Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Harvard                11   0   0  257   19  1.053    1  2.351    1  2.285    1  2.068    1 0.6758    1 0.7242    1   1250  0.113  1.876  2.260
Pennsylvania           12   1   0  398   32  1.017    2  2.149    2  1.846    2  2.068    3 0.6384    2 0.6750    2   1175  0.517  2.210  1.926
Princeton              11   0   1  266    5  0.695    3  2.087    3  1.727    3  1.752    2 0.6528    3 0.6744    3   1175 -0.622  1.118  2.387
Yale                    9   2   0  146   34  0.879    4  1.913    4  1.452    5  1.317    4 0.6169    4 0.6207    5   1058 -0.104  0.973  1.661
Michigan               10   0   0  205   26 -0.303    5  1.810    5  1.218   11  0.491    5 0.6001    5 0.6113    4   1064  0.258  0.411  0.570
Cornell                10   2   0  296   29  0.874    6  1.721    6  1.018    4  1.416    7 0.5677    9 0.5721    6   1025  0.247  1.327  1.504
Army                    3   2   1   90   51  0.885    7  1.680    7  0.942    9  0.900   10 0.5506   16 0.5038   14    587  0.805  1.323  0.476
Wesleyan                7   3   0  215   54  0.694    8  1.588    8  0.733    7  1.139    8 0.5648    7 0.5928   10    792  0.285  1.081  1.197
Navy                    7   1   0  130   56 -0.395    9  1.584    9  0.719   15 -0.011    6 0.5787   12 0.5375    9    809  0.622  0.230 -0.252
Carlisle                6   4   0  203   99  0.873   10  1.558   10  0.672    8  0.928    9 0.5518    8 0.5902   16    509  0.858  1.408  0.448
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Wisconsin               9   1   0  318   17  0.094   11  1.556   11  0.658    6  1.218   12 0.5399   14 0.5175    8    877  0.267  1.145  1.291
Brown                   6   4   0  135   96  0.744   12  1.467   12  0.475   12  0.467   14 0.5248   13 0.5254   11    786  0.505  0.599  0.335
Chicago                14   2   1  289   48  0.126   13  1.360   13  0.266   10  0.749   13 0.5398   10 0.5523    7    953  0.361  0.754  0.743
Dickinson               8   2   0  211   86 -0.588   14  1.295   14  0.151   16 -0.393   15 0.5230   17 0.4830   13    676  0.957  0.193 -0.980
Penn State              6   4   0  174   91  0.182   15  1.192   15 -0.212   13  0.394   11 0.5503    6 0.5993   18    381  0.578  0.593  0.195
Dartmouth               5   6   0  205  136  0.299   16  1.038   19 -0.466   14  0.312   16 0.5019   11 0.5385   21    250  1.052  1.006 -0.382
Amherst                 4   5   1  146  223 -0.242   17  0.972   16 -0.407   25 -0.857   17 0.4897   15 0.5134   22    174  1.225  0.044 -1.757
Bowdoin                 8   3   1  204   90 -0.670   18  0.953   17 -0.440   17 -0.397   18 0.4827   19 0.4527   15    523  0.804  0.026 -0.820
Northwestern            9   4   1  229  123 -0.525   19  0.949   18 -0.446   19 -0.548   22 0.4382   29 0.3378   12    696  0.936  0.016 -1.112
M.I.T.                  3   1   1   42   16 -1.300   20  0.829   20 -0.651   26 -0.890   23 0.4340   30 0.3302   27      0 -0.233 -1.316 -0.465
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Beloit                  4   5   1  100   95 -0.298   21  0.733   21 -0.815   23 -0.724   28 0.4098   27 0.3427   20    300  0.312 -0.759 -0.688
Bucknell                4   4   3   68  103 -0.800   22  0.699   22 -0.865   28 -1.104   24 0.4333   25 0.3551   25     31 -0.070 -1.425 -0.783
Franklin & Marshall     4   4   2   75  152 -0.883   23  0.640   23 -0.931   29 -1.241   20 0.4499   20 0.3968   19    374  0.436 -1.171 -1.311
Lehigh                  3   6   1   49  106 -0.345   24  0.586   26 -1.014   20 -0.554   19 0.4504   23 0.3746   26     19 -0.161 -0.935 -0.174
Lafayette               3   8   0   39  191 -0.412   25  0.535   24 -0.987   27 -1.063   21 0.4459   22 0.3872   28      0 -0.028 -1.356 -0.770
Trinity (Connecticut)   2   5   2   35  136 -0.716   26  0.520   25 -1.012   31 -1.434   30 0.3917   28 0.3397   29      0 -0.351 -1.928 -0.939
Purdue                  3   3   0   34   33 -0.784   27  0.495   27 -1.059   24 -0.761   27 0.4103   26 0.3460   17    490 -0.038 -1.061 -0.461
Williams                3   8   0   52  117 -0.027   28  0.468   28 -1.102   18 -0.458   26 0.4151   21 0.3873   30      0 -0.071 -0.780 -0.136
Illinois                4   5   0   83   78 -0.600   29  0.406   29 -1.207   22 -0.656   25 0.4292   18 0.4657   23    151  0.302 -0.700 -0.612
Minnesota               4   5   0   92   73 -0.705   30  0.378   30 -1.244   21 -0.591   29 0.4068   24 0.3577   24    125  0.467 -0.493 -0.688
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Tufts                   1   9   0   39  150 -0.808   31  0.000   31 -1.981   30 -1.376   31 0.3278   31 0.1666   31      0  0.452 -1.292 -1.460
UNRANKED               22 106   8  414 2674 -0.541      -1.000      -1.000      -1.445      0.4019      0.3825           0  0.220 -1.555 -1.336


Independent: strength=0.000 (#1)
                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Harvard                11   0   0  257   19  1.053    1  2.351    1  2.285    1  2.068    1 0.6758    1 0.7242    1   1250  0.113  1.876  2.260
Pennsylvania           12   1   0  398   32  1.017    2  2.149    2  1.846    2  2.068    3 0.6384    2 0.6750    2   1175  0.517  2.210  1.926
Princeton              11   0   1  266    5  0.695    3  2.087    3  1.727    3  1.752    2 0.6528    3 0.6744    3   1175 -0.622  1.118  2.387
Yale                    9   2   0  146   34  0.879    4  1.913    4  1.452    5  1.317    4 0.6169    4 0.6207    5   1058 -0.104  0.973  1.661
Cornell                10   2   0  296   29  0.874    6  1.721    6  1.018    4  1.416    7 0.5677    9 0.5721    6   1025  0.247  1.327  1.504
Army                    3   2   1   90   51  0.885    7  1.680    7  0.942    9  0.900   10 0.5506   16 0.5038   14    587  0.805  1.323  0.476
Wesleyan                7   3   0  215   54  0.694    8  1.588    8  0.733    7  1.139    8 0.5648    7 0.5928   10    792  0.285  1.081  1.197
Navy                    7   1   0  130   56 -0.395    9  1.584    9  0.719   15 -0.011    6 0.5787   12 0.5375    9    809  0.622  0.230 -0.252
Carlisle                6   4   0  203   99  0.873   10  1.558   10  0.672    8  0.928    9 0.5518    8 0.5902   16    509  0.858  1.408  0.448
Brown                   6   4   0  135   96  0.744   12  1.467   12  0.475   12  0.467   14 0.5248   13 0.5254   11    786  0.505  0.599  0.335
Dickinson               8   2   0  211   86 -0.588   14  1.295   14  0.151   16 -0.393   15 0.5230   17 0.4830   13    676  0.957  0.193 -0.980
Penn State              6   4   0  174   91  0.182   15  1.192   15 -0.212   13  0.394   11 0.5503    6 0.5993   18    381  0.578  0.593  0.195
Dartmouth               5   6   0  205  136  0.299   16  1.038   19 -0.466   14  0.312   16 0.5019   11 0.5385   21    250  1.052  1.006 -0.382
Amherst                 4   5   1  146  223 -0.242   17  0.972   16 -0.407   25 -0.857   17 0.4897   15 0.5134   22    174  1.225  0.044 -1.757
Bowdoin                 8   3   1  204   90 -0.670   18  0.953   17 -0.440   17 -0.397   18 0.4827   19 0.4527   15    523  0.804  0.026 -0.820
M.I.T.                  3   1   1   42   16 -1.300   20  0.829   20 -0.651   26 -0.890   23 0.4340   30 0.3302   27      0 -0.233 -1.316 -0.465
Beloit                  4   5   1  100   95 -0.298   21  0.733   21 -0.815   23 -0.724   28 0.4098   27 0.3427   20    300  0.312 -0.759 -0.688
Bucknell                4   4   3   68  103 -0.800   22  0.699   22 -0.865   28 -1.104   24 0.4333   25 0.3551   25     31 -0.070 -1.425 -0.783
Franklin & Marshall     4   4   2   75  152 -0.883   23  0.640   23 -0.931   29 -1.241   20 0.4499   20 0.3968   19    374  0.436 -1.171 -1.311
Lehigh                  3   6   1   49  106 -0.345   24  0.586   26 -1.014   20 -0.554   19 0.4504   23 0.3746   26     19 -0.161 -0.935 -0.174
Lafayette               3   8   0   39  191 -0.412   25  0.535   24 -0.987   27 -1.063   21 0.4459   22 0.3872   28      0 -0.028 -1.356 -0.770
Trinity (Connecticut)   2   5   2   35  136 -0.716   26  0.520   25 -1.012   31 -1.434   30 0.3917   28 0.3397   29      0 -0.351 -1.928 -0.939
Williams                3   8   0   52  117 -0.027   28  0.468   28 -1.102   18 -0.458   26 0.4151   21 0.3873   30      0 -0.071 -0.780 -0.136
Tufts                   1   9   0   39  150 -0.808   31  0.000   31 -1.981   30 -1.376   31 0.3278   31 0.1666   31      0  0.452 -1.292 -1.460

Western: strength=-0.108 (#2)
                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Michigan               10   0   0  205   26 -0.303    5  1.810    5  1.218   11  0.491    5 0.6001    5 0.6113    4   1064  0.258  0.411  0.570
Wisconsin               9   1   0  318   17  0.094   11  1.556   11  0.658    6  1.218   12 0.5399   14 0.5175    8    877  0.267  1.145  1.291
Chicago                14   2   1  289   48  0.126   13  1.360   13  0.266   10  0.749   13 0.5398   10 0.5523    7    953  0.361  0.754  0.743
Northwestern            9   4   1  229  123 -0.525   19  0.949   18 -0.446   19 -0.548   22 0.4382   29 0.3378   12    696  0.936  0.016 -1.112
Purdue                  3   3   0   34   33 -0.784   27  0.495   27 -1.059   24 -0.761   27 0.4103   26 0.3460   17    490 -0.038 -1.061 -0.461
Illinois                4   5   0   83   78 -0.600   29  0.406   29 -1.207   22 -0.656   25 0.4292   18 0.4657   23    151  0.302 -0.700 -0.612
Minnesota               4   5   0   92   73 -0.705   30  0.378   30 -1.244   21 -0.591   29 0.4068   24 0.3577   24    125  0.467 -0.493 -0.688

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Independent 140  89  14 0.605    1  0.000
Western      53  20   2 0.720    2 -0.108

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.236 points in main ratings
     0.025 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:04 2007

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