Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       118  58 801 557  0.000 87.781    1  0.319    1  0.340    2  0.284    1 0.5397   27  0.286    9  0.143    2  0.426   18 -0.057
DODGERS      112  54 859 528 -0.039 80.091    2  0.291    2  0.315    1  0.365    2 0.5396   29  0.244    5  0.190    1  0.540    3  0.199
METS         102  63 780 622 -0.011 81.607    3  0.252    3  0.224    5  0.185    3 0.5277    3  0.571    1  0.294    9  0.076   28 -0.263
YANKEES      102  69 836 599  0.021 86.828    4  0.247    4  0.209    3  0.261    4 0.5262   18  0.456    3  0.264    3  0.258   20 -0.100
BRAVES       102  64 802 633 -0.023 81.345    5  0.246    5  0.209    4  0.189    5 0.5259   13  0.505    4  0.237    5  0.142   19 -0.097
BLUE JAYS     92  72 784 693  0.028 83.815    6  0.165    6  0.140    6  0.135    6 0.5171    1  0.617    2  0.288   15 -0.017   17 -0.056
MARINERS      92  75 713 645  0.017 84.694    7  0.108    8  0.112    8  0.090   10 0.5127    8  0.533    7  0.163   12  0.016   29 -0.298
GUARDIANS     96  73 715 655 -0.024 83.006    8  0.106    7  0.114   12  0.037    8 0.5133   23  0.383   18 -0.023    7  0.098   24 -0.106
PHILLIES      98  81 822 742  0.012 90.325    9  0.088    9  0.105    7  0.104    7 0.5135   14  0.489   10  0.137   10  0.072   10  0.061
PADRES        95  79 755 705  0.014 88.033   10  0.077   10  0.101   11  0.064    9 0.5128    6  0.561    6  0.164   17 -0.035   30 -0.350
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS     93  71 775 645 -0.060 78.124   11  0.056   11  0.084    9  0.084   11 0.5108   10  0.530    8  0.155   13  0.014   26 -0.134
RAYS          86  78 667 617  0.026 83.797   12  0.037   12  0.067   10  0.079   12 0.5081   25  0.314   19 -0.039    4  0.197   22 -0.102
ORIOLES       83  79 674 688  0.029 83.086   13  0.019   13  0.045   13  0.013   13 0.5050   19  0.442   17  0.004   11  0.022   16 -0.042
BREWERS       86  76 725 688 -0.048 78.095   14  0.010   14  0.022   15  0.004   14 0.5028   11  0.526   13  0.070   18 -0.063   23 -0.103
RED SOX       78  84 735 787  0.044 84.119   15  0.004   15 -0.002   16 -0.005   16 0.4993    2  0.582   11  0.114   23 -0.123    5  0.175
GIANTS        81  81 716 697 -0.007 80.762   16  0.003   16 -0.007   14  0.010   15 0.5000   15  0.487   15  0.041   16 -0.021   14  0.009
WHITE SOX     81  81 686 717 -0.026 79.623   17 -0.001   17 -0.021   20 -0.039   17 0.4972   21  0.406   20 -0.080   14  0.002    4  0.196
TWINS         78  85 699 695 -0.019 80.508   18 -0.016   18 -0.057   17 -0.008   18 0.4935    7  0.551   12  0.081   21 -0.098   27 -0.142
ANGELS        73  89 623 668  0.031 83.301   19 -0.030   19 -0.073   18 -0.020   20 0.4902   26  0.292   23 -0.156    6  0.117    7  0.092
DIAMONDBACKS  74  88 702 740  0.005 81.643   20 -0.039   20 -0.081   21 -0.039   19 0.4911   12  0.521   16  0.023   22 -0.102   12  0.022
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS          74  88 657 731 -0.035 79.204   21 -0.093   21 -0.112   23 -0.117   21 0.4866   16  0.472   21 -0.100   24 -0.134   21 -0.102
MARLINS       69  93 586 676  0.012 82.247   22 -0.138   22 -0.135   22 -0.107   22 0.4840   30  0.221   28 -0.300    8  0.086    9  0.062
RANGERS       68  94 707 743  0.018 82.454   23 -0.148   24 -0.142   19 -0.035   24 0.4820    5  0.566   14  0.068   25 -0.138   11  0.058
ROCKIES       68  94 698 873  0.019 82.826   24 -0.153   23 -0.142   24 -0.184   23 0.4823   24  0.338   27 -0.283   20 -0.085    1  0.692
TIGERS        66  96 557 713 -0.008 80.998   25 -0.218   25 -0.189   27 -0.216   25 0.4763   28  0.281   30 -0.362   19 -0.071   13  0.018
ROYALS        65  97 640 810  0.003 81.660   26 -0.219   26 -0.192   25 -0.192   26 0.4762    9  0.531   22 -0.121   29 -0.264    8  0.088
ATHLETICS     60 102 568 770  0.045 84.484   27 -0.233   27 -0.220   26 -0.216   27 0.4715   17  0.470   25 -0.200   27 -0.231   25 -0.112
REDS          62 100 648 815 -0.023 80.176   28 -0.241   29 -0.248   28 -0.221   28 0.4701   22  0.404   26 -0.263   26 -0.179    2  0.308
PIRATES       62 100 591 817 -0.023 80.243   29 -0.243   28 -0.247   29 -0.279   29 0.4694   20  0.425   29 -0.302   28 -0.255    6  0.099
NATIONALS     55 107 603 855  0.028 83.587   30 -0.259   30 -0.294   30 -0.295   30 0.4643    4  0.567   24 -0.190   30 -0.400   15 -0.015
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      112  54 859 528 -0.039 80.091    2  0.291    2  0.315    1  0.365    2 0.5396   29  0.244    5  0.190    1  0.540    3  0.199
PADRES        95  79 755 705  0.014 88.033   10  0.077   10  0.101   11  0.064    9 0.5128    6  0.561    6  0.164   17 -0.035   30 -0.350
GIANTS        81  81 716 697 -0.007 80.762   16  0.003   16 -0.007   14  0.010   15 0.5000   15  0.487   15  0.041   16 -0.021   14  0.009
DIAMONDBACKS  74  88 702 740  0.005 81.643   20 -0.039   20 -0.081   21 -0.039   19 0.4911   12  0.521   16  0.023   22 -0.102   12  0.022
ROCKIES       68  94 698 873  0.019 82.826   24 -0.153   23 -0.142   24 -0.184   23 0.4823   24  0.338   27 -0.283   20 -0.085    1  0.692

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS     93  71 775 645 -0.060 78.124   11  0.056   11  0.084    9  0.084   11 0.5108   10  0.530    8  0.155   13  0.014   26 -0.134
BREWERS       86  76 725 688 -0.048 78.095   14  0.010   14  0.022   15  0.004   14 0.5028   11  0.526   13  0.070   18 -0.063   23 -0.103
CUBS          74  88 657 731 -0.035 79.204   21 -0.093   21 -0.112   23 -0.117   21 0.4866   16  0.472   21 -0.100   24 -0.134   21 -0.102
REDS          62 100 648 815 -0.023 80.176   28 -0.241   29 -0.248   28 -0.221   28 0.4701   22  0.404   26 -0.263   26 -0.179    2  0.308
PIRATES       62 100 591 817 -0.023 80.243   29 -0.243   28 -0.247   29 -0.279   29 0.4694   20  0.425   29 -0.302   28 -0.255    6  0.099

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         102  63 780 622 -0.011 81.607    3  0.252    3  0.224    5  0.185    3 0.5277    3  0.571    1  0.294    9  0.076   28 -0.263
BRAVES       102  64 802 633 -0.023 81.345    5  0.246    5  0.209    4  0.189    5 0.5259   13  0.505    4  0.237    5  0.142   19 -0.097
PHILLIES      98  81 822 742  0.012 90.325    9  0.088    9  0.105    7  0.104    7 0.5135   14  0.489   10  0.137   10  0.072   10  0.061
MARLINS       69  93 586 676  0.012 82.247   22 -0.138   22 -0.135   22 -0.107   22 0.4840   30  0.221   28 -0.300    8  0.086    9  0.062
NATIONALS     55 107 603 855  0.028 83.587   30 -0.259   30 -0.294   30 -0.295   30 0.4643    4  0.567   24 -0.190   30 -0.400   15 -0.015

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       118  58 801 557  0.000 87.781    1  0.319    1  0.340    2  0.284    1 0.5397   27  0.286    9  0.143    2  0.426   18 -0.057
MARINERS      92  75 713 645  0.017 84.694    7  0.108    8  0.112    8  0.090   10 0.5127    8  0.533    7  0.163   12  0.016   29 -0.298
ANGELS        73  89 623 668  0.031 83.301   19 -0.030   19 -0.073   18 -0.020   20 0.4902   26  0.292   23 -0.156    6  0.117    7  0.092
RANGERS       68  94 707 743  0.018 82.454   23 -0.148   24 -0.142   19 -0.035   24 0.4820    5  0.566   14  0.068   25 -0.138   11  0.058
ATHLETICS     60 102 568 770  0.045 84.484   27 -0.233   27 -0.220   26 -0.216   27 0.4715   17  0.470   25 -0.200   27 -0.231   25 -0.112

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GUARDIANS     96  73 715 655 -0.024 83.006    8  0.106    7  0.114   12  0.037    8 0.5133   23  0.383   18 -0.023    7  0.098   24 -0.106
WHITE SOX     81  81 686 717 -0.026 79.623   17 -0.001   17 -0.021   20 -0.039   17 0.4972   21  0.406   20 -0.080   14  0.002    4  0.196
TWINS         78  85 699 695 -0.019 80.508   18 -0.016   18 -0.057   17 -0.008   18 0.4935    7  0.551   12  0.081   21 -0.098   27 -0.142
TIGERS        66  96 557 713 -0.008 80.998   25 -0.218   25 -0.189   27 -0.216   25 0.4763   28  0.281   30 -0.362   19 -0.071   13  0.018
ROYALS        65  97 640 810  0.003 81.660   26 -0.219   26 -0.192   25 -0.192   26 0.4762    9  0.531   22 -0.121   29 -0.264    8  0.088

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      102  69 836 599  0.021 86.828    4  0.247    4  0.209    3  0.261    4 0.5262   18  0.456    3  0.264    3  0.258   20 -0.100
BLUE JAYS     92  72 784 693  0.028 83.815    6  0.165    6  0.140    6  0.135    6 0.5171    1  0.617    2  0.288   15 -0.017   17 -0.056
RAYS          86  78 667 617  0.026 83.797   12  0.037   12  0.067   10  0.079   12 0.5081   25  0.314   19 -0.039    4  0.197   22 -0.102
ORIOLES       83  79 674 688  0.029 83.086   13  0.019   13  0.045   13  0.013   13 0.5050   19  0.442   17  0.004   11  0.022   16 -0.042
RED SOX       78  84 735 787  0.044 84.119   15  0.004   15 -0.002   16 -0.005   16 0.4993    2  0.582   11  0.114   23 -0.123    5  0.175

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    441 382 0.536    1  0.115
NL WEST    430 396 0.521    2  0.050
AL WEST    411 418 0.496    3  0.024
NL EAST    426 408 0.511    4  0.019
AL CENTRAL 386 432 0.472    5 -0.099
NL CENTRAL 377 435 0.464    6 -0.125

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.062 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.008 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Nov 12 16:45:25 2022
games through: Sat Nov  5 2022

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