Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     17  2 440 369  0.068  9.824    1  0.795    1  0.781    8  0.161    1 0.6314   26  1.141   15 -0.017    4  0.339
LIONS      15  3 595 387  0.139  9.437    2  0.673    2  0.651    3  0.499    2 0.6151    3  1.557    1  0.898   13  0.100
EAGLES     17  3 568 358  0.014  9.361    3  0.658    3  0.633    2  0.518    3 0.6101   14  1.253    6  0.483    1  0.553
VIKINGS    14  4 441 359  0.055  9.125    4  0.551    4  0.522   12  0.142    4 0.5855   15  1.242   10  0.094    8  0.190
BILLS      15  5 612 432  0.095 10.110    5  0.517    5  0.486    4  0.426    5 0.5787    4  1.541    3  0.800   16  0.051
RAVENS     13  6 571 402  0.154 10.082    6  0.412    7  0.373    1  0.519    6 0.5761    5  1.485    2  0.811    6  0.228
COMMANDERS 14  6 576 497  0.037  9.947    7  0.402    6  0.383   10  0.158    7 0.5662    2  1.574    4  0.584   26 -0.267
PACKERS    11  7 470 360  0.157  9.618    8  0.277    8  0.255    5  0.347    8 0.5482   12  1.318    8  0.400    5  0.293
RAMS       11  8 416 423  0.121 10.427    9  0.212    9  0.210    9  0.159    9 0.5353   17  1.235    9  0.102    7  0.217
SEAHAWKS   10  7 375 368  0.066  8.935   10  0.174   10  0.167   13  0.097   11 0.5266   19  1.225   14  0.026   10  0.168
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHARGERS   11  7 414 333 -0.018  8.672   11  0.173   11  0.167   11  0.153   10 0.5301   27  1.130   17 -0.039    3  0.345
TEXANS     11  8 418 407 -0.023  9.414   12  0.121   12  0.117   16  0.006   15 0.5218   21  1.218   19 -0.073   14  0.086
STEELERS   10  8 394 375  0.051  9.312   13  0.116   13  0.112   17 -0.012   12 0.5255   24  1.148   20 -0.182   11  0.158
BRONCOS    10  8 432 342  0.058  9.071   14  0.111   14  0.106    6  0.252   13 0.5230   25  1.146   11  0.080    2  0.424
BUCCANEERS 10  8 522 408  0.002  8.652   15  0.078   15  0.075    7  0.216   14 0.5230    6  1.449    7  0.454   17 -0.021
BENGALS     9  8 472 434 -0.058  8.056   16 -0.002   16 -0.007   14  0.090   16 0.5043    1  1.599    5  0.554   30 -0.374
CARDINALS   8  9 400 379  0.079  8.999   17 -0.019   17 -0.023   15  0.069   17 0.4969   13  1.273   13  0.061   15  0.077
FALCONS     8  9 389 423 -0.078  8.262   18 -0.083   18 -0.090   20 -0.130   18 0.4940   10  1.346   16 -0.038   23 -0.221
COLTS       8  9 377 427 -0.109  8.122   19 -0.108   19 -0.117   23 -0.237   20 0.4683    9  1.410   18 -0.056   31 -0.418
DOLPHINS    8  9 345 364 -0.139  7.831   20 -0.132   20 -0.142   18 -0.066   22 0.4594   28  1.130   23 -0.259   12  0.126
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS     7 10 350 468 -0.061  8.688   21 -0.153   21 -0.161   25 -0.286   19 0.4791   11  1.327   22 -0.221   29 -0.351
49ERS       6 11 389 436  0.101  9.387   22 -0.162   22 -0.187   19 -0.116   21 0.4673    8  1.415   12  0.073   27 -0.306
BEARS       5 12 310 370  0.027  9.063   23 -0.305   23 -0.333   21 -0.162   23 0.4416   31  0.999   29 -0.511    9  0.188
JETS        5 12 338 404 -0.051  8.460   24 -0.360   24 -0.392   22 -0.196   27 0.4204   22  1.217   24 -0.277   20 -0.115
SAINTS      5 12 338 398 -0.124  8.170   25 -0.403   26 -0.439   28 -0.326   24 0.4333   23  1.167   27 -0.472   21 -0.180
PANTHERS    5 12 341 534 -0.124  8.494   26 -0.405   25 -0.402   31 -0.447   25 0.4310    7  1.444   21 -0.215   32 -0.678
RAIDERS     4 13 309 434 -0.035  8.893   27 -0.448   27 -0.458   24 -0.271   26 0.4213   16  1.242   25 -0.320   24 -0.223
PATRIOTS    4 13 289 417 -0.084  8.386   28 -0.472   28 -0.482   26 -0.300   31 0.3945   29  1.109   30 -0.517   19 -0.082
JAGUARS     4 13 320 435 -0.152  8.116   29 -0.529   29 -0.554   27 -0.300   30 0.3969   18  1.232   26 -0.362   25 -0.238
BROWNS      3 14 258 435 -0.049  9.013   30 -0.539   30 -0.560   32 -0.499   29 0.4028   30  1.051   31 -0.787   22 -0.210
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TITANS      3 14 311 460 -0.074  8.659   31 -0.572   31 -0.596   29 -0.403   32 0.3880   20  1.225   28 -0.474   28 -0.331
GIANTS      3 14 273 415 -0.091  8.630   32 -0.580   32 -0.604   30 -0.419   28 0.4076   32  0.980   32 -0.791   18 -0.048

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     17  2 440 369  0.068  9.824    1  0.795    1  0.781    8  0.161    1 0.6314   26  1.141   15 -0.017    4  0.339
CHARGERS   11  7 414 333 -0.018  8.672   11  0.173   11  0.167   11  0.153   10 0.5301   27  1.130   17 -0.039    3  0.345
BRONCOS    10  8 432 342  0.058  9.071   14  0.111   14  0.106    6  0.252   13 0.5230   25  1.146   11  0.080    2  0.424
RAIDERS     4 13 309 434 -0.035  8.893   27 -0.448   27 -0.458   24 -0.271   26 0.4213   16  1.242   25 -0.320   24 -0.223

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     11  8 418 407 -0.023  9.414   12  0.121   12  0.117   16  0.006   15 0.5218   21  1.218   19 -0.073   14  0.086
COLTS       8  9 377 427 -0.109  8.122   19 -0.108   19 -0.117   23 -0.237   20 0.4683    9  1.410   18 -0.056   31 -0.418
JAGUARS     4 13 320 435 -0.152  8.116   29 -0.529   29 -0.554   27 -0.300   30 0.3969   18  1.232   26 -0.362   25 -0.238
TITANS      3 14 311 460 -0.074  8.659   31 -0.572   31 -0.596   29 -0.403   32 0.3880   20  1.225   28 -0.474   28 -0.331

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     13  6 571 402  0.154 10.082    6  0.412    7  0.373    1  0.519    6 0.5761    5  1.485    2  0.811    6  0.228
STEELERS   10  8 394 375  0.051  9.312   13  0.116   13  0.112   17 -0.012   12 0.5255   24  1.148   20 -0.182   11  0.158
BENGALS     9  8 472 434 -0.058  8.056   16 -0.002   16 -0.007   14  0.090   16 0.5043    1  1.599    5  0.554   30 -0.374
BROWNS      3 14 258 435 -0.049  9.013   30 -0.539   30 -0.560   32 -0.499   29 0.4028   30  1.051   31 -0.787   22 -0.210

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      15  5 612 432  0.095 10.110    5  0.517    5  0.486    4  0.426    5 0.5787    4  1.541    3  0.800   16  0.051
DOLPHINS    8  9 345 364 -0.139  7.831   20 -0.132   20 -0.142   18 -0.066   22 0.4594   28  1.130   23 -0.259   12  0.126
JETS        5 12 338 404 -0.051  8.460   24 -0.360   24 -0.392   22 -0.196   27 0.4204   22  1.217   24 -0.277   20 -0.115
PATRIOTS    4 13 289 417 -0.084  8.386   28 -0.472   28 -0.482   26 -0.300   31 0.3945   29  1.109   30 -0.517   19 -0.082

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       11  8 416 423  0.121 10.427    9  0.212    9  0.210    9  0.159    9 0.5353   17  1.235    9  0.102    7  0.217
SEAHAWKS   10  7 375 368  0.066  8.935   10  0.174   10  0.167   13  0.097   11 0.5266   19  1.225   14  0.026   10  0.168
CARDINALS   8  9 400 379  0.079  8.999   17 -0.019   17 -0.023   15  0.069   17 0.4969   13  1.273   13  0.061   15  0.077
49ERS       6 11 389 436  0.101  9.387   22 -0.162   22 -0.187   19 -0.116   21 0.4673    8  1.415   12  0.073   27 -0.306

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS 10  8 522 408  0.002  8.652   15  0.078   15  0.075    7  0.216   14 0.5230    6  1.449    7  0.454   17 -0.021
FALCONS     8  9 389 423 -0.078  8.262   18 -0.083   18 -0.090   20 -0.130   18 0.4940   10  1.346   16 -0.038   23 -0.221
SAINTS      5 12 338 398 -0.124  8.170   25 -0.403   26 -0.439   28 -0.326   24 0.4333   23  1.167   27 -0.472   21 -0.180
PANTHERS    5 12 341 534 -0.124  8.494   26 -0.405   25 -0.402   31 -0.447   25 0.4310    7  1.444   21 -0.215   32 -0.678

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      15  3 595 387  0.139  9.437    2  0.673    2  0.651    3  0.499    2 0.6151    3  1.557    1  0.898   13  0.100
VIKINGS    14  4 441 359  0.055  9.125    4  0.551    4  0.522   12  0.142    4 0.5855   15  1.242   10  0.094    8  0.190
PACKERS    11  7 470 360  0.157  9.618    8  0.277    8  0.255    5  0.347    8 0.5482   12  1.318    8  0.400    5  0.293
BEARS       5 12 310 370  0.027  9.063   23 -0.305   23 -0.333   21 -0.162   23 0.4416   31  0.999   29 -0.511    9  0.188

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     17  3 568 358  0.014  9.361    3  0.658    3  0.633    2  0.518    3 0.6101   14  1.253    6  0.483    1  0.553
COMMANDERS 14  6 576 497  0.037  9.947    7  0.402    6  0.383   10  0.158    7 0.5662    2  1.574    4  0.584   26 -0.267
COWBOYS     7 10 350 468 -0.061  8.688   21 -0.153   21 -0.161   25 -0.286   19 0.4791   11  1.327   22 -0.221   29 -0.351
GIANTS      3 14 273 415 -0.091  8.630   32 -0.580   32 -0.604   30 -0.419   28 0.4076   32  0.980   32 -0.791   18 -0.048

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  45 26 0.634    1  0.397
AFC WEST   42 30 0.583    2  0.136
NFC WEST   35 35 0.500    3  0.090
AFC NORTH  35 36 0.493    4  0.053
NFC EAST   41 33 0.554    5 -0.063
AFC EAST   32 39 0.451    6 -0.114
NFC SOUTH  28 41 0.406    7 -0.276
AFC SOUTH  26 44 0.371    8 -0.367

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.143 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Feb  3 05:30:06 2025
games through: Sun Feb  2 2025

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