Number of Upsets

Are there more upsets in the NCAA tournament than if these were just regular season games? For this analysis, "upset" is defined by a team with less than 50% chance (as calculated below) winning its game (generally the same as the betting underdog) rather than based on committee seeding. (Counting by seeds, there would have been one additional upset than the numbers below report.)

  1. First Four: 1.6 predicted, 4 actual
  2. First Round: 7.5 predicted, 7 actual
  3. Second Round: 4.8 predicted, 3 actual
  4. Sweet Sixteen: 2.7 predicted, 1 actual
  5. Elite Eight: 1.5 predicted, 1 actual
  6. Final Four: 0.7 predicted, 1 actual
  7. Championship: 0.5 predicted, 1 actual
  8. Grand Total: 19.3 predicted, 18 actual
For this tournament, the number of upsets was less than the expected number of upsets by 1.3, which translates to a 0.3-sigma result (38th percentile on a bell curve).

Odds of Advancing to Round, April 5

Champion 
 50.17% WISCONSIN
*49.83% DUKE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 30

Finals Champion 
*69.39% DUKE
 63.08% KENTUCKY
*36.92% WISCONSIN
 30.61% MICHIGAN STATE

 43.33% KENTUCKY
*28.63% DUKE
 20.83% WISCONSIN
  7.21% MICHIGAN STATE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 28

Final Four Finals Champion 
*80.25% KENTUCKY
*61.21% DUKE
 54.36% ARIZONA
*52.18% MICHIGAN STATE
 47.82% LOUISVILLE
*45.64% WISCONSIN
 38.79% GONZAGA
 19.75% NOTRE DAME

 50.55% KENTUCKY
*42.47% DUKE
 24.64% ARIZONA
 22.79% GONZAGA
*18.83% WISCONSIN
 18.62% MICHIGAN STATE
 16.12% LOUISVILLE
  5.97% NOTRE DAME

 37.57% KENTUCKY
*17.36% DUKE
 15.95% ARIZONA
 11.43% WISCONSIN
  6.97% GONZAGA
  4.52% MICHIGAN STATE
  3.65% LOUISVILLE
  2.57% NOTRE DAME

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 23

Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*85.23% KENTUCKY
*80.58% ARIZONA
*75.14% GONZAGA
*65.83% WISCONSIN
*60.48% LOUISVILLE
*58.63% DUKE
*54.66% NOTRE DAME
 53.28% OKLAHOMA
*46.72% MICHIGAN STATE
 45.34% WICHITA STATE
 41.37% UTAH
 39.52% NC STATE
 34.17% NORTH CAROLINA
 24.86% UCLA
 19.42% XAVIER
 14.77% WEST VIRGINIA

*67.87% KENTUCKY
 48.85% ARIZONA
*38.94% DUKE
*33.45% WISCONSIN
 32.04% GONZAGA
 31.85% OKLAHOMA
 27.68% LOUISVILLE
*26.45% MICHIGAN STATE
 24.19% UTAH
 15.07% NOTRE DAME
 14.03% NC STATE
 12.22% NORTH CAROLINA
 10.93% WICHITA STATE
  6.12% WEST VIRGINIA
  5.47% XAVIER
  4.84% UCLA

 42.03% KENTUCKY
*27.14% DUKE
 26.46% ARIZONA
 19.07% GONZAGA
*16.44% WISCONSIN
 14.94% UTAH
 13.26% OKLAHOMA
 10.18% MICHIGAN STATE
 10.02% LOUISVILLE
  4.90% NOTRE DAME
  4.23% NORTH CAROLINA
  3.79% NC STATE
  3.13% WICHITA STATE
  1.61% UCLA
  1.46% WEST VIRGINIA
  1.35% XAVIER

 30.63% KENTUCKY
 17.89% ARIZONA
*12.23% DUKE
 10.31% WISCONSIN
  6.64% GONZAGA
  5.52% UTAH
  4.05% OKLAHOMA
  2.83% MICHIGAN STATE
  2.59% LOUISVILLE
  2.16% NOTRE DAME
  1.99% NORTH CAROLINA
  1.24% WICHITA STATE
  0.70% NC STATE
  0.50% WEST VIRGINIA
  0.47% XAVIER
  0.24% UCLA

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 21

Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*91.81% KENTUCKY
*86.60% WISCONSIN
 83.31% VILLANOVA
*80.13% DUKE
*74.81% UCLA
*72.96% OKLAHOMA
*72.56% ARIZONA
*70.49% XAVIER
 67.36% VIRGINIA
*66.98% UTAH
*66.73% NORTH CAROLINA
 57.90% KANSAS
*57.67% GONZAGA
*56.37% NOTRE DAME
*55.02% WEST VIRGINIA
*55.00% LOUISVILLE
 45.00% NORTHERN IOWA
 44.98% MARYLAND
 43.63% BUTLER
 42.33% IOWA
*42.10% WICHITA STATE
 33.27% ARKANSAS
 33.02% GEORGETOWN
*32.64% MICHIGAN STATE
 29.51% GEORGIA STATE
 27.44% OHIO STATE
 27.04% DAYTON
 25.19% UAB
 19.87% SAN DIEGO STATE
*16.69% NC STATE
 13.40% OREGON
  8.19% CINCINNATI

*80.16% KENTUCKY
 64.43% VILLANOVA
*62.45% WISCONSIN
*59.97% ARIZONA
*50.73% DUKE
 45.75% VIRGINIA
*45.18% GONZAGA
 32.36% UTAH
 31.55% OKLAHOMA
 31.42% KANSAS
 30.68% IOWA
*29.23% NOTRE DAME
 25.39% NORTH CAROLINA
 21.39% UCLA
 19.85% BUTLER
 19.51% WICHITA STATE
 18.75% XAVIER
 17.54% OHIO STATE
*16.73% LOUISVILLE
*16.72% MICHIGAN STATE
 11.91% NORTHERN IOWA
 10.69% GEORGETOWN
  9.80% WEST VIRGINIA
  8.02% ARKANSAS
  6.93% NC STATE
  6.75% MARYLAND
  6.22% SAN DIEGO STATE
  5.98% DAYTON
  4.14% OREGON
  3.74% GEORGIA STATE
  3.29% CINCINNATI
  2.75% UAB

*64.26% KENTUCKY
 41.95% VILLANOVA
*36.75% WISCONSIN
 36.36% ARIZONA
*35.06% DUKE
 24.64% VIRGINIA
 20.70% GONZAGA
 20.04% UTAH
 13.26% OKLAHOMA
 11.81% IOWA
 10.70% NORTH CAROLINA
  9.74% KANSAS
  8.72% NOTRE DAME
  6.71% OHIO STATE
  6.48% LOUISVILLE
* 6.25% MICHIGAN STATE
  5.80% XAVIER
  5.00% BUTLER
  4.96% UCLA
  4.90% WICHITA STATE
  4.84% GEORGETOWN
  4.07% NORTHERN IOWA
  3.99% WEST VIRGINIA
  2.42% MARYLAND
  2.35% SAN DIEGO STATE
  2.21% ARKANSAS
  2.02% NC STATE
  1.32% DAYTON
  0.97% CINCINNATI
  0.88% OREGON
  0.59% GEORGIA STATE
  0.23% UAB

 41.91% KENTUCKY
 27.34% VILLANOVA
 19.54% ARIZONA
*18.97% WISCONSIN
*18.97% DUKE
 14.51% VIRGINIA
  9.29% UTAH
  8.90% GONZAGA
  6.19% OKLAHOMA
  4.24% IOWA
  3.80% NORTH CAROLINA
  3.58% KANSAS
  3.09% NOTRE DAME
  2.61% MICHIGAN STATE
  2.52% LOUISVILLE
  2.19% OHIO STATE
  1.52% XAVIER
  1.50% BUTLER
  1.47% GEORGETOWN
  1.46% WICHITA STATE
  1.40% NORTHERN IOWA
  1.06% UCLA
  1.03% WEST VIRGINIA
  0.59% NC STATE
  0.56% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.54% MARYLAND
  0.49% ARKANSAS
  0.33% DAYTON
  0.17% CINCINNATI
  0.15% OREGON
  0.08% GEORGIA STATE
  0.02% UAB

 28.87% KENTUCKY
 13.76% VILLANOVA
 11.98% ARIZONA
 11.22% WISCONSIN
* 8.49% DUKE
  6.37% VIRGINIA
  3.46% UTAH
  3.04% GONZAGA
  2.00% OKLAHOMA
  1.58% NORTH CAROLINA
  1.44% KANSAS
  1.20% NOTRE DAME
  1.18% IOWA
  0.84% OHIO STATE
  0.73% MICHIGAN STATE
  0.65% LOUISVILLE
  0.50% BUTLER
  0.48% WICHITA STATE
  0.47% XAVIER
  0.34% GEORGETOWN
  0.31% NORTHERN IOWA
  0.30% WEST VIRGINIA
  0.16% UCLA
  0.13% MARYLAND
  0.13% ARKANSAS
  0.11% NC STATE
  0.10% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.05% DAYTON
  0.03% CINCINNATI
  0.03% OREGON
  0.01% GEORGIA STATE
  0.00% UAB

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 19

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*99.70% KENTUCKY
*99.27% ARIZONA
*98.19% VILLANOVA
*97.06% WISCONSIN
*97.01% DUKE
*95.92% VIRGINIA
*94.42% GONZAGA
*92.23% OKLAHOMA
 91.25% IOWA STATE
*89.56% NOTRE DAME
*86.95% NORTH CAROLINA
*86.50% GEORGETOWN
*85.78% KANSAS
*83.59% LOUISVILLE
*80.00% UTAH
 79.85% BAYLOR
*79.48% NORTHERN IOWA
*77.76% ARKANSAS
*68.18% OHIO STATE
*68.02% MARYLAND
*66.97% WEST VIRGINIA
*64.23% MICHIGAN STATE
 62.38% PROVIDENCE
*62.31% WICHITA STATE
*58.45% XAVIER
*57.64% IOWA
 57.13% OKLAHOMA ST
 56.58% PURDUE
*55.32% NC STATE
 55.03% SMU
*54.42% SAN DIEGO STATE
 52.68% TEXAS
*47.32% BUTLER
 45.58% ST. JOHN'S
*44.97% UCLA
 44.68% LSU
*43.42% CINCINNATI
*42.87% OREGON
 42.36% DAVIDSON
 41.55% OLE MISS
 37.69% INDIANA
*37.62% DAYTON
 35.77% GEORGIA
 33.03% BUFFALO
 31.98% VALPARAISO
 31.82% VCU
 22.24% WOFFORD
 20.52% WYOMING
*20.15% GEORGIA STATE
 20.00% SF AUSTIN
 16.41% UC IRVINE
 14.22% NEW MEXICO ST
 13.50% E WASHINGTON
 13.05% HARVARD
 10.44% NORTHEASTERN
* 8.75% UAB
  7.77% ALBANY
  5.58% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  4.08% BELMONT
  2.99% ROBERT MORRIS
  2.94% COAST CAROLINA
  1.81% LAFAYETTE
  0.73% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.30% HAMPTON

*91.21% KENTUCKY
*82.96% WISCONSIN
 81.37% VILLANOVA
*79.88% DUKE
*77.13% ARIZONA
 70.60% VIRGINIA
 64.90% IOWA STATE
*64.58% OKLAHOMA
*63.14% GONZAGA
*62.60% NORTH CAROLINA
*56.51% UTAH
 53.88% KANSAS
*53.56% LOUISVILLE
*52.78% NOTRE DAME
 52.51% BAYLOR
*40.89% WEST VIRGINIA
 37.60% NORTHERN IOWA
 34.17% GEORGETOWN
 34.14% MARYLAND
 29.79% ARKANSAS
*29.35% WICHITA STATE
*25.70% XAVIER
 24.67% TEXAS
 23.65% PROVIDENCE
 22.49% IOWA
*21.11% MICHIGAN STATE
 20.97% BUTLER
 19.35% SMU
 18.36% OHIO STATE
 15.05% OLE MISS
 14.57% BUFFALO
*13.90% UCLA
 13.67% DAVIDSON
 13.46% INDIANA
 11.38% SAN DIEGO STATE
*11.01% NC STATE
 10.40% VALPARAISO
 10.40% OKLAHOMA ST
 10.31% DAYTON
  8.23% ST. JOHN'S
  8.00% SF AUSTIN
  7.73% GEORGIA
  7.40% LSU
  6.74% GEORGIA STATE
  6.04% OREGON
  5.58% PURDUE
  4.69% UC IRVINE
  4.47% VCU
  4.15% WYOMING
  4.07% HARVARD
  3.54% WOFFORD
  3.31% NEW MEXICO ST
  3.19% CINCINNATI
  1.86% UAB
  1.58% NORTHEASTERN
  1.47% ALBANY
  1.31% E WASHINGTON
  0.70% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  0.60% COAST CAROLINA
  0.57% BELMONT
  0.51% ROBERT MORRIS
  0.23% LAFAYETTE
  0.04% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.03% HAMPTON

*82.03% KENTUCKY
 62.30% VILLANOVA
*60.65% WISCONSIN
*60.42% ARIZONA
*52.38% DUKE
 48.35% VIRGINIA
*38.14% GONZAGA
 34.75% IOWA STATE
*30.01% NOTRE DAME
 29.19% KANSAS
 28.99% OKLAHOMA
 28.05% UTAH
 25.14% NORTH CAROLINA
*18.63% LOUISVILLE
 17.83% BAYLOR
 13.45% WICHITA STATE
 12.17% TEXAS
 11.53% GEORGETOWN
 10.54% IOWA
*10.47% MICHIGAN STATE
 10.44% OHIO STATE
 10.40% NORTHERN IOWA
  9.80% BUTLER
  7.62% ARKANSAS
  7.12% PROVIDENCE
  6.96% WEST VIRGINIA
  6.68% SMU
  6.09% XAVIER
  5.42% DAVIDSON
  4.90% NC STATE
  4.80% MARYLAND
  4.57% INDIANA
  4.19% UCLA
  3.89% OKLAHOMA ST
  3.76% SAN DIEGO STATE
  2.92% LSU
  2.79% PURDUE
  2.78% GEORGIA
  2.70% OLE MISS
  2.41% ST. JOHN'S
  2.12% DAYTON
  1.88% OREGON
  1.74% VCU
  1.72% SF AUSTIN
  1.39% CINCINNATI
  1.32% BUFFALO
  0.78% GEORGIA STATE
  0.72% VALPARAISO
  0.57% NEW MEXICO ST
  0.47% UC IRVINE
  0.42% HARVARD
  0.37% WYOMING
  0.32% WOFFORD
  0.23% NORTHEASTERN
  0.21% UAB
  0.10% ALBANY
  0.10% E WASHINGTON
  0.07% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  0.07% COAST CAROLINA
  0.07% BELMONT
  0.04% ROBERT MORRIS
  0.02% LAFAYETTE
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% HAMPTON

*67.26% KENTUCKY
 38.26% VILLANOVA
 37.06% ARIZONA
*35.17% WISCONSIN
*34.19% DUKE
 27.97% VIRGINIA
 18.40% GONZAGA
 16.36% UTAH
 15.82% IOWA STATE
 13.40% OKLAHOMA
 10.55% NORTH CAROLINA
  8.79% NOTRE DAME
  8.44% KANSAS
  7.32% LOUISVILLE
  7.01% BAYLOR
  4.77% GEORGETOWN
* 4.08% MICHIGAN STATE
  3.96% OHIO STATE
  3.69% IOWA
  3.28% NORTHERN IOWA
  3.09% WICHITA STATE
  2.93% WEST VIRGINIA
  2.90% TEXAS
  2.25% PROVIDENCE
  2.16% BUTLER
  2.05% ARKANSAS
  1.85% SMU
  1.77% MARYLAND
  1.73% XAVIER
  1.54% DAVIDSON
  1.40% NC STATE
  1.21% SAN DIEGO STATE
  1.00% UCLA
  0.99% PURDUE
  0.92% OKLAHOMA ST
  0.75% GEORGIA
  0.72% INDIANA
  0.71% LSU
  0.68% ST. JOHN'S
  0.60% OLE MISS
  0.47% DAYTON
  0.47% SF AUSTIN
  0.41% CINCINNATI
  0.39% VCU
  0.36% OREGON
  0.35% BUFFALO
  0.15% VALPARAISO
  0.11% GEORGIA STATE
  0.05% UC IRVINE
  0.05% HARVARD
  0.04% NEW MEXICO ST
  0.04% WYOMING
  0.03% WOFFORD
  0.02% UAB
  0.01% NORTHEASTERN
  0.01% E WASHINGTON
  0.01% ALBANY
  0.01% BELMONT
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  0.00% COAST CAROLINA
  0.00% ROBERT MORRIS
  0.00% LAFAYETTE
  0.00% HAMPTON
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN

 44.64% KENTUCKY
 23.91% VILLANOVA
 19.35% ARIZONA
*18.54% DUKE
*17.55% WISCONSIN
 16.85% VIRGINIA
  8.28% GONZAGA
  7.71% UTAH
  6.69% IOWA STATE
  6.47% OKLAHOMA
  3.67% NORTH CAROLINA
  3.18% NOTRE DAME
  3.01% KANSAS
  2.94% LOUISVILLE
  2.23% BAYLOR
  1.66% MICHIGAN STATE
  1.48% GEORGETOWN
  1.21% OHIO STATE
  1.18% IOWA
  1.06% NORTHERN IOWA
  0.88% WICHITA STATE
  0.85% TEXAS
  0.75% WEST VIRGINIA
  0.74% PROVIDENCE
  0.59% BUTLER
  0.46% SMU
  0.44% ARKANSAS
  0.41% NC STATE
  0.40% DAVIDSON
  0.39% XAVIER
  0.38% MARYLAND
  0.28% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.21% UCLA
  0.21% GEORGIA
  0.20% PURDUE
  0.18% LSU
  0.18% OKLAHOMA ST
  0.14% INDIANA
  0.14% ST. JOHN'S
  0.11% DAYTON
  0.10% OLE MISS
  0.09% SF AUSTIN
  0.07% VCU
  0.07% CINCINNATI
  0.05% OREGON
  0.05% BUFFALO
  0.02% VALPARAISO
  0.01% GEORGIA STATE
  0.01% UC IRVINE
  0.00% WYOMING
  0.00% HARVARD
  0.00% NEW MEXICO ST
  0.00% WOFFORD
  0.00% UAB
  0.00% NORTHEASTERN
  0.00% ALBANY
  0.00% E WASHINGTON
  0.00% BELMONT
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  0.00% COAST CAROLINA
  0.00% ROBERT MORRIS
  0.00% LAFAYETTE
  0.00% HAMPTON
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN

 31.88% KENTUCKY
 12.18% ARIZONA
 10.94% VILLANOVA
 10.62% WISCONSIN
* 7.83% DUKE
  7.33% VIRGINIA
  2.78% GONZAGA
  2.73% UTAH
  2.09% OKLAHOMA
  2.08% IOWA STATE
  1.61% NORTH CAROLINA
  1.31% NOTRE DAME
  1.22% KANSAS
  0.90% BAYLOR
  0.75% LOUISVILLE
  0.47% OHIO STATE
  0.43% MICHIGAN STATE
  0.32% GEORGETOWN
  0.29% TEXAS
  0.29% WICHITA STATE
  0.26% IOWA
  0.22% WEST VIRGINIA
  0.21% NORTHERN IOWA
  0.19% BUTLER
  0.15% PROVIDENCE
  0.12% ARKANSAS
  0.11% XAVIER
  0.10% MARYLAND
  0.08% SMU
  0.07% NC STATE
  0.07% DAVIDSON
  0.05% PURDUE
  0.04% OKLAHOMA ST
  0.04% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.03% GEORGIA
  0.03% INDIANA
  0.03% UCLA
  0.03% LSU
  0.02% OLE MISS
  0.02% ST. JOHN'S
  0.02% VCU
  0.01% DAYTON
  0.01% CINCINNATI
  0.01% SF AUSTIN
  0.01% OREGON
  0.01% BUFFALO
  0.00% VALPARAISO
  0.00% GEORGIA STATE
  0.00% HARVARD
  0.00% UC IRVINE
  0.00% NEW MEXICO ST
  0.00% WYOMING
  0.00% WOFFORD
  0.00% NORTHEASTERN
  0.00% UAB
  0.00% ALBANY
  0.00% E WASHINGTON
  0.00% BELMONT
  0.00% COAST CAROLINA
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  0.00% ROBERT MORRIS
  0.00% LAFAYETTE
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% HAMPTON

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 17

First Round Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
 73.34% MANHATTAN
 58.49% NORTH FLORIDA
 56.56% BYU
 53.04% BOISE STATE
*46.96% DAYTON
*43.44% OLE MISS
*41.51% ROBERT MORRIS
*26.66% HAMPTON

*99.28% ARIZONA
*98.83% KENTUCKY
*98.23% VILLANOVA
*97.22% WISCONSIN
*96.25% DUKE
*96.02% VIRGINIA
*95.03% GONZAGA
*92.25% OKLAHOMA
 91.16% IOWA STATE
*89.50% NOTRE DAME
*86.98% NORTH CAROLINA
*86.72% GEORGETOWN
*86.00% KANSAS
*83.49% LOUISVILLE
*80.16% UTAH
 80.08% BAYLOR
*79.10% NORTHERN IOWA
*77.51% ARKANSAS
*68.49% OHIO STATE
*68.48% MARYLAND
*66.58% WEST VIRGINIA
*65.10% MICHIGAN STATE
*61.90% WICHITA STATE
 60.72% PROVIDENCE
*58.02% IOWA
 56.98% OKLAHOMA ST
 56.54% PURDUE
*56.15% XAVIER
*56.04% NC STATE
 55.49% SMU
*54.92% SAN DIEGO STATE
 52.64% TEXAS
*47.36% BUTLER
 45.08% ST. JOHN'S
*44.51% UCLA
 43.96% LSU
*43.46% CINCINNATI
*43.02% OREGON
 41.98% DAVIDSON
 38.10% INDIANA
 34.90% GEORGIA
 33.42% BUFFALO
 31.52% VALPARAISO
 31.51% VCU
 26.40% BYU
 22.49% WOFFORD
 21.56% BOISE STATE
 20.90% WYOMING
*19.92% GEORGIA STATE
 19.84% SF AUSTIN
*17.71% DAYTON
 17.45% OLE MISS
 16.51% UC IRVINE
 14.00% NEW MEXICO ST
 13.28% E WASHINGTON
 13.02% HARVARD
 10.50% NORTHEASTERN
* 8.84% UAB
  7.75% ALBANY
  4.97% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  3.98% BELMONT
  2.78% COAST CAROLINA
  2.60% NORTH FLORIDA
  1.77% LAFAYETTE
  1.15% ROBERT MORRIS
  1.11% MANHATTAN
  0.72% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.07% HAMPTON

*90.13% KENTUCKY
*83.29% WISCONSIN
 81.50% VILLANOVA
*79.18% DUKE
*77.10% ARIZONA
 70.57% VIRGINIA
*64.64% GONZAGA
 64.53% IOWA STATE
*64.17% OKLAHOMA
*63.06% NORTH CAROLINA
*56.68% UTAH
 54.03% KANSAS
*53.83% LOUISVILLE
*52.99% NOTRE DAME
 51.95% BAYLOR
*40.52% WEST VIRGINIA
 37.13% NORTHERN IOWA
 34.51% MARYLAND
 34.15% GEORGETOWN
 29.27% ARKANSAS
*29.06% WICHITA STATE
*24.71% XAVIER
 24.51% TEXAS
 23.06% PROVIDENCE
 21.88% IOWA
*21.52% MICHIGAN STATE
 20.88% BUTLER
 19.79% SMU
 18.49% OHIO STATE
 14.82% BUFFALO
*13.80% UCLA
 13.70% INDIANA
 12.89% DAVIDSON
 11.81% SAN DIEGO STATE
*11.18% NC STATE
 10.80% BYU
 10.18% OKLAHOMA ST
 10.16% VALPARAISO
  8.25% ST. JOHN'S
  7.91% SF AUSTIN
  7.37% GEORGIA
  7.11% LSU
  6.46% BOISE STATE
  6.43% GEORGIA STATE
  6.11% OLE MISS
  6.09% PURDUE
  5.98% OREGON
  4.88% DAYTON
  4.79% UC IRVINE
  4.38% VCU
  4.24% WYOMING
  4.12% HARVARD
  3.55% CINCINNATI
  3.55% WOFFORD
  3.21% NEW MEXICO ST
  1.87% UAB
  1.62% NORTHEASTERN
  1.43% ALBANY
  1.26% E WASHINGTON
  0.60% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  0.57% NORTH FLORIDA
  0.56% COAST CAROLINA
  0.54% BELMONT
  0.23% MANHATTAN
  0.22% LAFAYETTE
  0.19% ROBERT MORRIS
  0.04% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.01% HAMPTON

*80.85% KENTUCKY
 62.41% VILLANOVA
*61.07% WISCONSIN
*60.38% ARIZONA
*52.08% DUKE
 48.45% VIRGINIA
*39.95% GONZAGA
 33.66% IOWA STATE
*30.28% NOTRE DAME
 29.17% KANSAS
 28.64% OKLAHOMA
 28.15% UTAH
 25.16% NORTH CAROLINA
*18.77% LOUISVILLE
 17.54% BAYLOR
 13.23% WICHITA STATE
 12.10% TEXAS
 11.52% GEORGETOWN
*10.76% MICHIGAN STATE
 10.51% OHIO STATE
 10.33% IOWA
 10.18% NORTHERN IOWA
  9.77% BUTLER
  7.30% ARKANSAS
  7.19% WEST VIRGINIA
  6.90% PROVIDENCE
  6.69% SMU
  5.82% XAVIER
  5.13% MARYLAND
  5.10% DAVIDSON
  4.99% NC STATE
  4.66% INDIANA
  4.01% UCLA
  3.96% SAN DIEGO STATE
  3.80% OKLAHOMA ST
  3.05% PURDUE
  2.77% LSU
  2.62% GEORGIA
  2.42% ST. JOHN'S
  2.29% BYU
  1.87% OREGON
  1.70% SF AUSTIN
  1.68% VCU
  1.55% CINCINNATI
  1.46% BOISE STATE
  1.44% BUFFALO
  1.04% OLE MISS
  1.00% DAYTON
  0.74% VALPARAISO
  0.72% GEORGIA STATE
  0.54% NEW MEXICO ST
  0.48% UC IRVINE
  0.42% HARVARD
  0.38% WYOMING
  0.32% WOFFORD
  0.24% NORTHEASTERN
  0.20% UAB
  0.10% ALBANY
  0.10% E WASHINGTON
  0.07% COAST CAROLINA
  0.06% NORTH FLORIDA
  0.06% BELMONT
  0.06% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  0.04% MANHATTAN
  0.02% LAFAYETTE
  0.01% ROBERT MORRIS
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% HAMPTON

*66.03% KENTUCKY
 38.33% VILLANOVA
 36.89% ARIZONA
*35.55% WISCONSIN
*33.71% DUKE
 28.03% VIRGINIA
 19.81% GONZAGA
 16.21% UTAH
 15.27% IOWA STATE
 13.19% OKLAHOMA
 10.57% NORTH CAROLINA
  9.17% NOTRE DAME
  8.65% KANSAS
  7.40% LOUISVILLE
  6.83% BAYLOR
  4.66% GEORGETOWN
* 4.23% MICHIGAN STATE
  3.97% OHIO STATE
  3.64% IOWA
  3.19% NORTHERN IOWA
  3.12% WICHITA STATE
  3.02% WEST VIRGINIA
  2.97% TEXAS
  2.23% BUTLER
  2.18% PROVIDENCE
  1.93% ARKANSAS
  1.90% MARYLAND
  1.88% SMU
  1.64% XAVIER
  1.45% DAVIDSON
  1.43% NC STATE
  1.26% SAN DIEGO STATE
  1.09% PURDUE
  0.96% UCLA
  0.90% OKLAHOMA ST
  0.77% INDIANA
  0.69% GEORGIA
  0.67% ST. JOHN'S
  0.66% LSU
  0.59% BYU
  0.46% CINCINNATI
  0.45% SF AUSTIN
  0.38% BUFFALO
  0.38% VCU
  0.35% BOISE STATE
  0.35% OREGON
  0.22% DAYTON
  0.22% OLE MISS
  0.16% VALPARAISO
  0.10% GEORGIA STATE
  0.06% UC IRVINE
  0.05% HARVARD
  0.04% NEW MEXICO ST
  0.04% WYOMING
  0.03% WOFFORD
  0.02% UAB
  0.01% NORTHEASTERN
  0.01% E WASHINGTON
  0.01% ALBANY
  0.01% NORTH FLORIDA
  0.00% MANHATTAN
  0.00% BELMONT
  0.00% COAST CAROLINA
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  0.00% ROBERT MORRIS
  0.00% LAFAYETTE
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% HAMPTON

 43.42% KENTUCKY
 23.84% VILLANOVA
 19.58% ARIZONA
*18.33% DUKE
*18.11% WISCONSIN
 16.81% VIRGINIA
  9.17% GONZAGA
  7.62% UTAH
  6.43% IOWA STATE
  6.30% OKLAHOMA
  3.76% NORTH CAROLINA
  3.31% NOTRE DAME
  3.06% KANSAS
  2.96% LOUISVILLE
  2.21% BAYLOR
  1.72% MICHIGAN STATE
  1.44% GEORGETOWN
  1.25% OHIO STATE
  1.17% IOWA
  1.01% NORTHERN IOWA
  0.88% WICHITA STATE
  0.87% TEXAS
  0.76% WEST VIRGINIA
  0.71% PROVIDENCE
  0.60% BUTLER
  0.48% SMU
  0.42% ARKANSAS
  0.41% NC STATE
  0.41% MARYLAND
  0.38% XAVIER
  0.37% DAVIDSON
  0.30% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.22% PURDUE
  0.20% UCLA
  0.19% GEORGIA
  0.17% OKLAHOMA ST
  0.16% LSU
  0.15% INDIANA
  0.13% ST. JOHN'S
  0.12% BYU
  0.09% BOISE STATE
  0.08% SF AUSTIN
  0.08% CINCINNATI
  0.07% VCU
  0.05% OREGON
  0.05% BUFFALO
  0.05% DAYTON
  0.04% OLE MISS
  0.02% VALPARAISO
  0.01% GEORGIA STATE
  0.01% UC IRVINE
  0.00% WYOMING
  0.00% HARVARD
  0.00% NEW MEXICO ST
  0.00% WOFFORD
  0.00% UAB
  0.00% NORTHEASTERN
  0.00% ALBANY
  0.00% E WASHINGTON
  0.00% NORTH FLORIDA
  0.00% BELMONT
  0.00% MANHATTAN
  0.00% COAST CAROLINA
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  0.00% ROBERT MORRIS
  0.00% LAFAYETTE
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% HAMPTON

 30.77% KENTUCKY
 12.31% ARIZONA
 11.00% VILLANOVA
 10.98% WISCONSIN
* 7.84% DUKE
  7.39% VIRGINIA
  3.22% GONZAGA
  2.73% UTAH
  2.05% OKLAHOMA
  2.02% IOWA STATE
  1.65% NORTH CAROLINA
  1.36% NOTRE DAME
  1.23% KANSAS
  0.88% BAYLOR
  0.77% LOUISVILLE
  0.48% OHIO STATE
  0.45% MICHIGAN STATE
  0.31% GEORGETOWN
  0.29% TEXAS
  0.29% WICHITA STATE
  0.27% IOWA
  0.23% WEST VIRGINIA
  0.20% NORTHERN IOWA
  0.19% BUTLER
  0.14% PROVIDENCE
  0.12% ARKANSAS
  0.11% XAVIER
  0.10% MARYLAND
  0.08% SMU
  0.07% NC STATE
  0.06% DAVIDSON
  0.05% PURDUE
  0.05% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.04% OKLAHOMA ST
  0.03% INDIANA
  0.03% BYU
  0.03% GEORGIA
  0.03% UCLA
  0.02% LSU
  0.02% ST. JOHN'S
  0.02% VCU
  0.01% CINCINNATI
  0.01% BOISE STATE
  0.01% OREGON
  0.01% SF AUSTIN
  0.01% BUFFALO
  0.01% OLE MISS
  0.01% DAYTON
  0.00% VALPARAISO
  0.00% GEORGIA STATE
  0.00% HARVARD
  0.00% UC IRVINE
  0.00% NEW MEXICO ST
  0.00% WYOMING
  0.00% WOFFORD
  0.00% NORTHEASTERN
  0.00% UAB
  0.00% ALBANY
  0.00% E WASHINGTON
  0.00% NORTH FLORIDA
  0.00% MANHATTAN
  0.00% BELMONT
  0.00% COAST CAROLINA
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA ST
  0.00% ROBERT MORRIS
  0.00% LAFAYETTE
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% HAMPTON

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Note: if you use any of the facts, equations, or mathematical principles introduced here, you must give me credit.

copyright ©2015 Andrew Dolphin