Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH   53 35 308 251 -0.009 43.922    1  0.144    2  0.120    2  0.138    1 0.5255    1  1.250    1  0.517   26 -0.242
NY RANGERS   61 41 269 228 -0.011 50.882    2  0.141    1  0.121    8  0.103    2 0.5245   28  0.687   26 -0.164    3  0.370
NEW JERSEY   62 44 287 267  0.013 53.995    3  0.126    3  0.118   11  0.044    3 0.5229   24  0.859   17 -0.045    5  0.133
VANCOUVER    52 35 257 210 -0.007 43.487    4  0.122    4  0.114    5  0.123    4 0.5218   16  0.948    9  0.132    6  0.113
ST. LOUIS    53 38 229 188  0.011 46.119    5  0.111    5  0.107    1  0.156    5 0.5201   29  0.607   27 -0.189    1  0.501
NASHVILLE    53 39 259 231  0.022 47.075    6  0.102    6  0.104    7  0.106    6 0.5193   15  0.954   10  0.123    7  0.088
BOSTON       52 37 284 218 -0.030 43.686    7  0.076    7  0.087    4  0.129    7 0.5175   10  1.008    4  0.208   11  0.049
DETROIT      49 38 257 216  0.016 44.299    8  0.071    8  0.082    6  0.118    9 0.5164   11  0.980    6  0.165    8  0.071
LOS ANGELES  56 46 251 209  0.034 52.672    9  0.062    9  0.079    3  0.133   10 0.5152   30  0.590   29 -0.229    2  0.494
PHILADELPHIA 52 41 305 276  0.009 47.185   10  0.060   10  0.076    9  0.077    8 0.5171    3  1.210    2  0.405   27 -0.251
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO      47 41 260 255  0.016 44.997   11  0.033   11  0.047   13  0.007   11 0.5086    5  1.127    3  0.230   25 -0.216
PHOENIX      51 47 253 239  0.023 50.292   12  0.028   12  0.034   10  0.065   12 0.5068   26  0.795   21 -0.092    4  0.223
SAN JOSE     44 43 236 223  0.021 44.620   13  0.018   15  0.013   12  0.032   15 0.5025   18  0.926   12  0.018   13  0.047
DALLAS       42 40 211 222  0.011 41.831   14  0.018   13  0.015   16 -0.034   14 0.5029   17  0.945   15 -0.027   18 -0.041
WASHINGTON   49 47 251 260  0.007 48.755   15  0.016   14  0.014   15 -0.010   13 0.5037   20  0.887   19 -0.068   12  0.049
COLORADO     41 41 208 220 -0.001 41.511   16  0.008   16 -0.005   18 -0.065   16 0.4991   22  0.880   22 -0.131   15  0.000
OTTAWA       44 45 262 254 -0.006 44.732   17  0.005   17 -0.014   14  0.003   17 0.4983    7  1.077    7  0.165   21 -0.159
BUFFALO      39 43 218 230 -0.020 40.828   18 -0.013   18 -0.042   17 -0.045   18 0.4916   19  0.909   20 -0.078   17 -0.011
FLORIDA      41 48 220 245 -0.022 44.281   19 -0.029   20 -0.065   21 -0.072   19 0.4899   25  0.815   28 -0.209   10  0.064
TAMPA BAY    38 44 235 281 -0.022 40.924   20 -0.030   19 -0.059   27 -0.144   20 0.4887    2  1.229    5  0.208   30 -0.496
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CALGARY      37 45 202 226 -0.005 41.357   21 -0.035   21 -0.065   20 -0.071   21 0.4868   21  0.884   23 -0.132   16 -0.010
WINNIPEG     37 45 225 246 -0.030 40.544   22 -0.049   22 -0.078   23 -0.081   22 0.4858    8  1.035   11  0.030   24 -0.191
MINNESOTA    35 47 177 226 -0.001 41.615   23 -0.072   23 -0.093   28 -0.159   23 0.4812   27  0.730   30 -0.383    9  0.066
TORONTO      35 47 231 264 -0.014 41.112   24 -0.080   24 -0.098   26 -0.102   24 0.4804    4  1.144    8  0.142   29 -0.346
ANAHEIM      34 48 204 231  0.013 41.964   25 -0.084   25 -0.101   22 -0.074   26 0.4798   13  0.957   18 -0.054   19 -0.094
NY ISLANDERS 34 48 203 255 -0.001 41.615   26 -0.096   26 -0.107   30 -0.163   25 0.4803   14  0.956   24 -0.144   22 -0.183
CAROLINA     33 49 213 243 -0.023 40.774   27 -0.135   27 -0.132   24 -0.081   27 0.4748   12  0.975   16 -0.040   20 -0.122
EDMONTON     32 50 212 239 -0.004 41.443   28 -0.145   28 -0.137   25 -0.092   28 0.4726    9  1.023   14  0.004   23 -0.189
MONTREAL     31 51 212 226 -0.017 40.974   29 -0.177   29 -0.157   19 -0.067   29 0.4690   23  0.865   25 -0.149   14  0.016
COLUMBUS     29 53 202 262  0.023 42.425   30 -0.196   30 -0.170   29 -0.159   30 0.4662    6  1.081   13  0.007   28 -0.324
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LOS ANGELES  56 46 251 209  0.034 52.672    9  0.062    9  0.079    3  0.133   10 0.5152   30  0.590   29 -0.229    2  0.494
PHOENIX      51 47 253 239  0.023 50.292   12  0.028   12  0.034   10  0.065   12 0.5068   26  0.795   21 -0.092    4  0.223
SAN JOSE     44 43 236 223  0.021 44.620   13  0.018   15  0.013   12  0.032   15 0.5025   18  0.926   12  0.018   13  0.047
DALLAS       42 40 211 222  0.011 41.831   14  0.018   13  0.015   16 -0.034   14 0.5029   17  0.945   15 -0.027   18 -0.041
ANAHEIM      34 48 204 231  0.013 41.964   25 -0.084   25 -0.101   22 -0.074   26 0.4798   13  0.957   18 -0.054   19 -0.094

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VANCOUVER    52 35 257 210 -0.007 43.487    4  0.122    4  0.114    5  0.123    4 0.5218   16  0.948    9  0.132    6  0.113
COLORADO     41 41 208 220 -0.001 41.511   16  0.008   16 -0.005   18 -0.065   16 0.4991   22  0.880   22 -0.131   15  0.000
CALGARY      37 45 202 226 -0.005 41.357   21 -0.035   21 -0.065   20 -0.071   21 0.4868   21  0.884   23 -0.132   16 -0.010
MINNESOTA    35 47 177 226 -0.001 41.615   23 -0.072   23 -0.093   28 -0.159   23 0.4812   27  0.730   30 -0.383    9  0.066
EDMONTON     32 50 212 239 -0.004 41.443   28 -0.145   28 -0.137   25 -0.092   28 0.4726    9  1.023   14  0.004   23 -0.189

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS    53 38 229 188  0.011 46.119    5  0.111    5  0.107    1  0.156    5 0.5201   29  0.607   27 -0.189    1  0.501
NASHVILLE    53 39 259 231  0.022 47.075    6  0.102    6  0.104    7  0.106    6 0.5193   15  0.954   10  0.123    7  0.088
DETROIT      49 38 257 216  0.016 44.299    8  0.071    8  0.082    6  0.118    9 0.5164   11  0.980    6  0.165    8  0.071
CHICAGO      47 41 260 255  0.016 44.997   11  0.033   11  0.047   13  0.007   11 0.5086    5  1.127    3  0.230   25 -0.216
COLUMBUS     29 53 202 262  0.023 42.425   30 -0.196   30 -0.170   29 -0.159   30 0.4662    6  1.081   13  0.007   28 -0.324

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON   49 47 251 260  0.007 48.755   15  0.016   14  0.014   15 -0.010   13 0.5037   20  0.887   19 -0.068   12  0.049
FLORIDA      41 48 220 245 -0.022 44.281   19 -0.029   20 -0.065   21 -0.072   19 0.4899   25  0.815   28 -0.209   10  0.064
TAMPA BAY    38 44 235 281 -0.022 40.924   20 -0.030   19 -0.059   27 -0.144   20 0.4887    2  1.229    5  0.208   30 -0.496
WINNIPEG     37 45 225 246 -0.030 40.544   22 -0.049   22 -0.078   23 -0.081   22 0.4858    8  1.035   11  0.030   24 -0.191
CAROLINA     33 49 213 243 -0.023 40.774   27 -0.135   27 -0.132   24 -0.081   27 0.4748   12  0.975   16 -0.040   20 -0.122

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON       52 37 284 218 -0.030 43.686    7  0.076    7  0.087    4  0.129    7 0.5175   10  1.008    4  0.208   11  0.049
OTTAWA       44 45 262 254 -0.006 44.732   17  0.005   17 -0.014   14  0.003   17 0.4983    7  1.077    7  0.165   21 -0.159
BUFFALO      39 43 218 230 -0.020 40.828   18 -0.013   18 -0.042   17 -0.045   18 0.4916   19  0.909   20 -0.078   17 -0.011
TORONTO      35 47 231 264 -0.014 41.112   24 -0.080   24 -0.098   26 -0.102   24 0.4804    4  1.144    8  0.142   29 -0.346
MONTREAL     31 51 212 226 -0.017 40.974   29 -0.177   29 -0.157   19 -0.067   29 0.4690   23  0.865   25 -0.149   14  0.016

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH   53 35 308 251 -0.009 43.922    1  0.144    2  0.120    2  0.138    1 0.5255    1  1.250    1  0.517   26 -0.242
NY RANGERS   61 41 269 228 -0.011 50.882    2  0.141    1  0.121    8  0.103    2 0.5245   28  0.687   26 -0.164    3  0.370
NEW JERSEY   62 44 287 267  0.013 53.995    3  0.126    3  0.118   11  0.044    3 0.5229   24  0.859   17 -0.045    5  0.133
PHILADELPHIA 52 41 305 276  0.009 47.185   10  0.060   10  0.076    9  0.077    8 0.5171    3  1.210    2  0.405   27 -0.251
NY ISLANDERS 34 48 203 255 -0.001 41.615   26 -0.096   26 -0.107   30 -0.163   25 0.4803   14  0.956   24 -0.144   22 -0.183

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   231 209 0.525    1  0.079
ATLANTIC DIVISION  262 209 0.556    2  0.067
PACIFIC DIVISION   227 224 0.503    3  0.042
NORTHEAST DIVISION 201 223 0.474    4 -0.024
NORTHWEST DIVISION 197 218 0.475    5 -0.086
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 198 233 0.459    6 -0.126

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.124 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:04:16 2024
games through: Mon Jun 11 2012

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