Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   70 25  9177  8589  0.063 48.971    1  0.603    1  0.579    2  0.386    1 0.5612   25  3.725   16  0.041    2  0.731
DETROIT       74 26  9591  8987  0.014 49.997    2  0.578    2  0.554    4  0.313    3 0.5574   27  3.713   19 -0.089    3  0.714
DALLAS        74 31 10424  9832  0.113 56.140    3  0.575    3  0.553    1  0.449    2 0.5586   18  3.783    5  0.372    4  0.526
MIAMI         68 37 10405 10001  0.054 54.526    4  0.394    4  0.372    3  0.318    4 0.5391   15  3.819    4  0.408    8  0.228
PHOENIX       64 38 11030 10551  0.064 53.171    5  0.342    5  0.325    5  0.286    5 0.5359    1  3.969    1  1.121   27 -0.548
CLEVELAND     57 38  9177  9035  0.036 49.370    6  0.263    6  0.239   12  0.069    6 0.5259   19  3.773   18 -0.057   11  0.195
L.A. CLIPPERS 54 40  9238  9064  0.035 48.660    7  0.219    7  0.188    7  0.171    7 0.5208   17  3.793   12  0.141   10  0.201
NEW JERSEY    54 39  8727  8625 -0.001 47.126    8  0.196    8  0.167   11  0.080    9 0.5172   23  3.729   22 -0.248    6  0.408
MEMPHIS       49 37  7895  7648  0.034 44.169    9  0.195    9  0.165    6  0.178    8 0.5197   30  3.662   25 -0.450    1  0.805
L.A. LAKERS   48 41  8858  8700  0.032 45.992   10  0.120   10  0.102    8  0.122   10 0.5122   14  3.821    8  0.222   14  0.023
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SACRAMENTO    46 42  8690  8621  0.029 45.631   11  0.079   11  0.064   10  0.101   11 0.5091   11  3.834    7  0.266   17 -0.063
DENVER        45 42  8664  8683  0.003 44.567   12  0.050   12  0.037   16 -0.077   12 0.5056    6  3.855    9  0.189   23 -0.344
WASHINGTON    44 44  8946  8793 -0.020 43.826   13  0.003   13 -0.022    9  0.121   14 0.4969    4  3.872    3  0.471   18 -0.228
UTAH          41 41  7573  7789 -0.030 41.557   14 -0.005   14 -0.023   22 -0.155   13 0.4989   24  3.728   27 -0.488   13  0.178
CHICAGO       43 45  8610  8576 -0.005 44.692   15 -0.009   15 -0.033   13  0.052   15 0.4958   16  3.810   13  0.100   16  0.003
INDIANA       43 45  8235  8102 -0.024 43.760   16 -0.028   16 -0.057   14  0.015   16 0.4936   26  3.723   24 -0.339    7  0.370
MILWAUKEE     41 46  8508  8641 -0.003 44.707   17 -0.047   17 -0.069   17 -0.086   17 0.4933    9  3.838   14  0.095   19 -0.267
NEW ORLEANS   38 44  7611  7842 -0.019 41.953   18 -0.072   18 -0.090   26 -0.238   18 0.4915   21  3.748   26 -0.480   15  0.005
PHILADELPHIA  38 44  8147  8307 -0.049 40.820   19 -0.098   19 -0.116   23 -0.165   19 0.4859    5  3.869   10  0.169   26 -0.499
ORLANDO       36 46  7784  7872 -0.045 40.758   20 -0.149   20 -0.168   15 -0.023   21 0.4803   20  3.757   21 -0.224   12  0.178
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE       35 47  8411  8659 -0.034 41.530   21 -0.167   21 -0.183   21 -0.124   20 0.4813    2  3.948    2  0.603   30 -0.850
GOLDEN STATE  34 48  8076  8187 -0.012 41.804   22 -0.170   22 -0.191   18 -0.099   23 0.4797    7  3.850   11  0.143   22 -0.341
HOUSTON       34 48  7387  7517 -0.012 41.899   23 -0.173   23 -0.192   20 -0.120   22 0.4798   29  3.678   29 -0.680    5  0.439
MINNESOTA     33 49  7522  7676 -0.028 41.486   24 -0.212   24 -0.237   25 -0.194   24 0.4757   28  3.712   28 -0.601    9  0.214
BOSTON        33 49  8033  8159 -0.038 41.074   25 -0.220   25 -0.246   19 -0.100   25 0.4724   10  3.837   15  0.080   20 -0.280
TORONTO       27 55  8287  8532 -0.046 41.102   26 -0.391   26 -0.413   24 -0.192   26 0.4545    3  3.899    6  0.289   29 -0.672
ATLANTA       26 56  7972  8362 -0.051 41.396   27 -0.419   27 -0.434   28 -0.259   28 0.4517    8  3.848   17 -0.030   25 -0.488
CHARLOTTE     26 56  7943  8271 -0.042 41.501   28 -0.421   28 -0.441   27 -0.238   27 0.4523   12  3.831   20 -0.089   24 -0.387
NEW YORK      23 59  7842  8367 -0.058 41.445   29 -0.492   29 -0.516   29 -0.409   29 0.4426   13  3.830   23 -0.263   28 -0.555
PORTLAND      21 61  7285  8060 -0.046 42.499   30 -0.543   30 -0.567   30 -0.596   30 0.4416   22  3.737   30 -0.888   21 -0.304
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHOENIX       64 38 11030 10551  0.064 53.171    5  0.342    5  0.325    5  0.286    5 0.5359    1  3.969    1  1.121   27 -0.548
L.A. CLIPPERS 54 40  9238  9064  0.035 48.660    7  0.219    7  0.188    7  0.171    7 0.5208   17  3.793   12  0.141   10  0.201
L.A. LAKERS   48 41  8858  8700  0.032 45.992   10  0.120   10  0.102    8  0.122   10 0.5122   14  3.821    8  0.222   14  0.023
SACRAMENTO    46 42  8690  8621  0.029 45.631   11  0.079   11  0.064   10  0.101   11 0.5091   11  3.834    7  0.266   17 -0.063
GOLDEN STATE  34 48  8076  8187 -0.012 41.804   22 -0.170   22 -0.191   18 -0.099   23 0.4797    7  3.850   11  0.143   22 -0.341

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER        45 42  8664  8683  0.003 44.567   12  0.050   12  0.037   16 -0.077   12 0.5056    6  3.855    9  0.189   23 -0.344
UTAH          41 41  7573  7789 -0.030 41.557   14 -0.005   14 -0.023   22 -0.155   13 0.4989   24  3.728   27 -0.488   13  0.178
SEATTLE       35 47  8411  8659 -0.034 41.530   21 -0.167   21 -0.183   21 -0.124   20 0.4813    2  3.948    2  0.603   30 -0.850
MINNESOTA     33 49  7522  7676 -0.028 41.486   24 -0.212   24 -0.237   25 -0.194   24 0.4757   28  3.712   28 -0.601    9  0.214
PORTLAND      21 61  7285  8060 -0.046 42.499   30 -0.543   30 -0.567   30 -0.596   30 0.4416   22  3.737   30 -0.888   21 -0.304

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   70 25  9177  8589  0.063 48.971    1  0.603    1  0.579    2  0.386    1 0.5612   25  3.725   16  0.041    2  0.731
DALLAS        74 31 10424  9832  0.113 56.140    3  0.575    3  0.553    1  0.449    2 0.5586   18  3.783    5  0.372    4  0.526
MEMPHIS       49 37  7895  7648  0.034 44.169    9  0.195    9  0.165    6  0.178    8 0.5197   30  3.662   25 -0.450    1  0.805
NEW ORLEANS   38 44  7611  7842 -0.019 41.953   18 -0.072   18 -0.090   26 -0.238   18 0.4915   21  3.748   26 -0.480   15  0.005
HOUSTON       34 48  7387  7517 -0.012 41.899   23 -0.173   23 -0.192   20 -0.120   22 0.4798   29  3.678   29 -0.680    5  0.439

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT       74 26  9591  8987  0.014 49.997    2  0.578    2  0.554    4  0.313    3 0.5574   27  3.713   19 -0.089    3  0.714
CLEVELAND     57 38  9177  9035  0.036 49.370    6  0.263    6  0.239   12  0.069    6 0.5259   19  3.773   18 -0.057   11  0.195
CHICAGO       43 45  8610  8576 -0.005 44.692   15 -0.009   15 -0.033   13  0.052   15 0.4958   16  3.810   13  0.100   16  0.003
INDIANA       43 45  8235  8102 -0.024 43.760   16 -0.028   16 -0.057   14  0.015   16 0.4936   26  3.723   24 -0.339    7  0.370
MILWAUKEE     41 46  8508  8641 -0.003 44.707   17 -0.047   17 -0.069   17 -0.086   17 0.4933    9  3.838   14  0.095   19 -0.267

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI         68 37 10405 10001  0.054 54.526    4  0.394    4  0.372    3  0.318    4 0.5391   15  3.819    4  0.408    8  0.228
WASHINGTON    44 44  8946  8793 -0.020 43.826   13  0.003   13 -0.022    9  0.121   14 0.4969    4  3.872    3  0.471   18 -0.228
ORLANDO       36 46  7784  7872 -0.045 40.758   20 -0.149   20 -0.168   15 -0.023   21 0.4803   20  3.757   21 -0.224   12  0.178
ATLANTA       26 56  7972  8362 -0.051 41.396   27 -0.419   27 -0.434   28 -0.259   28 0.4517    8  3.848   17 -0.030   25 -0.488
CHARLOTTE     26 56  7943  8271 -0.042 41.501   28 -0.421   28 -0.441   27 -0.238   27 0.4523   12  3.831   20 -0.089   24 -0.387

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY    54 39  8727  8625 -0.001 47.126    8  0.196    8  0.167   11  0.080    9 0.5172   23  3.729   22 -0.248    6  0.408
PHILADELPHIA  38 44  8147  8307 -0.049 40.820   19 -0.098   19 -0.116   23 -0.165   19 0.4859    5  3.869   10  0.169   26 -0.499
BOSTON        33 49  8033  8159 -0.038 41.074   25 -0.220   25 -0.246   19 -0.100   25 0.4724   10  3.837   15  0.080   20 -0.280
TORONTO       27 55  8287  8532 -0.046 41.102   26 -0.391   26 -0.413   24 -0.192   26 0.4545    3  3.899    6  0.289   29 -0.672
NEW YORK      23 59  7842  8367 -0.058 41.445   29 -0.492   29 -0.516   29 -0.409   29 0.4426   13  3.830   23 -0.263   28 -0.555

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 265 185 0.589    1  0.195
PACIFIC DIVISION   246 209 0.541    2  0.148
CENTRAL DIVISION   258 200 0.563    3  0.126
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 200 239 0.456    4 -0.090
ATLANTIC DIVISION  175 246 0.416    5 -0.217
NORTHWEST DIVISION 175 240 0.422    6 -0.295

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.292 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.027 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:02:03 2024
games through: Tue Jun 20 2006

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