Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         17 10 167 120  0.179 15.309    1  0.132    1  0.126    1  0.174    1 0.5557    2  0.861    1  0.595   26 -0.247    9  0.249 P
PADRES       17  9 103  75  0.082 13.635    2  0.112    2  0.114    2  0.120    2 0.5416   27  0.002   23 -0.214    1  0.454   28 -0.388 P
GIANTS       17 10 129 103  0.125 14.830    3  0.110    3  0.113    3  0.106    3 0.5406   20  0.387   14  0.070    8  0.141   24 -0.203 P
METS         18  8 109  74 -0.059 12.329    4  0.101    4  0.104    6  0.092    4 0.5370   28  0.000   24 -0.244    2  0.427   22 -0.184 P
DODGERS      16 10 116 111  0.060 13.575    5  0.082    5  0.088    9  0.067    5 0.5348   19  0.407   17  0.048   11  0.086   13  0.019 P
TIGERS       15 10 112  82  0.035 12.752    6  0.059    6  0.065    5  0.094    8 0.5201   18  0.427   12  0.092   10  0.095   19 -0.088 P
YANKEES      15 11 139 110  0.053 13.525    7  0.055    7  0.061    4  0.095    7 0.5215    8  0.608    6  0.259   15 -0.070    7  0.339 P
RANGERS      15 11  82  95  0.040 13.541    8  0.053    8  0.059   14 -0.009    6 0.5263   26  0.003   26 -0.342    5  0.325   27 -0.350 P
DIAMONDBACKS 14 12 137 126  0.098 13.993    9  0.041    9  0.046   10  0.065   10 0.5170   15  0.505   10  0.134   13 -0.004   18 -0.060 P
GUARDIANS    14 10  96 101 -0.055 11.593   10  0.032   10  0.036   19 -0.029   11 0.5138    6  0.673    9  0.198   27 -0.256   29 -0.513 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS     14 12 117 117  0.030 13.406   11  0.027   11  0.030   12  0.006    9 0.5171    7  0.672    7  0.233   24 -0.222   25 -0.311 P
ASTROS       13 12  92  83  0.008 12.633   12  0.015   12  0.015   11  0.031   12 0.5088   23  0.227   22 -0.136    7  0.198   16 -0.015 P
REDS         13 13 136 104  0.038 13.365   13  0.009   13  0.007    7  0.074   13 0.5066    9  0.578    8  0.211   14 -0.062   14 -0.010 P
BREWERS      13 14 134 122  0.082 14.350   14  0.008   14  0.006    8  0.072   16 0.4998    5  0.743    3  0.370   25 -0.226   26 -0.315 P
PHILLIES     13 13 111 119  0.012 13.272   15  0.006   15  0.004   16 -0.020   14 0.5024   21  0.349   21 -0.088   12  0.047    6  0.349 P
ATHLETICS    13 13 115 131  0.020 13.353   16  0.005   16  0.002   17 -0.023   15 0.5002   11  0.561   11  0.097   21 -0.143    3  0.407 P
BLUE JAYS    13 13  92 106 -0.061 12.533   17 -0.009   18 -0.016   21 -0.049   17 0.4986   30 -0.096   30 -0.450    3  0.351    2  0.411 P
MARLINS      12 13 114 131 -0.005 12.623   18 -0.010   17 -0.016   20 -0.049   18 0.4948    3  0.820    4  0.328   29 -0.426   12  0.024 P
ANGELS       12 13  99 123 -0.009 12.606   19 -0.011   19 -0.017   27 -0.074   19 0.4921    4  0.783    5  0.265   28 -0.413   23 -0.195 P
ROYALS       13 14  86 100 -0.055 13.199   20 -0.018   20 -0.025   26 -0.071   21 0.4873   25  0.019   27 -0.393    6  0.251   17 -0.046 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       11 14 100 106  0.035 12.972   21 -0.020   21 -0.028   15 -0.010   20 0.4902   14  0.522   13  0.074   17 -0.095   21 -0.156 P
RED SOX      14 13 124 128 -0.164 11.889   22 -0.022   22 -0.031   24 -0.065   22 0.4847   12  0.556   16  0.051   22 -0.181    5  0.369 P
NATIONALS    12 14 110 122 -0.099 12.122   23 -0.041   23 -0.051   25 -0.067   23 0.4831   16  0.489   19 -0.012   20 -0.121   11  0.095 P
RAYS         12 14 110 101 -0.129 11.775   24 -0.046   24 -0.056   18 -0.026   25 0.4782   13  0.524   15  0.060   19 -0.113   20 -0.146 P
CARDINALS    11 15 123 120 -0.033 12.747   25 -0.049   25 -0.059   13 -0.002   26 0.4777    1  0.894    2  0.454   30 -0.459   30 -0.573 P
ORIOLES      10 14 103 130 -0.057 11.649   26 -0.052   26 -0.063   28 -0.088   24 0.4812   10  0.562   18  0.034   23 -0.209    4  0.399 P
PIRATES      11 16  96 110 -0.028 13.387   27 -0.058   27 -0.069   22 -0.061   27 0.4752   29 -0.075   29 -0.448    4  0.326    8  0.256 P
TWINS        10 16  96 107 -0.065 12.502   28 -0.080   28 -0.089   23 -0.064   28 0.4587   17  0.455   20 -0.040   16 -0.088   10  0.120 P
WHITE SOX     6 20  83 114 -0.104 12.245   29 -0.213   29 -0.197   29 -0.146   29 0.4269   24  0.108   28 -0.405    9  0.112   15 -0.013 P
ROCKIES       4 21  84 144  0.027 13.195   30 -0.219   30 -0.203   30 -0.187   30 0.4264   22  0.329   25 -0.271   18 -0.103    1  0.527 P

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       17  9 103  75  0.082 13.635    2  0.112    2  0.114    2  0.120    2 0.5416   27  0.002   23 -0.214    1  0.454   28 -0.388 P
GIANTS       17 10 129 103  0.125 14.830    3  0.110    3  0.113    3  0.106    3 0.5406   20  0.387   14  0.070    8  0.141   24 -0.203 P
DODGERS      16 10 116 111  0.060 13.575    5  0.082    5  0.088    9  0.067    5 0.5348   19  0.407   17  0.048   11  0.086   13  0.019 P
DIAMONDBACKS 14 12 137 126  0.098 13.993    9  0.041    9  0.046   10  0.065   10 0.5170   15  0.505   10  0.134   13 -0.004   18 -0.060 P
ROCKIES       4 21  84 144  0.027 13.195   30 -0.219   30 -0.203   30 -0.187   30 0.4264   22  0.329   25 -0.271   18 -0.103    1  0.527 P

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         17 10 167 120  0.179 15.309    1  0.132    1  0.126    1  0.174    1 0.5557    2  0.861    1  0.595   26 -0.247    9  0.249 P
REDS         13 13 136 104  0.038 13.365   13  0.009   13  0.007    7  0.074   13 0.5066    9  0.578    8  0.211   14 -0.062   14 -0.010 P
BREWERS      13 14 134 122  0.082 14.350   14  0.008   14  0.006    8  0.072   16 0.4998    5  0.743    3  0.370   25 -0.226   26 -0.315 P
CARDINALS    11 15 123 120 -0.033 12.747   25 -0.049   25 -0.059   13 -0.002   26 0.4777    1  0.894    2  0.454   30 -0.459   30 -0.573 P
PIRATES      11 16  96 110 -0.028 13.387   27 -0.058   27 -0.069   22 -0.061   27 0.4752   29 -0.075   29 -0.448    4  0.326    8  0.256 P

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         18  8 109  74 -0.059 12.329    4  0.101    4  0.104    6  0.092    4 0.5370   28  0.000   24 -0.244    2  0.427   22 -0.184 P
PHILLIES     13 13 111 119  0.012 13.272   15  0.006   15  0.004   16 -0.020   14 0.5024   21  0.349   21 -0.088   12  0.047    6  0.349 P
MARLINS      12 13 114 131 -0.005 12.623   18 -0.010   17 -0.016   20 -0.049   18 0.4948    3  0.820    4  0.328   29 -0.426   12  0.024 P
BRAVES       11 14 100 106  0.035 12.972   21 -0.020   21 -0.028   15 -0.010   20 0.4902   14  0.522   13  0.074   17 -0.095   21 -0.156 P
NATIONALS    12 14 110 122 -0.099 12.122   23 -0.041   23 -0.051   25 -0.067   23 0.4831   16  0.489   19 -0.012   20 -0.121   11  0.095 P

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      15 11  82  95  0.040 13.541    8  0.053    8  0.059   14 -0.009    6 0.5263   26  0.003   26 -0.342    5  0.325   27 -0.350 P
MARINERS     14 12 117 117  0.030 13.406   11  0.027   11  0.030   12  0.006    9 0.5171    7  0.672    7  0.233   24 -0.222   25 -0.311 P
ASTROS       13 12  92  83  0.008 12.633   12  0.015   12  0.015   11  0.031   12 0.5088   23  0.227   22 -0.136    7  0.198   16 -0.015 P
ATHLETICS    13 13 115 131  0.020 13.353   16  0.005   16  0.002   17 -0.023   15 0.5002   11  0.561   11  0.097   21 -0.143    3  0.407 P
ANGELS       12 13  99 123 -0.009 12.606   19 -0.011   19 -0.017   27 -0.074   19 0.4921    4  0.783    5  0.265   28 -0.413   23 -0.195 P

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       15 10 112  82  0.035 12.752    6  0.059    6  0.065    5  0.094    8 0.5201   18  0.427   12  0.092   10  0.095   19 -0.088 P
GUARDIANS    14 10  96 101 -0.055 11.593   10  0.032   10  0.036   19 -0.029   11 0.5138    6  0.673    9  0.198   27 -0.256   29 -0.513 P
ROYALS       13 14  86 100 -0.055 13.199   20 -0.018   20 -0.025   26 -0.071   21 0.4873   25  0.019   27 -0.393    6  0.251   17 -0.046 P
TWINS        10 16  96 107 -0.065 12.502   28 -0.080   28 -0.089   23 -0.064   28 0.4587   17  0.455   20 -0.040   16 -0.088   10  0.120 P
WHITE SOX     6 20  83 114 -0.104 12.245   29 -0.213   29 -0.197   29 -0.146   29 0.4269   24  0.108   28 -0.405    9  0.112   15 -0.013 P

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      15 11 139 110  0.053 13.525    7  0.055    7  0.061    4  0.095    7 0.5215    8  0.608    6  0.259   15 -0.070    7  0.339 P
BLUE JAYS    13 13  92 106 -0.061 12.533   17 -0.009   18 -0.016   21 -0.049   17 0.4986   30 -0.096   30 -0.450    3  0.351    2  0.411 P
RED SOX      14 13 124 128 -0.164 11.889   22 -0.022   22 -0.031   24 -0.065   22 0.4847   12  0.556   16  0.051   22 -0.181    5  0.369 P
RAYS         12 14 110 101 -0.129 11.775   24 -0.046   24 -0.056   18 -0.026   25 0.4782   13  0.524   15  0.060   19 -0.113   20 -0.146 P
ORIOLES      10 14 103 130 -0.057 11.649   26 -0.052   26 -0.063   28 -0.088   24 0.4812   10  0.562   18  0.034   23 -0.209    4  0.399 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 65 68 0.489    1  0.141
NL WEST    68 62 0.523    2  0.100
NL EAST    66 62 0.516    3 -0.028
AL WEST    67 61 0.523    4 -0.035
AL EAST    64 65 0.496    5 -0.072
AL CENTRAL 58 70 0.453    6 -0.114

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.176 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.019 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Apr 26 05:30:05 2025
games through: Fri Apr 25 2025

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