Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             34  1 3222 2076  0.162    1  1.805    1  1.471    1  1.915    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 22.457    1  1.639    1  2.192
Calgary                 32  4 3117 2484 -0.096    2  1.233    2  0.985    3  0.829    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 20.433    3  0.774    3  0.883
Ryerson                 31  5 3123 2329  0.039    3  0.996    3  0.768    2  1.035    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 19.942    2  0.851    2  1.219
UBC                     29  8 3294 2772 -0.619    4  0.273    5  0.074    4  0.091    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 17.093    5  0.570    8 -0.388
St Mary's NS            30  6 3036 2633 -0.895    5  0.261    4  0.076    8 -0.229    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 16.915    7 -0.002   10 -0.457
Alberta                 23 10 2724 2426 -0.468    6  0.098    6 -0.059    5 -0.075    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.614   12 -0.193    5  0.043
Dalhousie               29 10 2987 2673 -0.844    7 -0.105    7 -0.233    9 -0.309    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 15.658   23 -0.849    4  0.231
Ottawa ON               20 11 2510 2285 -0.526    8 -0.135    8 -0.270    6 -0.171    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 15.680   10 -0.092    7 -0.250
Western ON              23  9 2645 2403 -0.979    9 -0.299    9 -0.397   14 -0.604    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 14.893   16 -0.524   12 -0.684
Queen's ON              18 13 2363 2262 -0.652   10 -0.425   10 -0.539   10 -0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 14.242   19 -0.607    6 -0.174
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Laurier                 21 12 2765 2581 -0.843   11 -0.426   11 -0.543   11 -0.509    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 14.218   11 -0.101   14 -0.916
Saskatchewan            18 15 2851 2790 -0.654   12 -0.468   12 -0.557   15 -0.706    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 14.125    8 -0.006   26 -1.405
Regina                  22 11 2817 2678 -1.097   13 -0.503   13 -0.594   23 -0.986    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 13.838   14 -0.468   31 -1.504
Brock                   19 14 2774 2653 -0.746   14 -0.536   14 -0.627   12 -0.575    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 13.929    9 -0.024   20 -1.127
Concordia QC            18 14 2361 2394 -0.802   15 -0.553   15 -0.644   19 -0.847    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 13.742   30 -1.019   11 -0.675
Lethbridge U.           19 15 3116 2785 -0.588   16 -0.582   16 -0.673    7 -0.193    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 13.892    4  0.680   19 -1.067
McGill                  14 10 1744 1737 -0.916   17 -0.608   17 -0.700   17 -0.822    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 13.546   37 -1.245    9 -0.399
UQAM                    15 12 2091 2090 -0.913   18 -0.621   18 -0.714   21 -0.891    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.486   21 -0.641   21 -1.141
Fraser Valley           16 10 2046 1983 -1.108   19 -0.632   19 -0.728   22 -0.899    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.357   28 -0.994   13 -0.804
UNB                     17 10 2197 2059 -1.028   20 -0.638   20 -0.734   16 -0.734    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 13.537   17 -0.542   15 -0.926
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Laurentian              14 14 2311 2340 -0.757   21 -0.648   21 -0.744   13 -0.583    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.455    6  0.140   23 -1.306
Manitoba                13 14 2057 2151 -0.857   22 -0.763   22 -0.870   25 -1.051    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.885   35 -1.161   16 -0.940
Victoria                15 15 2311 2357 -0.983   23 -0.849   23 -0.952   26 -1.056    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.623   32 -1.094   17 -1.017
Bishop's                11 15 1957 2113 -0.836   24 -0.890   24 -1.001   28 -1.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.469   24 -0.858   25 -1.401
Winnipeg                15 15 2588 2523 -1.012   25 -0.911   25 -1.026   20 -0.875    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.514   13 -0.222   32 -1.528
McMaster                16 18 2789 2835 -1.045   26 -0.981   26 -1.107   24 -1.005    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.244   15 -0.509   30 -1.502
UNBC                    13 15 2241 2265 -1.075   27 -1.005   27 -1.122   27 -1.123    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.159   26 -0.880   24 -1.365
Guelph                  17 20 2952 3086 -1.099   28 -1.074   28 -1.177   32 -1.263    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 11.910   22 -0.818   36 -1.707
Lakehead                12 19 2444 2519 -0.909   29 -1.121   29 -1.230   18 -0.843    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 11.829   20 -0.632   18 -1.054
Laval                   11 16 2045 2056 -1.029   30 -1.165   30 -1.267   30 -1.154    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.704   34 -1.159   22 -1.149
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
York ON                 11 21 2397 2685 -0.990   31 -1.244   31 -1.342   33 -1.291    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.285   31 -1.022   34 -1.561
Toronto                  9 19 2090 2318 -0.901   32 -1.256   32 -1.355   34 -1.330    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.307   33 -1.130   33 -1.530
Thompson Rivers          9 17 1991 2124 -1.013   33 -1.306   33 -1.384   31 -1.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 11.164   29 -1.006   29 -1.486
UCCB                    12 18 2371 2412 -1.108   34 -1.316   34 -1.394   29 -1.143    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 11.193   25 -0.862   28 -1.424
St Francis Xavier       11 22 2587 2909 -1.065   35 -1.360   35 -1.431   39 -1.641    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 10.810   27 -0.950   43 -2.332
Algoma                   8 19 2020 2295 -0.990   36 -1.390   36 -1.466   36 -1.581    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 10.727   39 -1.360   37 -1.802
Mount Royal             10 16 2075 2305 -1.382   37 -1.452   37 -1.495   41 -1.728    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 10.430   36 -1.166   42 -2.289
Windsor                  9 20 2064 2425 -1.218   38 -1.499   38 -1.555   43 -1.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.183   43 -2.006   38 -1.818
Acadia                   9 19 2127 2291 -1.213   39 -1.579   40 -1.644   35 -1.445    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.129   38 -1.253   35 -1.638
Memorial                10 21 2354 2592 -1.225   40 -1.599   39 -1.637   40 -1.673    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.052   40 -1.408   39 -1.938
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Brandon                  7 21 2344 2592 -1.145   41 -1.725   41 -1.810   37 -1.589    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  9.634   18 -0.607   44 -2.571
UPEI                     7 25 2248 2711 -1.289   42 -1.844   42 -1.930   44 -2.144    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.125   46 -2.217   40 -2.071
Nipissing                6 22 1992 2260 -1.173   43 -1.897   43 -1.995   38 -1.598    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.187   42 -1.789   27 -1.407
Waterloo                 4 27 2275 2689 -1.121   44 -2.045   44 -2.163   42 -1.908    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  8.646   41 -1.635   41 -2.180
UBC-Okanagan            12 19 2246 2628 -2.170   45 -2.060   45 -2.182   46 -2.687    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  8.299   47 -2.774   45 -2.600
MacEwan                  3 25 2018 2522 -1.479   46 -2.428   46 -2.565   45 -2.383    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  7.189   45 -2.153   46 -2.613
Trinity Western          1 26 1963 2629 -1.654   47 -2.829   47 -3.043   47 -2.725    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  6.004   44 -2.062   47 -3.388


Atl U Sport: strength=-1.204 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Mary's NS            30  6 3036 2633 -0.895    5  0.261    4  0.076    8 -0.229    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 16.915    7 -0.002   10 -0.457
Dalhousie               29 10 2987 2673 -0.844    7 -0.105    7 -0.233    9 -0.309    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 15.658   23 -0.849    4  0.231
UNB                     17 10 2197 2059 -1.028   20 -0.638   20 -0.734   16 -0.734    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 13.537   17 -0.542   15 -0.926
UCCB                    12 18 2371 2412 -1.108   34 -1.316   34 -1.394   29 -1.143    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 11.193   25 -0.862   28 -1.424
St Francis Xavier       11 22 2587 2909 -1.065   35 -1.360   35 -1.431   39 -1.641    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 10.810   27 -0.950   43 -2.332
Acadia                   9 19 2127 2291 -1.213   39 -1.579   40 -1.644   35 -1.445    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.129   38 -1.253   35 -1.638
Memorial                10 21 2354 2592 -1.225   40 -1.599   39 -1.637   40 -1.673    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.052   40 -1.408   39 -1.938
UPEI                     7 25 2248 2711 -1.289   42 -1.844   42 -1.930   44 -2.144    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.125   46 -2.217   40 -2.071

Can W: strength=-1.076 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Calgary                 32  4 3117 2484 -0.096    2  1.233    2  0.985    3  0.829    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 20.433    3  0.774    3  0.883
UBC                     29  8 3294 2772 -0.619    4  0.273    5  0.074    4  0.091    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 17.093    5  0.570    8 -0.388
Alberta                 23 10 2724 2426 -0.468    6  0.098    6 -0.059    5 -0.075    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.614   12 -0.193    5  0.043
Saskatchewan            18 15 2851 2790 -0.654   12 -0.468   12 -0.557   15 -0.706    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 14.125    8 -0.006   26 -1.405
Regina                  22 11 2817 2678 -1.097   13 -0.503   13 -0.594   23 -0.986    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 13.838   14 -0.468   31 -1.504
Lethbridge U.           19 15 3116 2785 -0.588   16 -0.582   16 -0.673    7 -0.193    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 13.892    4  0.680   19 -1.067
Fraser Valley           16 10 2046 1983 -1.108   19 -0.632   19 -0.728   22 -0.899    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.357   28 -0.994   13 -0.804
Manitoba                13 14 2057 2151 -0.857   22 -0.763   22 -0.870   25 -1.051    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.885   35 -1.161   16 -0.940
Victoria                15 15 2311 2357 -0.983   23 -0.849   23 -0.952   26 -1.056    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.623   32 -1.094   17 -1.017
Winnipeg                15 15 2588 2523 -1.012   25 -0.911   25 -1.026   20 -0.875    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.514   13 -0.222   32 -1.528
UNBC                    13 15 2241 2265 -1.075   27 -1.005   27 -1.122   27 -1.123    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.159   26 -0.880   24 -1.365
Thompson Rivers          9 17 1991 2124 -1.013   33 -1.306   33 -1.384   31 -1.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 11.164   29 -1.006   29 -1.486
Mount Royal             10 16 2075 2305 -1.382   37 -1.452   37 -1.495   41 -1.728    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 10.430   36 -1.166   42 -2.289
Brandon                  7 21 2344 2592 -1.145   41 -1.725   41 -1.810   37 -1.589    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  9.634   18 -0.607   44 -2.571
UBC-Okanagan            12 19 2246 2628 -2.170   45 -2.060   45 -2.182   46 -2.687    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  8.299   47 -2.774   45 -2.600
MacEwan                  3 25 2018 2522 -1.479   46 -2.428   46 -2.565   45 -2.383    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  7.189   45 -2.153   46 -2.613
Trinity Western          1 26 1963 2629 -1.654   47 -2.829   47 -3.043   47 -2.725    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  6.004   44 -2.062   47 -3.388

Ont Univ Athl: strength=-0.866 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             34  1 3222 2076  0.162    1  1.805    1  1.471    1  1.915    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 22.457    1  1.639    1  2.192
Ryerson                 31  5 3123 2329  0.039    3  0.996    3  0.768    2  1.035    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 19.942    2  0.851    2  1.219
Ottawa ON               20 11 2510 2285 -0.526    8 -0.135    8 -0.270    6 -0.171    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 15.680   10 -0.092    7 -0.250
Western ON              23  9 2645 2403 -0.979    9 -0.299    9 -0.397   14 -0.604    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 14.893   16 -0.524   12 -0.684
Queen's ON              18 13 2363 2262 -0.652   10 -0.425   10 -0.539   10 -0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 14.242   19 -0.607    6 -0.174
Laurier                 21 12 2765 2581 -0.843   11 -0.426   11 -0.543   11 -0.509    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 14.218   11 -0.101   14 -0.916
Brock                   19 14 2774 2653 -0.746   14 -0.536   14 -0.627   12 -0.575    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 13.929    9 -0.024   20 -1.127
Laurentian              14 14 2311 2340 -0.757   21 -0.648   21 -0.744   13 -0.583    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.455    6  0.140   23 -1.306
McMaster                16 18 2789 2835 -1.045   26 -0.981   26 -1.107   24 -1.005    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.244   15 -0.509   30 -1.502
Guelph                  17 20 2952 3086 -1.099   28 -1.074   28 -1.177   32 -1.263    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 11.910   22 -0.818   36 -1.707
Lakehead                12 19 2444 2519 -0.909   29 -1.121   29 -1.230   18 -0.843    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 11.829   20 -0.632   18 -1.054
York ON                 11 21 2397 2685 -0.990   31 -1.244   31 -1.342   33 -1.291    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.285   31 -1.022   34 -1.561
Toronto                  9 19 2090 2318 -0.901   32 -1.256   32 -1.355   34 -1.330    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.307   33 -1.130   33 -1.530
Algoma                   8 19 2020 2295 -0.990   36 -1.390   36 -1.466   36 -1.581    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 10.727   39 -1.360   37 -1.802
Windsor                  9 20 2064 2425 -1.218   38 -1.499   38 -1.555   43 -1.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.183   43 -2.006   38 -1.818
Nipissing                6 22 1992 2260 -1.173   43 -1.897   43 -1.995   38 -1.598    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.187   42 -1.789   27 -1.407
Waterloo                 4 27 2275 2689 -1.121   44 -2.045   44 -2.163   42 -1.908    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  8.646   41 -1.635   41 -2.180

RSEQ: strength=-0.951 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Concordia QC            18 14 2361 2394 -0.802   15 -0.553   15 -0.644   19 -0.847    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 13.742   30 -1.019   11 -0.675
McGill                  14 10 1744 1737 -0.916   17 -0.608   17 -0.700   17 -0.822    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 13.546   37 -1.245    9 -0.399
UQAM                    15 12 2091 2090 -0.913   18 -0.621   18 -0.714   21 -0.891    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.486   21 -0.641   21 -1.141
Bishop's                11 15 1957 2113 -0.836   24 -0.890   24 -1.001   28 -1.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.469   24 -0.858   25 -1.401
Laval                   11 16 2045 2056 -1.029   30 -1.165   30 -1.267   30 -1.154    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.704   34 -1.159   22 -1.149

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ont Univ Athl   272 264 0.507    1 -0.866
RSEQ             69  67 0.507    2 -0.951
Can W           257 256 0.501    3 -1.076
Atl U Sport     125 131 0.488    4 -1.204

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.254 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Sun Oct 12 21:54:58 2025

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