Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      56 22 450 279  0.156 42.902    1  0.591    1  0.561    1  0.568    1 0.5787   17  0.553    1  0.585    1  0.550   24 -0.188
RAYS         51 29 368 310  0.259 47.818    2  0.501    2  0.478    3  0.369    2 0.5633   28  0.358    9  0.213    2  0.524   20 -0.095
BRAVES       43 29 405 332  0.231 42.100    3  0.380    3  0.365    2  0.382    3 0.5493    6  0.647    2  0.489    5  0.275   11  0.089
YANKEES      37 30 361 303  0.238 39.518    4  0.290    4  0.278    4  0.339    5 0.5413   14  0.569    4  0.371    3  0.306    8  0.182
PADRES       39 27 353 280  0.130 35.806    5  0.279    5  0.266    5  0.302    4 0.5461   19  0.542    6  0.309    4  0.294   15  0.011
BLUE JAYS    32 30 305 323  0.260 37.316    6  0.237    6  0.221    6  0.182    6 0.5337   18  0.553   11  0.199    6  0.165    7  0.213
MARLINS      33 32 275 323  0.248 38.897    7  0.214    7  0.200   12  0.108    8 0.5281   12  0.588   12  0.158   11  0.057   26 -0.292
ATHLETICS    39 28 308 276  0.020 33.842    8  0.182    8  0.169   10  0.118    7 0.5333    5  0.657    7  0.236   15  0.001   30 -0.528
PHILLIES     28 32 306 311  0.235 35.552    9  0.116    9  0.109    7  0.171   11 0.5188    2  0.770    3  0.401   19 -0.059   22 -0.124
GIANTS       29 31 299 297  0.164 33.783   10  0.094   10  0.087   13  0.108    9 0.5257   13  0.585   13  0.155   10  0.060   10  0.110
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       37 36 341 324  0.074 38.521   11  0.070   11  0.067   14  0.095   10 0.5231    4  0.658    8  0.213   17 -0.023   27 -0.302
METS         26 34 286 308  0.248 35.939   12  0.062   12  0.056   11  0.115   13 0.5115    8  0.635   10  0.210   12  0.020   18 -0.053
NATIONALS    26 34 293 301  0.239 35.676   13  0.062   13  0.051    8  0.138   14 0.5113    3  0.765    5  0.363   20 -0.087   28 -0.314
ORIOLES      25 35 274 294  0.258 36.160   14  0.044   14  0.032    9  0.126   16 0.5108   16  0.556   14  0.147    8  0.106   21 -0.103
RED SOX      24 36 292 351  0.280 36.737   15  0.023   15  0.017   15  0.071   18 0.5088   11  0.591   15  0.124   14  0.018    3  0.404
ROCKIES      26 34 275 353  0.171 34.255   16  0.008   16  0.000   18 -0.051   12 0.5137   20  0.521   18 -0.064   18 -0.038    1  0.530
DIAMONDBACKS 25 35 269 295  0.174 34.195   17 -0.012   17 -0.033   16  0.026   15 0.5111   25  0.417   19 -0.080    7  0.132    6  0.225
MARINERS     27 33 254 303  0.076 32.023   18 -0.020   18 -0.038   19 -0.090   17 0.5089    7  0.644   17  0.015   24 -0.194   25 -0.228
ANGELS       26 34 294 321  0.076 31.893   19 -0.044   19 -0.075   17 -0.021   19 0.5063    9  0.628   16  0.067   22 -0.110    5  0.250
TWINS        36 26 271 222 -0.380 21.750   20 -0.111   20 -0.137   21 -0.157   22 0.4638   27  0.381   23 -0.293   16 -0.021   23 -0.147
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WHITE SOX    36 27 317 258 -0.363 22.479   21 -0.111   21 -0.142   20 -0.130   21 0.4645   15  0.566   20 -0.100   23 -0.160   13  0.044
INDIANS      35 27 260 231 -0.369 22.138   22 -0.139   22 -0.161   23 -0.219   23 0.4600   29  0.147   28 -0.543    9  0.105    4  0.282
RANGERS      22 38 224 312  0.068 31.966   23 -0.182   23 -0.204   22 -0.204   20 0.4890   26  0.414   24 -0.312   21 -0.096   16  0.003
CUBS         34 28 266 247 -0.413 21.124   24 -0.202   24 -0.224   24 -0.273   24 0.4522   10  0.628   21 -0.185   28 -0.361   29 -0.499
CARDINALS    31 30 256 248 -0.397 21.365   25 -0.261   25 -0.285   25 -0.313   25 0.4451   21  0.518   25 -0.328   25 -0.297   19 -0.084
REDS         31 31 243 249 -0.412 21.365   26 -0.291   26 -0.314   26 -0.345   26 0.4413   30  0.094   30 -0.708   13  0.019    2  0.407
BREWERS      29 33 249 271 -0.384 22.190   27 -0.335   27 -0.352   28 -0.401   27 0.4368   23  0.432   27 -0.493   27 -0.308    9  0.111
ROYALS       26 34 248 272 -0.354 22.026   28 -0.375   28 -0.390   27 -0.393   28 0.4313   22  0.438   26 -0.480   26 -0.306   12  0.089
TIGERS       23 35 249 318 -0.340 21.719   29 -0.442   29 -0.445   29 -0.490   29 0.4235    1  0.773   22 -0.256   30 -0.723   17 -0.036
PIRATES      19 41 219 298 -0.386 21.447   30 -0.628   30 -0.634   30 -0.574   30 0.4007   24  0.424   29 -0.673   29 -0.475   14  0.040

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      56 22 450 279  0.156 42.902    1  0.591    1  0.561    1  0.568    1 0.5787   17  0.553    1  0.585    1  0.550   24 -0.188
PADRES       39 27 353 280  0.130 35.806    5  0.279    5  0.266    5  0.302    4 0.5461   19  0.542    6  0.309    4  0.294   15  0.011
GIANTS       29 31 299 297  0.164 33.783   10  0.094   10  0.087   13  0.108    9 0.5257   13  0.585   13  0.155   10  0.060   10  0.110
ROCKIES      26 34 275 353  0.171 34.255   16  0.008   16  0.000   18 -0.051   12 0.5137   20  0.521   18 -0.064   18 -0.038    1  0.530
DIAMONDBACKS 25 35 269 295  0.174 34.195   17 -0.012   17 -0.033   16  0.026   15 0.5111   25  0.417   19 -0.080    7  0.132    6  0.225

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         34 28 266 247 -0.413 21.124   24 -0.202   24 -0.224   24 -0.273   24 0.4522   10  0.628   21 -0.185   28 -0.361   29 -0.499
CARDINALS    31 30 256 248 -0.397 21.365   25 -0.261   25 -0.285   25 -0.313   25 0.4451   21  0.518   25 -0.328   25 -0.297   19 -0.084
REDS         31 31 243 249 -0.412 21.365   26 -0.291   26 -0.314   26 -0.345   26 0.4413   30  0.094   30 -0.708   13  0.019    2  0.407
BREWERS      29 33 249 271 -0.384 22.190   27 -0.335   27 -0.352   28 -0.401   27 0.4368   23  0.432   27 -0.493   27 -0.308    9  0.111
PIRATES      19 41 219 298 -0.386 21.447   30 -0.628   30 -0.634   30 -0.574   30 0.4007   24  0.424   29 -0.673   29 -0.475   14  0.040

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       43 29 405 332  0.231 42.100    3  0.380    3  0.365    2  0.382    3 0.5493    6  0.647    2  0.489    5  0.275   11  0.089
MARLINS      33 32 275 323  0.248 38.897    7  0.214    7  0.200   12  0.108    8 0.5281   12  0.588   12  0.158   11  0.057   26 -0.292
PHILLIES     28 32 306 311  0.235 35.552    9  0.116    9  0.109    7  0.171   11 0.5188    2  0.770    3  0.401   19 -0.059   22 -0.124
METS         26 34 286 308  0.248 35.939   12  0.062   12  0.056   11  0.115   13 0.5115    8  0.635   10  0.210   12  0.020   18 -0.053
NATIONALS    26 34 293 301  0.239 35.676   13  0.062   13  0.051    8  0.138   14 0.5113    3  0.765    5  0.363   20 -0.087   28 -0.314

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATHLETICS    39 28 308 276  0.020 33.842    8  0.182    8  0.169   10  0.118    7 0.5333    5  0.657    7  0.236   15  0.001   30 -0.528
ASTROS       37 36 341 324  0.074 38.521   11  0.070   11  0.067   14  0.095   10 0.5231    4  0.658    8  0.213   17 -0.023   27 -0.302
MARINERS     27 33 254 303  0.076 32.023   18 -0.020   18 -0.038   19 -0.090   17 0.5089    7  0.644   17  0.015   24 -0.194   25 -0.228
ANGELS       26 34 294 321  0.076 31.893   19 -0.044   19 -0.075   17 -0.021   19 0.5063    9  0.628   16  0.067   22 -0.110    5  0.250
RANGERS      22 38 224 312  0.068 31.966   23 -0.182   23 -0.204   22 -0.204   20 0.4890   26  0.414   24 -0.312   21 -0.096   16  0.003

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        36 26 271 222 -0.380 21.750   20 -0.111   20 -0.137   21 -0.157   22 0.4638   27  0.381   23 -0.293   16 -0.021   23 -0.147
WHITE SOX    36 27 317 258 -0.363 22.479   21 -0.111   21 -0.142   20 -0.130   21 0.4645   15  0.566   20 -0.100   23 -0.160   13  0.044
INDIANS      35 27 260 231 -0.369 22.138   22 -0.139   22 -0.161   23 -0.219   23 0.4600   29  0.147   28 -0.543    9  0.105    4  0.282
ROYALS       26 34 248 272 -0.354 22.026   28 -0.375   28 -0.390   27 -0.393   28 0.4313   22  0.438   26 -0.480   26 -0.306   12  0.089
TIGERS       23 35 249 318 -0.340 21.719   29 -0.442   29 -0.445   29 -0.490   29 0.4235    1  0.773   22 -0.256   30 -0.723   17 -0.036

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAYS         51 29 368 310  0.259 47.818    2  0.501    2  0.478    3  0.369    2 0.5633   28  0.358    9  0.213    2  0.524   20 -0.095
YANKEES      37 30 361 303  0.238 39.518    4  0.290    4  0.278    4  0.339    5 0.5413   14  0.569    4  0.371    3  0.306    8  0.182
BLUE JAYS    32 30 305 323  0.260 37.316    6  0.237    6  0.221    6  0.182    6 0.5337   18  0.553   11  0.199    6  0.165    7  0.213
ORIOLES      25 35 274 294  0.258 36.160   14  0.044   14  0.032    9  0.126   16 0.5108   16  0.556   14  0.147    8  0.106   21 -0.103
RED SOX      24 36 292 351  0.280 36.737   15  0.023   15  0.017   15  0.071   18 0.5088   11  0.591   15  0.124   14  0.018    3  0.404

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    169 160 0.514    1  0.263
NL WEST    175 149 0.540    2  0.227
NL EAST    156 161 0.492    3  0.224
AL WEST    151 169 0.472    4 -0.022
AL CENTRAL 156 149 0.511    5 -0.336
NL CENTRAL 144 163 0.469    6 -0.460

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.086 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Jan 13 19:42:38 2021
games through: Tue Oct 27 2020

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