Basketball Tournament Predictions (2021)

A Unique Season

The 2020-2021 season has been unprecedented in several ways that are not accounted for in my computer rating system. Some specifics, including how the rankings could be affected are as follows:

Because of many leagues canceling many/most non-conference games, it was necessary to keep the priors involved throughout the season. This means that past years' performance was factored into final ratings, though more generally on a conference by conference basis. Impact to a team's own rating was minimal, as can be seen by the fact that traditional powers that underwhelmed this year are rated more similarly to other "prior-free" systems than to previous years' performance.
The computer rankings do not incorporate data on what seating capacity was used for each "home" game. Average home court advantage this season was significantly below historical averages, but it seems reasonable to guess that teams playing home games in empty arenas received less home court advantage than those that did not. As a result, teams with empty home arenas are likely underrated slightly, especially if playing in conferences with mixed lockdown levels.
The computer rankings do not incorporate availability of key players due to COVID protocols. While key injuries have historically been omitted from these rankings, the number of games missed has been anomalously high.
Games not played due to COVID impacts for one or both teams are ignored from the computer rankings. While I believe this is the right approach for predictive purposes, it means that teams will not get credit for having "defeated" conference tournament opponents in uncontested games.

All that aside, let's see if this tournament turns out less predictable than previous years.

Biggest Surprise: Pac-12 (0.21%)

As highlighted above, one of the key caveats for this year's predictions was the reduced non-conference schedules and consequently the less information about relative conference strengths. Perhaps related to this, the biggest surprise of the year was the Pac-12 outperforming expectations in multiple ways:

All five teams advanced to the second round. While USC, Colorado, and Oregon were favored, UCLA and Oregon State were not. Combined odds of all five teams winning was 1.30%
Four of five teams in the Sweet 16. With UCLA and Oregon State as long shots (both <10% likelihood), there was only a 0.58% chance that at least four of the teams would make it.
Three teams in the Elite 8. Given Oregon and USC were in the same half of their region bracket, it was only possible that four teams made it that far, and a likelihood of 0.21% that at least three would make it.

For comparison, the least probable run by a non Pac-12 team this year [as of the third round] was Oral Roberts' Sweet 16 appearance (1.57% probability). Even the Pac-12's longest shot (UCLA's run to the final four, 1.09%) was more likely than the conference's overall performance.

On the chalk side, it is true that the three most likely final four participants made it, and that the two most likely finals participants advanced to that level. However the odds of those happenings were 5.29% and 7.51%, respectively. Note that neither a Gonzaga (24.24%) or Baylor (12.01%) title would be even less unlikely than the two of them advancing to the finals.

Number of Upsets

Are there more upsets in the NCAA tournament than if this was a regular season? For this analysis, "upset" is defined by a team with less than 50% chance (as calculated below) winning its game (generally the same as the betting underdog) rather than based on committee seeding.

First Four: 1.8 predicted, 2 actual
First Round: 8.1 predicted, 10 actual
Second Round: 5.2 predicted, 8 actual
Sweet Sixteen: 2.4 predicted, 2 actual
Elite Eight: 1.0 predicted, 1 actual
Final Four: 0.6 predicted, 0 actual
Championship: 0.4 predicted, 1 actual
Grand Total: 19.5 predicted, 24 actual

For this tournament, the number of upsets was above the expected number of upsets by 4.5, which represents the largest difference in the six years I have made these predictions. However, that represents just under 1.3 standard deviations, a relatively low "unlikelihood" threshold that should happen about once in five seasons. This is the first time the difference has exceeded one standard deviation, an event that should happen once in three seasons.

So, despite the fact the 0.21% number below is the least likely event in the six tournaments tracked, there is no evidence this tournament was significantly abnormal in terms of inability to predict. Below is the combined breakdown of upset statics, by the likelihood of an upset.

Likelihood # Games Expected
# Upsets Actual
# Upsets Sigma

0-5% 32 0.8 2 1.4

5-10% 17 1.3 2 0.6

10-15% 30 3.8 0 -2.1

15-20% 32 5.6 4 -0.8

20-25% 40 9.1 10 0.4

25-30% 31 8.6 9 0.1

30-35% 62 20.1 16 -1.1

35-40% 36 13.5 17 1.2

40-45% 57 24.4 25 0.2

45-50% 69 32.7 36 0.8

Total 406 120.0 121 0.1

Likelihood	# Games	Expected # Upsets	Actual # Upsets	Sigma
0-5%	32	0.8	2	1.4
5-10%	17	1.3	2	0.6
10-15%	30	3.8	0	-2.1
15-20%	32	5.6	4	-0.8
20-25%	40	9.1	10	0.4
25-30%	31	8.6	9	0.1
30-35%	62	20.1	16	-1.1
35-40%	36	13.5	17	1.2
40-45%	57	24.4	25	0.2
45-50%	69	32.7	36	0.8
Total	406	120.0	121	0.1

Odds of Advancing to Round, April 4

Champion

58.65% GONZAGA *41.35% BAYLOR

Champion
58.65% GONZAGA *41.35% BAYLOR

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 31

Finals Champion

*84.96% GONZAGA *53.76% BAYLOR 46.24% HOUSTON 15.04% UCLA

53.41% GONZAGA *23.96% BAYLOR 19.01% HOUSTON 3.62% UCLA

Finals	Champion
84.96% GONZAGA 53.76% BAYLOR 46.24% HOUSTON 15.04% UCLA	53.41% GONZAGA *23.96% BAYLOR 19.01% HOUSTON 3.62% UCLA

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 29

Final Four Finals Champion

*85.69% HOUSTON *75.04% GONZAGA 72.17% MICHIGAN *69.82% BAYLOR 30.18% ARKANSAS *27.83% UCLA 24.96% USC 14.31% OREGON STATE

*53.98% GONZAGA 45.57% HOUSTON *40.37% BAYLOR 28.57% MICHIGAN 11.76% USC 11.63% ARKANSAS 5.69% UCLA 2.43% OREGON STATE

34.86% GONZAGA 21.43% HOUSTON *20.09% BAYLOR 13.64% MICHIGAN 4.55% USC 3.59% ARKANSAS 1.51% UCLA 0.34% OREGON STATE

Final Four	Finals	Champion
85.69% HOUSTON 75.04% GONZAGA 72.17% MICHIGAN 69.82% BAYLOR 30.18% ARKANSAS 27.83% UCLA 24.96% USC 14.31% OREGON STATE	53.98% GONZAGA 45.57% HOUSTON 40.37% BAYLOR 28.57% MICHIGAN 11.76% USC 11.63% ARKANSAS 5.69% UCLA 2.43% OREGON STATE	34.86% GONZAGA 21.43% HOUSTON *20.09% BAYLOR 13.64% MICHIGAN 4.55% USC 3.59% ARKANSAS 1.51% UCLA 0.34% OREGON STATE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 23

Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*88.14% ARKANSAS *79.15% GONZAGA *74.15% HOUSTON 71.18% LOYOLA CHICAGO 66.08% ALABAMA *66.04% BAYLOR *60.34% MICHIGAN *59.29% USC 40.71% OREGON 39.66% FLORIDA STATE 33.96% VILLANOVA *33.92% UCLA *28.82% OREGON STATE 25.85% SYRACUSE 20.85% CREIGHTON 11.86% ORAL ROBERTS

*61.64% GONZAGA *54.95% HOUSTON *47.10% BAYLOR 37.50% MICHIGAN 32.84% ARKANSAS 31.17% ALABAMA 26.36% LOYOLA CHICAGO 20.63% FLORIDA STATE 19.24% VILLANOVA 18.51% USC 13.11% SYRACUSE *10.70% UCLA 10.11% CREIGHTON 9.73% OREGON 5.57% OREGON STATE 0.82% ORAL ROBERTS

*44.99% GONZAGA 30.80% HOUSTON *29.90% BAYLOR 16.54% MICHIGAN 15.07% ARKANSAS 11.77% ALABAMA 9.67% LOYOLA CHICAGO 9.24% VILLANOVA 8.85% USC 7.17% FLORIDA STATE 4.31% CREIGHTON 4.16% SYRACUSE 3.77% OREGON 2.60% UCLA 1.06% OREGON STATE 0.09% ORAL ROBERTS

30.73% GONZAGA *16.06% BAYLOR 15.52% HOUSTON 8.54% MICHIGAN 5.47% ARKANSAS 5.28% ALABAMA 3.79% USC 3.54% VILLANOVA 3.09% LOYOLA CHICAGO 2.98% FLORIDA STATE 1.63% CREIGHTON 1.29% OREGON 1.14% SYRACUSE 0.78% UCLA 0.17% OREGON STATE 0.01% ORAL ROBERTS

Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
88.14% ARKANSAS 79.15% GONZAGA 74.15% HOUSTON 71.18% LOYOLA CHICAGO 66.08% ALABAMA 66.04% BAYLOR 60.34% MICHIGAN 59.29% USC 40.71% OREGON 39.66% FLORIDA STATE 33.96% VILLANOVA 33.92% UCLA 28.82% OREGON STATE 25.85% SYRACUSE 20.85% CREIGHTON 11.86% ORAL ROBERTS	61.64% GONZAGA 54.95% HOUSTON 47.10% BAYLOR 37.50% MICHIGAN 32.84% ARKANSAS 31.17% ALABAMA 26.36% LOYOLA CHICAGO 20.63% FLORIDA STATE 19.24% VILLANOVA 18.51% USC 13.11% SYRACUSE 10.70% UCLA 10.11% CREIGHTON 9.73% OREGON 5.57% OREGON STATE 0.82% ORAL ROBERTS	44.99% GONZAGA 30.80% HOUSTON 29.90% BAYLOR 16.54% MICHIGAN 15.07% ARKANSAS 11.77% ALABAMA 9.67% LOYOLA CHICAGO 9.24% VILLANOVA 8.85% USC 7.17% FLORIDA STATE 4.31% CREIGHTON 4.16% SYRACUSE 3.77% OREGON 2.60% UCLA 1.06% OREGON STATE 0.09% ORAL ROBERTS	30.73% GONZAGA *16.06% BAYLOR 15.52% HOUSTON 8.54% MICHIGAN 5.47% ARKANSAS 5.28% ALABAMA 3.79% USC 3.54% VILLANOVA 3.09% LOYOLA CHICAGO 2.98% FLORIDA STATE 1.63% CREIGHTON 1.29% OREGON 1.14% SYRACUSE 0.78% UCLA 0.17% OREGON STATE 0.01% ORAL ROBERTS

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 21

Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

84.02% FLORIDA *82.85% GONZAGA *78.23% HOUSTON *76.28% VILLANOVA *76.06% CREIGHTON 69.87% ILLINOIS 69.15% OKLAHOMA STATE *68.47% BAYLOR 68.16% IOWA *66.98% MICHIGAN *64.76% UCLA *63.63% ALABAMA 57.66% WEST VIRGINIA 53.58% KANSAS 52.48% TEXAS TECH 51.32% COLORADO *48.68% FLORIDA STATE *47.52% ARKANSAS *46.42% USC *42.34% SYRACUSE 36.37% MARYLAND 35.24% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 33.02% LSU *31.84% OREGON 31.53% WISCONSIN *30.85% OREGON STATE *30.13% LOYOLA CHICAGO 23.94% OHIO 23.72% NORTH TEXAS 21.77% RUTGERS 17.15% OKLAHOMA *15.98% ORAL ROBERTS

*68.57% GONZAGA *55.50% HOUSTON 53.19% ILLINOIS *49.54% BAYLOR 45.30% ALABAMA *41.65% MICHIGAN 40.19% IOWA 34.21% TEXAS TECH 34.12% FLORIDA *29.94% ARKANSAS 29.24% VILLANOVA 26.03% KANSAS *24.63% UCLA 23.61% OKLAHOMA STATE 22.65% COLORADO 22.15% WEST VIRGINIA 21.30% MARYLAND *20.94% USC 20.88% FLORIDA STATE 20.22% CREIGHTON 17.47% LOYOLA CHICAGO 17.43% WISCONSIN 14.81% LSU 13.41% SYRACUSE 12.84% OREGON 8.95% RUTGERS 8.79% OKLAHOMA 8.76% ABILENE CHRISTIAN * 5.73% OREGON STATE 3.79% NORTH TEXAS 2.42% OHIO 1.73% ORAL ROBERTS

*50.77% GONZAGA *34.72% BAYLOR *34.69% HOUSTON 30.83% ILLINOIS 28.00% MICHIGAN 22.48% ALABAMA 16.97% IOWA 15.53% VILLANOVA 15.16% TEXAS TECH 12.78% COLORADO 12.57% ARKANSAS 11.77% FLORIDA 11.51% FLORIDA STATE 9.93% WEST VIRGINIA 9.31% KANSAS 9.08% WISCONSIN 8.79% CREIGHTON 8.60% OKLAHOMA STATE * 8.15% UCLA 7.72% MARYLAND 7.53% LSU 6.87% USC 6.70% LOYOLA CHICAGO 5.06% SYRACUSE 3.42% OREGON 3.39% OKLAHOMA 3.01% RUTGERS 1.83% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 1.18% OREGON STATE 1.01% NORTH TEXAS 0.47% OHIO 0.15% ORAL ROBERTS

*38.23% GONZAGA *21.17% BAYLOR 20.79% HOUSTON 17.89% ILLINOIS 13.02% MICHIGAN 9.89% IOWA 8.72% ALABAMA 6.90% TEXAS TECH 6.79% VILLANOVA 5.43% ARKANSAS 4.76% KANSAS 4.58% COLORADO 4.20% FLORIDA 4.16% WEST VIRGINIA 4.00% FLORIDA STATE 4.00% CREIGHTON 3.88% WISCONSIN 3.27% USC 3.11% OKLAHOMA STATE 2.56% LOYOLA CHICAGO 2.33% LSU 2.09% MARYLAND 2.00% UCLA 1.76% SYRACUSE 1.37% OREGON 1.37% OKLAHOMA 0.93% RUTGERS 0.27% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.24% OREGON STATE 0.20% NORTH TEXAS 0.10% OHIO 0.01% ORAL ROBERTS

26.23% GONZAGA *11.83% BAYLOR 11.10% HOUSTON 9.21% ILLINOIS 6.86% MICHIGAN 5.00% IOWA 3.89% ALABAMA 2.81% TEXAS TECH 2.65% VILLANOVA 2.09% ARKANSAS 2.07% KANSAS 1.89% COLORADO 1.60% FLORIDA STATE 1.51% CREIGHTON 1.49% WEST VIRGINIA 1.48% WISCONSIN 1.32% FLORIDA 1.31% USC 0.96% OKLAHOMA STATE 0.84% LSU 0.83% LOYOLA CHICAGO 0.67% MARYLAND 0.58% UCLA 0.52% SYRACUSE 0.45% OKLAHOMA 0.45% OREGON 0.24% RUTGERS 0.05% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.04% OREGON STATE 0.03% NORTH TEXAS 0.02% OHIO 0.00% ORAL ROBERTS

Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
84.02% FLORIDA 82.85% GONZAGA 78.23% HOUSTON 76.28% VILLANOVA 76.06% CREIGHTON 69.87% ILLINOIS 69.15% OKLAHOMA STATE 68.47% BAYLOR 68.16% IOWA 66.98% MICHIGAN 64.76% UCLA 63.63% ALABAMA 57.66% WEST VIRGINIA 53.58% KANSAS 52.48% TEXAS TECH 51.32% COLORADO 48.68% FLORIDA STATE 47.52% ARKANSAS 46.42% USC 42.34% SYRACUSE 36.37% MARYLAND 35.24% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 33.02% LSU 31.84% OREGON 31.53% WISCONSIN 30.85% OREGON STATE 30.13% LOYOLA CHICAGO 23.94% OHIO 23.72% NORTH TEXAS 21.77% RUTGERS 17.15% OKLAHOMA 15.98% ORAL ROBERTS	68.57% GONZAGA 55.50% HOUSTON 53.19% ILLINOIS 49.54% BAYLOR 45.30% ALABAMA 41.65% MICHIGAN 40.19% IOWA 34.21% TEXAS TECH 34.12% FLORIDA 29.94% ARKANSAS 29.24% VILLANOVA 26.03% KANSAS 24.63% UCLA 23.61% OKLAHOMA STATE 22.65% COLORADO 22.15% WEST VIRGINIA 21.30% MARYLAND 20.94% USC 20.88% FLORIDA STATE 20.22% CREIGHTON 17.47% LOYOLA CHICAGO 17.43% WISCONSIN 14.81% LSU 13.41% SYRACUSE 12.84% OREGON 8.95% RUTGERS 8.79% OKLAHOMA 8.76% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 5.73% OREGON STATE 3.79% NORTH TEXAS 2.42% OHIO 1.73% ORAL ROBERTS	50.77% GONZAGA 34.72% BAYLOR 34.69% HOUSTON 30.83% ILLINOIS 28.00% MICHIGAN 22.48% ALABAMA 16.97% IOWA 15.53% VILLANOVA 15.16% TEXAS TECH 12.78% COLORADO 12.57% ARKANSAS 11.77% FLORIDA 11.51% FLORIDA STATE 9.93% WEST VIRGINIA 9.31% KANSAS 9.08% WISCONSIN 8.79% CREIGHTON 8.60% OKLAHOMA STATE 8.15% UCLA 7.72% MARYLAND 7.53% LSU 6.87% USC 6.70% LOYOLA CHICAGO 5.06% SYRACUSE 3.42% OREGON 3.39% OKLAHOMA 3.01% RUTGERS 1.83% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 1.18% OREGON STATE 1.01% NORTH TEXAS 0.47% OHIO 0.15% ORAL ROBERTS	38.23% GONZAGA 21.17% BAYLOR 20.79% HOUSTON 17.89% ILLINOIS 13.02% MICHIGAN 9.89% IOWA 8.72% ALABAMA 6.90% TEXAS TECH 6.79% VILLANOVA 5.43% ARKANSAS 4.76% KANSAS 4.58% COLORADO 4.20% FLORIDA 4.16% WEST VIRGINIA 4.00% FLORIDA STATE 4.00% CREIGHTON 3.88% WISCONSIN 3.27% USC 3.11% OKLAHOMA STATE 2.56% LOYOLA CHICAGO 2.33% LSU 2.09% MARYLAND 2.00% UCLA 1.76% SYRACUSE 1.37% OREGON 1.37% OKLAHOMA 0.93% RUTGERS 0.27% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.24% OREGON STATE 0.20% NORTH TEXAS 0.10% OHIO 0.01% ORAL ROBERTS	26.23% GONZAGA *11.83% BAYLOR 11.10% HOUSTON 9.21% ILLINOIS 6.86% MICHIGAN 5.00% IOWA 3.89% ALABAMA 2.81% TEXAS TECH 2.65% VILLANOVA 2.09% ARKANSAS 2.07% KANSAS 1.89% COLORADO 1.60% FLORIDA STATE 1.51% CREIGHTON 1.49% WEST VIRGINIA 1.48% WISCONSIN 1.32% FLORIDA 1.31% USC 0.96% OKLAHOMA STATE 0.84% LSU 0.83% LOYOLA CHICAGO 0.67% MARYLAND 0.58% UCLA 0.52% SYRACUSE 0.45% OKLAHOMA 0.45% OREGON 0.24% RUTGERS 0.05% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.04% OREGON STATE 0.03% NORTH TEXAS 0.02% OHIO 0.00% ORAL ROBERTS

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 19

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*99.19% GONZAGA *97.72% BAYLOR *97.21% HOUSTON *97.07% MICHIGAN *94.73% ILLINOIS *90.91% ALABAMA 90.34% OHIO STATE *88.75% WEST VIRGINIA *87.77% IOWA *85.47% KANSAS 82.12% VIRGINIA *81.56% FLORIDA STATE *81.08% VILLANOVA 78.66% TENNESSEE *76.78% CREIGHTON 75.64% PURDUE 75.29% TEXAS *74.14% OKLAHOMA STATE *71.97% ARKANSAS *71.15% USC *69.30% COLORADO *63.76% TEXAS TECH *59.57% OKLAHOMA 57.71% BYU 57.39% SAN DIEGO STATE *57.24% OREGON *56.59% LOYOLA CHICAGO *56.48% LSU *55.82% FLORIDA 53.86% UCONN 52.92% CLEMSON 50.28% NORTH CAROLINA *49.72% WISCONSIN *47.08% RUTGERS *46.14% MARYLAND 44.18% VIRGINIA TECH 43.52% ST. BONAVENTURE 43.41% GEORGIA TECH 42.76% VCU *42.61% SYRACUSE *42.29% UCLA 40.43% MISSOURI 36.24% UTAH STATE 30.70% GEORGETOWN 28.85% DRAKE 28.03% COLGATE 25.86% LIBERTY *24.71% ABILENE CHRISTIAN *24.36% NORTH TEXAS 23.22% UC SANTA BARBARA *21.34% OREGON STATE 18.92% WINTHROP 18.44% UNC GREENSBORO *17.88% OHIO 14.53% EASTERN WASHINGTON 12.23% GRAND CANYON 11.25% MOREHEAD STATE * 9.66% ORAL ROBERTS 9.09% IONA 5.27% DREXEL 2.93% TEXAS SOUTHERN 2.79% CLEVELAND STATE 2.28% HARTFORD 0.81% NORFOLK STATE

*83.67% GONZAGA *74.85% HOUSTON *68.81% MICHIGAN *68.76% BAYLOR 68.35% ILLINOIS 63.04% IOWA *57.38% ALABAMA 55.93% OHIO STATE 52.65% KANSAS 50.40% TENNESSEE 49.92% VIRGINIA 48.86% WEST VIRGINIA *48.76% VILLANOVA *46.72% FLORIDA STATE 43.93% TEXAS 39.31% PURDUE *39.26% CREIGHTON 37.76% COLORADO *37.67% ARKANSAS 37.44% TEXAS TECH 35.68% OKLAHOMA STATE *35.35% USC 30.16% SAN DIEGO STATE 29.62% BYU 25.06% FLORIDA 23.06% UCONN *20.69% OREGON *19.41% SYRACUSE 18.80% LSU *18.79% LOYOLA CHICAGO *18.57% UCLA 18.11% MARYLAND 17.46% VIRGINIA TECH 16.40% UTAH STATE 15.68% NORTH CAROLINA 15.39% WISCONSIN 13.69% CLEMSON 12.84% VCU 12.13% ST. BONAVENTURE 12.05% GEORGIA TECH 11.13% RUTGERS 11.05% OKLAHOMA 11.01% GEORGETOWN 8.62% DRAKE 8.50% COLGATE 7.89% ABILENE CHRISTIAN * 7.33% OREGON STATE 6.66% NORTH TEXAS 6.59% LIBERTY 5.94% UC SANTA BARBARA 5.27% WINTHROP 5.22% MISSOURI 4.88% OHIO 4.51% UNC GREENSBORO 3.43% GRAND CANYON 3.38% EASTERN WASHINGTON 1.57% MOREHEAD STATE * 1.55% ORAL ROBERTS 1.45% IONA 0.80% DREXEL 0.34% CLEVELAND STATE 0.27% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.16% HARTFORD 0.07% NORFOLK STATE

*64.66% GONZAGA *52.29% HOUSTON *48.81% BAYLOR 47.45% ILLINOIS *45.68% MICHIGAN 39.11% IOWA 35.90% ALABAMA 30.78% OHIO STATE 27.37% KANSAS 22.27% TENNESSEE 21.58% TEXAS 20.93% TEXAS TECH 20.58% FLORIDA STATE *20.06% ARKANSAS 19.53% WEST VIRGINIA 19.39% VILLANOVA *16.42% USC 16.26% VIRGINIA 16.11% COLORADO 14.12% PURDUE 13.06% BYU 12.98% OKLAHOMA STATE 11.85% UCONN 11.52% SAN DIEGO STATE 11.46% FLORIDA 11.22% CREIGHTON 9.44% LOYOLA CHICAGO 9.05% LSU 8.86% OREGON 8.62% MARYLAND 8.07% NORTH CAROLINA 7.88% WISCONSIN 7.00% VIRGINIA TECH 6.92% UTAH STATE * 6.82% UCLA 6.16% SYRACUSE 5.88% CLEMSON 5.29% GEORGIA TECH 5.08% ST. BONAVENTURE 4.89% OKLAHOMA 4.63% VCU 4.47% RUTGERS 2.77% GEORGETOWN 2.66% COLGATE 2.32% DRAKE 1.93% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 1.84% MISSOURI * 1.34% OREGON STATE 1.10% LIBERTY 1.01% NORTH TEXAS 0.71% GRAND CANYON 0.70% WINTHROP 0.70% UNC GREENSBORO 0.65% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.58% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.48% OHIO 0.23% IONA 0.20% ORAL ROBERTS 0.13% MOREHEAD STATE 0.12% DREXEL 0.03% CLEVELAND STATE 0.02% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.01% HARTFORD 0.00% NORFOLK STATE

*47.89% GONZAGA *34.25% BAYLOR *32.30% HOUSTON 30.08% MICHIGAN 27.55% ILLINOIS 18.15% ALABAMA 16.78% IOWA 13.46% OHIO STATE 11.02% FLORIDA STATE 10.46% VILLANOVA 10.06% TENNESSEE 10.05% KANSAS 9.46% TEXAS 9.21% TEXAS TECH 8.73% WEST VIRGINIA 8.40% COLORADO 8.32% ARKANSAS 8.31% VIRGINIA 7.04% PURDUE 5.22% USC 5.20% CREIGHTON 5.09% BYU 4.94% SAN DIEGO STATE 4.84% OKLAHOMA STATE 4.68% UCONN 4.29% LSU 4.05% NORTH CAROLINA 4.00% FLORIDA 3.93% WISCONSIN 3.64% LOYOLA CHICAGO 3.09% MARYLAND 2.30% OREGON 2.22% SYRACUSE * 2.18% UCLA 2.16% UTAH STATE 2.09% VIRGINIA TECH 2.09% ST. BONAVENTURE 2.07% CLEMSON 1.96% OKLAHOMA 1.72% GEORGIA TECH 1.46% RUTGERS 0.96% VCU 0.91% GEORGETOWN 0.58% COLGATE 0.58% MISSOURI 0.40% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.37% DRAKE 0.25% OREGON STATE 0.25% NORTH TEXAS 0.19% LIBERTY 0.15% WINTHROP 0.15% UNC GREENSBORO 0.14% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.09% OHIO 0.07% GRAND CANYON 0.05% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.02% IONA 0.02% ORAL ROBERTS 0.01% MOREHEAD STATE 0.01% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% NORFOLK STATE

*35.50% GONZAGA *21.22% BAYLOR 19.19% HOUSTON 15.82% ILLINOIS 14.46% MICHIGAN 9.75% IOWA 7.26% ALABAMA 6.14% OHIO STATE 5.17% KANSAS 4.75% VILLANOVA 4.47% TENNESSEE 4.26% VIRGINIA 4.23% TEXAS TECH 3.99% FLORIDA STATE 3.68% WEST VIRGINIA 3.60% ARKANSAS 3.20% TEXAS 2.93% COLORADO 2.92% PURDUE 2.42% CREIGHTON 2.39% USC 2.00% SAN DIEGO STATE 1.77% OKLAHOMA STATE 1.69% NORTH CAROLINA 1.63% WISCONSIN 1.50% BYU 1.47% FLORIDA 1.40% UCONN 1.37% LOYOLA CHICAGO 1.32% LSU 0.89% OREGON 0.83% MARYLAND 0.79% OKLAHOMA 0.74% SYRACUSE 0.71% UTAH STATE 0.68% CLEMSON 0.66% VIRGINIA TECH 0.55% GEORGIA TECH 0.54% ST. BONAVENTURE 0.51% UCLA 0.44% RUTGERS 0.31% VCU 0.18% MISSOURI 0.18% GEORGETOWN 0.14% COLGATE 0.10% DRAKE 0.06% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.05% NORTH TEXAS 0.05% OREGON STATE 0.03% LIBERTY 0.03% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.03% WINTHROP 0.02% OHIO 0.02% UNC GREENSBORO 0.01% GRAND CANYON 0.01% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.00% IONA 0.00% ORAL ROBERTS 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% NORFOLK STATE

24.30% GONZAGA *12.02% BAYLOR 10.22% HOUSTON 8.12% ILLINOIS 7.82% MICHIGAN 5.03% IOWA 3.32% ALABAMA 2.49% OHIO STATE 2.32% KANSAS 1.92% VILLANOVA 1.90% VIRGINIA 1.73% TENNESSEE 1.73% TEXAS TECH 1.66% FLORIDA STATE 1.38% ARKANSAS 1.35% WEST VIRGINIA 1.25% TEXAS 1.18% COLORADO 1.07% PURDUE 0.97% CREIGHTON 0.94% USC 0.70% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.62% NORTH CAROLINA 0.60% WISCONSIN 0.55% OKLAHOMA STATE 0.52% BYU 0.49% UCONN 0.47% LSU 0.47% FLORIDA 0.44% LOYOLA CHICAGO 0.29% OREGON 0.27% OKLAHOMA 0.26% MARYLAND 0.21% SYRACUSE 0.20% UTAH STATE 0.19% CLEMSON 0.18% VIRGINIA TECH 0.16% ST. BONAVENTURE 0.15% GEORGIA TECH 0.14% UCLA 0.11% RUTGERS 0.08% VCU 0.05% MISSOURI 0.04% GEORGETOWN 0.03% COLGATE 0.02% DRAKE 0.01% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.01% NORTH TEXAS 0.01% OREGON STATE 0.00% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.00% LIBERTY 0.00% WINTHROP 0.00% OHIO 0.00% UNC GREENSBORO 0.00% GRAND CANYON 0.00% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.00% IONA 0.00% ORAL ROBERTS 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% NORFOLK STATE

Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
99.19% GONZAGA 97.72% BAYLOR 97.21% HOUSTON 97.07% MICHIGAN 94.73% ILLINOIS 90.91% ALABAMA 90.34% OHIO STATE 88.75% WEST VIRGINIA 87.77% IOWA 85.47% KANSAS 82.12% VIRGINIA 81.56% FLORIDA STATE 81.08% VILLANOVA 78.66% TENNESSEE 76.78% CREIGHTON 75.64% PURDUE 75.29% TEXAS 74.14% OKLAHOMA STATE 71.97% ARKANSAS 71.15% USC 69.30% COLORADO 63.76% TEXAS TECH 59.57% OKLAHOMA 57.71% BYU 57.39% SAN DIEGO STATE 57.24% OREGON 56.59% LOYOLA CHICAGO 56.48% LSU 55.82% FLORIDA 53.86% UCONN 52.92% CLEMSON 50.28% NORTH CAROLINA 49.72% WISCONSIN 47.08% RUTGERS 46.14% MARYLAND 44.18% VIRGINIA TECH 43.52% ST. BONAVENTURE 43.41% GEORGIA TECH 42.76% VCU 42.61% SYRACUSE 42.29% UCLA 40.43% MISSOURI 36.24% UTAH STATE 30.70% GEORGETOWN 28.85% DRAKE 28.03% COLGATE 25.86% LIBERTY 24.71% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 24.36% NORTH TEXAS 23.22% UC SANTA BARBARA 21.34% OREGON STATE 18.92% WINTHROP 18.44% UNC GREENSBORO 17.88% OHIO 14.53% EASTERN WASHINGTON 12.23% GRAND CANYON 11.25% MOREHEAD STATE 9.66% ORAL ROBERTS 9.09% IONA 5.27% DREXEL 2.93% TEXAS SOUTHERN 2.79% CLEVELAND STATE 2.28% HARTFORD 0.81% NORFOLK STATE	83.67% GONZAGA 74.85% HOUSTON 68.81% MICHIGAN 68.76% BAYLOR 68.35% ILLINOIS 63.04% IOWA 57.38% ALABAMA 55.93% OHIO STATE 52.65% KANSAS 50.40% TENNESSEE 49.92% VIRGINIA 48.86% WEST VIRGINIA 48.76% VILLANOVA 46.72% FLORIDA STATE 43.93% TEXAS 39.31% PURDUE 39.26% CREIGHTON 37.76% COLORADO 37.67% ARKANSAS 37.44% TEXAS TECH 35.68% OKLAHOMA STATE 35.35% USC 30.16% SAN DIEGO STATE 29.62% BYU 25.06% FLORIDA 23.06% UCONN 20.69% OREGON 19.41% SYRACUSE 18.80% LSU 18.79% LOYOLA CHICAGO 18.57% UCLA 18.11% MARYLAND 17.46% VIRGINIA TECH 16.40% UTAH STATE 15.68% NORTH CAROLINA 15.39% WISCONSIN 13.69% CLEMSON 12.84% VCU 12.13% ST. BONAVENTURE 12.05% GEORGIA TECH 11.13% RUTGERS 11.05% OKLAHOMA 11.01% GEORGETOWN 8.62% DRAKE 8.50% COLGATE 7.89% ABILENE CHRISTIAN * 7.33% OREGON STATE 6.66% NORTH TEXAS 6.59% LIBERTY 5.94% UC SANTA BARBARA 5.27% WINTHROP 5.22% MISSOURI 4.88% OHIO 4.51% UNC GREENSBORO 3.43% GRAND CANYON 3.38% EASTERN WASHINGTON 1.57% MOREHEAD STATE * 1.55% ORAL ROBERTS 1.45% IONA 0.80% DREXEL 0.34% CLEVELAND STATE 0.27% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.16% HARTFORD 0.07% NORFOLK STATE	64.66% GONZAGA 52.29% HOUSTON 48.81% BAYLOR 47.45% ILLINOIS 45.68% MICHIGAN 39.11% IOWA 35.90% ALABAMA 30.78% OHIO STATE 27.37% KANSAS 22.27% TENNESSEE 21.58% TEXAS 20.93% TEXAS TECH 20.58% FLORIDA STATE 20.06% ARKANSAS 19.53% WEST VIRGINIA 19.39% VILLANOVA 16.42% USC 16.26% VIRGINIA 16.11% COLORADO 14.12% PURDUE 13.06% BYU 12.98% OKLAHOMA STATE 11.85% UCONN 11.52% SAN DIEGO STATE 11.46% FLORIDA 11.22% CREIGHTON 9.44% LOYOLA CHICAGO 9.05% LSU 8.86% OREGON 8.62% MARYLAND 8.07% NORTH CAROLINA 7.88% WISCONSIN 7.00% VIRGINIA TECH 6.92% UTAH STATE * 6.82% UCLA 6.16% SYRACUSE 5.88% CLEMSON 5.29% GEORGIA TECH 5.08% ST. BONAVENTURE 4.89% OKLAHOMA 4.63% VCU 4.47% RUTGERS 2.77% GEORGETOWN 2.66% COLGATE 2.32% DRAKE 1.93% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 1.84% MISSOURI * 1.34% OREGON STATE 1.10% LIBERTY 1.01% NORTH TEXAS 0.71% GRAND CANYON 0.70% WINTHROP 0.70% UNC GREENSBORO 0.65% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.58% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.48% OHIO 0.23% IONA 0.20% ORAL ROBERTS 0.13% MOREHEAD STATE 0.12% DREXEL 0.03% CLEVELAND STATE 0.02% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.01% HARTFORD 0.00% NORFOLK STATE	47.89% GONZAGA 34.25% BAYLOR 32.30% HOUSTON 30.08% MICHIGAN 27.55% ILLINOIS 18.15% ALABAMA 16.78% IOWA 13.46% OHIO STATE 11.02% FLORIDA STATE 10.46% VILLANOVA 10.06% TENNESSEE 10.05% KANSAS 9.46% TEXAS 9.21% TEXAS TECH 8.73% WEST VIRGINIA 8.40% COLORADO 8.32% ARKANSAS 8.31% VIRGINIA 7.04% PURDUE 5.22% USC 5.20% CREIGHTON 5.09% BYU 4.94% SAN DIEGO STATE 4.84% OKLAHOMA STATE 4.68% UCONN 4.29% LSU 4.05% NORTH CAROLINA 4.00% FLORIDA 3.93% WISCONSIN 3.64% LOYOLA CHICAGO 3.09% MARYLAND 2.30% OREGON 2.22% SYRACUSE 2.18% UCLA 2.16% UTAH STATE 2.09% VIRGINIA TECH 2.09% ST. BONAVENTURE 2.07% CLEMSON 1.96% OKLAHOMA 1.72% GEORGIA TECH 1.46% RUTGERS 0.96% VCU 0.91% GEORGETOWN 0.58% COLGATE 0.58% MISSOURI 0.40% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.37% DRAKE 0.25% OREGON STATE 0.25% NORTH TEXAS 0.19% LIBERTY 0.15% WINTHROP 0.15% UNC GREENSBORO 0.14% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.09% OHIO 0.07% GRAND CANYON 0.05% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.02% IONA 0.02% ORAL ROBERTS 0.01% MOREHEAD STATE 0.01% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% NORFOLK STATE	35.50% GONZAGA 21.22% BAYLOR 19.19% HOUSTON 15.82% ILLINOIS 14.46% MICHIGAN 9.75% IOWA 7.26% ALABAMA 6.14% OHIO STATE 5.17% KANSAS 4.75% VILLANOVA 4.47% TENNESSEE 4.26% VIRGINIA 4.23% TEXAS TECH 3.99% FLORIDA STATE 3.68% WEST VIRGINIA 3.60% ARKANSAS 3.20% TEXAS 2.93% COLORADO 2.92% PURDUE 2.42% CREIGHTON 2.39% USC 2.00% SAN DIEGO STATE 1.77% OKLAHOMA STATE 1.69% NORTH CAROLINA 1.63% WISCONSIN 1.50% BYU 1.47% FLORIDA 1.40% UCONN 1.37% LOYOLA CHICAGO 1.32% LSU 0.89% OREGON 0.83% MARYLAND 0.79% OKLAHOMA 0.74% SYRACUSE 0.71% UTAH STATE 0.68% CLEMSON 0.66% VIRGINIA TECH 0.55% GEORGIA TECH 0.54% ST. BONAVENTURE 0.51% UCLA 0.44% RUTGERS 0.31% VCU 0.18% MISSOURI 0.18% GEORGETOWN 0.14% COLGATE 0.10% DRAKE 0.06% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.05% NORTH TEXAS 0.05% OREGON STATE 0.03% LIBERTY 0.03% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.03% WINTHROP 0.02% OHIO 0.02% UNC GREENSBORO 0.01% GRAND CANYON 0.01% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.00% IONA 0.00% ORAL ROBERTS 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% NORFOLK STATE	24.30% GONZAGA *12.02% BAYLOR 10.22% HOUSTON 8.12% ILLINOIS 7.82% MICHIGAN 5.03% IOWA 3.32% ALABAMA 2.49% OHIO STATE 2.32% KANSAS 1.92% VILLANOVA 1.90% VIRGINIA 1.73% TENNESSEE 1.73% TEXAS TECH 1.66% FLORIDA STATE 1.38% ARKANSAS 1.35% WEST VIRGINIA 1.25% TEXAS 1.18% COLORADO 1.07% PURDUE 0.97% CREIGHTON 0.94% USC 0.70% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.62% NORTH CAROLINA 0.60% WISCONSIN 0.55% OKLAHOMA STATE 0.52% BYU 0.49% UCONN 0.47% LSU 0.47% FLORIDA 0.44% LOYOLA CHICAGO 0.29% OREGON 0.27% OKLAHOMA 0.26% MARYLAND 0.21% SYRACUSE 0.20% UTAH STATE 0.19% CLEMSON 0.18% VIRGINIA TECH 0.16% ST. BONAVENTURE 0.15% GEORGIA TECH 0.14% UCLA 0.11% RUTGERS 0.08% VCU 0.05% MISSOURI 0.04% GEORGETOWN 0.03% COLGATE 0.02% DRAKE 0.01% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.01% NORTH TEXAS 0.01% OREGON STATE 0.00% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.00% LIBERTY 0.00% WINTHROP 0.00% OHIO 0.00% UNC GREENSBORO 0.00% GRAND CANYON 0.00% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.00% IONA 0.00% ORAL ROBERTS 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% NORFOLK STATE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 14

First Round Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

60.64% APPALACHIAN STATE *52.66% TEXAS SOUTHERN *52.47% UCLA 51.57% WICHITA STATE *48.43% DRAKE 47.53% MICHIGAN STATE 47.34% MOUNT ST. MARYS *39.36% NORFOLK STATE

*98.74% GONZAGA *97.72% BAYLOR *97.41% MICHIGAN *97.20% HOUSTON *94.75% ILLINOIS *90.90% ALABAMA 90.36% OHIO STATE *88.74% WEST VIRGINIA *87.80% IOWA *85.46% KANSAS 81.90% VIRGINIA *81.47% FLORIDA STATE *81.08% VILLANOVA 78.70% TENNESSEE *76.78% CREIGHTON 75.71% PURDUE 75.32% TEXAS *74.13% OKLAHOMA STATE *71.96% ARKANSAS *70.47% USC *69.24% COLORADO *63.75% TEXAS TECH *59.58% OKLAHOMA 59.36% BYU 57.59% SAN DIEGO STATE *57.08% OREGON *56.62% LOYOLA CHICAGO *56.37% LSU *55.38% FLORIDA 53.78% UCONN 52.73% CLEMSON 50.07% NORTH CAROLINA *49.93% WISCONSIN *47.27% RUTGERS *46.22% MARYLAND 44.62% VIRGINIA TECH 43.63% ST. BONAVENTURE 43.38% GEORGIA TECH 42.92% VCU *42.41% SYRACUSE 40.42% MISSOURI 36.25% UTAH STATE 30.76% GEORGETOWN 28.04% COLGATE 25.87% LIBERTY *24.68% ABILENE CHRISTIAN *24.29% NORTH TEXAS 23.22% UC SANTA BARBARA *21.92% UCLA *21.30% OREGON STATE 18.92% WINTHROP 18.71% MICHIGAN STATE 18.53% UNC GREENSBORO *18.10% OHIO 15.59% WICHITA STATE 14.54% EASTERN WASHINGTON 13.94% DRAKE 12.20% GRAND CANYON 11.26% MOREHEAD STATE * 9.64% ORAL ROBERTS 9.10% IONA 5.25% DREXEL 2.80% CLEVELAND STATE 2.28% HARTFORD 1.46% TEXAS SOUTHERN 1.13% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.95% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.31% NORFOLK STATE

*83.32% GONZAGA *74.88% HOUSTON *69.12% MICHIGAN *68.80% BAYLOR 68.46% ILLINOIS 63.11% IOWA *57.32% ALABAMA 56.28% OHIO STATE 52.64% KANSAS 50.43% TENNESSEE 49.65% VIRGINIA 48.86% WEST VIRGINIA *48.71% VILLANOVA *46.60% FLORIDA STATE 44.34% TEXAS *39.41% CREIGHTON 39.39% PURDUE 37.79% COLORADO *37.65% ARKANSAS 37.44% TEXAS TECH 35.67% OKLAHOMA STATE *34.97% USC 30.45% BYU 30.30% SAN DIEGO STATE 24.56% FLORIDA 23.05% UCONN *20.57% OREGON *19.26% SYRACUSE *18.75% LOYOLA CHICAGO 18.59% LSU 18.19% MARYLAND 17.58% VIRGINIA TECH 16.41% UTAH STATE 15.56% NORTH CAROLINA 15.48% WISCONSIN 13.58% CLEMSON 12.90% VCU 12.07% ST. BONAVENTURE 11.99% GEORGIA TECH 11.21% OKLAHOMA 11.20% RUTGERS 11.08% GEORGETOWN * 9.51% UCLA 8.50% COLGATE 8.01% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 7.69% MICHIGAN STATE * 7.30% OREGON STATE 6.64% NORTH TEXAS 6.60% LIBERTY 5.97% UC SANTA BARBARA 5.33% MISSOURI 5.26% WINTHROP 4.96% OHIO 4.85% WICHITA STATE 4.53% UNC GREENSBORO 4.15% DRAKE 3.42% GRAND CANYON 3.38% EASTERN WASHINGTON 1.58% MOREHEAD STATE * 1.57% ORAL ROBERTS 1.45% IONA 0.80% DREXEL 0.34% CLEVELAND STATE 0.16% HARTFORD 0.13% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.12% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.09% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.03% NORFOLK STATE

*64.49% GONZAGA *52.36% HOUSTON *48.82% BAYLOR 47.55% ILLINOIS *46.04% MICHIGAN 39.22% IOWA 35.92% ALABAMA 31.01% OHIO STATE 27.34% KANSAS 22.26% TENNESSEE 21.80% TEXAS 20.96% TEXAS TECH 20.39% FLORIDA STATE *20.08% ARKANSAS 19.49% WEST VIRGINIA 19.38% VILLANOVA *16.21% USC 16.17% VIRGINIA 16.04% COLORADO 14.17% PURDUE 13.43% BYU 12.96% OKLAHOMA STATE 11.88% UCONN 11.58% SAN DIEGO STATE 11.32% CREIGHTON 11.10% FLORIDA 9.42% LOYOLA CHICAGO 8.97% LSU 8.81% OREGON 8.70% MARYLAND 7.98% NORTH CAROLINA 7.93% WISCONSIN 7.04% VIRGINIA TECH 6.94% UTAH STATE 6.08% SYRACUSE 5.83% CLEMSON 5.26% GEORGIA TECH 5.08% ST. BONAVENTURE 4.97% OKLAHOMA 4.67% VCU 4.51% RUTGERS * 3.45% UCLA 2.77% GEORGETOWN 2.66% COLGATE 2.62% MICHIGAN STATE 1.96% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 1.88% MISSOURI 1.36% WICHITA STATE * 1.33% OREGON STATE 1.11% DRAKE 1.10% LIBERTY 1.00% NORTH TEXAS 0.71% GRAND CANYON 0.70% WINTHROP 0.70% UNC GREENSBORO 0.66% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.58% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.50% OHIO 0.24% IONA 0.20% ORAL ROBERTS 0.13% MOREHEAD STATE 0.12% DREXEL 0.03% CLEVELAND STATE 0.01% HARTFORD 0.01% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.01% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.01% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.00% NORFOLK STATE

*47.78% GONZAGA *34.26% BAYLOR *32.34% HOUSTON 30.36% MICHIGAN 27.63% ILLINOIS 18.13% ALABAMA 16.88% IOWA 13.58% OHIO STATE 10.89% FLORIDA STATE 10.46% VILLANOVA 10.06% KANSAS 10.05% TENNESSEE 9.55% TEXAS 9.23% TEXAS TECH 8.69% WEST VIRGINIA 8.35% COLORADO 8.33% ARKANSAS 8.24% VIRGINIA 7.08% PURDUE 5.25% CREIGHTON 5.22% BYU 5.15% USC 4.96% SAN DIEGO STATE 4.83% OKLAHOMA STATE 4.68% UCONN 4.25% LSU 4.00% NORTH CAROLINA 3.97% WISCONSIN 3.83% FLORIDA 3.62% LOYOLA CHICAGO 3.12% MARYLAND 2.29% OREGON 2.17% SYRACUSE 2.17% UTAH STATE 2.10% VIRGINIA TECH 2.09% ST. BONAVENTURE 2.05% CLEMSON 2.00% OKLAHOMA 1.71% GEORGIA TECH 1.47% RUTGERS * 1.09% UCLA 0.98% VCU 0.91% GEORGETOWN 0.77% MICHIGAN STATE 0.59% MISSOURI 0.59% COLGATE 0.41% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.25% OREGON STATE 0.25% NORTH TEXAS 0.23% WICHITA STATE 0.19% LIBERTY 0.18% DRAKE 0.15% WINTHROP 0.15% UNC GREENSBORO 0.14% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.10% OHIO 0.07% GRAND CANYON 0.06% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.02% IONA 0.02% ORAL ROBERTS 0.01% MOREHEAD STATE 0.01% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.00% NORFOLK STATE

*35.41% GONZAGA *21.21% BAYLOR 19.22% HOUSTON 15.88% ILLINOIS 14.63% MICHIGAN 9.80% IOWA 7.25% ALABAMA 6.19% OHIO STATE 5.16% KANSAS 4.74% VILLANOVA 4.46% TENNESSEE 4.23% TEXAS TECH 4.20% VIRGINIA 3.93% FLORIDA STATE 3.66% WEST VIRGINIA 3.60% ARKANSAS 3.23% TEXAS 2.93% PURDUE 2.91% COLORADO 2.44% CREIGHTON 2.35% USC 2.00% SAN DIEGO STATE 1.76% OKLAHOMA STATE 1.66% NORTH CAROLINA 1.64% WISCONSIN 1.54% BYU 1.41% UCONN 1.38% FLORIDA 1.37% LOYOLA CHICAGO 1.31% LSU 0.89% OREGON 0.84% MARYLAND 0.80% OKLAHOMA 0.73% SYRACUSE 0.71% UTAH STATE 0.67% CLEMSON 0.66% VIRGINIA TECH 0.54% GEORGIA TECH 0.54% ST. BONAVENTURE 0.45% RUTGERS 0.32% VCU 0.25% UCLA 0.19% MISSOURI 0.18% GEORGETOWN 0.16% MICHIGAN STATE 0.14% COLGATE 0.06% WICHITA STATE 0.06% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.05% NORTH TEXAS 0.05% DRAKE 0.05% OREGON STATE 0.03% LIBERTY 0.03% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.03% WINTHROP 0.02% OHIO 0.02% UNC GREENSBORO 0.01% GRAND CANYON 0.01% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.00% IONA 0.00% ORAL ROBERTS 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.00% NORFOLK STATE

24.24% GONZAGA *12.01% BAYLOR 10.24% HOUSTON 8.15% ILLINOIS 7.93% MICHIGAN 5.06% IOWA 3.31% ALABAMA 2.51% OHIO STATE 2.32% KANSAS 1.91% VILLANOVA 1.87% VIRGINIA 1.73% TEXAS TECH 1.72% TENNESSEE 1.63% FLORIDA STATE 1.38% ARKANSAS 1.34% WEST VIRGINIA 1.26% TEXAS 1.17% COLORADO 1.07% PURDUE 0.98% CREIGHTON 0.92% USC 0.70% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.61% NORTH CAROLINA 0.60% WISCONSIN 0.55% OKLAHOMA STATE 0.53% BYU 0.49% UCONN 0.47% LSU 0.44% LOYOLA CHICAGO 0.44% FLORIDA 0.29% OREGON 0.27% OKLAHOMA 0.27% MARYLAND 0.21% SYRACUSE 0.20% UTAH STATE 0.19% CLEMSON 0.18% VIRGINIA TECH 0.16% ST. BONAVENTURE 0.15% GEORGIA TECH 0.12% RUTGERS 0.08% VCU 0.07% UCLA 0.05% MISSOURI 0.04% MICHIGAN STATE 0.04% GEORGETOWN 0.03% COLGATE 0.01% WICHITA STATE 0.01% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.01% DRAKE 0.01% NORTH TEXAS 0.01% OREGON STATE 0.00% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.00% LIBERTY 0.00% WINTHROP 0.00% OHIO 0.00% UNC GREENSBORO 0.00% GRAND CANYON 0.00% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.00% IONA 0.00% ORAL ROBERTS 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.00% NORFOLK STATE

First Round	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
60.64% APPALACHIAN STATE 52.66% TEXAS SOUTHERN 52.47% UCLA 51.57% WICHITA STATE 48.43% DRAKE 47.53% MICHIGAN STATE 47.34% MOUNT ST. MARYS 39.36% NORFOLK STATE	98.74% GONZAGA 97.72% BAYLOR 97.41% MICHIGAN 97.20% HOUSTON 94.75% ILLINOIS 90.90% ALABAMA 90.36% OHIO STATE 88.74% WEST VIRGINIA 87.80% IOWA 85.46% KANSAS 81.90% VIRGINIA 81.47% FLORIDA STATE 81.08% VILLANOVA 78.70% TENNESSEE 76.78% CREIGHTON 75.71% PURDUE 75.32% TEXAS 74.13% OKLAHOMA STATE 71.96% ARKANSAS 70.47% USC 69.24% COLORADO 63.75% TEXAS TECH 59.58% OKLAHOMA 59.36% BYU 57.59% SAN DIEGO STATE 57.08% OREGON 56.62% LOYOLA CHICAGO 56.37% LSU 55.38% FLORIDA 53.78% UCONN 52.73% CLEMSON 50.07% NORTH CAROLINA 49.93% WISCONSIN 47.27% RUTGERS 46.22% MARYLAND 44.62% VIRGINIA TECH 43.63% ST. BONAVENTURE 43.38% GEORGIA TECH 42.92% VCU 42.41% SYRACUSE 40.42% MISSOURI 36.25% UTAH STATE 30.76% GEORGETOWN 28.04% COLGATE 25.87% LIBERTY 24.68% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 24.29% NORTH TEXAS 23.22% UC SANTA BARBARA 21.92% UCLA 21.30% OREGON STATE 18.92% WINTHROP 18.71% MICHIGAN STATE 18.53% UNC GREENSBORO 18.10% OHIO 15.59% WICHITA STATE 14.54% EASTERN WASHINGTON 13.94% DRAKE 12.20% GRAND CANYON 11.26% MOREHEAD STATE 9.64% ORAL ROBERTS 9.10% IONA 5.25% DREXEL 2.80% CLEVELAND STATE 2.28% HARTFORD 1.46% TEXAS SOUTHERN 1.13% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.95% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.31% NORFOLK STATE	83.32% GONZAGA 74.88% HOUSTON 69.12% MICHIGAN 68.80% BAYLOR 68.46% ILLINOIS 63.11% IOWA 57.32% ALABAMA 56.28% OHIO STATE 52.64% KANSAS 50.43% TENNESSEE 49.65% VIRGINIA 48.86% WEST VIRGINIA 48.71% VILLANOVA 46.60% FLORIDA STATE 44.34% TEXAS 39.41% CREIGHTON 39.39% PURDUE 37.79% COLORADO 37.65% ARKANSAS 37.44% TEXAS TECH 35.67% OKLAHOMA STATE 34.97% USC 30.45% BYU 30.30% SAN DIEGO STATE 24.56% FLORIDA 23.05% UCONN 20.57% OREGON 19.26% SYRACUSE 18.75% LOYOLA CHICAGO 18.59% LSU 18.19% MARYLAND 17.58% VIRGINIA TECH 16.41% UTAH STATE 15.56% NORTH CAROLINA 15.48% WISCONSIN 13.58% CLEMSON 12.90% VCU 12.07% ST. BONAVENTURE 11.99% GEORGIA TECH 11.21% OKLAHOMA 11.20% RUTGERS 11.08% GEORGETOWN 9.51% UCLA 8.50% COLGATE 8.01% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 7.69% MICHIGAN STATE * 7.30% OREGON STATE 6.64% NORTH TEXAS 6.60% LIBERTY 5.97% UC SANTA BARBARA 5.33% MISSOURI 5.26% WINTHROP 4.96% OHIO 4.85% WICHITA STATE 4.53% UNC GREENSBORO 4.15% DRAKE 3.42% GRAND CANYON 3.38% EASTERN WASHINGTON 1.58% MOREHEAD STATE * 1.57% ORAL ROBERTS 1.45% IONA 0.80% DREXEL 0.34% CLEVELAND STATE 0.16% HARTFORD 0.13% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.12% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.09% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.03% NORFOLK STATE	64.49% GONZAGA 52.36% HOUSTON 48.82% BAYLOR 47.55% ILLINOIS 46.04% MICHIGAN 39.22% IOWA 35.92% ALABAMA 31.01% OHIO STATE 27.34% KANSAS 22.26% TENNESSEE 21.80% TEXAS 20.96% TEXAS TECH 20.39% FLORIDA STATE 20.08% ARKANSAS 19.49% WEST VIRGINIA 19.38% VILLANOVA 16.21% USC 16.17% VIRGINIA 16.04% COLORADO 14.17% PURDUE 13.43% BYU 12.96% OKLAHOMA STATE 11.88% UCONN 11.58% SAN DIEGO STATE 11.32% CREIGHTON 11.10% FLORIDA 9.42% LOYOLA CHICAGO 8.97% LSU 8.81% OREGON 8.70% MARYLAND 7.98% NORTH CAROLINA 7.93% WISCONSIN 7.04% VIRGINIA TECH 6.94% UTAH STATE 6.08% SYRACUSE 5.83% CLEMSON 5.26% GEORGIA TECH 5.08% ST. BONAVENTURE 4.97% OKLAHOMA 4.67% VCU 4.51% RUTGERS * 3.45% UCLA 2.77% GEORGETOWN 2.66% COLGATE 2.62% MICHIGAN STATE 1.96% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 1.88% MISSOURI 1.36% WICHITA STATE * 1.33% OREGON STATE 1.11% DRAKE 1.10% LIBERTY 1.00% NORTH TEXAS 0.71% GRAND CANYON 0.70% WINTHROP 0.70% UNC GREENSBORO 0.66% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.58% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.50% OHIO 0.24% IONA 0.20% ORAL ROBERTS 0.13% MOREHEAD STATE 0.12% DREXEL 0.03% CLEVELAND STATE 0.01% HARTFORD 0.01% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.01% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.01% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.00% NORFOLK STATE	47.78% GONZAGA 34.26% BAYLOR 32.34% HOUSTON 30.36% MICHIGAN 27.63% ILLINOIS 18.13% ALABAMA 16.88% IOWA 13.58% OHIO STATE 10.89% FLORIDA STATE 10.46% VILLANOVA 10.06% KANSAS 10.05% TENNESSEE 9.55% TEXAS 9.23% TEXAS TECH 8.69% WEST VIRGINIA 8.35% COLORADO 8.33% ARKANSAS 8.24% VIRGINIA 7.08% PURDUE 5.25% CREIGHTON 5.22% BYU 5.15% USC 4.96% SAN DIEGO STATE 4.83% OKLAHOMA STATE 4.68% UCONN 4.25% LSU 4.00% NORTH CAROLINA 3.97% WISCONSIN 3.83% FLORIDA 3.62% LOYOLA CHICAGO 3.12% MARYLAND 2.29% OREGON 2.17% SYRACUSE 2.17% UTAH STATE 2.10% VIRGINIA TECH 2.09% ST. BONAVENTURE 2.05% CLEMSON 2.00% OKLAHOMA 1.71% GEORGIA TECH 1.47% RUTGERS 1.09% UCLA 0.98% VCU 0.91% GEORGETOWN 0.77% MICHIGAN STATE 0.59% MISSOURI 0.59% COLGATE 0.41% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.25% OREGON STATE 0.25% NORTH TEXAS 0.23% WICHITA STATE 0.19% LIBERTY 0.18% DRAKE 0.15% WINTHROP 0.15% UNC GREENSBORO 0.14% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.10% OHIO 0.07% GRAND CANYON 0.06% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.02% IONA 0.02% ORAL ROBERTS 0.01% MOREHEAD STATE 0.01% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.00% NORFOLK STATE	35.41% GONZAGA 21.21% BAYLOR 19.22% HOUSTON 15.88% ILLINOIS 14.63% MICHIGAN 9.80% IOWA 7.25% ALABAMA 6.19% OHIO STATE 5.16% KANSAS 4.74% VILLANOVA 4.46% TENNESSEE 4.23% TEXAS TECH 4.20% VIRGINIA 3.93% FLORIDA STATE 3.66% WEST VIRGINIA 3.60% ARKANSAS 3.23% TEXAS 2.93% PURDUE 2.91% COLORADO 2.44% CREIGHTON 2.35% USC 2.00% SAN DIEGO STATE 1.76% OKLAHOMA STATE 1.66% NORTH CAROLINA 1.64% WISCONSIN 1.54% BYU 1.41% UCONN 1.38% FLORIDA 1.37% LOYOLA CHICAGO 1.31% LSU 0.89% OREGON 0.84% MARYLAND 0.80% OKLAHOMA 0.73% SYRACUSE 0.71% UTAH STATE 0.67% CLEMSON 0.66% VIRGINIA TECH 0.54% GEORGIA TECH 0.54% ST. BONAVENTURE 0.45% RUTGERS 0.32% VCU 0.25% UCLA 0.19% MISSOURI 0.18% GEORGETOWN 0.16% MICHIGAN STATE 0.14% COLGATE 0.06% WICHITA STATE 0.06% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.05% NORTH TEXAS 0.05% DRAKE 0.05% OREGON STATE 0.03% LIBERTY 0.03% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.03% WINTHROP 0.02% OHIO 0.02% UNC GREENSBORO 0.01% GRAND CANYON 0.01% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.00% IONA 0.00% ORAL ROBERTS 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.00% NORFOLK STATE	24.24% GONZAGA *12.01% BAYLOR 10.24% HOUSTON 8.15% ILLINOIS 7.93% MICHIGAN 5.06% IOWA 3.31% ALABAMA 2.51% OHIO STATE 2.32% KANSAS 1.91% VILLANOVA 1.87% VIRGINIA 1.73% TEXAS TECH 1.72% TENNESSEE 1.63% FLORIDA STATE 1.38% ARKANSAS 1.34% WEST VIRGINIA 1.26% TEXAS 1.17% COLORADO 1.07% PURDUE 0.98% CREIGHTON 0.92% USC 0.70% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.61% NORTH CAROLINA 0.60% WISCONSIN 0.55% OKLAHOMA STATE 0.53% BYU 0.49% UCONN 0.47% LSU 0.44% LOYOLA CHICAGO 0.44% FLORIDA 0.29% OREGON 0.27% OKLAHOMA 0.27% MARYLAND 0.21% SYRACUSE 0.20% UTAH STATE 0.19% CLEMSON 0.18% VIRGINIA TECH 0.16% ST. BONAVENTURE 0.15% GEORGIA TECH 0.12% RUTGERS 0.08% VCU 0.07% UCLA 0.05% MISSOURI 0.04% MICHIGAN STATE 0.04% GEORGETOWN 0.03% COLGATE 0.01% WICHITA STATE 0.01% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.01% DRAKE 0.01% NORTH TEXAS 0.01% OREGON STATE 0.00% UC SANTA BARBARA 0.00% LIBERTY 0.00% WINTHROP 0.00% OHIO 0.00% UNC GREENSBORO 0.00% GRAND CANYON 0.00% EASTERN WASHINGTON 0.00% IONA 0.00% ORAL ROBERTS 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% DREXEL 0.00% CLEVELAND STATE 0.00% APPALACHIAN STATE 0.00% HARTFORD 0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN 0.00% MOUNT ST. MARYS 0.00% NORFOLK STATE

Selection Notes With all of the oddities this season, this will be more of an observation than a critique. What, Colgate finished #9 in NET, #16 in my main rankings, and #15 in my blended rankings - yet was dropped all the way to a #14 seed? Hard to compare a team that played 15 games, all within a conference that saw very little outside competition.

As noted in 2019, the overall seedings seemed to follow my blended ("pseudopoll") rankings the best, including better than the NET. By that system, the only switch in the at-large selections would be been selecting Louisville instead of Utah State. But Utah State did pass the overall "eye test" better than Louisville, ranking #44 in the score-based ranking vs. #66 for Louisville. It's also fair to note the Utah State had a significantly better NET ranking (#39 vs. #56), though if following NET rankings directly, Michigan State (#70) and Wichita State (#72) would have been replaced by Saint Louis (#43) and Duke (#49).

* Denotes team advanced Return to ratings main page

Note: if you use any of the facts, equations, or mathematical principles introduced here, you must give me credit.