Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       63 13 9112 8126  0.079 37.740    1  0.885    1  0.893    1  0.932    1 0.5804   17  3.959    2  0.917    1  0.947
CAVALIERS     60 15 9175 8424  0.013 35.608    2  0.746    2  0.752    3  0.604    2 0.5693    5  4.037    1  0.995    9  0.212
CELTICS       56 19 8766 8077  0.028 36.350    3  0.605    3  0.604    2  0.623    3 0.5591   23  3.931    5  0.464    2  0.783
ROCKETS       49 27 8661 8290  0.055 38.339    4  0.376    4  0.375    6  0.328    4 0.5370   24  3.920   13  0.116    6  0.540
NUGGETS       47 28 9066 8751  0.021 37.073    5  0.301    5  0.304    7  0.257    5 0.5305    3  4.047    4  0.702   19 -0.188
KNICKS        47 27 8613 8293 -0.023 35.340    6  0.290    6  0.291   11  0.200    6 0.5291   15  3.966   10  0.219   11  0.181
LAKERS        46 29 8479 8417  0.003 37.312    7  0.262    7  0.268   14  0.089    7 0.5262   20  3.944   18 -0.004   12  0.181
WARRIORS      43 31 8393 8190  0.033 37.222    8  0.221    8  0.219   10  0.220   11 0.5207   22  3.940   14  0.108    8  0.331
GRIZZLIES     44 31 9146 8782  0.027 37.042    9  0.219    9  0.214    9  0.233    8 0.5214    1  4.068    3  0.790   23 -0.324
CLIPPERS      43 32 8412 8128  0.054 38.045   10  0.215   10  0.209    5  0.369   10 0.5207   26  3.897   16  0.039    3  0.698
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIMBERWOLVES  43 32 8536 8193  0.058 37.983   11  0.214   11  0.204    4  0.399    9 0.5209   25  3.920   11  0.183    4  0.615
PACERS        44 31 8781 8647 -0.021 36.457   12  0.186   12  0.181   12  0.176   12 0.5188    6  4.007    6  0.411   16 -0.058
PISTONS       42 33 8664 8484 -0.015 36.462   13  0.117   13  0.113    8  0.255   13 0.5128   13  3.974    9  0.317   10  0.192
BUCKS         41 34 8567 8426  0.011 37.215   14  0.115   14  0.111   13  0.141   14 0.5122   16  3.962   12  0.140   13  0.141
MAVERICKS     37 39 8731 8749  0.027 38.653   15  0.004   15  0.004   20 -0.120   15 0.4991    9  3.988   17  0.012   21 -0.252
HAWKS         36 38 8722 8839 -0.009 37.018   16 -0.029   16 -0.028   17 -0.049   16 0.4972    4  4.047    7  0.394   26 -0.492
KINGS         36 39 8682 8680  0.011 37.697   17 -0.029   17 -0.032   15 -0.035   17 0.4957   10  3.987   15  0.091   17 -0.161
SUNS          35 40 8571 8730 -0.012 37.504   18 -0.085   18 -0.082   22 -0.146   18 0.4913   12  3.981   20 -0.047   20 -0.245
MAGIC         36 40 7971 8033 -0.050 36.740   19 -0.103   19 -0.102   21 -0.123   19 0.4898   30  3.818   28 -0.836    5  0.590
HEAT          34 41 8223 8242 -0.022 36.844   20 -0.130   20 -0.132   16 -0.040   20 0.4874   28  3.882   24 -0.440    7  0.360
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         33 42 8801 9003 -0.010 37.705   21 -0.146   21 -0.143   19 -0.108   21 0.4863    2  4.051    8  0.358   28 -0.574
TRAIL BLAZERS 32 43 8300 8576  0.014 38.573   22 -0.157   22 -0.154   18 -0.102   22 0.4845   21  3.941   21 -0.207   14  0.004
SPURS         31 43 8448 8644 -0.006 37.252   23 -0.189   23 -0.189   23 -0.214   23 0.4801    7  3.996   19 -0.039   24 -0.388
RAPTORS       28 47 8299 8623 -0.025 37.715   24 -0.316   24 -0.319   24 -0.267   24 0.4697   19  3.946   22 -0.352   18 -0.183
NETS          25 51 7996 8500 -0.032 38.455   25 -0.423   25 -0.417   25 -0.491   25 0.4594   29  3.869   29 -0.955   15 -0.026
76ERS         23 52 8236 8688 -0.044 37.473   26 -0.490   26 -0.489   26 -0.492   26 0.4524   18  3.949   26 -0.558   25 -0.426
PELICANS      21 54 8264 8907 -0.011 38.807   27 -0.534   27 -0.533   27 -0.536   27 0.4490   14  3.968   25 -0.504   27 -0.567
HORNETS       19 56 7918 8517 -0.083 36.823   28 -0.657   28 -0.656   29 -0.662   28 0.4373   27  3.894   30 -1.007   22 -0.318
JAZZ          16 60 8475 9124 -0.018 39.033   29 -0.719   29 -0.721   28 -0.602   29 0.4313    8  3.995   23 -0.432   29 -0.771
WIZARDS       16 59 8144 9069 -0.062 37.998   30 -0.749   30 -0.745   30 -0.835   30 0.4305   11  3.983   27 -0.726   30 -0.944
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        46 29 8479 8417  0.003 37.312    7  0.262    7  0.268   14  0.089    7 0.5262   20  3.944   18 -0.004   12  0.181
WARRIORS      43 31 8393 8190  0.033 37.222    8  0.221    8  0.219   10  0.220   11 0.5207   22  3.940   14  0.108    8  0.331
CLIPPERS      43 32 8412 8128  0.054 38.045   10  0.215   10  0.209    5  0.369   10 0.5207   26  3.897   16  0.039    3  0.698
KINGS         36 39 8682 8680  0.011 37.697   17 -0.029   17 -0.032   15 -0.035   17 0.4957   10  3.987   15  0.091   17 -0.161
SUNS          35 40 8571 8730 -0.012 37.504   18 -0.085   18 -0.082   22 -0.146   18 0.4913   12  3.981   20 -0.047   20 -0.245

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       63 13 9112 8126  0.079 37.740    1  0.885    1  0.893    1  0.932    1 0.5804   17  3.959    2  0.917    1  0.947
NUGGETS       47 28 9066 8751  0.021 37.073    5  0.301    5  0.304    7  0.257    5 0.5305    3  4.047    4  0.702   19 -0.188
TIMBERWOLVES  43 32 8536 8193  0.058 37.983   11  0.214   11  0.204    4  0.399    9 0.5209   25  3.920   11  0.183    4  0.615
TRAIL BLAZERS 32 43 8300 8576  0.014 38.573   22 -0.157   22 -0.154   18 -0.102   22 0.4845   21  3.941   21 -0.207   14  0.004
JAZZ          16 60 8475 9124 -0.018 39.033   29 -0.719   29 -0.721   28 -0.602   29 0.4313    8  3.995   23 -0.432   29 -0.771

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       49 27 8661 8290  0.055 38.339    4  0.376    4  0.375    6  0.328    4 0.5370   24  3.920   13  0.116    6  0.540
GRIZZLIES     44 31 9146 8782  0.027 37.042    9  0.219    9  0.214    9  0.233    8 0.5214    1  4.068    3  0.790   23 -0.324
MAVERICKS     37 39 8731 8749  0.027 38.653   15  0.004   15  0.004   20 -0.120   15 0.4991    9  3.988   17  0.012   21 -0.252
SPURS         31 43 8448 8644 -0.006 37.252   23 -0.189   23 -0.189   23 -0.214   23 0.4801    7  3.996   19 -0.039   24 -0.388
PELICANS      21 54 8264 8907 -0.011 38.807   27 -0.534   27 -0.533   27 -0.536   27 0.4490   14  3.968   25 -0.504   27 -0.567

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     60 15 9175 8424  0.013 35.608    2  0.746    2  0.752    3  0.604    2 0.5693    5  4.037    1  0.995    9  0.212
PACERS        44 31 8781 8647 -0.021 36.457   12  0.186   12  0.181   12  0.176   12 0.5188    6  4.007    6  0.411   16 -0.058
PISTONS       42 33 8664 8484 -0.015 36.462   13  0.117   13  0.113    8  0.255   13 0.5128   13  3.974    9  0.317   10  0.192
BUCKS         41 34 8567 8426  0.011 37.215   14  0.115   14  0.111   13  0.141   14 0.5122   16  3.962   12  0.140   13  0.141
BULLS         33 42 8801 9003 -0.010 37.705   21 -0.146   21 -0.143   19 -0.108   21 0.4863    2  4.051    8  0.358   28 -0.574

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         36 38 8722 8839 -0.009 37.018   16 -0.029   16 -0.028   17 -0.049   16 0.4972    4  4.047    7  0.394   26 -0.492
MAGIC         36 40 7971 8033 -0.050 36.740   19 -0.103   19 -0.102   21 -0.123   19 0.4898   30  3.818   28 -0.836    5  0.590
HEAT          34 41 8223 8242 -0.022 36.844   20 -0.130   20 -0.132   16 -0.040   20 0.4874   28  3.882   24 -0.440    7  0.360
HORNETS       19 56 7918 8517 -0.083 36.823   28 -0.657   28 -0.656   29 -0.662   28 0.4373   27  3.894   30 -1.007   22 -0.318
WIZARDS       16 59 8144 9069 -0.062 37.998   30 -0.749   30 -0.745   30 -0.835   30 0.4305   11  3.983   27 -0.726   30 -0.944

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       56 19 8766 8077  0.028 36.350    3  0.605    3  0.604    2  0.623    3 0.5591   23  3.931    5  0.464    2  0.783
KNICKS        47 27 8613 8293 -0.023 35.340    6  0.290    6  0.291   11  0.200    6 0.5291   15  3.966   10  0.219   11  0.181
RAPTORS       28 47 8299 8623 -0.025 37.715   24 -0.316   24 -0.319   24 -0.267   24 0.4697   19  3.946   22 -0.352   18 -0.183
NETS          25 51 7996 8500 -0.032 38.455   25 -0.423   25 -0.417   25 -0.491   25 0.4594   29  3.869   29 -0.955   15 -0.026
76ERS         23 52 8236 8688 -0.044 37.473   26 -0.490   26 -0.489   26 -0.492   26 0.4524   18  3.949   26 -0.558   25 -0.426

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   220 155 0.587    1  0.182
NORTHWEST DIVISION 201 176 0.533    2  0.168
PACIFIC DIVISION   203 171 0.543    3  0.093
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 182 194 0.484    4 -0.004
ATLANTIC DIVISION  179 196 0.477    5 -0.074
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 141 234 0.376    6 -0.370

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.142 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Apr  1 05:30:16 2025
games through: Mon Mar 31 2025

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