Biggest Surprise: Fairleigh Dickinson Advance to the Second Round (0.87%)

The biggest single-game upset since I have been making pre-tournament predictions was #16 Fairleigh Dickinson's defeat of Purdue, about a 1.7% likelihood event. Along with their effectively coin-flip win in the first four, there was less than a 0.9% chance of making it to the second round.

Honorable mention goes to the general number of upsets (2.2% chance). Specifically, no top-three seed making the final four (2.46%). The East region was comparativly up in the air, with the top three seeds having a combined 41% chance of winning the region. However, the other three regions had between a 60% and 71% chance of being won by a top-three seed, making it unlikely that the highest seed making the final four would be a four-seed.

Over the tournaments for which I have made predictions, here are the least likely outcomes from each:

Number of Upsets

After a 2019-2020 season where we could only post a tournament what-if scenario, and a 2020-2021 season where limited schedules, game cancelations, and a mix of empty and mostly-empty arenas made accurate predictions nearly impossible, we are back to asking the normal question: Are there more upsets in the NCAA tournament than if these were just regular season games? For this analysis, "upset" is defined by a team with less than a 50% chance (as calculated below) winning its game (generally the same as the betting underdog) rather than based on committee seeding.

For this tournament, the number of upsets was above the expected number of upsets by 2.9, which is well within the bounds of random variability. Across the tournaments since 2015 for which I have made predictions, we have seen 166 upsets in 540 games, vs. a predicted total of 160.7. While higher than predicted, the differential corresponds to 0.5 standard deviations, whcih is not statistically significant.

Below is the combined breakdown of upset statistics, by the likelihood of an upset, over the years tracked.

Likelihood# GamesExpected
# Upsets		Actual
# Upsets		Sigma
0-5%411.131.8
5-10%272.141.4
10-15%354.40-2.3
15-20%407.06-0.4
20-25%5412.2150.9
25-30%4111.4120.2
30-35%7825.323-0.6
35-40%5219.518-0.4
40-45%8536.3400.8
45-50%8741.3450.8
Total540160.71660.5
Odds of Advancing to Round, April 1

Champion 
*70.69% UCONN
 29.31% SAN DIEGO STATE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 26

Finals Champion 
*72.02% UCONN
*57.31% SAN DIEGO STATE
 42.69% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
 27.98% MIAMI

*52.37% UCONN
 20.70% SAN DIEGO STATE
 14.26% MIAMI
 12.68% FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 24

Final Four Finals Champion 
 68.35% TEXAS
 57.93% KANSAS STATE
 56.70% CREIGHTON
*55.10% UCONN
 44.90% GONZAGA
*43.30% SAN DIEGO STATE
*42.07% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
*31.65% MIAMI

 33.74% CREIGHTON
 33.67% TEXAS
*32.35% UCONN
 27.02% KANSAS STATE
 24.15% GONZAGA
*22.91% SAN DIEGO STATE
 16.33% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  9.83% MIAMI

*21.76% UCONN
 21.72% TEXAS
 15.10% GONZAGA
 14.21% CREIGHTON
  9.77% KANSAS STATE
  8.19% SAN DIEGO STATE
  4.74% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  4.51% MIAMI

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 19

Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*80.05% CREIGHTON
 79.78% HOUSTON
 78.10% TENNESSEE
 73.25% ALABAMA
*64.10% TEXAS
*63.48% UCONN
 55.65% UCLA
 50.54% MICHIGAN STATE
*49.46% KANSAS STATE
*44.35% GONZAGA
 36.52% ARKANSAS
 35.90% XAVIER
*26.75% SAN DIEGO STATE
*21.90% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
*20.22% MIAMI
 19.95% PRINCETON

 54.91% TENNESSEE
 53.61% HOUSTON
 52.15% ALABAMA
*32.30% UCONN
 31.96% CREIGHTON
 31.45% UCLA
 28.11% TEXAS
 22.60% GONZAGA
 18.44% MICHIGAN STATE
 17.80% KANSAS STATE
 13.66% ARKANSAS
*13.03% SAN DIEGO STATE
 11.14% XAVIER
* 8.86% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
* 7.14% MIAMI
  2.86% PRINCETON

 33.59% HOUSTON
 32.17% ALABAMA
 31.61% TENNESSEE
 15.66% UCLA
*15.58% UCONN
 14.55% CREIGHTON
 14.08% TEXAS
 10.03% GONZAGA
  6.95% MICHIGAN STATE
  6.62% KANSAS STATE
* 5.00% SAN DIEGO STATE
  4.83% ARKANSAS
  4.02% XAVIER
  2.57% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  2.19% MIAMI
  0.51% PRINCETON

 21.03% HOUSTON
 17.53% ALABAMA
 16.61% TENNESSEE
  8.46% UCLA
* 8.17% UCONN
  7.10% TEXAS
  5.53% CREIGHTON
  4.87% GONZAGA
  2.26% MICHIGAN STATE
  2.13% KANSAS STATE
  1.90% ARKANSAS
  1.55% SAN DIEGO STATE
  1.48% XAVIER
  0.69% MIAMI
  0.63% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  0.07% PRINCETON

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 17

Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*91.91% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
*75.41% HOUSTON
*74.23% UCLA
*71.34% TEXAS
*70.76% ALABAMA
*69.00% SAN DIEGO STATE
 65.22% MISSOURI
*64.04% GONZAGA
*63.63% XAVIER
*61.95% TENNESSEE
*60.53% UCONN
 60.32% KANSAS
 57.41% INDIANA
 56.07% MARQUETTE
 52.82% KENTUCKY
 51.70% BAYLOR
*48.30% CREIGHTON
*47.18% KANSAS STATE
*43.93% MICHIGAN STATE
*42.59% MIAMI
*39.68% ARKANSAS
 39.47% SAINT MARY'S
 38.05% DUKE
 36.37% PITTSBURGH
 35.96% TCU
*34.78% PRINCETON
 31.00% FURMAN
 29.24% MARYLAND
 28.66% PENN STATE
 25.77% NORTHWESTERN
 24.59% AUBURN
  8.09% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

 57.99% HOUSTON
 55.01% ALABAMA
*49.28% TEXAS
 48.93% TENNESSEE
 45.01% UCLA
 38.28% BAYLOR
*35.10% CREIGHTON
*34.20% UCONN
*32.47% GONZAGA
 31.20% KANSAS
 30.73% MARQUETTE
 26.46% XAVIER
 26.45% DUKE
 25.98% KENTUCKY
*24.44% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
*22.31% SAN DIEGO STATE
*21.88% KANSAS STATE
 21.41% MICHIGAN STATE
 20.12% MISSOURI
 18.26% INDIANA
 18.15% SAINT MARY'S
 17.28% MARYLAND
 16.45% ARKANSAS
 13.67% PENN STATE
 13.36% TCU
 12.79% AUBURN
*10.96% MIAMI
 10.59% PITTSBURGH
  9.16% NORTHWESTERN
  6.49% PRINCETON
  5.40% FURMAN
  0.18% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

 40.78% HOUSTON
 38.58% ALABAMA
 33.23% TENNESSEE
 26.00% UCLA
 24.60% TEXAS
*18.37% UCONN
 17.98% BAYLOR
 16.92% GONZAGA
 16.01% KANSAS
 15.92% CREIGHTON
 14.92% DUKE
 14.04% MARQUETTE
 11.02% KENTUCKY
*10.44% SAN DIEGO STATE
  9.54% XAVIER
* 9.52% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  8.71% KANSAS STATE
  8.64% MARYLAND
  8.56% MICHIGAN STATE
  8.38% INDIANA
  7.86% SAINT MARY'S
  6.77% ARKANSAS
  5.75% MISSOURI
  5.73% AUBURN
  5.08% TCU
* 4.26% MIAMI
  4.08% PENN STATE
  2.99% NORTHWESTERN
  2.62% PITTSBURGH
  1.56% FURMAN
  1.14% PRINCETON
  0.01% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

 26.05% HOUSTON
 24.38% ALABAMA
 20.26% TENNESSEE
 14.26% UCLA
 12.88% TEXAS
* 9.54% UCONN
  8.81% BAYLOR
  8.35% GONZAGA
  7.94% KANSAS
  7.54% CREIGHTON
  7.39% DUKE
  6.57% MARQUETTE
  4.79% KENTUCKY
* 4.09% SAN DIEGO STATE
  3.66% MARYLAND
  3.60% XAVIER
  3.56% KANSAS STATE
  3.51% MICHIGAN STATE
  3.29% SAINT MARY'S
  3.22% INDIANA
  3.16% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  2.70% ARKANSAS
  2.14% AUBURN
  1.83% TCU
  1.71% MISSOURI
  1.35% MIAMI
  1.26% PENN STATE
  0.93% NORTHWESTERN
  0.67% PITTSBURGH
  0.35% FURMAN
  0.21% PRINCETON
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

 17.05% HOUSTON
 13.69% ALABAMA
 11.11% TENNESSEE
  8.27% UCLA
  6.99% TEXAS
* 5.26% UCONN
  4.38% GONZAGA
  4.19% KANSAS
  3.69% BAYLOR
  3.18% DUKE
  3.03% CREIGHTON
  2.65% MARQUETTE
  1.78% KENTUCKY
  1.48% SAINT MARY'S
  1.43% XAVIER
  1.32% SAN DIEGO STATE
  1.30% INDIANA
  1.30% MARYLAND
  1.23% KANSAS STATE
  1.22% MICHIGAN STATE
  1.15% ARKANSAS
  0.86% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  0.84% AUBURN
  0.71% TCU
  0.45% MIAMI
  0.42% PENN STATE
  0.41% MISSOURI
  0.31% NORTHWESTERN
  0.18% PITTSBURGH
  0.06% FURMAN
  0.03% PRINCETON
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 15

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
 98.04% PURDUE
*97.02% ALABAMA
*96.57% HOUSTON
*96.53% KANSAS
*94.41% UCLA
*91.16% TENNESSEE
*88.77% GONZAGA
*87.81% XAVIER
*87.39% TEXAS
*86.46% BAYLOR
 84.75% ARIZONA
*82.86% KANSAS STATE
*81.13% MARQUETTE
*78.34% UCONN
*75.11% DUKE
 72.15% VIRGINIA
*68.92% INDIANA
 66.97% IOWA STATE
*66.18% SAINT MARY'S
*64.22% TCU
*63.88% CREIGHTON
*62.17% SAN DIEGO STATE
*59.37% MIAMI
*58.40% MICHIGAN STATE
*58.23% KENTUCKY
 58.08% MEMPHIS
 56.98% UTAH STATE
 55.35% TEXAS A&M
*53.09% NORTHWESTERN
*52.51% ARKANSAS
*52.26% AUBURN
 51.83% WEST VIRGINIA
*48.17% MARYLAND
 47.74% IOWA
 47.49% ILLINOIS
 46.91% BOISE STATE
*44.65% PENN STATE
*43.02% MISSOURI
*41.92% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
 41.77% PROVIDENCE
 41.60% USC
 40.63% DRAKE
 37.83% CHARLESTON
 36.12% NC STATE
 35.78% ARIZONA STATE
 33.82% VCU
*33.03% PITTSBURGH
 31.08% KENT STATE
*27.85% FURMAN
 24.89% ORAL ROBERTS
 21.66% IONA
 18.87% VERMONT
 17.14% MONTANA STATE
*15.25% PRINCETON
 13.54% UC SANTA BARBARA
 12.61% COLGATE
 12.19% KENNESAW STATE
 11.23% GRAND CANYON
  8.84% LOUISIANA
  5.59% UNC ASHEVILLE
  3.47% HOWARD
  3.43% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  2.98% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
* 1.96% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

*74.60% HOUSTON
*70.85% UCLA
*68.14% ALABAMA
 67.28% PURDUE
*63.29% TENNESSEE
*60.77% TEXAS
*60.75% GONZAGA
 59.68% KANSAS
 59.15% ARIZONA
*50.92% UCONN
 49.05% BAYLOR
 48.26% MARQUETTE
*48.19% XAVIER
*42.46% KANSAS STATE
 42.27% INDIANA
 41.50% VIRGINIA
 37.04% IOWA STATE
*34.04% CREIGHTON
 33.60% KENTUCKY
*33.14% SAN DIEGO STATE
 30.83% SAINT MARY'S
 30.06% DUKE
*29.26% MICHIGAN STATE
*28.72% MIAMI
 26.35% TCU
 22.11% UTAH STATE
*21.63% ARKANSAS
 21.03% TEXAS A&M
 20.85% PROVIDENCE
 20.66% MEMPHIS
 18.46% ILLINOIS
 17.54% USC
 16.77% WEST VIRGINIA
 15.97% DRAKE
 15.67% CHARLESTON
 15.55% NORTHWESTERN
 14.88% PENN STATE
 14.83% MARYLAND
 14.48% NC STATE
 14.07% MISSOURI
 13.44% AUBURN
 13.05% KENT STATE
 12.88% PITTSBURGH
 12.59% BOISE STATE
*11.95% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
 11.47% IOWA
 10.66% VCU
 10.24% ARIZONA STATE
  9.69% FURMAN
  7.59% IONA
  4.94% VERMONT
  4.74% ORAL ROBERTS
* 4.68% PRINCETON
  3.32% COLGATE
  3.10% MONTANA STATE
  2.66% GRAND CANYON
  2.44% UC SANTA BARBARA
  1.91% LOUISIANA
  1.88% KENNESAW STATE
  1.01% UNC ASHEVILLE
  0.49% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.26% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
  0.23% HOWARD
  0.12% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

 60.13% HOUSTON
 51.41% ALABAMA
 43.67% UCLA
*40.09% TEXAS
 39.57% TENNESSEE
 33.76% ARIZONA
 33.73% PURDUE
 33.62% KANSAS
*32.34% GONZAGA
*28.73% UCONN
 27.56% MARQUETTE
 27.20% BAYLOR
 21.55% XAVIER
*21.35% KANSAS STATE
*18.30% CREIGHTON
 17.62% KENTUCKY
 16.83% IOWA STATE
 14.96% MICHIGAN STATE
 14.63% VIRGINIA
 14.60% DUKE
 14.34% SAINT MARY'S
 13.40% INDIANA
*10.81% SAN DIEGO STATE
 10.49% TCU
 10.24% TEXAS A&M
  9.93% ARKANSAS
  9.64% WEST VIRGINIA
  9.25% PROVIDENCE
  8.81% UTAH STATE
  8.26% MARYLAND
  8.03% ILLINOIS
  7.55% AUBURN
  7.51% USC
* 7.34% MIAMI
  7.26% MEMPHIS
  6.47% PENN STATE
  6.19% IOWA
  5.84% NC STATE
  5.83% NORTHWESTERN
  4.70% MISSOURI
  4.37% BOISE STATE
  3.82% PITTSBURGH
  3.55% CHARLESTON
* 3.37% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  3.29% VCU
  3.03% DRAKE
  2.80% ARIZONA STATE
  2.27% KENT STATE
  2.05% IONA
  1.67% FURMAN
  1.21% VERMONT
  1.16% ORAL ROBERTS
  0.96% PRINCETON
  0.79% COLGATE
  0.55% MONTANA STATE
  0.44% UC SANTA BARBARA
  0.38% GRAND CANYON
  0.31% LOUISIANA
  0.20% KENNESAW STATE
  0.11% UNC ASHEVILLE
  0.09% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.03% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
  0.01% HOWARD
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

 43.09% HOUSTON
 34.58% ALABAMA
 28.01% TENNESSEE
 25.69% UCLA
 21.82% PURDUE
 19.80% TEXAS
 17.61% GONZAGA
 17.59% KANSAS
 16.83% ARIZONA
*15.48% UCONN
 12.68% BAYLOR
 11.42% MARQUETTE
  8.38% DUKE
  8.23% CREIGHTON
  7.90% XAVIER
  7.71% KANSAS STATE
  6.72% KENTUCKY
  6.72% VIRGINIA
  6.33% SAINT MARY'S
  6.28% IOWA STATE
  6.17% INDIANA
  5.35% MICHIGAN STATE
* 4.65% SAN DIEGO STATE
  4.62% WEST VIRGINIA
  4.26% TCU
  4.16% ARKANSAS
  3.81% MARYLAND
  3.57% MEMPHIS
  3.41% TEXAS A&M
  3.39% AUBURN
  3.18% ILLINOIS
  2.95% UTAH STATE
  2.84% PROVIDENCE
* 2.84% MIAMI
  2.65% IOWA
  2.13% USC
  2.00% NORTHWESTERN
  1.88% NC STATE
  1.87% PENN STATE
* 1.39% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  1.38% BOISE STATE
  1.30% MISSOURI
  1.12% CHARLESTON
  0.96% VCU
  0.92% DRAKE
  0.89% PITTSBURGH
  0.77% ARIZONA STATE
  0.64% KENT STATE
  0.52% IONA
  0.42% FURMAN
  0.36% ORAL ROBERTS
  0.17% VERMONT
  0.16% PRINCETON
  0.11% COLGATE
  0.07% LOUISIANA
  0.06% UC SANTA BARBARA
  0.06% MONTANA STATE
  0.05% GRAND CANYON
  0.02% KENNESAW STATE
  0.01% UNC ASHEVILLE
  0.01% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
  0.00% HOWARD
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

 28.34% HOUSTON
 21.41% ALABAMA
 17.17% TENNESSEE
 13.78% UCLA
 11.95% PURDUE
 10.53% TEXAS
  8.70% GONZAGA
  8.64% KANSAS
  8.50% ARIZONA
* 7.84% UCONN
  5.98% BAYLOR
  5.19% MARQUETTE
  3.98% DUKE
  3.74% CREIGHTON
  3.12% XAVIER
  3.09% KANSAS STATE
  2.84% KENTUCKY
  2.72% VIRGINIA
  2.61% SAINT MARY'S
  2.52% IOWA STATE
  2.42% INDIANA
  2.12% MICHIGAN STATE
  1.96% WEST VIRGINIA
* 1.75% SAN DIEGO STATE
  1.63% ARKANSAS
  1.55% MARYLAND
  1.54% TCU
  1.41% MEMPHIS
  1.29% AUBURN
  1.22% TEXAS A&M
  1.17% ILLINOIS
  1.00% UTAH STATE
  0.98% PROVIDENCE
  0.95% IOWA
  0.92% MIAMI
  0.68% USC
  0.61% NORTHWESTERN
  0.61% NC STATE
  0.58% PENN STATE
  0.45% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  0.39% BOISE STATE
  0.36% MISSOURI
  0.30% CHARLESTON
  0.26% VCU
  0.22% DRAKE
  0.22% PITTSBURGH
  0.19% ARIZONA STATE
  0.14% KENT STATE
  0.12% IONA
  0.09% FURMAN
  0.09% ORAL ROBERTS
  0.03% VERMONT
  0.03% PRINCETON
  0.02% COLGATE
  0.01% LOUISIANA
  0.01% UC SANTA BARBARA
  0.01% MONTANA STATE
  0.01% GRAND CANYON
  0.00% KENNESAW STATE
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE
  0.00% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
  0.00% HOWARD
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

 18.57% HOUSTON
 12.09% ALABAMA
  9.60% TENNESSEE
  7.75% UCLA
  5.89% PURDUE
  5.59% TEXAS
  4.52% GONZAGA
  4.46% KANSAS
* 4.17% UCONN
  3.82% ARIZONA
  2.49% BAYLOR
  2.08% MARQUETTE
  1.67% DUKE
  1.50% CREIGHTON
  1.23% XAVIER
  1.14% SAINT MARY'S
  1.08% KANSAS STATE
  1.04% KENTUCKY
  1.01% IOWA STATE
  0.96% VIRGINIA
  0.95% INDIANA
  0.73% MICHIGAN STATE
  0.73% WEST VIRGINIA
  0.67% ARKANSAS
  0.59% TCU
  0.57% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.55% MARYLAND
  0.49% AUBURN
  0.48% MEMPHIS
  0.45% ILLINOIS
  0.44% TEXAS A&M
  0.34% IOWA
  0.30% MIAMI
  0.29% PROVIDENCE
  0.29% UTAH STATE
  0.20% NORTHWESTERN
  0.19% USC
  0.18% PENN STATE
  0.17% NC STATE
  0.12% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  0.11% BOISE STATE
  0.08% MISSOURI
  0.07% VCU
  0.07% CHARLESTON
  0.06% PITTSBURGH
  0.05% DRAKE
  0.05% ARIZONA STATE
  0.03% KENT STATE
  0.03% IONA
  0.02% ORAL ROBERTS
  0.02% FURMAN
  0.00% VERMONT
  0.00% PRINCETON
  0.00% COLGATE
  0.00% LOUISIANA
  0.00% GRAND CANYON
  0.00% UC SANTA BARBARA
  0.00% MONTANA STATE
  0.00% KENNESAW STATE
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE
  0.00% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
  0.00% HOWARD
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 12

First Round Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*59.22% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
 56.77% MISSISSIPPI STATE
*50.30% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
 50.01% NEVADA
*49.99% ARIZONA STATE
 49.70% TEXAS SOUTHERN
*43.23% PITTSBURGH
 40.78% SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

 98.28% PURDUE
*97.56% ALABAMA
*96.53% HOUSTON
*96.53% KANSAS
*94.37% UCLA
*91.12% TENNESSEE
*88.83% GONZAGA
*87.83% XAVIER
*87.40% TEXAS
*86.41% BAYLOR
 84.60% ARIZONA
*83.06% KANSAS STATE
*81.14% MARQUETTE
*78.36% UCONN
*75.14% DUKE
 72.29% VIRGINIA
*68.87% INDIANA
*66.33% SAINT MARY'S
*66.00% TCU
*63.69% CREIGHTON
 63.58% IOWA STATE
*62.57% SAN DIEGO STATE
*59.30% MIAMI
*58.56% MICHIGAN STATE
*58.34% KENTUCKY
 57.95% MEMPHIS
 57.31% UTAH STATE
 55.44% TEXAS A&M
*52.72% NORTHWESTERN
*52.70% ARKANSAS
*52.39% AUBURN
 51.86% WEST VIRGINIA
*48.14% MARYLAND
 47.61% IOWA
 47.30% ILLINOIS
 47.28% BOISE STATE
*44.56% PENN STATE
*42.69% MISSOURI
*42.05% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
 41.66% PROVIDENCE
 41.44% USC
 40.70% DRAKE
 37.43% CHARLESTON
 36.31% NC STATE
 33.67% VCU
 31.13% KENT STATE
*27.71% FURMAN
 24.86% ORAL ROBERTS
 22.24% MISSISSIPPI STATE
 21.64% IONA
 18.86% VERMONT
 17.01% NEVADA
 16.99% ARIZONA STATE
 16.94% MONTANA STATE
*15.40% PRINCETON
*14.19% PITTSBURGH
 13.59% UC SANTA BARBARA
 12.60% COLGATE
 12.17% KENNESAW STATE
 11.17% GRAND CANYON
  8.88% LOUISIANA
  5.63% UNC ASHEVILLE
  3.47% HOWARD
  3.47% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  1.75% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
* 0.87% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.85% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.69% SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

*74.35% HOUSTON
*70.59% UCLA
*68.63% ALABAMA
 67.64% PURDUE
*63.23% TENNESSEE
*61.03% GONZAGA
*60.71% TEXAS
 59.67% KANSAS
 58.70% ARIZONA
*50.92% UCONN
 49.04% BAYLOR
 48.32% MARQUETTE
*47.54% XAVIER
*42.58% KANSAS STATE
 42.14% INDIANA
 41.49% VIRGINIA
 35.15% IOWA STATE
*33.90% CREIGHTON
 33.65% KENTUCKY
*33.50% SAN DIEGO STATE
 30.92% SAINT MARY'S
 30.11% DUKE
*29.33% MICHIGAN STATE
*28.76% MIAMI
 27.07% TCU
 22.55% UTAH STATE
*21.76% ARKANSAS
 21.12% TEXAS A&M
 20.74% PROVIDENCE
 20.39% MEMPHIS
 18.34% ILLINOIS
 17.40% USC
 16.57% WEST VIRGINIA
 16.07% DRAKE
 15.51% NORTHWESTERN
 15.44% CHARLESTON
 14.86% PENN STATE
 14.61% MARYLAND
 14.61% NC STATE
 14.06% MISSOURI
 13.63% AUBURN
 13.04% KENT STATE
 12.89% BOISE STATE
*11.88% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
 11.53% IOWA
 10.57% VCU
 10.00% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  9.56% FURMAN
  7.58% IONA
  5.50% PITTSBURGH
  4.95% VERMONT
  4.74% ORAL ROBERTS
* 4.70% PRINCETON
  4.61% NEVADA
  4.61% ARIZONA STATE
  3.31% COLGATE
  3.03% MONTANA STATE
  2.68% GRAND CANYON
  2.45% UC SANTA BARBARA
  1.92% LOUISIANA
  1.80% KENNESAW STATE
  1.01% UNC ASHEVILLE
  0.49% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.23% HOWARD
  0.15% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
  0.05% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.04% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.04% SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

 59.83% HOUSTON
 51.69% ALABAMA
 43.34% UCLA
*39.94% TEXAS
 39.57% TENNESSEE
 33.86% PURDUE
 33.61% KANSAS
 33.37% ARIZONA
*32.61% GONZAGA
*28.72% UCONN
 27.54% MARQUETTE
 27.28% BAYLOR
*21.46% KANSAS STATE
 21.27% XAVIER
*18.27% CREIGHTON
 17.70% KENTUCKY
 15.98% IOWA STATE
 14.95% MICHIGAN STATE
 14.66% DUKE
 14.62% VIRGINIA
 14.38% SAINT MARY'S
 13.41% INDIANA
*10.99% SAN DIEGO STATE
 10.83% TCU
 10.26% TEXAS A&M
 10.01% ARKANSAS
  9.48% WEST VIRGINIA
  9.20% PROVIDENCE
  9.05% UTAH STATE
  8.09% MARYLAND
  7.96% ILLINOIS
  7.68% AUBURN
* 7.41% MIAMI
  7.40% USC
  7.10% MEMPHIS
  6.43% PENN STATE
  6.22% IOWA
  5.93% NC STATE
  5.81% NORTHWESTERN
  4.69% MISSOURI
  4.51% BOISE STATE
  3.53% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  3.48% CHARLESTON
* 3.33% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  3.25% VCU
  3.08% DRAKE
  2.28% KENT STATE
  2.05% IONA
  1.64% FURMAN
  1.62% PITTSBURGH
  1.21% VERMONT
  1.20% NEVADA
  1.20% ARIZONA STATE
  1.16% ORAL ROBERTS
  0.96% PRINCETON
  0.78% COLGATE
  0.54% MONTANA STATE
  0.45% UC SANTA BARBARA
  0.39% GRAND CANYON
  0.31% LOUISIANA
  0.19% KENNESAW STATE
  0.11% UNC ASHEVILLE
  0.09% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.02% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
  0.01% HOWARD
  0.00% SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN

 42.77% HOUSTON
 34.85% ALABAMA
 28.02% TENNESSEE
 25.40% UCLA
 21.88% PURDUE
 19.81% TEXAS
 17.76% GONZAGA
 17.63% KANSAS
 16.51% ARIZONA
*15.51% UCONN
 12.68% BAYLOR
 11.40% MARQUETTE
  8.42% DUKE
  8.17% CREIGHTON
  7.85% XAVIER
  7.77% KANSAS STATE
  6.77% KENTUCKY
  6.75% VIRGINIA
  6.37% SAINT MARY'S
  6.17% INDIANA
  5.99% IOWA STATE
  5.34% MICHIGAN STATE
* 4.78% SAN DIEGO STATE
  4.55% WEST VIRGINIA
  4.39% TCU
  4.22% ARKANSAS
  3.74% MARYLAND
  3.47% MEMPHIS
  3.46% AUBURN
  3.45% TEXAS A&M
  3.15% ILLINOIS
  3.05% UTAH STATE
* 2.87% MIAMI
  2.83% PROVIDENCE
  2.66% IOWA
  2.09% USC
  1.98% NORTHWESTERN
  1.91% NC STATE
  1.87% PENN STATE
  1.43% BOISE STATE
* 1.37% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  1.29% MISSOURI
  1.10% CHARLESTON
  1.00% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  0.95% VCU
  0.94% DRAKE
  0.64% KENT STATE
  0.52% IONA
  0.41% FURMAN
  0.38% PITTSBURGH
  0.36% ORAL ROBERTS
  0.31% NEVADA
  0.31% ARIZONA STATE
  0.17% VERMONT
  0.16% PRINCETON
  0.11% COLGATE
  0.07% LOUISIANA
  0.06% UC SANTA BARBARA
  0.05% MONTANA STATE
  0.05% GRAND CANYON
  0.02% KENNESAW STATE
  0.01% UNC ASHEVILLE
  0.01% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
  0.00% HOWARD
  0.00% SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN

 28.06% HOUSTON
 21.59% ALABAMA
 17.18% TENNESSEE
 13.63% UCLA
 11.98% PURDUE
 10.55% TEXAS
  8.81% GONZAGA
  8.70% KANSAS
  8.29% ARIZONA
* 7.89% UCONN
  5.98% BAYLOR
  5.18% MARQUETTE
  4.00% DUKE
  3.71% CREIGHTON
  3.12% KANSAS STATE
  3.10% XAVIER
  2.86% KENTUCKY
  2.74% VIRGINIA
  2.64% SAINT MARY'S
  2.42% INDIANA
  2.41% IOWA STATE
  2.11% MICHIGAN STATE
  1.93% WEST VIRGINIA
* 1.82% SAN DIEGO STATE
  1.66% ARKANSAS
  1.60% TCU
  1.52% MARYLAND
  1.36% MEMPHIS
  1.32% AUBURN
  1.24% TEXAS A&M
  1.16% ILLINOIS
  1.04% UTAH STATE
  0.98% PROVIDENCE
  0.96% IOWA
  0.93% MIAMI
  0.66% USC
  0.62% NC STATE
  0.61% NORTHWESTERN
  0.58% PENN STATE
  0.44% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  0.41% BOISE STATE
  0.36% MISSOURI
  0.30% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  0.30% CHARLESTON
  0.26% VCU
  0.23% DRAKE
  0.14% KENT STATE
  0.12% IONA
  0.09% PITTSBURGH
  0.09% ORAL ROBERTS
  0.09% FURMAN
  0.07% NEVADA
  0.07% ARIZONA STATE
  0.03% VERMONT
  0.03% PRINCETON
  0.02% COLGATE
  0.01% LOUISIANA
  0.01% UC SANTA BARBARA
  0.01% GRAND CANYON
  0.01% MONTANA STATE
  0.00% KENNESAW STATE
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE
  0.00% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
  0.00% HOWARD
  0.00% SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN

 18.32% HOUSTON
 12.24% ALABAMA
  9.64% TENNESSEE
  7.64% UCLA
  5.92% PURDUE
  5.59% TEXAS
  4.57% GONZAGA
  4.49% KANSAS
* 4.19% UCONN
  3.72% ARIZONA
  2.50% BAYLOR
  2.08% MARQUETTE
  1.69% DUKE
  1.49% CREIGHTON
  1.22% XAVIER
  1.15% SAINT MARY'S
  1.09% KANSAS STATE
  1.06% KENTUCKY
  0.97% VIRGINIA
  0.97% IOWA STATE
  0.95% INDIANA
  0.73% MICHIGAN STATE
  0.72% WEST VIRGINIA
  0.69% ARKANSAS
  0.61% TCU
  0.60% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.54% MARYLAND
  0.51% AUBURN
  0.46% MEMPHIS
  0.45% ILLINOIS
  0.45% TEXAS A&M
  0.35% IOWA
  0.30% UTAH STATE
  0.30% MIAMI
  0.29% PROVIDENCE
  0.19% NORTHWESTERN
  0.18% PENN STATE
  0.18% USC
  0.17% NC STATE
  0.12% BOISE STATE
  0.12% FLORIDA ATLANTIC
  0.09% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  0.08% MISSOURI
  0.07% VCU
  0.07% CHARLESTON
  0.06% DRAKE
  0.03% KENT STATE
  0.03% IONA
  0.02% PITTSBURGH
  0.02% NEVADA
  0.02% ARIZONA STATE
  0.02% ORAL ROBERTS
  0.01% FURMAN
  0.00% VERMONT
  0.00% PRINCETON
  0.00% COLGATE
  0.00% LOUISIANA
  0.00% GRAND CANYON
  0.00% UC SANTA BARBARA
  0.00% MONTANA STATE
  0.00% KENNESAW STATE
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE
  0.00% TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
  0.00% HOWARD
  0.00% SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN

Note: asterisk denotes team advanced

Selection Notes

As noted in previous seasons, the selections this year largely followed my standard and blended pseudopoll rankings. The pseudopoll correctly predicted 35 of 36 at-large teams, while the standard rankings correctly predicted 34. The one "miss" in both cases was that the computer rankings would have selected Oklahoma State over Pitt. In fact, the NCAA's own NET ranking would have also made that choice, as would have my predictive rankings. It's somewhat unclear what the selection committee saw in Pitt. By comparison, my predictive rankings selected 29 of the 36 at-large teams and the NET rankings selected 27.

When it came to seedings, the pseudopoll did the the best overall, with 31 of 68 teams predicted at the correct seed and 54 within one. Again, the standard ranking was a close second, seeding 29 teams exactly on, and 50 within one. A few teams may have some gripes about their seeding: San Diego State, FAU, Memphis, and Utah State could have easily been seeded two spots (or more) higher.

Prediction Notes

Heading into the tournament, an interesting metric is the relative parity at the top. Top does not mean the #1 seeds, but rather the teams with the best chances of winning. Here is a comparison of the number of teams as a function of likelihood of winning, vs. season.

Season5-10%10-15%15-20%20-25%≥25%Winner
2014-2015230017.9%
2015-2016411005.0%
2016-20172210013.2%
2017-20184120015.7%
2018-20192220019.9%
2020-2021+3201012.0%
2021-20226001016.3%
2022-2023411004.2%

In comparison with previous seasons, this season has is tied with the fewest teams with a 10% chance or greater of winning it all. While Houston (18.3%) is the clear favorite relative to any other team, the field has about a five-in-six chance.

+ 2020-2021 tournament predictions less precise due to COVID impacts

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Note: if you use any of the facts, equations, or mathematical principles introduced here, you must give me credit.

copyright ©2023 Andrew Dolphin