Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY         105  72 850 732  0.112 96.121    1  0.248    1  0.249    2  0.210    1 0.5343   22  0.473    5  0.147    3  0.273   19 -0.068
L.A. ANGELS       101  65 778 715  0.066 87.143    2  0.246    2  0.237    5  0.144    2 0.5324   26  0.429   14  0.042    4  0.245   12  0.074
BOSTON            101  72 891 750  0.105 93.399    3  0.245    3  0.226    1  0.249    3 0.5324   16  0.512    3  0.222    2  0.276    6  0.174
N.Y. YANKEES       89  73 789 727  0.103 87.379    4  0.186    4  0.159    4  0.150    4 0.5225   18  0.507    8  0.118    6  0.182    7  0.113
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  90  76 821 746  0.084 88.358    5  0.140    5  0.134    7  0.138    5 0.5187   25  0.457   12  0.061    5  0.215    3  0.199
TORONTO            85  76 709 609  0.103 86.820    6  0.118    6  0.121    3  0.180    6 0.5180   30  0.281   18 -0.046    1  0.407   18 -0.040
MINNESOTA          88  75 829 745  0.061 85.271    7  0.100    7  0.114    6  0.142    7 0.5156    4  0.700    2  0.295   16 -0.011   28 -0.211
CHICAGO CUBS       97  67 861 691 -0.077 76.763    8  0.089    8  0.108    8  0.114    8 0.5154   12  0.556    6  0.126    9  0.101   11  0.081
PHILADELPHIA      102  73 859 721 -0.068 82.595    9  0.072    9  0.100   10  0.086    9 0.5131   20  0.493   16  0.041    8  0.131   17  0.035
CLEVELAND          81  81 805 761  0.059 84.666   10  0.013   10  0.040    9  0.096   10 0.5060   11  0.572    7  0.124   12  0.069   13  0.057
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MILWAUKEE          91  75 759 704 -0.066 78.564   11  0.012   11  0.038   12  0.020   11 0.5053   21  0.488   17 -0.029   11  0.069   24 -0.125
TEXAS              79  83 901 967  0.071 85.639   12  0.009   12  0.027   16 -0.006   12 0.5045    1  0.881    1  0.335   29 -0.347    1  0.282
N.Y. METS          89  73 799 715 -0.087 75.321   13  0.009   13  0.026   11  0.029   14 0.5030    7  0.620   10  0.103   17 -0.045   26 -0.126
HOUSTON            86  75 712 743 -0.056 76.934   14  0.007   14  0.019   21 -0.049   13 0.5032   24  0.458   23 -0.125   13  0.027   14  0.057
ST. LOUIS          86  76 779 725 -0.071 76.437   15  0.005   15  0.005   14 -0.002   15 0.5013    9  0.589   15  0.042   18 -0.046   23 -0.105
KANSAS CITY        75  87 691 781  0.085 86.587   16  0.002   16 -0.007   19 -0.029   17 0.4987   17  0.510   20 -0.059   15  0.000   22 -0.102
OAKLAND            75  86 646 690  0.071 85.086   17  0.002   17 -0.012   13  0.001   16 0.4996   29  0.336   27 -0.180    7  0.182   25 -0.125
FLORIDA            84  77 770 767 -0.074 75.829   18  0.001   18 -0.015   20 -0.047   18 0.4970    5  0.684   11  0.090   24 -0.184   21 -0.091
DETROIT            74  88 821 857  0.076 86.006   19 -0.001   19 -0.023   15 -0.005   19 0.4967    6  0.669    9  0.116   23 -0.127    4  0.192
L.A. DODGERS       88  82 740 679 -0.092 78.784   20 -0.003   20 -0.034   18 -0.016   20 0.4946   19  0.503   19 -0.051   14  0.020   29 -0.338
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE          67  92 777 861  0.115 86.860   21 -0.017   21 -0.059   17 -0.011   21 0.4933    3  0.722    4  0.164   25 -0.186    9  0.097
ARIZONA            82  80 720 706 -0.103 74.461   22 -0.018   22 -0.063   22 -0.060   22 0.4900   28  0.372   28 -0.211   10  0.091    2  0.206
CINCINNATI         74  88 704 800 -0.046 78.342   23 -0.081   23 -0.109   25 -0.143   23 0.4852   15  0.518   26 -0.165   22 -0.121   10  0.083
COLORADO           74  88 747 822 -0.095 75.138   24 -0.154   24 -0.144   26 -0.147   25 0.4786   10  0.585   22 -0.106   26 -0.188    5  0.176
ATLANTA            72  90 753 778 -0.072 76.539   25 -0.160   25 -0.149   23 -0.100   24 0.4793   13  0.548   21 -0.094   21 -0.106    8  0.103
SAN FRANCISCO      72  90 640 759 -0.090 75.502   26 -0.186   26 -0.162   27 -0.196   27 0.4758   27  0.417   29 -0.308   19 -0.084   15  0.045
SEATTLE            61 101 671 811  0.070 85.740   27 -0.197   27 -0.171   24 -0.112   26 0.4777   14  0.524   24 -0.128   20 -0.095   20 -0.082
PITTSBURGH         67  95 735 884 -0.043 78.556   28 -0.210   28 -0.184   28 -0.199   28 0.4752    2  0.787   13  0.042   30 -0.441   27 -0.175
SAN DIEGO          63  99 637 764 -0.087 75.746   29 -0.237   29 -0.259   29 -0.221   29 0.4631    8  0.617   25 -0.150   28 -0.292   30 -0.423
WASHINGTON         59 102 641 825 -0.053 77.527   30 -0.241   30 -0.275   30 -0.273   30 0.4615   23  0.469   30 -0.339   27 -0.206   16  0.038
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
L.A. DODGERS       88  82 740 679 -0.092 78.784   20 -0.003   20 -0.034   18 -0.016   20 0.4946   19  0.503   19 -0.051   14  0.020   29 -0.338
ARIZONA            82  80 720 706 -0.103 74.461   22 -0.018   22 -0.063   22 -0.060   22 0.4900   28  0.372   28 -0.211   10  0.091    2  0.206
COLORADO           74  88 747 822 -0.095 75.138   24 -0.154   24 -0.144   26 -0.147   25 0.4786   10  0.585   22 -0.106   26 -0.188    5  0.176
SAN FRANCISCO      72  90 640 759 -0.090 75.502   26 -0.186   26 -0.162   27 -0.196   27 0.4758   27  0.417   29 -0.308   19 -0.084   15  0.045
SAN DIEGO          63  99 637 764 -0.087 75.746   29 -0.237   29 -0.259   29 -0.221   29 0.4631    8  0.617   25 -0.150   28 -0.292   30 -0.423

NL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO CUBS       97  67 861 691 -0.077 76.763    8  0.089    8  0.108    8  0.114    8 0.5154   12  0.556    6  0.126    9  0.101   11  0.081
MILWAUKEE          91  75 759 704 -0.066 78.564   11  0.012   11  0.038   12  0.020   11 0.5053   21  0.488   17 -0.029   11  0.069   24 -0.125
HOUSTON            86  75 712 743 -0.056 76.934   14  0.007   14  0.019   21 -0.049   13 0.5032   24  0.458   23 -0.125   13  0.027   14  0.057
ST. LOUIS          86  76 779 725 -0.071 76.437   15  0.005   15  0.005   14 -0.002   15 0.5013    9  0.589   15  0.042   18 -0.046   23 -0.105
CINCINNATI         74  88 704 800 -0.046 78.342   23 -0.081   23 -0.109   25 -0.143   23 0.4852   15  0.518   26 -0.165   22 -0.121   10  0.083
PITTSBURGH         67  95 735 884 -0.043 78.556   28 -0.210   28 -0.184   28 -0.199   28 0.4752    2  0.787   13  0.042   30 -0.441   27 -0.175

NL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA      102  73 859 721 -0.068 82.595    9  0.072    9  0.100   10  0.086    9 0.5131   20  0.493   16  0.041    8  0.131   17  0.035
N.Y. METS          89  73 799 715 -0.087 75.321   13  0.009   13  0.026   11  0.029   14 0.5030    7  0.620   10  0.103   17 -0.045   26 -0.126
FLORIDA            84  77 770 767 -0.074 75.829   18  0.001   18 -0.015   20 -0.047   18 0.4970    5  0.684   11  0.090   24 -0.184   21 -0.091
ATLANTA            72  90 753 778 -0.072 76.539   25 -0.160   25 -0.149   23 -0.100   24 0.4793   13  0.548   21 -0.094   21 -0.106    8  0.103
WASHINGTON         59 102 641 825 -0.053 77.527   30 -0.241   30 -0.275   30 -0.273   30 0.4615   23  0.469   30 -0.339   27 -0.206   16  0.038

AL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
L.A. ANGELS       101  65 778 715  0.066 87.143    2  0.246    2  0.237    5  0.144    2 0.5324   26  0.429   14  0.042    4  0.245   12  0.074
TEXAS              79  83 901 967  0.071 85.639   12  0.009   12  0.027   16 -0.006   12 0.5045    1  0.881    1  0.335   29 -0.347    1  0.282
OAKLAND            75  86 646 690  0.071 85.086   17  0.002   17 -0.012   13  0.001   16 0.4996   29  0.336   27 -0.180    7  0.182   25 -0.125
SEATTLE            61 101 671 811  0.070 85.740   27 -0.197   27 -0.171   24 -0.112   26 0.4777   14  0.524   24 -0.128   20 -0.095   20 -0.082

AL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  90  76 821 746  0.084 88.358    5  0.140    5  0.134    7  0.138    5 0.5187   25  0.457   12  0.061    5  0.215    3  0.199
MINNESOTA          88  75 829 745  0.061 85.271    7  0.100    7  0.114    6  0.142    7 0.5156    4  0.700    2  0.295   16 -0.011   28 -0.211
CLEVELAND          81  81 805 761  0.059 84.666   10  0.013   10  0.040    9  0.096   10 0.5060   11  0.572    7  0.124   12  0.069   13  0.057
KANSAS CITY        75  87 691 781  0.085 86.587   16  0.002   16 -0.007   19 -0.029   17 0.4987   17  0.510   20 -0.059   15  0.000   22 -0.102
DETROIT            74  88 821 857  0.076 86.006   19 -0.001   19 -0.023   15 -0.005   19 0.4967    6  0.669    9  0.116   23 -0.127    4  0.192

AL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY         105  72 850 732  0.112 96.121    1  0.248    1  0.249    2  0.210    1 0.5343   22  0.473    5  0.147    3  0.273   19 -0.068
BOSTON            101  72 891 750  0.105 93.399    3  0.245    3  0.226    1  0.249    3 0.5324   16  0.512    3  0.222    2  0.276    6  0.174
N.Y. YANKEES       89  73 789 727  0.103 87.379    4  0.186    4  0.159    4  0.150    4 0.5225   18  0.507    8  0.118    6  0.182    7  0.113
TORONTO            85  76 709 609  0.103 86.820    6  0.118    6  0.121    3  0.180    6 0.5180   30  0.281   18 -0.046    1  0.407   18 -0.040
BALTIMORE          67  92 777 861  0.115 86.860   21 -0.017   21 -0.059   17 -0.011   21 0.4933    3  0.722    4  0.164   25 -0.186    9  0.097

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    447 385 0.537    1  0.197
AL CENTRAL 408 407 0.501    2  0.087
AL WEST    316 335 0.485    3  0.009
NL CENTRAL 501 476 0.513    4 -0.055
NL EAST    406 415 0.495    5 -0.077
NL WEST    379 439 0.463    6 -0.162

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.105 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:46:59 2020
games through: Mon Oct 27 2008

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