Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Grace Bible             13 11 1897 1971 -1.102    1 -0.901    1 -0.965    2 -1.258    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 12.458    4 -0.805    5 -1.710
Randall                 11 17 2217 2290 -0.697    2 -1.236    2 -1.253    1 -0.892    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.558    2 -0.621    1 -1.162
Manhattan Christian     17 14 2768 2688 -1.684    3 -1.540    3 -1.549    5 -1.735    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 10.137    3 -0.716   13 -2.754
Bob Jones U.            13 17 2430 2473 -1.326    4 -1.598    4 -1.619    3 -1.293    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.091    5 -0.897    4 -1.690
Pensacola Christian      8 12 1510 1584 -1.334    5 -1.649    5 -1.682    4 -1.620    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.838    8 -1.583    3 -1.657
Trinity Baptist          8 12 1349 1518 -1.504    6 -1.728    6 -1.780    6 -1.846    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  9.400   16 -2.365    2 -1.326
Piedmont Int'l           6  8 1130 1184 -1.700    7 -1.897    7 -1.949    7 -1.904    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  8.815    6 -1.442    8 -2.365
Trinity FL               6 11 1272 1358 -1.568    8 -1.968    8 -2.050    8 -1.982    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  8.571   13 -2.084    6 -1.880
Toccoa Falls             9 18 2231 2381 -1.705    9 -2.139    9 -2.257    9 -1.995    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  8.104    7 -1.461   11 -2.529
Johnson TN               4 12 1522 1631 -1.536   10 -2.202   10 -2.309   11 -2.191    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  7.840    1 -0.082   26 -4.299
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Arlington Baptist        7 19 1959 2278 -1.515   11 -2.205   12 -2.316   10 -2.030    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  7.828   10 -1.722    7 -2.339
West Coast Baptist       2 18 1419 1918 -0.926   12 -2.205   11 -2.313   13 -2.291    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  7.724    9 -1.663   14 -2.919
Trinity Bible            8 12 1589 1723 -2.517   13 -2.501   13 -2.744   16 -2.720    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  6.566   14 -2.206   20 -3.233
Welch                    4  9  981 1059 -2.270   14 -2.531   14 -2.776   18 -2.812    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  6.558   19 -2.680   15 -2.945
Boyce                    4 13 1185 1498 -2.168   15 -2.555   15 -2.815   20 -3.036    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  6.290   21 -2.880   18 -3.193
Dallas Christian         2 28 2163 2866 -1.050   16 -2.623   16 -2.867   12 -2.244    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  6.494   11 -1.743   12 -2.745
Barclay                  5 16 1660 1897 -1.869   17 -2.643   17 -2.883   14 -2.478    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  6.410   12 -1.847   17 -3.109
Moody Bible              4 19 1564 1886 -1.945   18 -2.774   18 -3.089   17 -2.776    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  5.914   22 -3.030    9 -2.522
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO     8 16 1600 1982 -2.991   19 -2.896   19 -3.311   23 -3.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.385   26 -3.982   16 -3.023
Ozark Christian          9 19 2216 2602 -3.004   20 -2.915   20 -3.342   22 -3.292    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.324   17 -2.550   24 -4.035
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Faith Baptist Bible     10 11 1599 1721 -3.422   21 -2.918   21 -3.348   25 -3.709    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  5.228   25 -3.609   22 -3.809
Kansas Christian         6 21 1894 2507 -2.766   22 -2.987   22 -3.432   24 -3.642    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.873   23 -3.443   23 -3.841
Portland Bible           0 16  981 1547 -0.904   23 -2.997   23 -3.454   21 -3.038    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  5.229   20 -2.868   19 -3.207
Simmons KY               0  7  453  616 -1.355   24 -3.015   24 -3.537   15 -2.598    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.324   18 -2.672   10 -2.523
Johnson FL               0 14 1056 1368 -1.572   25 -3.170   25 -3.825   19 -2.984    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  4.452   15 -2.275   21 -3.692
Great Lakes Christian    0 22 1357 2265 -1.836   26 -3.298   26 -4.086   26 -4.069    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  3.597   24 -3.604   28 -4.535
Oak Hills Christian      0 20 1183 2010 -2.719   27 -3.637   27 -4.738   27 -4.719    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  2.652   27 -4.864   29 -4.573
Baptist Bible MO         0 19  801 1761 -3.079   28 -3.732   28 -5.059   29 -5.928    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  1.938   30 -7.542   27 -4.315
King's NY                3 11  785 1059 -4.690   29 -3.741   29 -5.103   28 -5.216    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  2.093   28 -6.235   25 -4.197
Appalachian Bible        1  5  318  491 -5.658   30 -3.973   30 -5.413   30 -5.956    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  1.641   29 -6.419   30 -5.493


Midwest Chr: strength=-3.293 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Manhattan Christian     17 14 2768 2688 -1.684    3 -1.540    3 -1.549    5 -1.735    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 10.137    3 -0.716   13 -2.754
Barclay                  5 16 1660 1897 -1.869   17 -2.643   17 -2.883   14 -2.478    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  6.410   12 -1.847   17 -3.109
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO     8 16 1600 1982 -2.991   19 -2.896   19 -3.311   23 -3.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.385   26 -3.982   16 -3.023
Ozark Christian          9 19 2216 2602 -3.004   20 -2.915   20 -3.342   22 -3.292    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.324   17 -2.550   24 -4.035
Faith Baptist Bible     10 11 1599 1721 -3.422   21 -2.918   21 -3.348   25 -3.709    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  5.228   25 -3.609   22 -3.809
Emmaus Bible             6 15 1461 1721 -2.892      -2.984      -3.453      -3.584      0.0000      0.0000       4.934      -3.507      -3.661
Calvary                  3 11 1017 1198 -3.679      -3.421      -4.376      -4.030      0.0000      0.0000       3.209      -4.010      -4.050

NCCAA-II Mid-E: strength=-2.618 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Grace Bible             13 11 1897 1971 -1.102    1 -0.901    1 -0.965    2 -1.258    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 12.458    4 -0.805    5 -1.710
Valley Forge            19 10 2317 2228 -1.474      -0.971      -1.033      -1.184      0.0000      0.0000      12.388      -1.222      -1.146
Kentucky Christian      17 16 2539 2757 -1.565      -1.295      -1.271      -1.694      0.0000      0.0000      11.027      -1.476      -1.912
Johnson TN               4 12 1522 1631 -1.536   10 -2.202   10 -2.309   11 -2.191    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  7.840    1 -0.082   26 -4.299
Welch                    4  9  981 1059 -2.270   14 -2.531   14 -2.776   18 -2.812    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  6.558   19 -2.680   15 -2.945
Boyce                    4 13 1185 1498 -2.168   15 -2.555   15 -2.815   20 -3.036    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  6.290   21 -2.880   18 -3.193
Summit                   1 25 1637 2264 -1.691      -2.697      -2.971      -2.911      0.0000      0.0000       5.979      -3.171      -2.651
Simmons KY               0  7  453  616 -1.355   24 -3.015   24 -3.537   15 -2.598    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.324   18 -2.672   10 -2.523
Great Lakes Christian    0 22 1357 2265 -1.836   26 -3.298   26 -4.086   26 -4.069    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  3.597   24 -3.604   28 -4.535
Appalachian Bible        1  5  318  491 -5.658   30 -3.973   30 -5.413   30 -5.956    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  1.641   29 -6.419   30 -5.493

NCCAA-II Other: strength=-2.457 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
North Central MN         8 16 1791 1881 -1.697      -1.974      -2.060      -1.952      0.0000      0.0000       8.525      -2.030      -1.874
Maranatha Baptist        9 17 1887 1948 -2.541      -2.598      -2.856      -2.401      0.0000      0.0000       6.414      -2.645      -2.156
Moody Bible              4 19 1564 1886 -1.945   18 -2.774   18 -3.089   17 -2.776    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  5.914   22 -3.030    9 -2.522

NCCAA-II SW: strength=-2.610 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Randall                 11 17 2217 2290 -0.697    2 -1.236    2 -1.253    1 -0.892    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.558    2 -0.621    1 -1.162
Arlington Baptist        7 19 1959 2278 -1.515   11 -2.205   12 -2.316   10 -2.030    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  7.828   10 -1.722    7 -2.339
West Coast Baptist       2 18 1419 1918 -0.926   12 -2.205   11 -2.313   13 -2.291    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  7.724    9 -1.663   14 -2.919
Dallas Christian         2 28 2163 2866 -1.050   16 -2.623   16 -2.867   12 -2.244    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  6.494   11 -1.743   12 -2.745
Kansas Christian         6 21 1894 2507 -2.766   22 -2.987   22 -3.432   24 -3.642    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.873   23 -3.443   23 -3.841
Portland Bible           0 16  981 1547 -0.904   23 -2.997   23 -3.454   21 -3.038    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  5.229   20 -2.868   19 -3.207
Baptist Bible MO         0 19  801 1761 -3.079   28 -3.732   28 -5.059   29 -5.928    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  1.938   30 -7.542   27 -4.315

NCCAA-II South: strength=-1.871 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Bob Jones U.            13 17 2430 2473 -1.326    4 -1.598    4 -1.619    3 -1.293    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.091    5 -0.897    4 -1.690
Pensacola Christian      8 12 1510 1584 -1.334    5 -1.649    5 -1.682    4 -1.620    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.838    8 -1.583    3 -1.657
Trinity Baptist          8 12 1349 1518 -1.504    6 -1.728    6 -1.780    6 -1.846    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  9.400   16 -2.365    2 -1.326
Piedmont Int'l           6  8 1130 1184 -1.700    7 -1.897    7 -1.949    7 -1.904    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  8.815    6 -1.442    8 -2.365
Trinity FL               6 11 1272 1358 -1.568    8 -1.968    8 -2.050    8 -1.982    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  8.571   13 -2.084    6 -1.880
Toccoa Falls             9 18 2231 2381 -1.705    9 -2.139    9 -2.257    9 -1.995    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  8.104    7 -1.461   11 -2.529
Johnson FL               0 14 1056 1368 -1.572   25 -3.170   25 -3.825   19 -2.984    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  4.452   15 -2.275   21 -3.692

NIAC: strength=-3.768 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Trinity Bible            8 12 1589 1723 -2.517   13 -2.501   13 -2.744   16 -2.720    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  6.566   14 -2.206   20 -3.233
AFLBS                    6  8 1182 1189 -3.775      -3.214      -3.909      -3.872      0.0000      0.0000       3.984      -3.396      -4.348
Oak Hills Christian      0 20 1183 2010 -2.719   27 -3.637   27 -4.738   27 -4.719    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  2.652   27 -4.864   29 -4.573

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-II South   50  92 0.352    1 -1.871
NCCAA-II Other   21  52 0.288    2 -2.457
NCCAA-II SW      28 138 0.169    3 -2.610
NCCAA-II Mid-E   63 130 0.326    4 -2.618
Midwest Chr      58 102 0.362    5 -3.293
NIAC             14  40 0.259    6 -3.768

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.238 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:25:45 2019

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