Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     15  2 580 396  0.005  7.870    1  0.626    1  0.610    6  0.275    1 0.6239    2  1.654    2  0.882   27 -0.332
NEW ENGLAND   15  4 598 393  0.040  9.194    2  0.520    2  0.495    2  0.404    2 0.5911    4  1.549    3  0.848   17 -0.039
SAN FRANCISCO 14  4 433 281  0.060  8.758    3  0.498    3  0.472    4  0.330    3 0.5850   27  1.031   13  0.074    1  0.585
NEW ORLEANS   14  4 624 403  0.027  8.421    4  0.455    4  0.423    1  0.456    4 0.5814    1  1.657    1  1.067   21 -0.154
NY GIANTS     13  7 496 456  0.276 11.749    5  0.436    5  0.421    3  0.369    5 0.5710    9  1.367    5  0.547    9  0.191
BALTIMORE     13  5 418 302  0.051  8.914    6  0.398    6  0.379    7  0.240    6 0.5655   21  1.177    9  0.163    5  0.317
PITTSBURGH    12  5 348 256 -0.020  7.939    7  0.312    7  0.303    8  0.199    7 0.5598   28  0.943   21 -0.158    2  0.555
DETROIT       10  7 502 432  0.078  8.709    8  0.186    8  0.167   10  0.146    8 0.5449    3  1.554    4  0.597   25 -0.304
ATLANTA       10  7 404 374  0.026  8.593    9  0.170    9  0.150   16  0.029    9 0.5230   16  1.208   18 -0.008   14  0.065
HOUSTON       11  7 425 308 -0.052  8.148   10  0.142   10  0.102    9  0.154   10 0.5177   22  1.145   14  0.037    6  0.271
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 396 328  0.105  8.423   11  0.080   11  0.041    5  0.275   17 0.5010   11  1.338    6  0.413   10  0.137
DALLAS         8  8 369 347  0.077  8.387   12  0.047   12  0.037   15  0.030   19 0.4975   15  1.228   15  0.019   15  0.040
CINCINNATI     9  8 354 354 -0.035  8.342   13  0.035   13  0.023   20 -0.083   16 0.5023   14  1.307   16  0.012   22 -0.178
TENNESSEE      9  7 325 317 -0.123  7.280   14  0.027   14  0.021   18 -0.050   18 0.4981   23  1.144   22 -0.168   13  0.068
NY JETS        8  8 377 363  0.059  8.269   15  0.019   15  0.015   14  0.043   15 0.5028   13  1.322   10  0.159   20 -0.073
ARIZONA        8  8 312 348 -0.038  8.026   16 -0.002   16 -0.007   21 -0.116   20 0.4899   19  1.190   23 -0.176   19 -0.056
CHICAGO        8  8 353 341 -0.007  7.948   17 -0.013   18 -0.021   17 -0.049   12 0.5082   25  1.099   24 -0.222   11  0.124
DENVER         9  9 348 458 -0.034  9.174   18 -0.019   17 -0.015   29 -0.277   11 0.5141   18  1.192   25 -0.334   24 -0.219
SAN DIEGO      8  8 406 377 -0.071  7.489   19 -0.031   20 -0.067   12  0.058   13 0.5067    8  1.433    7  0.329   23 -0.213
OAKLAND        8  8 359 433 -0.090  7.782   20 -0.044   19 -0.046   25 -0.235   14 0.5036    6  1.476   12  0.099   31 -0.570
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE        7  9 321 315  0.017  8.144   21 -0.090   21 -0.094   13  0.058   22 0.4807   17  1.193   17  0.002   12  0.115
KANSAS CITY    7  9 212 338 -0.122  7.779   22 -0.142   22 -0.150   27 -0.254   21 0.4850   32  0.671   31 -0.893    3  0.385
MIAMI          6 10 329 313  0.052  8.262   23 -0.150   24 -0.194   11  0.106   24 0.4625   26  1.043   20 -0.136    4  0.347
BUFFALO        6 10 372 434  0.044  8.480   24 -0.160   23 -0.170   22 -0.174   23 0.4662    7  1.475   11  0.158   30 -0.506
CAROLINA       6 10 406 429 -0.080  7.693   25 -0.233   26 -0.252   19 -0.064   25 0.4510    5  1.513    8  0.325   29 -0.453
WASHINGTON     5 11 288 367  0.060  8.677   26 -0.243   25 -0.251   23 -0.177   26 0.4360   24  1.100   26 -0.350   16 -0.004
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 243 329 -0.096  7.875   27 -0.328   27 -0.345   26 -0.241   27 0.4255   30  0.871   29 -0.677    8  0.195
TAMPA BAY      4 12 287 494 -0.034  8.612   28 -0.377   28 -0.382   32 -0.494   28 0.4226   12  1.323   27 -0.378   32 -0.611
CLEVELAND      4 12 218 307 -0.077  8.017   29 -0.436   29 -0.450   24 -0.228   29 0.4159   31  0.818   30 -0.720    7  0.264
MINNESOTA      3 13 340 449 -0.069  8.061   30 -0.523   30 -0.545   28 -0.257   30 0.4123   10  1.353   19 -0.100   28 -0.415
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS      2 14 193 407  0.061  9.224   31 -0.526   31 -0.546   31 -0.484   31 0.3976   29  0.872   32 -0.919   18 -0.049
INDIANAPOLIS   2 14 243 430 -0.148  8.014   32 -0.632   32 -0.668   30 -0.392   32 0.3735   20  1.184   28 -0.460   26 -0.324

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER         9  9 348 458 -0.034  9.174   18 -0.019   17 -0.015   29 -0.277   11 0.5141   18  1.192   25 -0.334   24 -0.219
SAN DIEGO      8  8 406 377 -0.071  7.489   19 -0.031   20 -0.067   12  0.058   13 0.5067    8  1.433    7  0.329   23 -0.213
OAKLAND        8  8 359 433 -0.090  7.782   20 -0.044   19 -0.046   25 -0.235   14 0.5036    6  1.476   12  0.099   31 -0.570
KANSAS CITY    7  9 212 338 -0.122  7.779   22 -0.142   22 -0.150   27 -0.254   21 0.4850   32  0.671   31 -0.893    3  0.385

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HOUSTON       11  7 425 308 -0.052  8.148   10  0.142   10  0.102    9  0.154   10 0.5177   22  1.145   14  0.037    6  0.271
TENNESSEE      9  7 325 317 -0.123  7.280   14  0.027   14  0.021   18 -0.050   18 0.4981   23  1.144   22 -0.168   13  0.068
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 243 329 -0.096  7.875   27 -0.328   27 -0.345   26 -0.241   27 0.4255   30  0.871   29 -0.677    8  0.195
INDIANAPOLIS   2 14 243 430 -0.148  8.014   32 -0.632   32 -0.668   30 -0.392   32 0.3735   20  1.184   28 -0.460   26 -0.324

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE     13  5 418 302  0.051  8.914    6  0.398    6  0.379    7  0.240    6 0.5655   21  1.177    9  0.163    5  0.317
PITTSBURGH    12  5 348 256 -0.020  7.939    7  0.312    7  0.303    8  0.199    7 0.5598   28  0.943   21 -0.158    2  0.555
CINCINNATI     9  8 354 354 -0.035  8.342   13  0.035   13  0.023   20 -0.083   16 0.5023   14  1.307   16  0.012   22 -0.178
CLEVELAND      4 12 218 307 -0.077  8.017   29 -0.436   29 -0.450   24 -0.228   29 0.4159   31  0.818   30 -0.720    7  0.264

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   15  4 598 393  0.040  9.194    2  0.520    2  0.495    2  0.404    2 0.5911    4  1.549    3  0.848   17 -0.039
NY JETS        8  8 377 363  0.059  8.269   15  0.019   15  0.015   14  0.043   15 0.5028   13  1.322   10  0.159   20 -0.073
MIAMI          6 10 329 313  0.052  8.262   23 -0.150   24 -0.194   11  0.106   24 0.4625   26  1.043   20 -0.136    4  0.347
BUFFALO        6 10 372 434  0.044  8.480   24 -0.160   23 -0.170   22 -0.174   23 0.4662    7  1.475   11  0.158   30 -0.506

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN FRANCISCO 14  4 433 281  0.060  8.758    3  0.498    3  0.472    4  0.330    3 0.5850   27  1.031   13  0.074    1  0.585
ARIZONA        8  8 312 348 -0.038  8.026   16 -0.002   16 -0.007   21 -0.116   20 0.4899   19  1.190   23 -0.176   19 -0.056
SEATTLE        7  9 321 315  0.017  8.144   21 -0.090   21 -0.094   13  0.058   22 0.4807   17  1.193   17  0.002   12  0.115
ST. LOUIS      2 14 193 407  0.061  9.224   31 -0.526   31 -0.546   31 -0.484   31 0.3976   29  0.872   32 -0.919   18 -0.049

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ORLEANS   14  4 624 403  0.027  8.421    4  0.455    4  0.423    1  0.456    4 0.5814    1  1.657    1  1.067   21 -0.154
ATLANTA       10  7 404 374  0.026  8.593    9  0.170    9  0.150   16  0.029    9 0.5230   16  1.208   18 -0.008   14  0.065
CAROLINA       6 10 406 429 -0.080  7.693   25 -0.233   26 -0.252   19 -0.064   25 0.4510    5  1.513    8  0.325   29 -0.453
TAMPA BAY      4 12 287 494 -0.034  8.612   28 -0.377   28 -0.382   32 -0.494   28 0.4226   12  1.323   27 -0.378   32 -0.611

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     15  2 580 396  0.005  7.870    1  0.626    1  0.610    6  0.275    1 0.6239    2  1.654    2  0.882   27 -0.332
DETROIT       10  7 502 432  0.078  8.709    8  0.186    8  0.167   10  0.146    8 0.5449    3  1.554    4  0.597   25 -0.304
CHICAGO        8  8 353 341 -0.007  7.948   17 -0.013   18 -0.021   17 -0.049   12 0.5082   25  1.099   24 -0.222   11  0.124
MINNESOTA      3 13 340 449 -0.069  8.061   30 -0.523   30 -0.545   28 -0.257   30 0.4123   10  1.353   19 -0.100   28 -0.415

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NY GIANTS     13  7 496 456  0.276 11.749    5  0.436    5  0.421    3  0.369    5 0.5710    9  1.367    5  0.547    9  0.191
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 396 328  0.105  8.423   11  0.080   11  0.041    5  0.275   17 0.5010   11  1.338    6  0.413   10  0.137
DALLAS         8  8 369 347  0.077  8.387   12  0.047   12  0.037   15  0.030   19 0.4975   15  1.228   15  0.019   15  0.040
WASHINGTON     5 11 288 367  0.060  8.677   26 -0.243   25 -0.251   23 -0.177   26 0.4360   24  1.100   26 -0.350   16 -0.004

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   35 32 0.522    1  0.200
NFC EAST   34 34 0.500    2  0.176
NFC NORTH  36 30 0.545    3  0.130
AFC NORTH  38 30 0.559    4  0.094
NFC SOUTH  34 33 0.507    5 -0.036
NFC WEST   31 35 0.470    6 -0.122
AFC SOUTH  27 39 0.409    7 -0.254
AFC WEST   32 34 0.485    8 -0.335

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.225 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:04:15 2024
games through: Sun Feb  5 2012

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