Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       71 15 10325  9210  0.076 42.550    1  0.896    1  0.898    1  0.939    1 0.5798   16  3.961    1  0.936    1  0.942
CAVALIERS     66 18 10241  9429  0.010 39.878    2  0.722    2  0.721    2  0.579    2 0.5659    5  4.028    2  0.929   11  0.229
CELTICS       63 21  9746  8973 -0.003 39.522    3  0.601    3  0.597    3  0.569    3 0.5563   24  3.922    8  0.373    3  0.766
ROCKETS       53 31  9566  9191  0.068 42.750    4  0.364    4  0.361    7  0.300    4 0.5348   23  3.926   15  0.121    6  0.478
CLIPPERS      52 33  9588  9171  0.058 42.849    5  0.310    5  0.306    4  0.495    5 0.5296   27  3.893   14  0.152    2  0.839
KNICKS        53 32  9829  9486 -0.009 41.040    6  0.285    6  0.284    9  0.209    6 0.5275   17  3.954   12  0.170    9  0.247
LAKERS        51 33  9487  9400  0.028 42.394    7  0.280    7  0.282   14  0.145    7 0.5268   20  3.944   17  0.061   10  0.230
NUGGETS       51 34 10199  9915  0.041 42.764    8  0.270    8  0.265   11  0.192    8 0.5257    4  4.036    4  0.583   18 -0.199
TIMBERWOLVES  50 34  9574  9151  0.051 42.118    9  0.268   11  0.254    5  0.429   10 0.5254   25  3.916   11  0.199    5  0.658
PACERS        52 32  9864  9654 -0.026 40.385   10  0.266    9  0.257    8  0.233    9 0.5256    7  4.003    5  0.452   15  0.014
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      50 35  9640  9370  0.053 43.208   11  0.264   10  0.254    6  0.301   11 0.5241   22  3.934   13  0.162    7  0.440
GRIZZLIES     49 38 10503 10172  0.061 44.147   12  0.210   12  0.193   12  0.192   12 0.5185    1  4.058    3  0.703   22 -0.319
BUCKS         49 36  9782  9590  0.003 41.779   13  0.191   13  0.178   13  0.163   13 0.5182   15  3.970   10  0.209   13  0.117
PISTONS       45 40  9799  9650  0.011 42.157   14  0.067   14  0.066   10  0.200   14 0.5074   14  3.974    9  0.268   12  0.132
MAVERICKS     40 44  9590  9688  0.030 42.981   15 -0.013   15 -0.016   21 -0.199   15 0.4969   10  3.983   19 -0.083   20 -0.314
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571  0.005 41.361   16 -0.027   16 -0.036   16 -0.007   17 0.4956    9  3.984   16  0.110   16 -0.124
MAGIC         42 43  8951  8962 -0.035 41.294   17 -0.035   17 -0.044   17 -0.008   16 0.4960   30  3.818   27 -0.718    4  0.701
HAWKS         40 44  9900 10027 -0.033 41.190   18 -0.071   18 -0.076   20 -0.093   18 0.4922    2  4.053    7  0.387   27 -0.574
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.040 40.569   19 -0.103   19 -0.105   18 -0.058   19 0.4903    3  4.049    6  0.403   26 -0.518
HEAT          39 47  9513  9469 -0.014 42.210   20 -0.125   21 -0.133   15  0.055   20 0.4878   28  3.887   22 -0.320    8  0.430
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.007 41.706   21 -0.128   20 -0.131   23 -0.216   21 0.4867   11  3.980   20 -0.116   21 -0.316
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336 -0.004 41.354   22 -0.143   22 -0.146   19 -0.061   22 0.4859   21  3.936   21 -0.189   14  0.066
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568 -0.000 41.418   23 -0.193   23 -0.196   22 -0.210   23 0.4799    8  3.996   18 -0.031   23 -0.389
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.047 40.482   24 -0.356   24 -0.363   24 -0.302   24 0.4657   18  3.952   23 -0.350   19 -0.254
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.049 41.068   25 -0.472   25 -0.467   26 -0.567   25 0.4550   29  3.874   29 -1.004   17 -0.130
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.057 40.599   26 -0.539   26 -0.546   25 -0.525   26 0.4480   19  3.948   26 -0.592   25 -0.458
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.009 42.595   27 -0.602   27 -0.605   27 -0.630   27 0.4438   13  3.975   25 -0.557   28 -0.703
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.076 40.697   28 -0.715   28 -0.720   29 -0.762   28 0.4330   26  3.894   30 -1.099   24 -0.424
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.009 42.541   29 -0.728   29 -0.735   28 -0.658   29 0.4319    6  4.008   24 -0.416   29 -0.900
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.070 41.350   30 -0.744   30 -0.745   30 -0.857   30 0.4313   12  3.977   28 -0.778   30 -0.937
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      52 33  9588  9171  0.058 42.849    5  0.310    5  0.306    4  0.495    5 0.5296   27  3.893   14  0.152    2  0.839
LAKERS        51 33  9487  9400  0.028 42.394    7  0.280    7  0.282   14  0.145    7 0.5268   20  3.944   17  0.061   10  0.230
WARRIORS      50 35  9640  9370  0.053 43.208   11  0.264   10  0.254    6  0.301   11 0.5241   22  3.934   13  0.162    7  0.440
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571  0.005 41.361   16 -0.027   16 -0.036   16 -0.007   17 0.4956    9  3.984   16  0.110   16 -0.124
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.007 41.706   21 -0.128   20 -0.131   23 -0.216   21 0.4867   11  3.980   20 -0.116   21 -0.316

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       71 15 10325  9210  0.076 42.550    1  0.896    1  0.898    1  0.939    1 0.5798   16  3.961    1  0.936    1  0.942
NUGGETS       51 34 10199  9915  0.041 42.764    8  0.270    8  0.265   11  0.192    8 0.5257    4  4.036    4  0.583   18 -0.199
TIMBERWOLVES  50 34  9574  9151  0.051 42.118    9  0.268   11  0.254    5  0.429   10 0.5254   25  3.916   11  0.199    5  0.658
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336 -0.004 41.354   22 -0.143   22 -0.146   19 -0.061   22 0.4859   21  3.936   21 -0.189   14  0.066
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.009 42.541   29 -0.728   29 -0.735   28 -0.658   29 0.4319    6  4.008   24 -0.416   29 -0.900

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       53 31  9566  9191  0.068 42.750    4  0.364    4  0.361    7  0.300    4 0.5348   23  3.926   15  0.121    6  0.478
GRIZZLIES     49 38 10503 10172  0.061 44.147   12  0.210   12  0.193   12  0.192   12 0.5185    1  4.058    3  0.703   22 -0.319
MAVERICKS     40 44  9590  9688  0.030 42.981   15 -0.013   15 -0.016   21 -0.199   15 0.4969   10  3.983   19 -0.083   20 -0.314
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568 -0.000 41.418   23 -0.193   23 -0.196   22 -0.210   23 0.4799    8  3.996   18 -0.031   23 -0.389
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.009 42.595   27 -0.602   27 -0.605   27 -0.630   27 0.4438   13  3.975   25 -0.557   28 -0.703

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     66 18 10241  9429  0.010 39.878    2  0.722    2  0.721    2  0.579    2 0.5659    5  4.028    2  0.929   11  0.229
PACERS        52 32  9864  9654 -0.026 40.385   10  0.266    9  0.257    8  0.233    9 0.5256    7  4.003    5  0.452   15  0.014
BUCKS         49 36  9782  9590  0.003 41.779   13  0.191   13  0.178   13  0.163   13 0.5182   15  3.970   10  0.209   13  0.117
PISTONS       45 40  9799  9650  0.011 42.157   14  0.067   14  0.066   10  0.200   14 0.5074   14  3.974    9  0.268   12  0.132
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.040 40.569   19 -0.103   19 -0.105   18 -0.058   19 0.4903    3  4.049    6  0.403   26 -0.518

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         42 43  8951  8962 -0.035 41.294   17 -0.035   17 -0.044   17 -0.008   16 0.4960   30  3.818   27 -0.718    4  0.701
HAWKS         40 44  9900 10027 -0.033 41.190   18 -0.071   18 -0.076   20 -0.093   18 0.4922    2  4.053    7  0.387   27 -0.574
HEAT          39 47  9513  9469 -0.014 42.210   20 -0.125   21 -0.133   15  0.055   20 0.4878   28  3.887   22 -0.320    8  0.430
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.076 40.697   28 -0.715   28 -0.720   29 -0.762   28 0.4330   26  3.894   30 -1.099   24 -0.424
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.070 41.350   30 -0.744   30 -0.745   30 -0.857   30 0.4313   12  3.977   28 -0.778   30 -0.937

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       63 21  9746  8973 -0.003 39.522    3  0.601    3  0.597    3  0.569    3 0.5563   24  3.922    8  0.373    3  0.766
KNICKS        53 32  9829  9486 -0.009 41.040    6  0.285    6  0.284    9  0.209    6 0.5275   17  3.954   12  0.170    9  0.247
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.047 40.482   24 -0.356   24 -0.363   24 -0.302   24 0.4657   18  3.952   23 -0.350   19 -0.254
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.049 41.068   25 -0.472   25 -0.467   26 -0.567   25 0.4550   29  3.874   29 -1.004   17 -0.130
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.057 40.599   26 -0.539   26 -0.546   25 -0.525   26 0.4480   19  3.948   26 -0.592   25 -0.458

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   251 170 0.596    1  0.191
NORTHWEST DIVISION 225 194 0.537    2  0.162
PACIFIC DIVISION   229 190 0.547    3  0.121
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 197 222 0.470    4 -0.041
ATLANTIC DIVISION  196 219 0.472    5 -0.103
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 158 261 0.377    6 -0.367

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.146 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Apr 25 05:30:18 2025
games through: Thu Apr 24 2025

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