Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   14  3 539 341  0.288  9.836    1  0.744    1  0.719    1  0.684    1 0.6334    1  1.593    1  1.188    7  0.179
PITTSBURGH    14  5 455 306  0.234 10.697    2  0.577    2  0.559    3  0.502    2 0.6014   24  1.083    6  0.302    2  0.703
GREEN BAY     14  6 509 316  0.274 11.478    3  0.540    4  0.510    2  0.656    3 0.5954   23  1.090    3  0.465    1  0.848
NY JETS       13  6 431 365  0.302 11.355    4  0.535    3  0.532    5  0.310    4 0.5928   21  1.127   14  0.164    4  0.457
BALTIMORE     13  5 411 308  0.160  9.618    5  0.503    5  0.486    4  0.349    5 0.5885   27  1.062   15  0.123    3  0.575
ATLANTA       13  4 435 336  0.003  8.123    6  0.483    6  0.464    8  0.173    6 0.5868   13  1.325    8  0.285   13  0.061
CHICAGO       12  6 383 331  0.114  9.610    7  0.369    7  0.346    7  0.179    7 0.5647   26  1.070   18 -0.037    5  0.395
PHILADELPHIA  10  7 455 398  0.099  9.099    8  0.216    8  0.192   10  0.134   10 0.5284    4  1.496    2  0.491   22 -0.222
NY GIANTS     10  6 394 347 -0.017  7.784    9  0.191    9  0.182    9  0.141   11 0.5257   15  1.300   13  0.219   12  0.064
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7 451 405  0.012  8.530   10  0.158   10  0.142   11  0.102   13 0.5114    7  1.416    4  0.342   21 -0.138
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ORLEANS   11  6 420 348 -0.174  7.237   11  0.137   12  0.117   13  0.063    8 0.5370   10  1.361   12  0.225   20 -0.099
TAMPA BAY     10  6 341 318 -0.151  7.143   12  0.126   11  0.121   14  0.045    9 0.5310   18  1.174   20 -0.043   10  0.132
MIAMI          7  9 273 333  0.231  9.656   13  0.055   13  0.051   17 -0.062   12 0.5115   31  0.988   26 -0.375    6  0.250
KANSAS CITY   10  7 373 356 -0.216  7.263   14  0.024   14  0.013   25 -0.188   14 0.4892   20  1.149   24 -0.306   18 -0.069
SAN DIEGO      9  7 441 322 -0.162  6.730   15  0.018   15 -0.032    6  0.198   16 0.4843   14  1.308    7  0.286   11  0.109
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 353 419 -0.072  7.878   16 -0.021   16 -0.040   24 -0.173   18 0.4714   12  1.350   17 -0.027   27 -0.320
DETROIT        6 10 362 369  0.172  9.118   17 -0.094   17 -0.112   12  0.092   15 0.4849    9  1.364   11  0.258   19 -0.074
MINNESOTA      6 10 281 348  0.140  9.238   18 -0.124   18 -0.120   21 -0.131   17 0.4831   28  1.024   27 -0.401    8  0.139
OAKLAND        8  8 410 371 -0.185  6.932   19 -0.129   19 -0.132   15  0.020   20 0.4673    6  1.420    9  0.265   23 -0.226
WASHINGTON     6 10 302 377  0.045  8.575   20 -0.163   20 -0.162   23 -0.170   23 0.4582   22  1.124   25 -0.320   16 -0.019
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS         6 10 394 436  0.019  8.367   21 -0.191   21 -0.197   18 -0.075   24 0.4565    2  1.528    5  0.329   29 -0.479
HOUSTON        6 10 390 427  0.009  8.262   22 -0.211   22 -0.213   16 -0.048   26 0.4484    5  1.464   10  0.262   28 -0.358
TENNESSEE      6 10 356 339 -0.006  8.065   23 -0.217   23 -0.229   20 -0.092   27 0.4446   19  1.166   22 -0.189   14  0.006
CLEVELAND      5 11 271 332  0.109  9.012   24 -0.228   24 -0.238   22 -0.155   19 0.4676   29  1.007   28 -0.445    9  0.136
SEATTLE        8 10 375 478 -0.292  7.683   25 -0.241   25 -0.257   29 -0.394   21 0.4618    8  1.413   21 -0.158   30 -0.629
BUFFALO        4 12 283 425  0.193  9.721   26 -0.294   26 -0.306   26 -0.233   22 0.4585   17  1.267   23 -0.199   26 -0.267
ST. LOUIS      7  9 289 328 -0.368  6.171   27 -0.317   27 -0.340   28 -0.322   28 0.4437   30  0.991   31 -0.631   15 -0.013
CINCINNATI     4 12 322 395  0.159  9.294   28 -0.326   28 -0.342   19 -0.084   25 0.4510   11  1.352   16  0.066   24 -0.233
SAN FRANCISCO  6 10 305 346 -0.320  6.588   29 -0.388   29 -0.414   27 -0.242   29 0.4352   25  1.075   29 -0.453   17 -0.032
DENVER         4 12 344 471 -0.174  7.515   30 -0.504   30 -0.525   30 -0.409   31 0.3969    3  1.506   19 -0.038   32 -0.780
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ARIZONA        5 11 289 434 -0.389  6.348   31 -0.523   31 -0.539   31 -0.624   30 0.4064   16  1.281   30 -0.572   31 -0.676
CAROLINA       2 14 196 408 -0.165  8.098   32 -0.702   32 -0.736   32 -0.638   32 0.3907   32  0.908   32 -1.040   25 -0.236

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KANSAS CITY   10  7 373 356 -0.216  7.263   14  0.024   14  0.013   25 -0.188   14 0.4892   20  1.149   24 -0.306   18 -0.069
SAN DIEGO      9  7 441 322 -0.162  6.730   15  0.018   15 -0.032    6  0.198   16 0.4843   14  1.308    7  0.286   11  0.109
OAKLAND        8  8 410 371 -0.185  6.932   19 -0.129   19 -0.132   15  0.020   20 0.4673    6  1.420    9  0.265   23 -0.226
DENVER         4 12 344 471 -0.174  7.515   30 -0.504   30 -0.525   30 -0.409   31 0.3969    3  1.506   19 -0.038   32 -0.780

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7 451 405  0.012  8.530   10  0.158   10  0.142   11  0.102   13 0.5114    7  1.416    4  0.342   21 -0.138
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 353 419 -0.072  7.878   16 -0.021   16 -0.040   24 -0.173   18 0.4714   12  1.350   17 -0.027   27 -0.320
HOUSTON        6 10 390 427  0.009  8.262   22 -0.211   22 -0.213   16 -0.048   26 0.4484    5  1.464   10  0.262   28 -0.358
TENNESSEE      6 10 356 339 -0.006  8.065   23 -0.217   23 -0.229   20 -0.092   27 0.4446   19  1.166   22 -0.189   14  0.006

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    14  5 455 306  0.234 10.697    2  0.577    2  0.559    3  0.502    2 0.6014   24  1.083    6  0.302    2  0.703
BALTIMORE     13  5 411 308  0.160  9.618    5  0.503    5  0.486    4  0.349    5 0.5885   27  1.062   15  0.123    3  0.575
CLEVELAND      5 11 271 332  0.109  9.012   24 -0.228   24 -0.238   22 -0.155   19 0.4676   29  1.007   28 -0.445    9  0.136
CINCINNATI     4 12 322 395  0.159  9.294   28 -0.326   28 -0.342   19 -0.084   25 0.4510   11  1.352   16  0.066   24 -0.233

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   14  3 539 341  0.288  9.836    1  0.744    1  0.719    1  0.684    1 0.6334    1  1.593    1  1.188    7  0.179
NY JETS       13  6 431 365  0.302 11.355    4  0.535    3  0.532    5  0.310    4 0.5928   21  1.127   14  0.164    4  0.457
MIAMI          7  9 273 333  0.231  9.656   13  0.055   13  0.051   17 -0.062   12 0.5115   31  0.988   26 -0.375    6  0.250
BUFFALO        4 12 283 425  0.193  9.721   26 -0.294   26 -0.306   26 -0.233   22 0.4585   17  1.267   23 -0.199   26 -0.267

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE        8 10 375 478 -0.292  7.683   25 -0.241   25 -0.257   29 -0.394   21 0.4618    8  1.413   21 -0.158   30 -0.629
ST. LOUIS      7  9 289 328 -0.368  6.171   27 -0.317   27 -0.340   28 -0.322   28 0.4437   30  0.991   31 -0.631   15 -0.013
SAN FRANCISCO  6 10 305 346 -0.320  6.588   29 -0.388   29 -0.414   27 -0.242   29 0.4352   25  1.075   29 -0.453   17 -0.032
ARIZONA        5 11 289 434 -0.389  6.348   31 -0.523   31 -0.539   31 -0.624   30 0.4064   16  1.281   30 -0.572   31 -0.676

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA       13  4 435 336  0.003  8.123    6  0.483    6  0.464    8  0.173    6 0.5868   13  1.325    8  0.285   13  0.061
NEW ORLEANS   11  6 420 348 -0.174  7.237   11  0.137   12  0.117   13  0.063    8 0.5370   10  1.361   12  0.225   20 -0.099
TAMPA BAY     10  6 341 318 -0.151  7.143   12  0.126   11  0.121   14  0.045    9 0.5310   18  1.174   20 -0.043   10  0.132
CAROLINA       2 14 196 408 -0.165  8.098   32 -0.702   32 -0.736   32 -0.638   32 0.3907   32  0.908   32 -1.040   25 -0.236

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     14  6 509 316  0.274 11.478    3  0.540    4  0.510    2  0.656    3 0.5954   23  1.090    3  0.465    1  0.848
CHICAGO       12  6 383 331  0.114  9.610    7  0.369    7  0.346    7  0.179    7 0.5647   26  1.070   18 -0.037    5  0.395
DETROIT        6 10 362 369  0.172  9.118   17 -0.094   17 -0.112   12  0.092   15 0.4849    9  1.364   11  0.258   19 -0.074
MINNESOTA      6 10 281 348  0.140  9.238   18 -0.124   18 -0.120   21 -0.131   17 0.4831   28  1.024   27 -0.401    8  0.139

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  10  7 455 398  0.099  9.099    8  0.216    8  0.192   10  0.134   10 0.5284    4  1.496    2  0.491   22 -0.222
NY GIANTS     10  6 394 347 -0.017  7.784    9  0.191    9  0.182    9  0.141   11 0.5257   15  1.300   13  0.219   12  0.064
WASHINGTON     6 10 302 377  0.045  8.575   20 -0.163   20 -0.162   23 -0.170   23 0.4582   22  1.124   25 -0.320   16 -0.019
DALLAS         6 10 394 436  0.019  8.367   21 -0.191   21 -0.197   18 -0.075   24 0.4565    2  1.528    5  0.329   29 -0.479

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  38 32 0.543    1  0.293
AFC EAST   38 30 0.559    2  0.274
AFC NORTH  36 33 0.522    3  0.251
NFC EAST   32 33 0.492    4  0.038
AFC SOUTH  30 35 0.462    5 -0.057
NFC SOUTH  36 30 0.545    6 -0.130
AFC WEST   31 34 0.477    7 -0.141
NFC WEST   26 40 0.394    8 -0.662

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.141 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.020 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:47:36 2020
games through: Sun Feb  6 2011

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