Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      52 27 256 192  0.023 40.447    1  0.269    1  0.257    2  0.275    1 0.5749   17  1.023    4  0.281    5  0.268
AVALANCHE      45 21 235 160 -0.039 32.078    2  0.256    3  0.238    1  0.296   25 0.4601   11  1.089    1  0.381    6  0.211
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 50 25 244 170 -0.021 37.059    3  0.254    2  0.239    3  0.257   24 0.4655   27  0.875   11  0.095    2  0.419
PANTHERS       39 23 206 177  0.041 32.322    4  0.221    4  0.200    9  0.120    2 0.5673    5  1.170    3  0.306   19 -0.066
PENGUINS       39 23 212 177 -0.003 31.173    5  0.198    5  0.175    5  0.149    4 0.5634    2  1.193    2  0.365   20 -0.066
HURRICANES     41 26 210 166  0.024 34.392    6  0.193    6  0.169    4  0.201    3 0.5636   24  0.924   13  0.093    4  0.308
CAPITALS       37 24 201 179  0.002 30.830    7  0.165    7  0.143   10  0.093    5 0.5578    7  1.159    5  0.265   21 -0.078
ISLANDERS      43 32 210 181  0.056 39.485    8  0.162    8  0.140    8  0.146    6 0.5568   31  0.719   25 -0.180    1  0.471
WILD           38 25 194 180 -0.007 31.671    9  0.159    9  0.138   11  0.058   26 0.4439   13  1.081    8  0.134   14 -0.018
BRUINS         39 28 201 168  0.008 33.959   10  0.135   10  0.117    7  0.147    7 0.5549   28  0.848   17 -0.045    3  0.338
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    38 25 205 162 -0.085 29.705   11  0.108   11  0.092    6  0.147    9 0.5298   18  1.021    7  0.151    8  0.144
OILERS         35 25 191 168 -0.067 28.795   12  0.078   12  0.071   13  0.056   11 0.5257    9  1.105    6  0.161   16 -0.050
PREDATORS      33 29 172 176  0.037 32.344   13  0.066   13  0.059   16 -0.008    8 0.5449   22  0.957   19 -0.079   10  0.062
JETS           34 30 190 176 -0.059 30.921   14  0.021   14  0.003   15 -0.003   15 0.5153   20  0.986   16 -0.040   11  0.034
CANADIENS      37 41 210 222  0.021 40.283   15 -0.008   15 -0.033   17 -0.045   16 0.5052   26  0.890   26 -0.190    9  0.100
RANGERS        27 29 177 157 -0.007 28.181   16 -0.015   16 -0.037   12  0.057   10 0.5289   14  1.066    9  0.114   13 -0.001
FLYERS         25 31 163 201  0.013 28.845   17 -0.059   17 -0.074   23 -0.149   12 0.5211    1  1.228   10  0.112   30 -0.409
BLUES          27 33 176 190 -0.010 30.241   18 -0.070   18 -0.086   20 -0.093   27 0.4075   10  1.103   15  0.010   24 -0.196
FLAMES         26 30 156 161 -0.058 27.141   19 -0.072   19 -0.088   18 -0.073   18 0.4998   21  0.979   23 -0.118   15 -0.029
BLACKHAWKS     24 32 161 186  0.029 29.151   20 -0.077   20 -0.091   19 -0.090   13 0.5197    6  1.168   12  0.094   25 -0.273
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COYOTES        24 32 153 176 -0.024 28.014   21 -0.106   21 -0.119   21 -0.125   28 0.4003   16  1.048   20 -0.090   22 -0.161
STARS          23 33 158 154  0.014 28.680   22 -0.109   22 -0.123   14  0.029   14 0.5158   25  0.890   22 -0.116    7  0.174
CANUCKS        23 33 151 188 -0.029 27.901   23 -0.134   23 -0.146   28 -0.217   21 0.4885    8  1.108   21 -0.108   27 -0.325
SENATORS       23 33 157 190 -0.031 27.854   24 -0.135   24 -0.147   24 -0.164   22 0.4884    4  1.171   14  0.023   29 -0.352
KINGS          21 35 143 170 -0.022 28.081   25 -0.179   26 -0.192   22 -0.138   29 0.3886   23  0.949   27 -0.217   18 -0.060
SHARKS         21 35 151 199 -0.012 28.374   26 -0.180   25 -0.187   29 -0.253   30 0.3886    3  1.176   18 -0.058   31 -0.447
RED WINGS      19 37 127 171  0.053 29.837   27 -0.190   27 -0.198   25 -0.189   17 0.5001   30  0.832   30 -0.397   12  0.019
DEVILS         19 37 145 194  0.026 29.258   28 -0.202   28 -0.212   26 -0.216   19 0.4977   12  1.083   24 -0.137   26 -0.295
BLUE JACKETS   18 38 137 187  0.041 29.501   29 -0.215   29 -0.230   27 -0.216   20 0.4962   19  0.995   28 -0.242   23 -0.190
DUCKS          17 39 126 179 -0.010 28.458   30 -0.256   30 -0.282   30 -0.254   31 0.3730   29  0.839   31 -0.454   17 -0.054
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SABRES         15 41 138 199  0.038 29.568   31 -0.279   31 -0.310   31 -0.301   23 0.4820   15  1.048   29 -0.265   28 -0.337

WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE      45 21 235 160 -0.039 32.078    2  0.256    3  0.238    1  0.296   25 0.4601   11  1.089    1  0.381    6  0.211
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 50 25 244 170 -0.021 37.059    3  0.254    2  0.239    3  0.257   24 0.4655   27  0.875   11  0.095    2  0.419
WILD           38 25 194 180 -0.007 31.671    9  0.159    9  0.138   11  0.058   26 0.4439   13  1.081    8  0.134   14 -0.018
BLUES          27 33 176 190 -0.010 30.241   18 -0.070   18 -0.086   20 -0.093   27 0.4075   10  1.103   15  0.010   24 -0.196
COYOTES        24 32 153 176 -0.024 28.014   21 -0.106   21 -0.119   21 -0.125   28 0.4003   16  1.048   20 -0.090   22 -0.161
KINGS          21 35 143 170 -0.022 28.081   25 -0.179   26 -0.192   22 -0.138   29 0.3886   23  0.949   27 -0.217   18 -0.060
SHARKS         21 35 151 199 -0.012 28.374   26 -0.180   25 -0.187   29 -0.253   30 0.3886    3  1.176   18 -0.058   31 -0.447
DUCKS          17 39 126 179 -0.010 28.458   30 -0.256   30 -0.282   30 -0.254   31 0.3730   29  0.839   31 -0.454   17 -0.054

CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      52 27 256 192  0.023 40.447    1  0.269    1  0.257    2  0.275    1 0.5749   17  1.023    4  0.281    5  0.268
PANTHERS       39 23 206 177  0.041 32.322    4  0.221    4  0.200    9  0.120    2 0.5673    5  1.170    3  0.306   19 -0.066
HURRICANES     41 26 210 166  0.024 34.392    6  0.193    6  0.169    4  0.201    3 0.5636   24  0.924   13  0.093    4  0.308
PREDATORS      33 29 172 176  0.037 32.344   13  0.066   13  0.059   16 -0.008    8 0.5449   22  0.957   19 -0.079   10  0.062
BLACKHAWKS     24 32 161 186  0.029 29.151   20 -0.077   20 -0.091   19 -0.090   13 0.5197    6  1.168   12  0.094   25 -0.273
STARS          23 33 158 154  0.014 28.680   22 -0.109   22 -0.123   14  0.029   14 0.5158   25  0.890   22 -0.116    7  0.174
RED WINGS      19 37 127 171  0.053 29.837   27 -0.190   27 -0.198   25 -0.189   17 0.5001   30  0.832   30 -0.397   12  0.019
BLUE JACKETS   18 38 137 187  0.041 29.501   29 -0.215   29 -0.230   27 -0.216   20 0.4962   19  0.995   28 -0.242   23 -0.190

NORTH
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    38 25 205 162 -0.085 29.705   11  0.108   11  0.092    6  0.147    9 0.5298   18  1.021    7  0.151    8  0.144
OILERS         35 25 191 168 -0.067 28.795   12  0.078   12  0.071   13  0.056   11 0.5257    9  1.105    6  0.161   16 -0.050
JETS           34 30 190 176 -0.059 30.921   14  0.021   14  0.003   15 -0.003   15 0.5153   20  0.986   16 -0.040   11  0.034
CANADIENS      37 41 210 222  0.021 40.283   15 -0.008   15 -0.033   17 -0.045   16 0.5052   26  0.890   26 -0.190    9  0.100
FLAMES         26 30 156 161 -0.058 27.141   19 -0.072   19 -0.088   18 -0.073   18 0.4998   21  0.979   23 -0.118   15 -0.029
CANUCKS        23 33 151 188 -0.029 27.901   23 -0.134   23 -0.146   28 -0.217   21 0.4885    8  1.108   21 -0.108   27 -0.325
SENATORS       23 33 157 190 -0.031 27.854   24 -0.135   24 -0.147   24 -0.164   22 0.4884    4  1.171   14  0.023   29 -0.352

EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PENGUINS       39 23 212 177 -0.003 31.173    5  0.198    5  0.175    5  0.149    4 0.5634    2  1.193    2  0.365   20 -0.066
CAPITALS       37 24 201 179  0.002 30.830    7  0.165    7  0.143   10  0.093    5 0.5578    7  1.159    5  0.265   21 -0.078
ISLANDERS      43 32 210 181  0.056 39.485    8  0.162    8  0.140    8  0.146    6 0.5568   31  0.719   25 -0.180    1  0.471
BRUINS         39 28 201 168  0.008 33.959   10  0.135   10  0.117    7  0.147    7 0.5549   28  0.848   17 -0.045    3  0.338
RANGERS        27 29 177 157 -0.007 28.181   16 -0.015   16 -0.037   12  0.057   10 0.5289   14  1.066    9  0.114   13 -0.001
FLYERS         25 31 163 201  0.013 28.845   17 -0.059   17 -0.074   23 -0.149   12 0.5211    1  1.228   10  0.112   30 -0.409
DEVILS         19 37 145 194  0.026 29.258   28 -0.202   28 -0.212   26 -0.216   19 0.4977   12  1.083   24 -0.137   26 -0.295
SABRES         15 41 138 199  0.038 29.568   31 -0.279   31 -0.310   31 -0.301   23 0.4820   15  1.048   29 -0.265   28 -0.337

DIVISION   W L   PCT  RNK RATING

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.115 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Aug  3 19:33:18 2021
games through: Wed Jul  7 2021

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