 -1.813   44 -1.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.755   36 -1.134   43 -2.061
UNBC                     6 17 1796 1983 -1.395   45 -1.659   45 -1.845   42 -1.543    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  9.610   33 -1.048   42 -2.038
Thompson Rivers          5 18 1587 1798 -1.371   46 -1.715   46 -1.912   45 -1.686    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  9.307   46 -2.120   25 -1.251
MacEwan                  1 22 1509 2102 -1.370   47 -2.085   47 -2.302   48 -2.528    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  8.043   48 -2.401   47 -2.654

Ont Univ Athl: strength=-0.895 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             24  2 2245 1600 -0.290    1  0.733    1  0.454    1  0.658    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 18.830    1  0.515    1  0.800
Brock                   22  3 2251 1790 -0.632    5  0.409    5  0.161    5  0.064    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 17.426    4  0.388    6 -0.260
Ottawa ON               19  4 1756 1431 -0.636    6  0.169    7 -0.053    6 -0.170    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.701   25 -0.760    2  0.419
Queen's ON              17  7 1922 1845 -0.534    7  0.105    6 -0.049   14 -0.560    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 16.439   16 -0.029   19 -1.092
Lakehead                16  6 1870 1795 -0.908   12 -0.228   12 -0.341   18 -0.692    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.302   14  0.010   32 -1.395
Laurier                 16  7 1982 1790 -0.873   14 -0.388   14 -0.496   12 -0.523    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.689   17 -0.102   15 -0.944
McMaster                16  8 2103 1932 -0.850   18 -0.454   18 -0.572   11 -0.511    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.421    9  0.180   23 -1.203
Ryerson                 12 10 1860 1772 -0.945   20 -0.764   21 -0.905   16 -0.673    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.022   11  0.072   33 -1.419
Western ON              11  9 1746 1670 -1.066   23 -0.795   23 -0.939   27 -1.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 12.828   18 -0.198   40 -1.911
Guelph                   8  9 1490 1517 -0.948   24 -0.814   24 -0.961   28 -1.056    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.708   15 -0.012   44 -2.099
Windsor                  9 11 1617 1692 -1.011   27 -0.894   27 -1.035   34 -1.224    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.278   24 -0.695   38 -1.752
Laurentian               9 12 1540 1649 -0.996   29 -0.932   29 -1.077   30 -1.157    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 12.154   35 -1.079   24 -1.235
Toronto                  8 13 1572 1594 -0.902   31 -1.076   31 -1.242   22 -0.841    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.792   29 -0.906   11 -0.777
Nipissing                7 14 1462 1693 -1.129   34 -1.152   34 -1.326   40 -1.390    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 11.142   44 -1.451   29 -1.330
Waterloo                 8 13 1577 1635 -1.307   39 -1.290   39 -1.486   35 -1.238    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.863   42 -1.343   20 -1.132
York ON                  5 15 1474 1651 -1.037   40 -1.314   40 -1.516   29 -1.149    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.767   27 -0.831   35 -1.467
Ontario Tech             3 18 1526 1945 -1.130   43 -1.586   43 -1.767   47 -2.094    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  9.619   39 -1.275   48 -2.912
Algoma                   0 21 1392 1839 -1.265   48 -2.274   48 -2.408   46 -2.069    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  7.933   47 -2.137   41 -2.000

RSEQ: strength=-1.161 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
McGill                  15  5 1387 1350 -0.798    8 -0.012    8 -0.151   19 -0.741    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.944   37 -1.166    8 -0.316
Laval                    5 12 1196 1296 -0.898   32 -1.100   32 -1.271   32 -1.161    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 11.500   30 -0.929   31 -1.393
Concordia QC             7 12 1294 1292 -0.934   33 -1.144   33 -1.317   21 -0.796    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.589   41 -1.321    7 -0.271
Bishop's                 5 12 1154 1285 -0.966   36 -1.177   36 -1.354   38 -1.299    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 11.212   40 -1.308   28 -1.289
UQAM                     4 12 1079 1218 -1.002   38 -1.271   38 -1.462   41 -1.454    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.861   43 -1.432   36 -1.477

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Atl U Sport      96  90 0.516    1 -0.497
Ont Univ Athl   210 182 0.536    2 -0.895
Can W           205 205 0.500    3 -1.102
RSEQ             36  53 0.404    4 -1.161

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.218 points in main ratings
     0.028 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Sun Oct 12 21:56:15 2025

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