Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ORLEANS   16  3 617 400  0.154  9.659    1  0.824    2  0.769    2  0.527    2 0.6102    1  1.634    1  1.145   18 -0.092
INDIANAPOLIS  16  3 483 358  0.100  9.560    2  0.811    1  0.778    9  0.321    1 0.6155   14  1.299    7  0.449    9  0.194
SAN DIEGO     13  4 468 337 -0.053  7.561    3  0.531    3  0.470    8  0.324    3 0.5763    5  1.450    4  0.664   14 -0.015
MINNESOTA     13  5 532 346  0.042  8.262    4  0.496    4  0.432    1  0.536    5 0.5547    7  1.396    3  0.797    7  0.275
DALLAS        12  6 398 298  0.099  9.041    5  0.436    5  0.381    7  0.357    4 0.5558   28  0.934   18  0.033    2  0.680
PHILADELPHIA  11  6 443 371  0.067  8.524    6  0.338    6  0.311   12  0.132    7 0.5487    4  1.469    6  0.500   23 -0.235
NEW ENGLAND   10  7 441 318  0.247  9.448    7  0.335    7  0.310    5  0.412    8 0.5476   13  1.300    5  0.540    6  0.283
NY JETS       11  8 406 294  0.223 10.335    8  0.296    8  0.266    3  0.511    6 0.5533   29  0.915   13  0.166    1  0.856
ATLANTA        9  7 363 325  0.191  8.742    9  0.261    9  0.238   11  0.234    9 0.5300   16  1.238   11  0.281   10  0.188
GREEN BAY     11  6 506 348 -0.050  7.317   10  0.228   10  0.196    4  0.459   13 0.5219    3  1.508    2  0.883   12  0.035
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE     10  8 427 295  0.151  9.095   11  0.195   12  0.167    6  0.381   10 0.5267   21  1.040   12  0.180    3  0.582
CINCINNATI    10  7 319 315  0.014  8.471   12  0.184   11  0.192   19 -0.090   11 0.5229   25  0.989   23 -0.350   11  0.171
CAROLINA       8  8 315 308  0.228  9.164   13  0.141   14  0.149   10  0.311   15 0.5188   23  1.030   17  0.097    4  0.524
ARIZONA       11  7 440 415 -0.096  8.219   14  0.137   13  0.162   20 -0.091   14 0.5194    9  1.368   15  0.131   26 -0.314
PITTSBURGH     9  7 368 324 -0.059  7.400   15  0.028   18  0.047   15  0.058   17 0.5100   15  1.264   14  0.138   15 -0.023
HOUSTON        9  7 388 333 -0.064  7.302   16  0.027   17  0.047   13  0.125   12 0.5223    8  1.379    9  0.362   19 -0.112
NY GIANTS      8  8 402 427  0.061  8.310   17  0.025   15  0.048   21 -0.118   18 0.5080    2  1.553    8  0.374   31 -0.610
MIAMI          7  9 360 390  0.221  9.271   18  0.023   16  0.048   16  0.009   19 0.5068    6  1.408   10  0.288   24 -0.271
TENNESSEE      8  8 354 402 -0.011  8.062   19 -0.017   19  0.007   17 -0.088   16 0.5104   10  1.364   16  0.129   25 -0.306
DENVER         8  8 326 324 -0.023  7.740   20 -0.056   20 -0.038   22 -0.122   20 0.5034   20  1.140   19 -0.201   16 -0.043
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN FRANCISCO  8  8 330 281 -0.136  6.814   21 -0.151   21 -0.143   14  0.080   21 0.4800   27  0.941   22 -0.236    5  0.395
BUFFALO        6 10 258 326  0.104  8.800   22 -0.162   22 -0.149   18 -0.089   23 0.4751   30  0.914   25 -0.435    8  0.257
CHICAGO        7  9 327 375 -0.090  7.801   23 -0.169   23 -0.159   23 -0.220   24 0.4617   17  1.204   20 -0.218   22 -0.222
JACKSONVILLE   7  9 290 380 -0.148  7.605   24 -0.179   24 -0.171   26 -0.371   22 0.4788   18  1.188   24 -0.390   27 -0.353
OAKLAND        5 11 197 379 -0.077  8.190   25 -0.364   25 -0.369   30 -0.547   25 0.4429   31  0.851   31 -0.962   20 -0.133
CLEVELAND      5 11 245 375 -0.132  7.756   26 -0.406   26 -0.429   27 -0.389   26 0.4322   24  1.019   29 -0.615   21 -0.163
TAMPA BAY      3 13 244 400  0.187  9.524   27 -0.422   27 -0.441   25 -0.275   27 0.4186   22  1.035   26 -0.482   17 -0.068
SEATTLE        5 11 280 390 -0.284  7.121   28 -0.512   28 -0.538   29 -0.540   28 0.4186   19  1.142   30 -0.617   29 -0.464
KANSAS CITY    4 12 294 424 -0.167  7.460   29 -0.557   29 -0.585   28 -0.408   29 0.4175   11  1.336   21 -0.229   30 -0.586
WASHINGTON     4 12 266 336 -0.126  7.679   30 -0.564   30 -0.595   24 -0.259   30 0.4137   26  0.962   27 -0.551   13  0.033
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        2 14 262 494 -0.206  8.118   31 -0.812   31 -0.867   31 -0.740   31 0.3659   12  1.313   28 -0.593   32 -0.887
ST. LOUIS      1 15 175 436 -0.227  7.555   32 -0.944   32 -1.027   32 -0.859   32 0.3471   32  0.816   32 -1.310   28 -0.408

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO     13  4 468 337 -0.053  7.561    3  0.531    3  0.470    8  0.324    3 0.5763    5  1.450    4  0.664   14 -0.015
DENVER         8  8 326 324 -0.023  7.740   20 -0.056   20 -0.038   22 -0.122   20 0.5034   20  1.140   19 -0.201   16 -0.043
OAKLAND        5 11 197 379 -0.077  8.190   25 -0.364   25 -0.369   30 -0.547   25 0.4429   31  0.851   31 -0.962   20 -0.133
KANSAS CITY    4 12 294 424 -0.167  7.460   29 -0.557   29 -0.585   28 -0.408   29 0.4175   11  1.336   21 -0.229   30 -0.586

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  16  3 483 358  0.100  9.560    2  0.811    1  0.778    9  0.321    1 0.6155   14  1.299    7  0.449    9  0.194
HOUSTON        9  7 388 333 -0.064  7.302   16  0.027   17  0.047   13  0.125   12 0.5223    8  1.379    9  0.362   19 -0.112
TENNESSEE      8  8 354 402 -0.011  8.062   19 -0.017   19  0.007   17 -0.088   16 0.5104   10  1.364   16  0.129   25 -0.306
JACKSONVILLE   7  9 290 380 -0.148  7.605   24 -0.179   24 -0.171   26 -0.371   22 0.4788   18  1.188   24 -0.390   27 -0.353

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE     10  8 427 295  0.151  9.095   11  0.195   12  0.167    6  0.381   10 0.5267   21  1.040   12  0.180    3  0.582
CINCINNATI    10  7 319 315  0.014  8.471   12  0.184   11  0.192   19 -0.090   11 0.5229   25  0.989   23 -0.350   11  0.171
PITTSBURGH     9  7 368 324 -0.059  7.400   15  0.028   18  0.047   15  0.058   17 0.5100   15  1.264   14  0.138   15 -0.023
CLEVELAND      5 11 245 375 -0.132  7.756   26 -0.406   26 -0.429   27 -0.389   26 0.4322   24  1.019   29 -0.615   21 -0.163

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   10  7 441 318  0.247  9.448    7  0.335    7  0.310    5  0.412    8 0.5476   13  1.300    5  0.540    6  0.283
NY JETS       11  8 406 294  0.223 10.335    8  0.296    8  0.266    3  0.511    6 0.5533   29  0.915   13  0.166    1  0.856
MIAMI          7  9 360 390  0.221  9.271   18  0.023   16  0.048   16  0.009   19 0.5068    6  1.408   10  0.288   24 -0.271
BUFFALO        6 10 258 326  0.104  8.800   22 -0.162   22 -0.149   18 -0.089   23 0.4751   30  0.914   25 -0.435    8  0.257

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ARIZONA       11  7 440 415 -0.096  8.219   14  0.137   13  0.162   20 -0.091   14 0.5194    9  1.368   15  0.131   26 -0.314
SAN FRANCISCO  8  8 330 281 -0.136  6.814   21 -0.151   21 -0.143   14  0.080   21 0.4800   27  0.941   22 -0.236    5  0.395
SEATTLE        5 11 280 390 -0.284  7.121   28 -0.512   28 -0.538   29 -0.540   28 0.4186   19  1.142   30 -0.617   29 -0.464
ST. LOUIS      1 15 175 436 -0.227  7.555   32 -0.944   32 -1.027   32 -0.859   32 0.3471   32  0.816   32 -1.310   28 -0.408

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ORLEANS   16  3 617 400  0.154  9.659    1  0.824    2  0.769    2  0.527    2 0.6102    1  1.634    1  1.145   18 -0.092
ATLANTA        9  7 363 325  0.191  8.742    9  0.261    9  0.238   11  0.234    9 0.5300   16  1.238   11  0.281   10  0.188
CAROLINA       8  8 315 308  0.228  9.164   13  0.141   14  0.149   10  0.311   15 0.5188   23  1.030   17  0.097    4  0.524
TAMPA BAY      3 13 244 400  0.187  9.524   27 -0.422   27 -0.441   25 -0.275   27 0.4186   22  1.035   26 -0.482   17 -0.068

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MINNESOTA     13  5 532 346  0.042  8.262    4  0.496    4  0.432    1  0.536    5 0.5547    7  1.396    3  0.797    7  0.275
GREEN BAY     11  6 506 348 -0.050  7.317   10  0.228   10  0.196    4  0.459   13 0.5219    3  1.508    2  0.883   12  0.035
CHICAGO        7  9 327 375 -0.090  7.801   23 -0.169   23 -0.159   23 -0.220   24 0.4617   17  1.204   20 -0.218   22 -0.222
DETROIT        2 14 262 494 -0.206  8.118   31 -0.812   31 -0.867   31 -0.740   31 0.3659   12  1.313   28 -0.593   32 -0.887

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS        12  6 398 298  0.099  9.041    5  0.436    5  0.381    7  0.357    4 0.5558   28  0.934   18  0.033    2  0.680
PHILADELPHIA  11  6 443 371  0.067  8.524    6  0.338    6  0.311   12  0.132    7 0.5487    4  1.469    6  0.500   23 -0.235
NY GIANTS      8  8 402 427  0.061  8.310   17  0.025   15  0.048   21 -0.118   18 0.5080    2  1.553    8  0.374   31 -0.610
WASHINGTON     4 12 266 336 -0.126  7.679   30 -0.564   30 -0.595   24 -0.259   30 0.4137   26  0.962   27 -0.551   13  0.033

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   34 34 0.500    1  0.328
NFC SOUTH  36 31 0.537    2  0.225
NFC EAST   35 32 0.522    3  0.088
AFC NORTH  34 33 0.507    4 -0.001
NFC NORTH  33 34 0.493    5 -0.004
AFC SOUTH  40 27 0.597    6 -0.017
AFC WEST   30 35 0.462    7 -0.278
NFC WEST   25 41 0.379    8 -0.467

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.180 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:47:18 2020
games through: Sun Feb  7 2010

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